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Election 2016 Initial Post-Election Analysis November 9, 2016

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Election 2016 Initial Post-Election Analysis

November 9, 2016

PAGE  2

E L E C TI ON O V E R VIE W

• Online Landscape

• Landscape: Lead-Up To The Election

• Presidential Results: What happened?

• Presidential Results: How did it happen?

• Congressional Results: What happened?

• Gubernatorial and Ballot Measure Results: What happened?

• Looking Ahead: On the Issues

PAGE  3

I N I T I AL H E A DL INE S

• Trump’s win represents a stunning upset, going against the vast majority of public polling predictions and every major political forecast.

• Clinton will likely win the national popular vote. This will be the fifth time it has happened in presidential history.

• Clinton was unable to recreate the Obama voter coalition.

• She fell significantly short of expectations across a range of demographic groups that helped elect Barack Obama in 2008 & 2012, indicating the party base was not as energized by Clinton than by Obama.

• She saw key losses in several rust belt states (OH, PA, WI) usually carried by Democrats.

Source: Cook Political Report, NPR, The Fix

PAGE  4

I N I T I AL H E A DL INE S

• Trump overwhelmingly won whites without college degrees, while maintaining the support of white college graduates.

• In the end, GOP voters lined up behind Trump.

• Trump did well among voters who really didn’t like him. Voters embraced Trump despite large misgivings about his personality and policies.

Source: Cook Political Report, NPR, The Fix

O N L I N E L A N D S C A P E

PAGE 6

T R U M P D O M IN ATED T H E O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ON L E A D I NG U P T O T H E E L E C TI ON

• Three months ahead of the election, Donald Trump had significantly more online mentions than Hillary Clinton.

• 14 days ahead of election day, there were slightly more Trump mentions online than Clinton mentions. Despite the FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress on Hillary Clinton’s e-mails, Trump remained the most talked about candidate ahead of election day.

Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016

PAGE 7

T R U M P S E N TI MEN T M O R E P O S I TIV E P R I O R T O T H E E L E C TIO N

• Trump has had more positive sentiment than Hillary Clinton in online mentions of him during the the last three months and the last 14 days of the campaign.

Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016

PAGE 8

3 0 , 0 0 0 T W E ET S I N A M I N U T E AT 3 A M

Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016

P O P U LA R T O P ICS T H E M O R N IN G A F T ER

• P o p u l a r t o p i c s f r o m 9 : 1 5 A M -1 0 : 1 5 A M E T t h e d a y a f t e r e l e c t i o n d a y c a p t u r e s t h e e l a t i o n a n d d i s a p p o i n t m e n t o f t h e e l e c t o r a t e .

PAGE 9Data courtesy of Brandwatch React US Presidential Election 2016

L A N D S C A P E : L E A D U P T O T H E E L E C T I O N

PAGE 11

V O T E RS W E R E L O O K ING F O R C H A N GE

Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, November 3-5, 2016

43%

54%

Someone who will bring a steady approach to the way government operates even if it means fewer

changes to how things are now

Someone who will bring major changes to the way government operates even if it is not possible to

predict what the changes may be

In thinking about the next president that we’ll be electing, which of the following two statements comes closer to your point of view?

PAGE 12

A N D T R U M P WA S V I E W ED A S A C H A N GE A G E N T; T E L LS I T L I K E I T I S

Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, October 14-17, 2016

Clinton24%

Trump63%

Not sure14%

Source: CBS News Poll, October 12-16, 2016

Trump ClintonYes, says what he /

she believes 59% 34%

No, says what people want to hear 37% 64%

Would change the way Washington does business

Do you think [Hillary Clinton / Donald Trump] says what [he/she] believes most of the time, or does he

say what [he/she] thinks people want to hear?

PAGE 13

M O S T N AT ION AL P O L LS & M O D E LS S AW A C L I N TO N V I C TORY

Source: HuffPost Pollster, The Upshot

CLINTON

TRUMP

Clinton led in the head to head match-up from the very start of the campaign.

