El Ethanino

Are not anti-ethanolDon’t believe in ethanol subsidiesDon’t believe we “NEED” a larger mandateWere told “NO” when we asked for an “off-ramp” if there was a short corn cropWant the VEETC and tariff eliminated over time

Are asking for the ability to compete on a level playing field with the ethanol industry for that bushel of corn

Food inflation? We’re just getting warmed up.Is this what America wants?

Source: USDA

Wheat 2006/07 110.7

2007/08 109.6

2008/09 117.5

Corn 2006/07 93.1

2007/08 99.1

2008/09 92.3

Monthly Nearby CBOT Wheat Futures/Nearby Corn Futures

All-time low was 93% in Jun 1996

June 04, 2008SRW at the Gulf is $5.90 and corn is $6.47 (SRW at 57 cents below corn).

SRW at St. Louis is $5.23 (truck) and corn is $6.01 (SRW at 78 cents below corn).

CBOT WN is $7.58 and CN is $6.20 (SRW at $1.38 over corn).

Do you think that ethanol plants in parts of Cornbelt (IL, MO, OH, IN) would consider switching their feedstock to SRW?

Growth in Ethanol Capacity Projected To Come to a Slow Dramatically by End of 2008/09

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

Gallons (Mln).

Projected CapacityActual Capacity

Sources : RFA, press reports, company filings, and interviews with industry contacts.

Aug 2006 = 4,301 mln. glnsAug 2006 = 5,388 mln. glns. Aug 2007 = 7,091 mln. glns. Aug 2008 = 11,432 mln. glns. Aug 2009 = 14,688 mln. glns.

Very Little New Ethanol Construction Expected

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

Gallons (Mln).

New CapacityStarting Construction

Sources : RFA, press reports, company filings, and interviews with industry contacts.

The global “credit crisis” came at just the right time to stop the US ethanol industry from seriously overbuilding capacity relative to the widely referenced “market share”/2007 RFS mandate of 10% of US gasoline supply/15 bln glns RFS.

In early-Aug 2007, the industry was well on its way to overbuilding the US ethanol industry much as the US biodiesel industry has already done (and continues to do so even today – biodiesel capacity utilization is less than 25%).

The Global “Credit Crisis”Stopped Ethanol Expansion

$1.25 $1.50 $1.75 $2.00 $2.25 $2.50 $2.75 $3.00 $3.25 $3.50$2.00 0.42 0.67 0.92 1.17 1.42 1.67 1.92 2.17 2.42 2.67$2.25 0.35 0.60 0.85 1.10 1.35 1.60 1.85 2.10 2.35 2.60$2.50 0.28 0.53 0.78 1.03 1.28 1.53 1.78 2.03 2.28 2.53$2.75 0.22 0.47 0.72 0.97 1.22 1.47 1.72 1.97 2.22 2.47$3.00 0.15 0.40 0.65 0.90 1.15 1.40 1.65 1.90 2.15 2.40$3.25 0.08 0.33 0.58 0.83 1.08 1.33 1.58 1.83 2.08 2.33$3.50 0.02 0.27 0.52 0.77 1.02 1.27 1.52 1.77 2.02 2.27$3.75 (0.05) 0.20 0.45 0.70 0.95 1.20 1.45 1.70 1.95 2.20$4.00 (0.12) 0.13 $0.38 0.63 0.88 1.13 1.38 1.63 1.88 2.13$4.25 (0.18) 0.07 0.32 0.57 0.82 1.07 1.32 1.57 1.82 2.07$4.50 (0.25) (0.00) 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00$4.75 (0.32) (0.07) 0.18 0.43 0.68 0.93 1.18 1.43 1.43 1.93$5.00 (0.39) (0.14) 0.11 0.36 0.61 0.86 1.11 1.36 1.61 1.86$5.25 (0.45) (0.20) 0.05 0.30 0.55 0.80 1.05 1.30 1.55 1.80$5.50 (0.52) (0.27) (0.02) 0.23 0.48 0.73 0.98 1.23 1.48 1.73$5.75 (0.59) (0.34) (0.09) 0.16 0.41 0.66 0.91 1.16 1.41 1.66$6.00 (0.65) (0.40) (0.15) 0.10 0.35 $0.60 0.85 1.10 1.35 1.60$6.25 (0.72) (0.47) (0.22) 0.03 0.28 0.53 0.78 1.03 1.28 1.53$6.50 (0.79) (0.54) (0.29) (0.04) 0.21 0.46 0.71 0.96 1.21 1.46

