All Red Route

1792George Vancouver

HMS Discovery

All Red Route

Carbon Footprint

3.2 tonnes of C0 2

$ 162.90 in offsets

Carbon Offsets

3.2 tonnes of C0 =

2

$162.90

§ Project§ Promotional event§ Meeting§ Research paper§ Honoraria§ Grant

For someone here with an idea:

Some change that willmake a difference.

A SmallIncrementalDifference.

TYPES OF CHANGE

Incremental

One Extreme

Utopian

Utopian

Apocalyptic

THE OTHEREXTREME

ApocalypticApocalyptic

Apocalyptic Utopian

Seismic

Incremental

ConservativeStatus Quo

TYPES OF CHANGE

Seismic ChangeSeismic Change

Climate Change

“These people (in thefinancial markets)believed that the collapseof the subprimemortgage market was unlikely preciselybecause it would besuch a catastrophe.”

precisely because itwould be such acatastrophe.”

“Nothing so terrible couldever actually happen.”

What is the likelihoodof something seismicnot occurring in thenext eight years?

How can our plansincorporate change sodisruptive …

That the assumptions onwhich the plan is basedare no longer true?

What is adecision-makerto do?

Dwight Eisenhower

“In preparing forbattle, I havealways found thatplans are useless butplanning isindispensable.”

The Battle Ground

• The American Dream• The Canadian Dream

… most of what we have built for the last half century

• The Australian Dream

• The New Zealand Dream

Assumptions for Suburbia

• Cheap, secure energy• Abundant, serviced land• Continuous flow of safe water• Low-cost money• Technologies and organizations that

make it all work

Cheap, secure energy

Crude Oil in 2008 Dollars

1880 1973

Motordom

Auto-DependentUrban Planning

Surrey, B.C. 2007

Motordom

1939FUTURAMANew YorkWorld’s Fair

Utopian

GMHeadquartersDetroit

Renaissance Center

Utopian

Detroit 1917 / Pre-Motordom

• World @ 5 to 50 kph

• World @ 50 to 100 kph

West Kelowna, B.C. 2010 / Motordom

Kelowna, B.C.

• Form follows parking

Abundance of serviced land

Vaughan, Ontario

20km

Toronto

The 905 Belt

TheStreetcarCity

Vaughan, Ontario

Vaughan, Ontario 2008

3 kilometres3 kilometres

VancouverPost-Motordom City

Hollywood Freeway

Chinatown Freeway

1956

1967

1972+

Seismic

Gold Coast

Claremont, PerthBlues Point, Sydney

Stanley Point Auckland

As the rate of changeslows down …

People’s perception ofchange increases.

… and Incrementalchange is perceived as Seismic.

IncrementalSeismic

Vancouver Reforms in the 1970s

• Local Area Planning• Urban Design Review• Heritage Preservation• Amenity requirements• Discretionary Zoning• Development Permit Board

From Seismic to Incremental

West End

Central BusinessDistrict

Concord Pacific Place(Yaletown)

Coal Harbour

DowntownSouth

Triangle West

The Livable City: Density Done Well

1985

1995

2006

2012

Seismic change isappropriate forbrownfields.

BrisbaneSouthbank

Auckland Wynyard Quarter

Asphalt Brownfield

Olympic Village site(Southeast False Creek)

Olympic Village site(Southeast False Creek)

Vinegar Lane

Incrementalchange isappropriate forestablishedneighbourhoods.

• Invisible• Hidden• Gentle

Incremental Densities

Invisible: Secondary Suites

Invisible: Secondary Suites

Hidden: Lane cottages

Hidden: Lane cottages

Hidden: Lane cottages

Over 500 already approved across the city

Gentle: Row housing

Gentle: Arterial corridors

Bob Rennie noted thatproximity to transit isparamount for today’shomebuyer.

“In the ’70s and ’80s it waslocation, location, location.

“In the ’90s throughmid-’2000s, it was timing,timing, timing. Vancouver ‘Condo King’

“And from here forward,it’s transit, transit, transit.”

