globally, successes…

19601962

19641966

19681970

19721974

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20080

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

# Countries with Civil Wars

Minor Wars (25-999 Battledeaths per Annum)

Major Wars (1000+ Battledeaths per Annum)

Total Wars

and challenges…

gang-related violence political violence

cross-border violence organized crime and trafficking

prolonged conflict keeps countries poor

national lessons: the virtuous cycle

Many useful experiences of what works and what does not – Mozambique to Timor Leste, Chile to Indonesia to N. Ireland, g7+ statements

restoring confidence

Core tools: Restoring confidence

Signals: Future policy and priorities

Signals: Immediate actions

Supporting actions

• Citizen security/human security goals

• Key principles and realistic timelines for reforms

• Mix of state, community, NGO and international capacity

• Credible appointments• Transparency in

expenditures• Budget allocations to

priority areas• Redeployment of security

forces/new functions and services

• Removal of abusive/discriminatory policies

• Risk and priority assessments• Communicating costs of

inaction• Simple plans and progress

measures on 2-3 early results• Strategic communication

transforming institutionsCORE TOOLS: TRANSFORMING INSTITUTIONS

Citizen security Justice Jobs and associated services

Foundational reforms and ‘best-fit’ approaches

Security sector reform: Designed to deliver citizen security benefits with realistic performance outcomes; dismantling criminal networks; rural and community policing

Justice sector reform: independence and link to security reforms; basic caseload processing; extending justice services

Phasing anti-corruption measures: demonstrate national resources can be used for public good; use of social accountability mechanisms

Multisectoral community empowerment programs

Employment programs

Humanitarian delivery and social protection

Macroeconomic policy focused on consumer price volatility and employment

realism: transformation timelines

INDICATORYears to threshold at pace of:

fastest 20 fastest over threshold

bureaucratic quality 20 12

corruption 27 14

military in politics 17 10

government effectiveness 36 13

rule of law 41 17

9

international support: challenges

International efforts have helped diminish global violence but are often…

• Too slow…• Too volatile…• Too quick to exit…• Too stove-piped…• Too “post-conflict” focused…insufficient

emphasis on armed violence reduction across a range of contexts

focus on legitimate governance that provides citizen security, justice and jobs

• Reorient assistance and address international capacity gaps

• Mainstream armed violence reduction in development programming

• Move from rhetoric of “coordination” to joint programs that link institution-building for justice, security and jobs

reform internal agency procedures

• Speed• Volatility• Partnerships• Risk and results:

– Better indicators of risks and results to inform dialogue with recipient and donor country stakeholders

– Key is direct measurement of insecurity and citizen trust in institutions

• Practical initiatives (e.g. Bank operationalization, Civcap)

address transnational threats

• Cross-border programming and regional capacity-building

• Added teeth on illicit global financial flows

• Joint action on investigations and prosecutions between the jurisdictions

forge a new consensus

• Respond to messages from citizen

dissatisfaction and protests

• Use experiences of middle income and least

developed countries in reforms

• Revive consensus on norms through global

and regional bodies and recognise leadership

in violence prevention

1.5 billion people live in countries affected by repeated cycles of political and criminal violence—causing human trauma and disrupting development.

Strengthening the institutions that provide citizen security, justice and jobs—and alleviating the international stresses that undermine them—is crucial to break cycles of violence.

At country level, balancing short-term measures to restore confidence and long-term institution-building is key. Four tracks of international reform:• Increase assistance to build legitimate institutions that provide security, justice

and jobs• Reform internal agency procedures• Act globally and regionally, in particular on trafficking• Forge a new consensus between OECD, middle income and least developed

countries

2011 WDR - key messages