Approximate cash flow requirement including labor is $.40 to $.50/galNatural gas price set per cu. ft. (projected range at $8.00 to $10.00) $9.00DDG % price of corn 0.85

Co

rn P

rice

Ethanol Price

Corn Belt ModelEthanol Gross Margins - Cents per Gallon

We are now seeing “Cost-Push” crop price pressures thatare being added to the “Demand-Pull” forces that are already atwork in the market.

US went from being the world’s largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizer in the 1980s to becoming the largest importer in the 1990s. US production declined during the 1990s as the price of domestic natural gas increased. Imports of nitrogen—mainly from Trinidad and Tobago, Canada, and Russia, all with lower natural gas prices—quickly filled the gap. About 62% of nitrogen and 88% of potash consumed in the US in 2006 was from imports. Because of limited domestic production capacity, increased fertilizer demand will have to be met largely by imports.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FertilizerTrade/Summary.htm

Russia placed a 9% export tax on fertilizer. 90% of mineral fertilizers are exported. 20 years ago, only 20% exported (Reuters Mar 6, 2008).

China virtually shut down its urea exports by raising the export tax to 135% (it was 35%). (Dow Jones Apr 17, 2008). China capped prices of fertilizers and alos on the “spread” between producer and retail prices. (Reuters May 8).

Brazil threatens to nationalize fertilizer mines in order to “bring down costs”. (Reuters May 20). Bunge will invest US$1.96 bln to expand phosphorous output in Brazil. (Reuters May 26).

India expects to spend $US 22.5 bln (about 2.5% of GDP) on subsiding fertilizer for55 mln farmers. Costs are approaching what the government spends on its military. (Bloomberg May 21).

Pakistan’s wheat crop down due to declining application of high priced fertilizer. (International Business Times Apr 08)

CONTACT

Bill Tierney, PhD - wtierney@lmc-dc.comHead LMC North American ResearchLMC International Ltd.888 16th St., NW, Suite 800Washington, DC   20006(202) 349-9860 - - Office

LMC International Ltd (www.lmc.co.uk) is an independent economic and business consulting firm providing economic research and consulting services for a broad range of industries related to agricultural commodities, foods, biofuels, industrial materials, and their end-markets.  Founded in 1980, LMC is entirely independent and does not trade, broker, offer finance, or produce any commodity.  This insures that the firm’s analysis and advice is objective.

www.lmc.co.uk (to see more information about the firm)

US Fertilizer Price Index(1990-92 = 100)

255075

100125150175200225250275300325350375400425450475500525

% of 1990-92

Source: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FertilizerUse/Tables/Table8.xls

From 1973-75 the fertilizer price index increased 112%

From 2006 to 2007 the fertilizer price index increased 18% Prices where most

farmers bought their fertilizer for the 2008 crops

Prices for the 2009 crop?

Prices for the 2010 crop?

CALENDAR YEAR AVERAGESMONTHLY AVERAGES

Mar-91Apr-91

May-91Jun-91Jul-91

Aug-91Sep-91Oct-91Nov-91Dec-91Jan-92Feb-92Mar-92Apr-92

May-92Jun-92Jul-92

Aug-92Sep-92Oct-92Nov-92Dec-92Jan-93Feb-93Mar-93Apr-93

May-93Jun-93Jul-93

Aug-93Sep-93Oct-93Nov-93Dec-93Jan-94Feb-94Mar-94Apr-94

May-94Jun-94Jul-94

Aug-94Sep-94Oct-94Nov-94Dec-94

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Mar-91

Mar-92

Mar-93

Mar-94

Mar-95

Mar-96

Mar-97

Mar-98

Mar-99

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Soybean-to-Corn Ratio, actual

Soybean-to-Corn Ratio, forecast by historical seasonality

Soybean-to-Wheat Ratio, actual

Soybean-to-Wheat Ratio, forecast by historical seasonality

US SOYBEAN-TO-CORN & SOYBEAN-TO-WHEAT FARM PRICE RATIOS

Ratio

Farm price ratio of soybeans to corn for next March neutral, but ratio of soybeans to wheat favors wheat.