P R E S I D E N T I A L R E S U L T S : W H A T H A P P E N E D ?

PAGE 15

2 0 1 6 E L E C TI ON R E S U LTS ( S O FA R )

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NH

18

3

29

20

312

7

556

43

6

115

9

3

3

5

3

4

38

6

7

10

6

10

6

86 9 16

29

91513

11

20 11

1016

85

RI4

NJ15

CT7

DE3

MD10

DC3

MA12

Clinton228

Trump290

Party change from ‘12

VT3

NH4

1

Not yet decided(MI & NH)

PAGE 16

C L I N TON A P P EA RS P O I S ED T O W I N T H E N AT I O NAL P O P UL AR V O T E

Source Washington Post, History Channel

Clinton59,740,000

47.7%

Trump59,520,000

47.5%• Only 4 times in U.S. history has a candidate won the presidency without winning the popular

vote: (2000 Bush, 1888 Harrison, 1876 Hayes, 1824 Quincy Adams)

• It’s occurred twice in the past 16 years

PAGE  17

T H E E L E C TO RAL M A P

• Trump picked up 5 states from Obama in 2012 (Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa) (6 if Michigan is called).

A little history…

• Trump picked up 1 electoral vote out of Maine (ME-2), the first time a Republican has won anything out of the northeast in sixteen years.

• Trump has won the most electoral votes for a Republican since Reagan in 1984.

• This is the first time since 1984 that a Republican presidential candidate has won Michigan (if called), Wisconsin and Pennsylvania combined.

PAGE 18

A R E C A P O F 2 0 1 2 E L E C T ION

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NH

18

4

29

20

312

7

556

43

6

115

9

3

3

5

3

4

38

6

7

10

6

10

6

86 9 16

29

91513

11

20 11

1016

85

VT3

RI4

NJ15

CT7

DE3

MD10

DC3

MA12

NH4

Obama332

Romney206

Party change from ‘08

PAGE 19

A R E C A P O F 2 0 0 8 E L E C T ION

OR

AK

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

20

4

31

21

311

7

555

43

5

105

9

3

3

4

3

4

38

6

7

10

7

11

6

96 9 15

27

81513

11

21 11

1017

85

VT3

RI4

NJ15

CT7

DE3

MD10

DC3

MA12

NH4

1

Obama365

McCain173

P R E S I D E N T I A L R E S U L T S : H O W D I D I T H A P P E N ?

PAGE  21

T U R N OUT WA S D O W N

• 55.6% of eligible voters voted (initial estimate)

• Lowest turnout since 2000 (54.2%), the other popular vote/electoral college split year.

• Trump won with 59.4 million votes. Mitt Romney received 60.9 million votes and lost.

• 18 million fewer voters than in 2012.

PAGE  22

L A R G ES T R E C ORD ED G E N DE R G A P

Source: Exit Polls

2004 2008 2012 2016

Women +3 D +13 D +11 D +12 D

Men +11 R +1 D +7 R +12 R

Gender Gap 14-points 12-points 18-points 24-points

PAGE  23

W H I T E V O T E H A S D R O P PED S I N C E 2 0 0 4 , B U T I N T H E E N D I T D I D N ’ T M ATT ER

Source: Exit Polls

% of Electorate2004 2008 2012 2016

White 77% 74% 72% 70%Black 12% 13% 13% 12%

Hispanic/Latino 8% 8% 10% 11%

Spread2004 2008 2012 2016

White +17R +12R +20R +21RBlack +77D +91D +87D +80D

Hispanic/Latino +9D +36D +44D +36D

• Hispanic vote is a growing part of the electorate but they didn’t turn out for Clinton like they did for Obama in 2012

• African American vote slightly down, but more so in key states like North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania

