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    Global WarmingGlobal Warming

    Science of global warmingScience of global warmingGreenhouse gasesGreenhouse gasesOther contributorsOther contributors

    Observed changesObserved changesTemperatureTemperatureOther indicatorsOther indicators

    The futureThe futureEmissionsEmissionsGlobal consequencesGlobal consequencesConsequences for CaliforniaConsequences for California

    Mitigation EffortsMitigation EffortsGlobalGlobalStateState

    What you can doWhat you can do

    Helen Cox, PhDHelen Cox, PhDGeography DepartmentGeography Department

    California State University, NorthridgeCalifornia State University, Northridge

    The Greenhouse EffectThe Greenhouse Effect

    Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

    Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University Press. http://www.ipcc.ch

    Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University Press. http://www.ipcc.ch

    Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University Press. http://www.ipcc.ch

    Relative Warming Effect of Different GRelative Warming Effect of Different G--H Gases over next 100 yearsH Gases over next 100 years

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University Press (in press, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch

    Components of Components of RadiativeRadiative Forcing, 2005Forcing, 2005Components of Radiative Forcing, 2005

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    Changes in Solar IrradianceChanges in Solar Irradiance

    Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchLean, 2003

    Sulphur aerosols cool climate Sulphur aerosols cool climate directly and indirectlydirectly and indirectly

    Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

    Estimated burden of sulphate aerosol, Estimated burden of sulphate aerosol, in 1990sin 1990s

    Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Source: Sato et al, GISS, NASAHadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

    Cooling Effect of Volcanic AerosolsCooling Effect of Volcanic Aerosols

    Sato et al., GISS, NASA

    Climate change and the greenhouse effect 2005, Met Office, Exeter, UK.

    As has been the case since the first IPCC Assessment Report in 1990, probably the greatest uncertainty in future projections of climate arises from clouds and their interactions with radiation.

    From: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change2001: Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report, CambridgeUniversity Press (2001)

    CloudsCloudsContrails Across the Southeastern U.S. on January 29, 2004

    University of Nebraska-LincolnHigh Plains Regional Climate Center

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    Observed warmingObserved warming

    Helen Cox, 2007

    Observed Global Warming

    Trenberth et al., 2007

    Observed Global Warming

    Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

    Observed Global Warming

    Trenberth et al., 2007

    Patterns of linear global temperature trends from 1979 to 2005 estimated at the surface, and for the troposphere from the surface to about 10 km altitude, from satellite records. Grey areas indicate incomplete data.

    Evidence for global warming?Evidence for global warming?

    The extent of the ice cover on Mt. Kilimanjaro decreased by 81% The extent of the ice cover on Mt. Kilimanjaro decreased by 81% between 1912 and 2000.between 1912 and 2000.

    Schneider, Stephen, Overview of Dangerous Climate Change, Scientific Symposium on Stabilization of Greenhouse Gases, U.K. Met. Office, Feb. 2005.

    Evidence for global warming?Evidence for global warming?

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    Retreat of glaciers

    Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchOerlemans, 2005.

    Evidence for global Evidence for global warming?warming?

    The Larsen B ice shelf disintegrates, setting thousands of ice bergs adrift in the Weddell Sea in 2002.

    720 billion tons of ice!

    Decrease in Arctic Sea-Ice

    Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

    Observed Changes in Sea Level, Temperature and N.H. Snow Cover

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University press, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch

    The futureThe future

    Helen Cox, 2007

    Change in volcanic aerosol

    Source: Sato et al, GISS, NASA

    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    0

    Estimated cooling effect, W

    m2

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    Global Averages of Surface Warming (relative to 1980-99)

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University press, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch

    Predicted Climate Changes in California:Predicted Climate Changes in California:TemperatureTemperature

    Cayan et al., 2006:CEC-500-2005-186-SF

    Low range: 3.0oF 5.4oFMedium range: 5.5oF 7.8oFHigh range: 8.0oF 10.4oF

    Greater warming in summer than winter

    Projected Changes in Temperature

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University press, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch

    Arctic summer seaArctic summer sea--ice could disappear by 2080sice could disappear by 2080sunder IPCC High Emissions scenariounder IPCC High Emissions scenario

    Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

    Projected Changes in Precipitation(for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University press, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch

    Solutions?Solutions?

    Helen Cox, 2007

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    Required reductions in CORequired reductions in CO22 concentrationsconcentrations

    Website: http://www.ipcc.chWebsite: http://www.ipcc.chWebsite: http://www.ipcc.ch

    Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

    Mitigation Efforts: Kyoto ProtocolMitigation Efforts: Kyoto Protocol

    World Resources Institute, 2005

    The Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement to reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases, came into effect on February 16, 2005.The protocol sets mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions for each of the party nations with the goal of reducing total globalemissions to 5.2% below their 1990 values by 2012.166 countries have now ratified the agreement but not the U.S.

    Helen Cox, 2007

    Per Capita EmissionsPer Capita EmissionsWorld Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions

    0.00

    5.00

    10.00

    15.00

    20.00

    25.00

    1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

    tonn

    es c

    arbo

    n di

    oxid

    e

    Data source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html Helen Cox, 2007

    U.S. Emissions by GasU.S. Emissions by Gas

    Source: http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads/2007GHGFastFacts.pdf

    U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 2005 broken down by gas type

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    Helen Cox, 2007

    U.S. Emissions by UseU.S. Emissions by Use

    Source: http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads/2007GHGFastFacts.pdf

    U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 2005 broken down by sector

    Helen Cox, 2007

    Energy Sources for U.S.Energy Sources for U.S.

    Data source: http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html

    Energy sources for U.S. in 2005

    Mitigation Efforts: California AB32Mitigation Efforts: California AB32

    California is the 12th largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world

    On June 1st, 2005 Governor Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order S-3-05, establishing Greenhouse gas targets for the State.

    On September 27, 2006 Governor Schwarzenegger signed Assembly Bill 32, California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, authored by Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles).

    Mitigation Efforts: CaliforniaMitigation Efforts: California

    AB 32 requires that the statewide greenhouse gas emissions be cut to their 1990 levels by 2020. This will require a cut in emissions from the States largest emitters by about 25%.

    Beginning in 2008 the California Air Resources Board will require industry to report on their G-H gas emissions.

    Reductions will be continued to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.

    In July, 2006 an agreement was signed between California and theUnited Kingdom to create an international partnership to fight against global warming.

    On Jan 18, 2007, a new Low Carbon Fuel Standard was introduced for transportation fuels. This requires fuel providers to reduce the carbon content of passenger vehicle fuels sold in California by 10% by the year 2020. Transportation accounts for 40% of Californias GHG emissions, and 96% of these fuels are petroleum based.

    What you can doWhat you can doSupport and encourage local alternative energy projects.

    In 2005 CSUN installed a 1 megawatt fuel cell power plant the single largest fuel cell power plant at any university in the world. The power plant provides environmentally friendly power to the campus, and reduces the universitys CO2 emissions by 60 million pounds during its lifetime. The plant will generate electricity for the universitys facilities and surplus heat for buildings, showers and food service hot water, and for heating the swimming pool.

    In 2001, CSUN installed six microturbines through a partnership with the South Coast Air Quality District and

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