PRX_B_US_BA, GTB-07-09, Sep-28-07

Returns for Wheat, Corn & Soybeans in the "Heartland" : IL, IN, IA, KY, MN, MO, & OH

-150-125-100-75-50-25

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$/A

cre

Pla

nte

d

Corn

Soy

Wheat

Corn Proj

Soy Proj

Wheat Proj

s

195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

200000

225000

250000

275000

300000

50-51 55-56 60-61 65-66 70-71 75-76 80-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16

CRP_actual

Otherfeedgrains_actualWheat_actual

OtherOilseeds_actual

Soybeans_actual

Corn_actual

Corn + Soybeans"Max"

PRX_US_APanal, GTB-07-09rev, Sep-28-07

US MAJOR CROPS PLANTED AREA

Thousand acres

Blue Sky Model constrains the sum of corn and soybean planted area to a maximum of about 161 million acres (with only 1-2 million acres leaving CRP in near-term).

YearYear Total RFSTotal RFS Corn Corn EligibleEligible

Total Total bushels of bushels of

corncorn

Advanced Advanced BiofuelsBiofuels

CellulosicCellulosic BiodieselBiodiesel

20082008 9.009.00 9.009.00 3.213.21 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.0020092009 11.1011.10 10.5010.50 3.753.75 0.600.60 0.000.00 0.500.5020102010 12.9512.95 12.0012.00 4.294.29 0.950.95 0.100.10 0.650.6520112011 13.9513.95 12.6012.60 4.504.50 1.351.35 0.250.25 0.800.8020122012 15.2015.20 13.2013.20 4.714.71 2.002.00 0.500.50 1.001.0020132013 16.5516.55 13.8013.80 4.934.93 2.752.75 1.001.00

20142014 18.1518.15 14.4014.40 5.145.14 3.753.75 1.751.75

20152015 20.5020.50 15.0015.00 5.365.36 5.505.50 3.003.00

20162016 22.2522.25 15.0015.00 5.365.36 7.257.25 4.254.25

20172017 24.0024.00 15.0015.00 5.365.36 9.009.00 5.505.50

20182018 26.0026.00 15.0015.00 5.365.36 11.0011.00 7.007.00

20192019 28.0028.00 15.0015.00 5.365.36 13.0013.00 8.508.50

20202020 30.0030.00 15.0015.00 5.365.36 15.0015.00 10.5010.50

20212021 33.0033.00 15.0015.00 5.365.36 18.0018.00 13.5013.50

20222022 36.0036.00 15.0015.00 5.365.36 21.0021.00 16.0016.00

Global Soybean ConsumptionGlobal Soybean Consumption1990 – 2006 & Trend to 20161990 – 2006 & Trend to 2016

Additional Brazilian Crop Needed in a DecadeAdditional Brazilian Crop Needed in a Decade

100

140

180

220

260

300

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Marketing Year Beginning

MM

T

World demand likely to grow by 65 mmt (2.39 bil. bu.) in 10 years. Strong demand will require ever increasing production of soybeans and boost world trade of soybeans (and/or soy products).

China and India’s economies are growing at the fastest pace in over 15 years!!

If US cuts bean area 10 mln. ac. by 2010, Brazil will have to increase area by 27 mln. ac.(50%) to make up for lost US production and meet projected increased demand.

