Greater Minnesota Transit Investment Plan

PACDecember 14, 2010

From the LegislationThe commissioner shall develop a greater Minnesota transit investment plan that contains a goal of meeting at least 80 percent of total transit service needs in greater Minnesota by July 1, 2015, and meeting at least 90 percent of total transit service needs in greater Minnesota by July 1, 2025. The plan must include, but is not limited to, the following:

–an analysis of ridership and total transit service needs throughout greater Minnesota–a calculation of the level and type of service required to meet total transit needs–an analysis of costs and revenue options–a plan to reduce total transit service needs

S.F. No. 2540, 6th Engrossment

Plan GoalsTo reduce total transit service needs by:• Developing a profile of current riders, measuring

satisfaction levels, identifying ridership trends• Determining total transit needs at a county level• Building support for investment priorities

Plan ElementsMarket Research– Focus Groups

– Non-users of public transit – 12 statewide (1 per RDC region)

– Demographic Profile– Regional maps depicting population characteristics and public transit

service

– On-board Surveys– Public transit riders– Every system statewide– Over 10,000 surveys completed

– Structured Interviews– 24 key community leaders– Discuss investment priorities

Plan Elements

Public Outreach• Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)• Plan Advisory Committee (PAC)• 50+ Stakeholder presentations • Project website• 12 Public open houses• Public hearing (Jan 19)

Plan Elements

Technical Analysis Review• Passenger Demand Projections

• Service Hour Projections

• Operating Cost Estimates

Passenger Demand Model ResultsAnnual Passenger Demand:2010: 18.1 million2015: 18.8 million2025: 20.9 million

11.0 million rides were delivered in 2009: current services meet about 60% of projected demand

County Population

Characteristics

Future Passenger Demand

User Trip Rates

Passenger Demand

Service Hours Model ResultsAnnual Service Hour Needs:2010: 1.8 million2015: 2.0 million2025: 2.1 million

1.03 million service hours were delivered in 2009: current services meet about 57% of projected need

County Population Distribution

Future Service Hours

Service Level Rates

Service Needs

Operating Cost to Meet 100% of Service Needs

Annual Cost Projections*:2010: $103.7 million2015: $128.1 million2025: $183.4 million2009 actual costs: $55 million

*Capital costs not included in these figures. Future year costs adjusted for 2.85% inflation.

Future Service Hours

Future Service Costs

Cost Per Hour by Service

Area

Operating Costs

Capital Cost to Meet 100% of Service Needs

Annual Cost Projections*:2010: $33.5 million2015: $57.1 million2025: $71.3 million

*Future year costs adjusted for 2.85% inflation.

Operating Costs to Meet Legislative Targets

2015 Target level* of 80% of total needs =$102 million2025 Target level* of 90% of total needs = $165 million2009 actual costs= $55 million

*Capital costs not included in these figures. Future year costs adjusted for 2.85% inflation.

Investment Plan Priorities

• Preservation• Expansion• Contraction

Priorities will be re-evaluated every four years by Mn/DOT and adjusted as needed.

Preservation of Services

Mn/DOT will continue to fund systems that: 1. Demonstrate local fiscal capacity2. Meet system-level performance measures

set by peer group averages– Cost/passenger– Cost/service hour– Passengers/service hour– System revenue to cost ratio– Compliance with administrative and reporting procedures

Expansion of Services

Highest priorities for investment of new funds:• Establish service in unserved counties with

potential to meet performance measures within three years (legislative priority)

• Provide longer hours to serve more trips• Expand multi-county services to link more

communities

Secondary Expansion

• Provide service on more days of the week in areas with limited schedules

• Expand service frequencies and coverage• Expand services to provide consistent levels of

service statewide

Contraction of Services

If funding decreases, the following guidelines will determine contraction priorities: • Expansion will not be considered• Work with systems to redesign under-performing

services• Reduce state and federal funding to under-performing

services

Identified Program Management Tools

• Increase use of technology to gain efficiencies• Refine services using service-level

performance measures• Coordinate with other transit providers

including volunteers, 5310 programs, and taxis• Increase marketing to reach more customers• Provide free rides to disabled veterans on

fixed route services

Draft Transit Investment PrioritiesF

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Fun

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PreservationMn/DOT will first preserve existing public transit systems that are funded by federal and state dollars through the annual allocation of financial assistance. Systems that demonstrate local fiscal capacity and meet system-level performance measure tests* will receive preference for state and federal funding to provide service hours.

*Demonstration will be determined on a pass/fail basis.

Mn/DOT will provide resources to start new services in geographic areas without public transit service before expanding existing services.

ExpansionMn/DOT’s top priorities for additions to existing service are:• Expand multi-county services to link more communities.• Provide longer hours (morning and night) to serve more trips.

Contraction

Should contraction become necessary, Mn/DOT will take the following steps:

• Funding for system expansion will not be considered.• Work with systems to redesign under-performing services in small urban, large urban, and

rural areas according to service-level performance measures.• Reduce state and federal funding to under-performing systems in small urban, large urban,

and rural areas according to performance measures.

Plan CompletionComments: Please provide any additional comments by December 17 to Fay Cleaveland, fay.cleaveland@state.mn.us

Final Draft release: expected January 5www.dot.state.mn.us/transit/transitplan/

Public Hearing: January 19th, 4-6pm