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  • 1. GLOBAL WARMING? BY: Ryan S. Welch 1LT, AR, TXARNG

2. OUTLINE What is the normal or average Earth Temperature? Is the Earth Warming? Is there a scientific consensus on Anthropogenic (man made) Global Warming? Is Carbon Dioxide (CO2) a pollutant? Can anthropogenic CO2 production cause a runaway greenhouse gas affect? 3. OUTLINE Do warmer temperatures cause more hurricanes? Do warmer temperatures cause more human deaths than cooler temperatures? Are the Earths icecaps and glaciers melting causing an accelerated sea level rise which will flood coastal cities and islands? Are Polar Bears running out of habitat? 4. What is the normal or average Earth Temperature? 5. What is the normal or average Earth Temperature? It depends on how far back you go. The 20th century mean global temperature is 12.9 degrees Celsius. For the US (below) it is slightly higher. 6. What is the normal or average Earth Temperature? Here is the 1000 year average and we are currently about .5 degrees warmer mostly because the Earth has warmed since the Little Ice Age which dominates this period. But the Earth is not currently as warm (by 1.5 degrees) as it was during the Medieval Warm Period. 7. What is the normal or average Earth Temperature? Here is the 3000 year average of the Sargasso Sea surface temperature of 23 degrees Celsius. Notice that our current temperature is below the average for this period. 8. What is the normal or average Earth Temperature? Here is the 11,000 year average of around 15 degrees Celsius which is 2 degrees warmer than now. 9. What is the normal or average Earth Temperature? Here is the 450,000 year temperature record with an average below 6 degrees Celsius. That is 7 degrees cooler, but that includes the four Ice Ages. 10. What is the normal or average Earth Temperature? Here is the 600 million year temperature record showing a 22 degree Celsius cap between Glacial periods. Notice that is 9 degrees warmer than it is now. 11. What is the normal or average Earth Temperature? The Bottom Line: There is no normal temperature. The Earths temperature is always changing. In no record of the Earths temperature are there any flat stable periods. For the vast majority of the Earths history it has been significantly warmer than it is now. 12. Is the Earth Warming? 13. Is the Earth Warming? Satellite data goes back 29 years showing global cooling since a warming spike during 1998. 14. Is the Earth Warming? The Earths cooling is in contrast with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions of steady warming 15. Is the Earth Warming? This is the same graph showing US surface temperatures but the one the NOAA/IPCC uses is adjusted upwards. 16. Is the Earth Warming? The graph on the right is from the IPCC but both the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warming period have been smoothed out to a nearly straight line so it shows only the recent warming. 17. Is the Earth Warming? The Earth has been cooling significantly since 2002 according to satellite and land based records. 18. Is the Earth Warming? The Bottom Line: No, the Earths has been cooling since 1998. Nearly all of the warming that has occurred in this century is a continuance of the recovery from the Little Ice Age. 19. Is there a scientific consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming? 20. Is there a scientific consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming? Most scientists do not agree with the CO2 global warming premise! In the United States alone more than 31,072 scientists have signed a petition rejecting Anthropogenic Global Warming and the Kyoto global warming agreement (see below) and of these, 9,021 have PhDs, including Dr. Edward Teller. 21. Is there a scientific consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming? Dr. Benny Peiser of Liverpool John Moores University UK, conducted a search of peer-reviewed literature on the ISI Web of Science database between 1993 and 2003. He found that out of 1,117 documents using the term global climate change only 13 - a mere 1% - explicitly endorse, and fewer than 1/3 implicitly endorsed the consensus of Anthropogenic Global Warming. 22. Is there a scientific consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming? Over 650 dissenting scientists from around the globe challenged man-made global warming claims made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former Vice President Al Gore. This is documented in the 231-page U.S. Senate Minority Report. 23. Is there a scientific consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming? An analysis released in September 2007 on the IPCC scientific review process by climate data analyst John McLean, revealed that the UN IPCC peer-review process is an illusion. Among the 23 independent reviewers just 4 explicitly endorsed the chapter with its hypothesis that stated it is very highly likely that greenhouse gas forcing has been the dominant cause of the observed global warming over the last 50 years." 