Source: Prof. Werner Antweiler, University of British Columbia

U.S. Beef Customers / Competitors

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

03 04 05 06 07 08

5- Year FX Rates Against the US$

CAD$EUR €AUS$BRZ RSK WUS$JP ¥

More Buying Power / Less Competitive

The Brazilian Real has gained relative to the US$. This means that although US soybean futures have increased $8.35 since the Fall of 2002, Brazilian farmers have seen a price increase of only $3.60/bu over that same time period.

Brazilian Real Has Gained 140% Against the $US Since Nov

May Corn FuturesMay Corn Futures

May Feeder Cattle May Feeder Cattle

Corn = >$6/bushel

New Energy Bill Signed

Breakeven Purchase Price750 lb Steer

Corn Price $/bu

$589/hd

615

641

667

693

719

$540/hd

566

592

618

644

669

80.00

82.00

84.00

86.00

88.00

90.00

4.00 4.50Fed

Price

$490/hd

516

542

568

594

620

5.00

$638/hd

664

690

716

742

768

3.50

$49 $49 $50

$26

$26

$26

$26

$26

Livestock Marketing Information Center

DISTILLER DRIED GRAIN PRICESChicago Illinois, Weekly

65

85

105

125

145

165

185$ Per Ton

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

05/08/08

United States Feedyards > 16,000 HeadJanuary 1, 2005

United States Feedyards > 16,000 HeadJanuary 1, 2006

United States Packers > 1,000 HeadJanuary 1, 2004

IA CA IL MN AZ0

5

10

15

20

25

PERCENT

1970 1980 2005

Fed Marketings - Decline

Source: USDA2005 12-State 1,000 hd & over

Source: USDA2005 12-State 1,000 hd & over

CO OK NE TX KS0

5

10

15

20

25

30

PERCENT

1970 1980 2005

Fed Marketing- Growth

7 to 145 (12)2 to 7 (4)

-20 to 2 (14)-58 to -20 (10)

-290 to -58 (10)

C-N-2902/01/08

Alaska

Hawaii

US Total

-1162

-53 15

-155-107

CT -1

DE 1

-47

-67

-3

-38

-38 -49

5 54

27

2

MD -5

MA 21

12

-72

15

-29

-95-17

1

NJ -1

-112

26

-65

-58

12

145

-57

RI 0

-34

-39

49

-290

30

2

4

-20

-5

60

-91

-1198

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA/NASS

-5 7

Livestock Marketing Information Center

U S BEEF COW INVENTORYvs FI BEEF COW SLAUGHTER

Annual

32

33

34

35

36

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Mil. Head

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5Mil. Head

Beef CowInventory

FI BeefCowSlaughter

C-S-2805/07/08

BEEF COW SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Monthly

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV

Thou. Head

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

C-S-2004/25/08

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA/NASS

SLAUGHTER COW PRICESSouthern Plains, 85-90% Lean, Weekly

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

C-P-3505/07/08Livestock Marketing Information Center

Wholesale Pricing Chart: Choice Grade Sub-Primals

Source: CattleFax March 21, 2008

IMPS/ NAMP #

DescriptionCurr Year Price

Prev Week Price

Prev Year Price

109 E Ribeye Roll, Lip On, Bone In 4.47 4.87 5.49112 A Ribeye Lip On Boneless 5.00 5.07 6.44123 A Short Plate, Short Ribs, Trimmed 1.73 1.87 1.44124 Back Rib (Frozen) 0.52 0.51 0.46

RIBIMPS/

NAMP #Description

Curr Year Price

Prev Week Price

Prev Year Price

174 Short Loin, Short Cut 4.16 4.16 4.79175 Strip Loin, Bone In 3.80 3.95 5.12180 Strip Loin, Boneless 4.75 4.72 6.04184 Top Sirloin Butt, Boneless 2.27 2.31 3.21

185 A Bottom Sirloin Butt, Flap, Boneless 3.01 3.07 3.94185 B Bottom Sirloin Butt, Ball Tip, Boneless 1.68 1.74 2.57185 C Bottom Sirloin Butt, Tri-Tip, Boneless 2.43 2.41 2.77189 A Tenderloin, Full, Muscle On, Defatted 7.76 7.82 9.38191 A Tenderloin, Butt, Defatted 7.66 7.71 8.51