PAGE  24

T R U M P O V E RWHE LMI NGLY W O N L E S S E D U CAT ED W H I T ES

Source: Exit Polls

Vote by Education and Race

Clinton Trump

White college-grad women (20%) 51% 45% +6D

White non-college women (17%) 34% 62% +28R

White college-grad men (17%) 39% 54% +15R

White non-college men (17%) 23% 72% +49R

PAGE  25

M I L L E NNIA L T U RN OUT M AT CHE D 2 0 1 2 , B U T F E L L S H O RT O F O B A M A’ S N U M BER S

Source: Exit Polls

% of Electorate2004 2008 2012 2016

18-29 17 18 19 1930-44 29 29 27 2545-64 30 37 38 4065+ 24 16 16 15

Spread2004 2008 2012 2016

18-29 +9D +34D +23D +18D30-44 +7R +6D +7D +8D45-64 +3R +1D +4R +9R65+ +8R +8R +12R +8R

The decrease in Millennial support for Clinton may be due to the increase in their support for third party candidate Gary Johnson

Millennial turnout was at the same level as previous elections –However, their support for the Democratic ticket was lower

PAGE  26

E C O N OMY V I E W ED A S M O S T I M P ORTA NT; T R UM P B E T TER A B L E T O H A N D LE I T

Source: Exit Polls

Most Important Issue Clinton Trump Margin

The Economy 52% 52% 42% +10 D

Terrorism 18% 39% 57% +18 R

Foreign Policy 13% 60% 34% +26 D

Immigration 13% 32% 64% +32 R

Trump was viewed as better able to handle the economy, 49% to 46%

PAGE  27

C L I N TON W I N S O N N E A R LY A L L T R A I TS E X C E PT T H E O N E T H AT M AT T ERE D T H E M O S T

Source: Exit Polls

Can bring change 39%

Spread

+69R

Total

Right experience

Cares about people like me

+82D

Good judgment

21%

20%

15%

+40D

+23D

PAGE  28

T R U M P W I N S V O T E RS W H O A R E A N G R Y A N D D I S S ATI SFI ED W I T H T H E F E D E R AL G O V ERN MENT

5%

24%

46%

23%

Enthusiastic

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Angry

Clinton Trump

78% 20%

75% 20%

45% 49%

18% 77%

Source: Exit Polls

PAGE  29

T R U M P P I C K ED U P M O R E L AT E- DEC IDE RS

When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election?

% Spread

Last few days 8 +2 R

Last week 6 +12 R

In October 12 +14 R

In September 13 +4 R

Before September 60 +7 D

Source: Exit Polls

PAGE 30

I F T H E Y D I D N’ T L I K E E I T H ER C A N DID ATE, T H E Y V O T ED F O R T R U M P

Among voters who view both Clinton and Trump unfavorably, Trump won nearly half of their vote.

29%

49%

ClintonTrump

C O N G R E S S I O N A L R E S U L T S : W H A T H A P P E N E D ?

Democrats: 46* Republicans: 54

*Two independents caucus with Democrats

PAGE 32

2 0 1 6 S E N ATE: P R E- ELE CTI ON – R A C E S I N P L AY

KY

GA

2016 map favored the Democrats

S E N ATE P O S T-E LEC TIO N: D E M O CRATS P I C K U P T W O S E AT S A S R E P U BL ICA NS R E TAI N C O N TR OL

OR

KY

NM

MN

CO

GA

NH

FL

PA

WI

NV

Johnson: 50.2%Feingold: 46.8%

Toomey: 48.9%McGinty: 47.2%

Rubio: 52.1%Murphy: 44.2%

Cortez Masto: 47.1%Heck: 44.7% NC

Burr: 51.1%Ross: 45.3%

Source: CNN

PAGE 33

MO

Hassan: 48.0%Ayotte: 47.9%

Blunt: 49.4%Kander: 46.2%

IN

Young: 52.2%Bayh: 42.0%

IL

Duckworth: 54.4%Kirk: 40.2%

Democrats: 48 Republicans: 51

(Louisiana votes in a run-off election)

PAGE  34

H O U S E R E S U LTS: R E P UB LIC ANS S U F F ERE D F E W L O S S ES

Source: CNN

Democrats RepublicansPre-Election 188 247Gains / Losses +5 -9Results* 193 238

*4 Seats Still Undecided

• 43 retirements heading into election (25 R, 18 D)• 7 incumbents lost (6 R, 1 D)

S T A T E R E S U L T S : W H A T H A P P E N E D ?

