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Grenfell Tower, image source: Kentish, 2017 GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation

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Page 1: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Grenfell Tower, image source: Kentish, 2017

GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation

Page 2: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation

Dr John [email protected]

image source: Kentish, 2017

Parliamentary Forum: GMOs: Regulation or DeregulationParliament HouseCanberra30 July 2019

Page 3: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Parliament of Australia, 2019.

These regulations: * water down the definition of GMOs* have Australia going it alone in the world* risk damaging Australian food and agriculture

The push to deregulate some GMOs

Page 4: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

<cane toads>

CANE TOADS Pest

Invasive speciesBad Science

SMH, 2019, Weber, 2010

“Could a mistake like the cane toad fiasco happen again?”

Page 5: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

New York Times, 2017

Bad Deregulation

Page 6: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

“This is the biggest threat to food and agriculture

that we have ever faced”

Feedback…

Why?

Page 7: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

“It is a totally daft idea”

Feedback…

Why?

Page 8: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

World GMOs (ha)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Australia Rest World

99.6%

0.4%

data sources: ABCA, 2019, Cotton Australia, 2019, ISAAA, 2018.

Page 9: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Australian GMOs (ha)

data sources: ABCA, 2019, ABS, 2018, Cotton Australia, 2019

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

GMO Agriculture Non-GMO Agriculture

99.8%

0.2%

Page 10: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

GM

-free

is im

port

ant

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Net

herla

nds

UK

Bel

gium

Aus

tral

ia

Japa

n

Can

ada

USA

Arg

entin

a

Ger

man

y

Sout

h K

orea

Bra

zil

Fran

ce

Rus

sia

Spai

n

Italy

Mex

ico

Chi

na

60%

49%49%45%45%45%45%

43%43%41%

37%37%36%33%32%31%

28%

data source: GfK, 2017; n=23,000

Food shoppers don’t want GMOs

Page 11: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Wuhan, China, photo: J Paull

Chinese shoppers want clean & green

Page 12: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Australian Agriculture (ha)

data sources: ABCA, 2019, ABS, 2018, Cotton Australia, 2019, Willer & Lernoud, 2019

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

GMO Ag Organic Ag Rest Ag

91%

8.8%0.2%

Page 13: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Australian Supermarkets

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

GMO Food Non-GMO Food

100%

0%

Page 14: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

World Organics (ha)

Willer & Lernoud, 2019, Paull, 2019a

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

Australia Rest World

49%51%

* Zero tolerance for GMOs* 22% growth pa for past 5 years

Page 15: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

OGTR oversight of GMOsOffice of the Gene Technology Regulator

Withdrawn

Rejected

Approved

0 40 80 120 160

155

0

12

167 Applications (2001-2019)

data source: OGTR, 2019

Page 16: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Num

ber o

f GM

tria

l site

s w

ith ro

gue

cano

la p

lant

s

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45A

pr 2

001

Feb

2002

Oct

200

2

Jun

2003

Feb

2004

Oct

200

4

Oct

/Nov

200

5

May

200

6

Jan/

Feb

2007

Oct

200

7

May

200

8

Feb/

Mar

200

9

Nov

200

9

May

201

0

Feb

2011

Nov

201

1

May

201

2

Mar

ch 2

013

Nov

201

3

May

201

4

May

201

5

Feb/

Mar

201

6

44

28

19

23

17

13

18

22

2928

24

29

5

1215

9121213

810

1210

8

13

9

19

10

6 7 79

4 4 3 4 4

16

31

6 68

6

Rogue GMOs in Tasmania - 2 decades

data source: DPIPWE, 2016 et al

Page 17: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Com

mun

ity A

ttitu

des

%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Not safe Don't Know Safe

10%

22%

68%

Australians say GMOs “not safe”

data source: Cormick & Mercer, 2017; n=1225

Page 18: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Pric

e pe

r ton

ne

A$450

A$475

A$500

A$525

A$550

A$575

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Non GM canola (Albany)Non GM canola (Kwinana)GM canola (Albany)GM canola (Kwinana)

data source: CBH,2019, graph: Paull, 2019b

Price Penalty for GM Canola = 7.2%

7.2%

Page 19: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Canola Grade

MarketingDescription

Specified Characteristics FairDescription

CAN “Non GM Canola”

“Certified GM free to Maximum adventitious presence of 0.9% GMO. Suitable for Human Consumption and Biodiesel production. ISCC EU Certified”.

Canola with GM contamination ⩽0.9%

CAG “Canola” “Suitable for Human Consumption and Biodiesel production. ISCC EU Certified”.