LOIN

IMPS/ NAMP #

DescriptionCurr Year Price

Prev Week Price

Prev Year Price

114 A Chuck Shoulder Clod Trimmed 1.53 1.60 1.73114 E Chuck Clod Arm Roast 2.20 2.41 2.59116 A Chuck Roll 1.56 1.61 1.72116B Chuck Tender 1.91 1.97 1.91

CHUCK

IMPS/ NAMP #

DescriptionCurr Year Price

Prev Week Price

Prev Year Price

136 50% Trimmings 0.61 0.63 0.61136 73% Ground Beef 1.05 1.02 0.97136 81% Ground Beef 1.20 1.20 1.16136 90% Ground Beef 1.61 1.63 1.68136 93% Ground Beef 1.77 1.79 1.71137 Coarse Ground Chuck 1.29 1.30 1.27137 Coarse Ground Round 1.50 1.52 1.42137 Coarse Ground Sirloin 2.25 2.26 2.29

TRIM/GROUND BEEF (23% Wt)

IMPS/ NAMP #

DescriptionCurr Year Price

Prev Week Price

Prev Year Price

120 Brisket, Deckle Off, Boneless 1.24 1.25 1.36121 C Outside Skirt 3.24 3.35 2.69121 D Inside Skirt 2.85 2.89 3.24193 Flank Steak 4.11 4.21 4.56

Brisket, Plate, Flank

Prep

ared

on

b eh a

lf o f

t he

C at tl

e men

’s Be

e f B

oard

by

t he

N at io

n al C

attle

men

’s Be

ef A

ssoc

iatio

n.

Choice/Select Spread $1.42

IMPS/ NAMP #

DescriptionCurr Year Price

Prev Week Price

Prev Year Price

161 Round Shank Off, Boneless 1.55 1.56 1.77167 A Knuckle Peeled 1.66 1.69 1.86168 Top Round, Inside, Untrimmed 1.67 1.67 1.84

171 B Outside Round Flat 1.58 1.60 1.97171C Eye of Round 2.05 2.18 2.23

ROUND

GuideWt = WeightVal= ValueExample: Total weight for each primal includes bone, fat and trim. This is a change from the previous which just tracked the values of retail cuts listed.

Up vs Prev YR

Down vs Prev YR29% Weight

CHUCK9% Weight

RIB16% Weight

LOIN22% Weight

ROUND

PLATE FLANKBRISKET

Avg. week ending:

NewNew

1 9 % W e i g h t

"Prices shown are based on USDA weighted average prices from the previous week.  Prices reflect average not actual market prices."

Funded by The Beef Checkoff

HEIFER SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Monthly

725

775

825

875

925

975

1025

JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV

Thou. Head

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

C-S-1204/25/08

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA/NASS

TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLEU.S., January 1

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Mil. Head

1938-49

1949-58

1958-67

1967-79

1979-90

1990-04

2004-08

C-N-4002/07/08

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA/NASS

CALF PRICES AND CATTLE INVENTORYWestern Kansas 5-600 Lb. Steers, Annual

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Mil. Head

30

45

60

75

90

105

120

135

$ Per Cwt.

