Greenhouse Effectfrom Carbon Neutral: http://www.carbonneutral.com.au/climatechangediagram.htm

Human Causes of Climate ChangeUNEP: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate-change-global-processes-and-effects1

2009 State of the Climate Report US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationhttp://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/2009/bams-sotc-2009-brochure-hi-rez.pdf

2009 State of the Climate Report

2009 State of the Climate Report

2009 State of the Climate Report

• A comprehensive review of key climate indicators confirms the world is warming and the past decade was the warmest on record. More than 300 scientists from 48 countries analyzed data on 37 climate indicators, including sea ice, glaciers and air temperatures. A more detailed review of 10 of these indicators, selected because they are clearly and directly related to surface temperatures, all tell the same story: global warming is undeniable. 2009 State of the Climate Report

In Summary:

Thompson Reuters Humanitarian Alert Nethttp://www.alertnet.org/db/an_art/60167/2010/02/3-161204-1.htm

What does it mean?

Long Term Changes

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8629379.stm

http://www.scidev.net/en/news/climate-change-threatens-important-mangroves.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/09/weather-hampers-pakistan-flood-relief

What does it mean?

Extreme Events

What we can say is that global warming has an effect on the probability and intensity of extreme events. This is true for precipitation as well as temperature, because the amount of water vapour that the air carries is a strong function of temperature. So the frequency of extremely heavy rain and floods increases as global warming increases. But at times and places of drought, global warming can increase the extremity of temperature and associated events such as forest fires.

Dr James Hansen: What Climate Change Looks Like ... So Far

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2010/20100813_WhatGlobalWarmingLooksLike.pdf

Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/interactive/2009/dec/02/world-climate-anomalies-map

http://www.unep.org/pdf/ccScienceCompendium2009/cc_ScienceCompendium2009_full_en.pdf

• The consequences of climate change are already unfolding.

• We are “locked in” to further increases in temperature and related impacts.

• These two factors influence next steps.

In Summary:

Climate Change and Conflict

Climate change impacts water, agriculture, health; leads to urbanization, migration.

These impacts will create conflict.

Resolution of conflict depends on governance/local resilience/adaptive capacity.

Poor governance – greater chance of instability and violence.

Summarized from A Climate of Conflict: The Links Between Climate Change, Peace and WarInternational Alert, November 2007 http://www.international-alert.org/climate_change/index.php

Some examples:

Mali vs. Chad: different response to long term drought

Haiti versus Dominican Republic: response to extreme storms

British Columbia – Pine Beetle – Fires – Institutional Response/Regional Cooperation

Many factors involved – how do governments react?See Climate of Conflict

Key country factors in climate –conflict resolution:• Political stability• Economic strength• Food security• Existing pressures from migration/urbanization

Consequences of failure to adapt:• Malnutrition, starvation, violence, migrationFrom Climate of Conflict

Responding to climate change and avoiding conflict: key points

Adaptation as primary focus in LDC’s, NOT mitigation (climate change will happen)

Build strong communities and institutions to increase local resilience and security

Pursue adaptations based on local strengths AND climate science (know local impacts of long term trends)

Regional interdependence, international cooperation and support will also be important

From Climate of Conflict

Argentina

Belaru

sBraz

il

Canad

aChina

Colombia

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Jamaic

aKen

ya

Mexico

Philippines

Seneg

al

Sri La

nka

Tanzan

ia

Ukraine

USA0.00

1,000,000.00

2,000,000.00

3,000,000.00

4,000,000.00

5,000,000.00

6,000,000.00

7,000,000.00

Emissions by country, 1000 metric tonnes CO2

Argentina

Belaru

sBraz

il

Canad

aChina

Colombia

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Jamaic

aKen

ya

Mexico

Philippines

Seneg

al

Sri La

nka

Tanzan

ia

Ukraine

USA0

5

10

15

20

25

Percent of World Total Emissions

Argentina

Belaru

sBraz

il

Canad

aChina

Colombia

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Jamaic

aKen

ya

Mexico

Philippines

Seneg

al

Sri La

nka

Tanzan

ia

Ukraine

USA0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

CO2 emissions per capita, tonnes

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,0000

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Argentina

Belarus

Brazil

Canada

China

Columbia

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Jamaica

Kenya

Mexico

Philippines

SenegalSri Lanka

Tanzania

Ukraine

United States

Emissions by GDP per capita

Where do you fit in?

