Groningen: a province with two faces

Huub Hanssen

Province Groningen

Provinces Groningen en Drenthe, seperated in six regions

Figure Shrinkage and growth in number of inhabitants, 2005-2030

Figure Shrinkage and growth in number of households,2005-2030

The region East-Groningen/Delfzijl is less prosperous then the region Groningen-Assen:

• Less economic growth

• More unemployment, less workforce participation end less income

• Less level of education

• Less house prices

• Shrinkage of population in stead of growth

• Shrinkage of the basis of level of facilities (for exempal: education-facilities)

The divide has a structural nature:

• The divide in population growth, employment, unemployment, workforce participation, income and level of education has become more defined over the past decade

• The divide will become more defined in the future

Economic growth to date and in the future

• The employment structure in the Groningen-Assen region is substantially stronger than in the East-Groningen/Delfzijl region

• In the future employment will be more concentrated in the Groningen-Assen region.

Figure Employment growth per municipality, 1996-2006

Figure Unemployment per municipality, 2005

Living conditions in shrinking rural areas continue to lag behind

• Increasing vacancy rates on the housing market

• Concentration of groups with social problems

• Quality of living enviroment is decreasing

• In addition: shrinkage of the basis of level of facilities (For example: education facilities)

Figuur Ontwikkeling basisschoolbevolking per postcodegebied (2005-2030)

The housing market in the future in the regions Delfzijl/Oost-Groningen• Growth of houshold 2007-2014: 1200• Building-plans of municipalities 2007-2014:

11300

Conclusions:1. Great danger for growth of vacancy (max.

10.000; 11% of total housing stock)2. A regional implementation strategie is

neccesary, with priority for restructurering of the housing market.

The influence of spatial policy

Calculations with the Primos-model shows that the transfer of the building production of 9000 homes from Groningen-Assen to the Delfzijl/East Groningen regions wil result in:

1. significant migration losses (9000 persons) from Groningen-Assen to these regions;

2. 4500 homes of extra vacancy on the short therm on top of the earlier predicted vacancy of 10.000

3. 9000 of extra vacancy on the long therm once there is sufficient supply in the region Groningen-Assen (max. 19000 in total; 21% of total housing stock)