CattleInventory

Calf Price

C-N-4102/07/08

Livestock Marketing Information Center

Unit: Yuan/KG

15.50

17.50

19.50

21.50

23.50

25.50

27.50

29.50

31.50

06-0

4-26

06-0

5-24

06-0

6-21

06-0

7-19

06-0

8-16

06-0

9-13

06-1

0-11

06-1

1-08

06-1

2-06

07-0

1-03

07-0

1-31

07-0

2-28

07-0

3-28

07-0

4-25

07-0

5-23

07-0

6-20

07-0

7-18

07-0

8-15

07-0

9-12

07-1

0-10

07-1

1-07

07-1

2-05

08-0

1-02

08-0

1-30

08-0

2-27

08-0

3-26

08-0

4-23

Unit: MT

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2006 2007 2008

Source: USDA/FAS

Live Hog Prices in Selected Asian Countries

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

US$/

kg

Thai

Vietnamese

Cambodia

Chinese

HOG SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

Thou. Head

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

H-S-0503/21/08

PORK PRODUCTIONFederally Inspected, Weekly

280

330

380

430

480

530Mil. Pounds

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

M-S-1903/21/08

Livestock Marketing Information Center

FEEDER PIG IMPORTS FROM CANADAWeekly

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

Thou. Head

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

03/20/08

Livestock Marketing Information Center

SLAUGHTER SOWS & BOARS IMPORTS FROM CANADA

Weekly

5

6

7

8

9

1011

12

13

14

15

16

Thou. Head

Avg.2004-06

2007

2008

03/20/08

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 0831

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

000

HEAD

Beef Cow Inventory

Source: USDA2004-2009 Projected

OLD

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 0831

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

000

HEAD

Beef Cow Inventory

Source: USDA2008 Projected YEARS

-170,000 Head

Livestock Marketing Information Center

ALFALFA HAY - MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICEReceived by Farmers, U.S., Crop Year

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR

$ Per Ton

Avg.01/02-05/06

2006/07

2007/08

G-P-1205/01/08

Livestock Marketing Information Center

C-P-6603/05/08

Livestock Marketing Information Center

BEEF COW SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80Thou. Head

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

C-S-3406/08/08

BOXED COW-BEEF CUTOUT VALUECutter Cow, Weekly

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

Livestock Marketing Information Center 06/02/08

Livestock Marketing Information Center

CATTLE SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly

500

550

600

650

700

750

JAN

APRJU

LOCT

Thou. Head

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

C-S-0805/09/08

Livestock Marketing Information Center

LIVE WEIGHT -- STEER AND HEIFERTexas/Oklahoma Panhandle Area, Weekly

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

1260

1280

1300Pounds

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

C-S-2606/08/08

BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUEChoice 600-900 Lbs. Carcass, Weekly

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

C-P-6205/07/08Livestock Marketing Information Center

CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICESCarcass Cutout Value 600-900 Lbs., Weekly

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

C-P-6805/07/08Livestock Marketing Information Center

MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES400-500 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

C-P-49A06/02/08Livestock Marketing Information Center

FEEDLOT PLACEMENTSUS Total, Monthly

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Mil. Head

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

C-N-0804/18/08

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA/NASS

CATTLE ON FEEDUS Total, Monthly

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Mil. Head

Avg.2002-2006

2007

2008

C-N-1004/18/08

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA/NASS

SLAUGHTER STEER PRICESSouthern Plains, Weekly

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2002-06

2007

2008

C-P-5206/02/08Livestock Marketing Information Center

AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERSFeeding 725 Lb. Steers, S. Plains, Monthly

-175

-125

-75

-25

25

75

125

175

225

275

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$ Per Head

C-P-2203/14/08

Latest Data: February 2008

LC Feb 08   93.250  

LC Apr 08   95.650    90.150    87.875  

LC Jun 08   95.850    90.050    89.575   93.875 93.850

LC Aug 08   97.800    94.200    95.500   99.100 100.200

LC Oct 08   102.650  

 100.025  

 100.950  

105.550 107.425

LC Dec 08   103.700  

 102.375  

 102.950  

106.000 109.300

LC Feb 09   104.350  

 104.125  104.800 107.625 110.600

LC Apr 09   104.100  

 104.000  

 104.750  

108.750 112.050

LC Jun 09   101.550  

 101.200  

 101.850  

105.500 108.500

2/27 3/27 4/8 5/16 6/5

HUGE increase in cost of feedstuffs Limited market access Record competition from other meats ???’s about the U.S. economy Excess Capacity Drought

USDA 123A Short Ribs, Choice

2007

3 yr Avg

2003

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

#123A and #130 Short ribs ~ 10 lbs per head. The meat price increase on these two cuts alone is worth $18 per head.

Source: USDA