GM Canola

Ghost GMOs in WA

after: Paull, 2019b

Page 20: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

GM

Can

ola

WA

%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2014 2015 2016 2017

19%

24%23%

18%

GM canola in WA % - decline

data source: Bucat, 2019

Page 21: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Cot

ton

(Hec

tare

s)

0 ha

100,000 ha

200,000 ha

300,000 ha

400,000 ha

500,000 ha

600,000 ha

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

2010

/11

2011

/12

2012

/13

2013

/14

2014

/15

2015

/16

2016

/17

2017

/18

2018

/19

GMO cotton - Australia - erratic

data source: Cotton Australia, 2019

Page 22: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

The lie that underpins the GMO industry:

Regulators“same”

Patent Office“novel, unique,

different, a real invention”

Substantial Equivalence

Paull, 2008

Page 23: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

BaxterGMO900 ha

MarshOrganic

477 ha

Common boundary

GM

canola

GM

canola

✗✗✗

✗✗✗

Author’s annotations after Supreme Court WA, 2015, Marsh v Baxter

non-GM

canola

2010 @ Kojonup, WA

Page 24: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

What is Genetic Engineering?

Genetic Engineering is what genetic engineers do

Page 25: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Is it a GMO?

• From a GM lab• By a GM engineer• Published in a GM journal• Patented life form

Page 26: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

A phenomenon of the times - the distrust of

‘experts’

MonsantoCargillSyngentaBayerBASFDowCSIROUQQUTRMITMurdoch UniU AdelaideUWASugar Research AustVicDEDJTRVicDPI

>Profits>Budget

PeopleParents WorkersVotersShoppersConsumers

>Health>Well being>Family>Safety>Cuisine

GMO applicants source: OGTR, 2019

Page 27: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

GMO Smugglers Delusion

1. We can smuggle GMOs into the Australian supply chain

2. They’ll never know

3. They’ll never find out

Oh yes they will!

Page 28: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

GMO Triple Jeopardy

1. Not regulated

2. Not declared

3. Law of unintended consequences

Page 29: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

GMO Exceptionalism

5 new techniques

50 new techniques coming

Page 30: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary
Page 31: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Thomas Malthus - inventing catastrophism& wrong since 1798

after Malthus, 1798

Geometric

ArithmeticFood

Population

Famine

Page 32: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

The push to deregulate some GMOs

Disallow these regulations: *to avoid watering down the definition of GMOs*to avoid going it alone in the world*to avoid damaging Australian food and agriculture

Page 33: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

Summary1. Bad science (e.g cane toads, asbestos, smoking, Fukushima et al)2. Bad deregulation (e.g Grenfell Tower, Lacrosse Apartments)3. Only 2 crops: GM canola & GM cotton4. Aus GM canola (491,528 ha)5. Aus GM cotton (282,000 ha)6. Aus Organic agriculture (35,645,038 ha)7. Australian GMOs = 0.4% of world GMOs8. Australian GMOs = 0.2% of Australian agriculture9. Australian Organic Ag = 51% of world Organic Ag10. The foundational lie of GM = ‘Substantial equivalence’ 11. OGTR regulates release of GMOs in Australia12. OGTR has never denied an application (n=167)13. World shoppers do not want GMOs (n=23,000)14. Australians say GMOs are not safe (n=1225)15. GM contaminates (Tas, WA, Marsh v Baxter)16. GM price penalty = 7.2%17. GM is what GM engineers do18. Monsanto is not going to save the world!19. Deregulation - think Grenfell Tower20. Just say NO to GM secrecy21. Just say YES to GMO transparency & regulation22. Disallowing the GMO Amendment protects Aus Food & Agriculture

Page 35: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

ABCA. (2019). Statistics: GM Canola Uptake. Melbourne: Agricultural Biotechnology Council of Australia (ABCA).ABS. (2018). 4627.0 - Land, Management and Farming in Australia, 2016-17. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 26 June.Bucat, J. (2018). 2019 Canola Variety Sowing Guide for Western Australia. Perth: Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development

(DPIRD), Governmnet of Western Australia.Cormick, C., & Mercer, R. (2017). Community Attitudes to Gene Technology. Prepared for The Office of the Gene Technology Regulator,

Canberra, (OGTR). Sydney: Instinct and Reason.Cotton Australia. (2019). Cotton to Market: Statistics. Sydney: Cotton Australia.DPIPWE. (2014). Audit Report - May 2014 - Former Genetically Modified Canola Trial Sites. Hobart: Department of Primary Industries, Parks,

Water and Environment (DPIPWE).GfK. (2017). Decision Factors on What to Eat or Drink: Global GfK Survey (October 2017). London: GfK (Growth from Knowledge).ISAAA. (2018). Pocket K No.16: Biotech Crop Highlights in 2017. Manila: International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications

(ISAAA).Kentish, B. (2017). Grenfell Tower fire: Family of Syrian refugees among those reported missing. The Independent, 14 June.