A: States facing a high risk of armed conflict as a knock-on consequence of climate change:

11. Colombia23. Indonesia34. Philippines36. Senegal41. Sri Lanka

B: States facing a high risk of political instability as a knock-on consequence of climate change:

4. Belarus5. Brazil21. Jamaica23. Kenya32. Mexico52. Ukraine

From Climate of Conflict (International Alert)Conflict: current or recent war, poverty and inequality, bad governance, corruption, arbitrary authority, poor systems of justice, weak institutionsInstability: arbitrary rule, transition from dictatorship or war, under development, lack of technical capacity

Source: World Bank Environment Department June 2009http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ENVIRONMENT/Resources/ESW_EcosystemBasedApp.pdf

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,0000

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Argentina

Belarus

Brazil

Canada

China

Columbia

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Jamaica

Kenya

Mexico

Philippines

SenegalSri Lanka

Tanzania

Ukraine

United States

Countries most at risk: conflict, instability, direct impacts

Summary

• The countries least responsible for the problem will bear the greatest impact.

• Issue of global justice, calls for international cooperation and support for adaptation – not just aid in time of crisis.

• World wide benefits: peace, security, stability, sustainable development.

Other Resources

• UNEP Climate Change Science Compendium 2009 http://www.unep.org/compendium2009/ (latest science background)

• Climate Action Network http://www.climatenetwork.org/ (networking-NGO’s)• Small Island Developing States Network (networking -- Jamaica) http://www.sidsnet.org/1f.html• Facebook: Christina Ora, Solomon Islands (networking -- activist)• Oxfam http://www.oxfam.org/en/climatechange (adaptation -- what works; DRR example, Kenya)• UNFCC National Adaptation Programme of Action (national strategies: Senegal, Tanzania)

http://unfccc.int/cooperation_support/least_developed_countries_portal/submitted_napas/items/4585.php

• UNFCC Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptations in Developing Countries http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/impacts.pdf (regional details, adaptation strategies)

• World Bank http://beta.worldbank.org/climatechange/regions (Market based solutions for G-77)• International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (IPCC WG II) (international framework, tools)

http://www.unisdr.org/eng/risk-reduction/climate-change/climate-change.html• International Alert: Climate Change, Conflict and Fragility (2009)

http://www.international-alert.org/pdf/Climate_change_conflict_and_fragility_Nov09.pdf (adaptation issues and approaches, Philippines example)

emissions (1000 Tonnes) % world total population tonnes per capita GDP per capita

Argentina 183,728.00 0.63 40,518,951 4.534372077 7,726

Belarus 66,802.00 0.23 9,471,900 7.052650471 5,166

Brazil 368,317.00 1.26 193,390,000 1.904529707 8,220

Canada 557,340.00 1.9 34,212,000 16.29077517 39,669

China 6,538,367.00 22.3 1,339,270,000 4.882037976 3,678

Colombia 63,439.00 0.22 45,576,000 1.39193874 5,087

Hong Kong 39,963.00 0.14 7,026,400 5.687549812 29,826

Indonesia 397,143.00 1.35 234,180,000 1.695887779 2,329

Jamaica 13,964.00 0.05 2,730,000 5.115018315 4,390

Kenya 11,236.00 0.04 40,863,000 0.274967575 912

Mexico 471,459.00 1.61 108,396,211 4.349404796 8,135

Philippines 70,916.00 0.24 94,013,200 0.754319606 1,746

Senegal 5,478.00 0.02 12,861,000 0.425938885 994

Sri Lanka 12,314.00 0.04 20,410,000 0.6033317 2,041

Tanzania 6,043.00 0.02 45,040,000 0.134169627 551

Ukraine 317,537.00 1.08 45,871,738 6.922279683 2,542

USA 5,838,381.00 19.91 310,020,000 18.83227211 46,381

2007 emissions data collected by CDIAC for UNFCC

CO2 emissions only from burning of fossil fuels and cement production -- not things like deforestation, etc.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions

Population: national estimates or 2010 estimates from UN Dept of Econ and Social Affairshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population#List

GDP: IMF, 2009http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

Background data and sources