24. Is there a scientific consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming? The Bottom Line: No, there is no consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming. There is a vast amount of peer-reviewed scientific studies which refute and debunk nearly every anthropogenic global warming claim. Consensus, even if there was such a thing, proves nothing. Science is proved by reproducible experimentations or provable formulas of which there are none for AGW. 25. Is CO2 a pollutant? 26. Is CO2 a pollutant? Carbon Dioxide is a naturally occurring atmospheric trace gas accounting for only 0.04% of atmosphere. CO2 is an essential part of Respiration and Photosynthesis. That means it is essential to life on earth and not a pollutant. Nitrogen 78% Oxygen 21% Argon 0.9% Carbon Dioxide 0.04% 27. Is CO2 a pollutant? CO2 is not accumulating in the atmosphere as fast as projected. 98% of all CO2 that is produced by human activity is absorbed by plants and the oceans. 28. Is CO2 a pollutant? The Earths average CO2 level for the last 600 Million years is over 2500 parts per million (ppm). The Earths current CO2 concentration level is only about 385 ppm. Plant growth shuts down below 200 ppm. 29. Is CO2 a pollutant? As CO2 levels rise plant growth increases. The recommended CO2 concentration for greenhouses is between 1000-1300 ppm. 30. Is CO2 a pollutant? 97% of CO2 in the earth's atmosphere comes from nature, not from man. Volcanoes, oceans, swamps, rice paddies, fallen leaves, and even insects and bacteria produce carbon dioxide, as well as methane. Termites alone emit ten times more CO2 than all the factories and automobiles in the world. 31. Is CO2 a pollutant? The Bottom Line: No, CO2 is a naturally occurring trace gas essential for life on Earth. For most of the last 6 million years of Earths history there have been much higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and life thrived. There is a negligible correlation between further increases atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature which are overwhelmed by natural processes and inputs. Plant growth and thus humanity would benefit from increased levels of atmospheric CO2. 32. Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a runaway greenhouse gas effect? 33. Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a runaway greenhouse gas effect? Carbon Dioxide has the lowest solar energy absorption of all the atmospheric greenhouse gasses. CO2 and H2O overlap and cannot both absorb the same energy. 34. Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a runaway greenhouse gas effect? CO2 only accounts for 3.618% of all warming attributed to greenhouse gasses. Human activities account for only 3% of the atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. 35. Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a runaway greenhouse gas effect? The effect of Carbon Dioxide on temperature is logarithmic and thus climate sensitivity decreases with increasing concentration. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, increased atmospheric Carbon Dioxide has increased the temperature in the atmosphere by 0.1 degree. 36. Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a runaway greenhouse gas effect? Pre-industrial Carbon Dioxide levels are a near saturation levels for greenhouse effect. If atmospheric Carbon Dioxide levels reached 1000 ppm would only account for a 0.4 degree increase in temperature. At the current rate of 2 ppm every year it would take 307 years to achieve 1000 ppm. 37. Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a runaway greenhouse gas effect? In four of five periods since 1860 Carbon Dioxide levels and temperature trends go in opposite directions. There is no cause and effect between Carbon Dioxide level increase and temperature increase. 38. Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a runaway greenhouse gas effect? Temperature is not well correlated with Anthropogenic CO2 but it is well correlated with Solar Activity. The Sun affects Global Temperature more than atmospheric CO2. 39. Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a runaway greenhouse gas affect? All climate models assume that relative humidity remains approximately constant with global warming Data shows a 21% drop of relative humidity at 9 km altitude where the greenhouse effect is supposed to happen. 40. Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a runaway greenhouse gas effect? Water vapor is supposed to cause a huge positive feedback to atmospheric warming (hence the basis of the runaway greenhouse gas effect). But water vapor reduces the Optical Depth and instead is a negative feedback to warming. Water vapor has offset 78% of the greenhouse effect of CO2 change in the last 60 years. 41. Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a runaway greenhouse gas effect? This chart from the IPCC shows that the 3% of anthropogenic CO2 amounts to a total man made contributio