<independent.co.uk>. Malthus, T. (1798). An Essay on the Principle of Population (1970 edition ed.). Harmondsworth, Middlesex: Penguin Books.New York Times. (2017). Grenfell Tower fire: Mindless deregulationm senseless harm. New York Times, 22 June <nytimes.com>. OGTR. (2019). Table of applications and authorisations for Dealings involving Intentional Release (DIR) into the environment. Canberra: Office of

the Gene Technology Regulator (OGTR). <www.ogtr.gov.au> Parliament of Australia. (2019). Gene Technology Amendment (2019 Measures No. 1) Regulations 2019. Canberra: Federal Register of

Legislation. F2019L00573. 4 April.Paull, J. (2008). Beyond equal: from same but different to the doctrine of substantial equivalence. M/C Journal of Media and Culture, 11(26). Paull, J. (2018). Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) as Invasive Species. Journal of Environment Protection and Sustainable Development,

4(3), 31-37. Paull, J. (2019a). Organic Agriculture in Australia: Attaining the global majority (51%). Journal of Environment Protection and Sustainable

Development, 5(2), 70-74.Paull, J. (2019b). Genetically modified (GM) canola: Price penalties and contaminations. Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research,

17(2), 1-4. SMH. (2019). Have warts, will travel. Sydney Morning Herald (SMH), 19 July <heraldsun.com.au>. Supreme Court WA. (2015). Marsh v Baxter. Perth: Supreme Court of Western Australia. Appeal, Court bundle.Taylor, L. (2019). Average cash price for Can1 and Cag1 for each port zone (figures supplied). Perth: Daily Grain.Weber, K., ed. Cane Toads and Other Rogue Species. 2010, PublicAffairs: New York.Willer, H., & Lernoud, J. (Eds.). (2019). The World of Organic Agriculture: Statistics and Emerging Trends 2019. Frick: Switzerland: Research

Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL) & Bonn: IFOAM-Organics International.

References

Page 36: GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation · the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulation Dr John Paull j.paull@utas.edu.au image source: Kentish, 2017 Parliamentary

GMOs: the wisdom of crowds & the folly of deregulationJohn Paull

AbstractAustralia’s Office of the Gene Technology Regulator (OGTR) is pushing to change the definition of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The proposed changes would remove from regulation some GMOs that are presently subject to regulation by the OGTR. At present GMOs are subject to risk analysis, to safety evaluations, and to GM labelling if used in food. The proposed regulations, if they are not disallowed by the Australian Parliament, will water down the definition of GMOs in Australia, will have Australia applying definitions of GMOs that are different from major trading partners, and they risk damaging the clean and green export reputation of Australia's food and agriculture sectors. The GM proposed deregulation would be bad science and bad deregulation. Australia is a minnow in the world of GMOs, accounting for just 0.4% of the global GMO agricultural hectares. GMOs account for just 0.2% of Australia’s agricultural hectares. Food shoppers of the world reject GM food, led by Chinese consumers of whom 60% reject GM food. OGTR figures reveal that only 10% of Australians agree with the proposition that GMOs are “safe”. GMOs require labelling in Australia, and a direct consequence is that there are no GM food products on Australian supermarket shelves. The global GMO industry is founded on the lie of “substantial equivalence” where GM proponents insist to regulators that their GMO is the “same” as the organism from which it is derived, but to the Patent Office that their GMO is “novel, unique, different, and a real invention” and that it thereby warrants patent protection. Recent failures of deregulation, including London’s Grenfell Tower, Melbourne’s Lacrosse Apartments, and Sydney’s Opal Tower, highlight the follies of deregulation, and the reality that deregulation privatises profits and socialises costs. The case has not been made for deregulating of GMO in Australia, and there are substantial uncalibrated costs, risks and downsides for Australia’s food and agriculture exports industry. The proposed regulations ought to be disallowed.

Keywords: Gene Technology Amendment (2019 Measures No. 1) Regulations 2019, Genetically modified organisms, genetic engineering, biotechnology, regulation, safety, GM canola, GM cotton, patents, Marsh v Baxter, exceptionalism, smuggler’s delusion, triple jeopardy.