“What used to be aniche market is nowthe market.” Chris LeinbergerUrban Land Institute’s Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) Council

Transit OrientedDevelopment

Station Square Metrotown on ExpoSkyTrain line

Brentwood Shopping Centre 1963

Brentwood Shopping Centre 2013

Canada Line on No. 3 Road

MC2 / Marine and Cambie onCanada Line

NEWPORT VILLAGEPort Moody

The besttransportationplan is a greatland-use plan.

City of Vancouver 1990s Plans

Key Elements of 1997 Plan

• No increase in road capacity

Key Elements of 1997 Plan

• No increase in road capacity

• Accommodate growth throughwalking, cycling, and transit

• No increase in road capacity

• Accommodate growth throughwalking, cycling, and transit

• Support regional TDM measures

• Maintain good truck access

• Support neighbourhood trafficcalming

• Provide services & jobs close tohome

Key Elements of 1997 Plan

Five Practical Choices

•Car•Taxi, Car-sharing, Driverless•Transit of all kinds•Bicycle / scooter•Foot

Five Practical Choices

Downtown Vancouver1996-2011

1996 - 2011

+10%

PEOPLEENTERINGDOWNTOWN

1996 - 2011

-25%

VEHICLESENTERINGDOWNTOWN

1996 - 2011

+26%

DOWNTOWNJOBS

1996 - 2011

+75%

DOWNTOWNPOPULATION

• More people & jobs

Peak periods = 7-9 am, 11am - 1pm, 3-6pm)Source: City of Vancouver estimates based on screenline counts and census information.Change in population & job numbers have been rounded to the nearest 1%, and screenline counts to the nearest 5%.

(peak periods) (peak periods)

• Less cars, but more trips

Downtown Vancouver1996-2011

1996 - 2011

+10%

PEOPLEENTERINGDOWNTOWN

1996 - 2011

-25%

VEHICLESENTERINGDOWNTOWN

1996 - 2011

+26%

DOWNTOWNJOBS

1996 - 2011

+75%

DOWNTOWNPOPULATION

• More people & jobs

Peak periods = 7-9 am, 11am - 1pm, 3-6pm)Source: City of Vancouver estimates based on screenline counts and census information.Change in population & job numbers have been rounded to the nearest 1%, and screenline counts to the nearest 5%.

(peak periods) (peak periods)

• Less cars, but more trips

Downtown Vancouver1996-2011

1996 - 2011

+10%

PEOPLEENTERINGDOWNTOWN

1996 - 2011

-25%

VEHICLESENTERINGDOWNTOWN

1996 - 2011

+26%

DOWNTOWNJOBS

1996 - 2011

+75%

DOWNTOWNPOPULATION

• More people & jobs

Peak periods = 7-9 am, 11am - 1pm, 3-6pm)Source: City of Vancouver estimates based on screenline counts and census information.Change in population & job numbers have been rounded to the nearest 1%, and screenline counts to the nearest 5%.

(peak periods) (peak periods)

• Less cars, but more trips

Central Vancouver Screenline

1960

19762010

Traffic into Downtown Vancouver

Robson Street

Robson Street

“Urban Pasture” parkette

Bute Street minipark at Haro

Traffic calming / Road diets

Dunsmuir Street separated bike lane

Cycle Tracks

City as Workout

Tamaki Drive

“City mulls plan for bike station withshowers near Waterfront Station”Revaluing Parking

Motordom

Streetcar City

WalkingCity

VancouverCore

New Port Mann Bridge –widest in the world

Gateway ProjectHighway 1 widening

Motordom overdid it..

Motordom drove out choice.

.

We’re not sustainable.

.

So we’ll change.

Incrementally? Seismically?

Apocalyptically?“Nothing so terrible couldever actually happen.”

.

How far will we go?

.

Motordom is now a civilizational bet.

What is adecision-maker todo?

Plan incrementalstrategies.

Anticipateseismicincrementalresponses.

A truly stable system expects the

unexpected, is prepared to be disrupted,waits to be transformed. - Tom Robbins

We overestimate whatcan be achieved in ayear …

And underestimate whatcan happen in a decade.

Plans may be useless.

Planning is indispensable.

What incremental change can you achieve?

$162.90

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