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Global Warming Mitigation Technology

Promotion Project, FY2014

Feasibility Study on Mega Solar, Hybrid Mini Grid and Rural Electrification for

Communities by Solar PV System in Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and Republic

of Kenya

March, 2015

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)

NTT Data Institute of Management Consulting, Inc.

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CONTENTS 1 Overview of the study .................................................................................................... 4

1.1 Background and Objective of the Study ............................................................... 4 1.1.1 Background of the study ................................................................................. 4 1.1.2 Objective of the study ..................................................................................... 5

1.2 Overview of each study .......................................................................................... 6 1.2.1 Outline of each study ...................................................................................... 6 1.2.2 Study Items ..................................................................................................... 9

1.3 Structure of the Study .......................................................................................... 12 1.4 Applied Technology ............................................................................................... 13

1.4.1 Quality Assurance and Long-term Reliability ............................................ 14 1.4.2 Overseas Business Development ................................................................. 16 1.4.3 Technology Applied for the Hibrid Mini-grids ............................................. 19 1.4.4 Future Direction for the Business Development ........................................ 20

2 Background Information and Business Environment .............................................. 21 2.1 Background Information and Business Environment ............................................ 21

2.1.1 General Information about Ethiopia ........................................................... 21 2.1.2 Current Situation of Electric Power ............................................................ 25 2.1.3 Environmental Policy in Ethiopia................................................................ 28 2.1.4 Business Environment in Ethiopia .............................................................. 32 2.1.5 Issues in Terms of Project Implementation ................................................. 33

2.2 Background information and Business Environment in Kenya ....................... 36 2.2.1 General Information about Kenya ............................................................... 36 2.2.2 Current Situation of Electric Power ............................................................ 40 2.2.3 Environmental Policy in Kenya ......................................................................... 41 2.2.3 Business Environment in Kenya ................................................................. 43 2.2.4 Issues in Terms of Project Implementation ................................................. 47

3 Consideration of specific plans ................................................................................... 48 3.1 Mega Solar Project in Ethiopia ......................................................................... 48

3.1.1 Examination and selection of mega solar project site ................................ 48 3.1.2 Examination of the system ........................................................................... 49

3.2 Rural Electrification for Communities by Solar and Micro Hydro Power in Ethiopia ............................................................................................................................ 54

3.2.1 Essence of micro hydro hybrid ..................................................................... 54 3.2.2 Examination and selection of project site.................................................... 55

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3.2.3 Consideration of the system ......................................................................... 55 3.3 Hybrid Mini-Grid Project in Kenya .................................................................. 61

3.3.1 Essence of hybrid mini-grid .......................................................................... 61 3.3.2 Examination and selection of project site.................................................... 62 3.3.3 Consideration of the system ......................................................................... 63 3.3.4 Consideration of the system ......................................................................... 71

4 Analysis of Economic Effect for the Project Implementation ................................... 79 4.1 "Mega Solar Project" in Ethiopia ......................................................................... 79

4.1.1 Analysis of Potential of Mega Solar Project ................................................ 79 4.1.2 Economics of mega solar power generation ................................................. 80 4.1.3 Economicsize of mega solar power generation ............................................ 81

4.2 "Rural Electrification for Communities by Solar and Micro Hydro Power" in Ethiopia ............................................................................................................................ 82

4.2.1 Analysis of the potential ............................................................................... 82 4.2.2 Economics and economic size ....................................................................... 84

4.3 "Hybrid Mini-Grid Project" in Kenya .................................................................. 86 4.3.1 Economic analysis of the hybrid mini-grids ................................................ 89 4.3.2 Economic size of hybrid mini-grids .............................................................. 91

5 Consideration of Emission Reduction Methodology Applicable to the Project Implementation and Trial Calculation of Emission Reduction Forecasts based on the Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 92

5.1 "Mega Solar Project" in Ethiopia ......................................................................... 92 5.1.1 Summary of issues in preparing methodology ............................................ 92 5.1.2 Hearings with stakeholders ......................................................................... 92 5.1.3 Point of view on emission factor for the national grid ................................ 94 5.1.4 Methodology, and emission reduction .......................................................... 94

5.2 "Rural Electrification for Communities by Solar and Micro Hydro Power" in Ethiopia ............................................................................................................................ 94

5.2.1 Summary of issues in preparing methodology ............................................ 94 5.2.2 Hearings with stakeholders ......................................................................... 95 5.2.3 Methodology and emission reduction .......................................................... 95 5.2.4 Ripple effect ................................................................................................... 97

5.3 "Hybrid Mini-Grid Project" in Kenya .................................................................. 98 5.3.1 Summary of issues in preparing methodology ............................................ 98 5.3.2 Hearings with stakeholders ......................................................................... 98 5.3.3 Developing methodology ............................................................................... 98

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5.3.4 Trial calculation of emission reduction ...................................................... 101 5.3.5 Ripple effect ................................................................................................. 101

6 Seminar for government officials of the partner country ....................................... 103 6.1 Study tour and seminar on Kyocera solar power generation system during the training in Japan ........................................................................................................... 103 6.2 Report of workshop ............................................................................................. 104

6.2.1 Ethiopia ........................................................................................................ 104 6.2.2 Kenya ........................................................................................................... 109

7 Way forward and Conclusion ..................................................................................... 116 7.1 Mega Solar Project in Ethiopia .......................................................................... 116

7.1.1 SWOT analysis ............................................................................................. 116 7.1.2 Stakeholder analysis ................................................................................... 120

7.2 Rural Electrification for Communities by Solar and Micro Hydro Power in Ethiopia .......................................................................................................................... 121

7.2.1 SWOT analysis ............................................................................................ 121 7.2.2 Stakeholder analysis .....................................

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