Democrats: 18 Republicans: 31 Independents: 1

PAGE 36

2 0 1 6 G O V E RNO RSHI PS: P R E -EL ECTI ON – R A C E S I N P L AY

KY

GA

PAGE 37

2 0 1 6 G O V E RNO RSHI PS: P O S T-E LEC TION

KY

GA

Democrats: 16 Republicans: 33 Independents: 1

Republicans: +2

PAGE 38

B A L L O T M E A SURE S 2 0 1 6 :

¨ Marijuana - Medical Marijuana: • Arkansas – Pass• Florida – Pass• Montana – Pass• North Dakota – Pass

- Recreational Marijuana• Arizona – Fail• California – Pass• Massachusetts – Pass• Maine – To Be Determined• Nevada – Pass

¨ Minimum Wage- Increase Minimum Wage• Arizona – Pass• Colorado – Pass• Maine – Pass• Washington – Pass

- Decrease Minimum Wage for those under 18• South Dakota – Fail

¨ Gun Control- Increase Background Checks• California – Pass• Maine – Fail• Nevada – Pass• Washington – Pass

PAGE 39

B A L L O T M E A SURE S 2 0 1 6 :

¨ Education - Alaska: Funding Postsecondary

Student Loans – Fail- California: Modernizing K-12, Charter,

and Vocational Schools – Pass- Georgia: State Intervention in Failing

Schools – Fail- Massachusetts: Funding New Charter

Schools – Fail- Oklahoma: State Funding for Public

Schools – Fail - Oregon: Dropout Prevention and

Career Readiness Programs in High Schools – Pass

¨ Healthcare- California: Fee on Hospitals to Fund

Coverage of Uninsured Patients –Pass

- California: Drug Price Standards –Fail

- Colorado: Assisted Suicide– Pass- Colorado: Creation of Universal

Healthcare System through taxes –Fail

- Nevada: Sales Tax Exemption of some Medical Equipment – Pass

¨ Death Penalty- California: Repealing the Death

Penalty – Fail- Oklahoma: Establishing the Death

Penalty – Pass

L O O K I N G A H E A D O N T H E I S S U E S ?

PAGE 41

H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: V I E WS O F G O V E RN MENT

Source:

2004 2008 2012 2016

Government should do more to solve problems 46% 51% 43% 45%

Government is doing too many things better left to

businesses and individuals49% 43% 51% 50%

PAGE 42

H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: I M M I GRATI ON

Source:

Clinton TrumpOffered a chance to apply

for legal status (70%) 60% 34%

Deported to the country they came from (25%) 14% 84%

Illegal immigrants working in the United States should be:

Clinton TrumpSupport (41%) 10% 86%Oppose (54%) 76% 17%

View of U.S. wall along the entire Mexican border:

PAGE 43

H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: H E A LTH C A R E

Source:

Clinton TrumpDid not go far enough (30%) 78% 18%

Was about right (18%) 82% 10%Went to far (47%) 13% 83%

View on Obamacare:

PAGE 44

H O T I S S U ES F O R N E W C O N GR ESS: I N T E RNATI ONAL T R A DE

Source:

Clinton TrumpCreates U.S. jobs (38%) 59% 35%

Takes away U.S. jobs (42%) 31% 65%Does not affect jobs (11%) 63% 30%

Effect of international trade:

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202.337.0808 | GPG.COM

GPG ResearchThe Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.

Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Katie Cissel Greenway ([email protected])Chris Gallup ([email protected])