global technology market update

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Around the World Steve Koenig Director, Industry Analysis CEA In 60 Minutes Global Technology Market Update

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Page 1: Global Technology Market Update

Around the World

Steve KoenigDirector, Industry Analysis

CEA

In 60 Minutes

Global TechnologyMarket Update

Page 2: Global Technology Market Update

Retail CE sales tracking at more than 340,000 retail stores in 80 countries.

Tracks U.S. factory to dealers shipments in more than 50 CE categories on a monthly and weekly basis.

+ =Digital World

TCG Yearly Forecasts

Page 3: Global Technology Market Update

Analysis Considerations: Geographical, Financial

• North America• Western Europe• Developed APAC

• Exchange Rates (FX)• Sales Tax• Tech Subsidies

• Central /Eastern Europe

• Latin America

• Emerging APAC

• Middle East/ Africa

Mature Developing

Page 4: Global Technology Market Update

GLOBAL MARKET:The Global Market for Technology

Hit a New Peak in 2013

Page 5: Global Technology Market Update

Global Tech Markets Back to Growth in 2013

Global Tech Device Sales Revenue

Source: GfK Digital World

2014 Fcst$1055bn

Smartphone & Tablet growth shifts further to low end

2009$836bn

Global recession

2010$922bn

Economic recovery

2011$1041bn

Smartphone, tablet PC & emerging market strength

offset sluggish de-veloped markets

+10%

+13% -1%

+3%

2013 Fcst$1068bn

Smartphone & Tablet growthoffset decline

in other products

-1%

2012$1034bn

$ value hit by currency

weakness outside

North America

Page 6: Global Technology Market Update

Spending Growth in 2013• Sales growth for Tablets and Smartphones slowing,

but remains robust compared to other categories. • LCD TV still growing in low single digits. • Year-end push from next-gen game consoles. • Some spending momentum in North America.

Page 7: Global Technology Market Update

Reasons for Spending Decline in 2014

• Unit growth in tablets and smartphones reliant on low-end devices. ASPs coming down fast.

• Lower-end devices (and ASPs) required to penetrate lower consumer tiers of emerging markets.

• Developing market spending growth curbed somewhat• Not enough to offset spending declines in developed

markets and CE categories.

Volumes

Product / Pricing Mix

Impact to Tech Spending

$1.055 Trillion (-1%)

Page 8: Global Technology Market Update

REGIONS:Regional Spending Growth Picture

in 2014 Remains Mixed

Page 9: Global Technology Market Update

Developing Markets Revenue Growth Momentum to Slow

Global Tech Device Retail Sales Revenue Growth

Source: GfK Digital World

0%

6%

2%

1%

-8%

-1%

-6%

-1%

2014 Fcst

C&E Europe/CIS

Middle East & Africa

Latin America

Emerging Asia

Developed Asia

North America

Western Europe

World

2%

6%

2%

15%

-11%

3%

-3%

3%

2013

Page 10: Global Technology Market Update

50%

2010 2012 2014 Fcst.

MatureMarkets

DevelopingMarkets

$549bn $564bn $530bn

$373bn $470bn$525bn

Growth (2014 vs 2010)

55%60% 57%

48%

$$593bn $553bn

2011 2013 Est.

$447m $514bn

Global Tech Spending Finds Equilibrium

Global Tech Device Retail Sales Revenue Mix

Source: GfK Digital World

52%

50%45%43%40%

-3%

41%

Page 11: Global Technology Market Update

Emerging Asia Now Leads Tech Spending

2010 2011 2012 2013 Fcst 2014 Fcst

200 212 194 189 177

223 250 250 257 254

126131 121 107 99

181221 246 282 286

72

86 74 76 7868

76 8489 95

52

64 6667 67

C&E Europe/CIS

Middle East & Africa

Latin America

Emerging Asia

Developed Asia

North America

Western Europe

$1034bn$1041bn $1068bn

$922bn

$1055bn

Page 12: Global Technology Market Update

Has North America’s Share Peaked?

2010 2011 2012 2013 Fcst 2014 Fcst

22% 20% 19% 18% 17%

24% 24% 24% 24% 24%

14% 13% 12% 10% 9%

20% 21% 24% 26% 27%

8% 8% 7% 7% 7%

7% 7% 8% 8% 9%

6% 6% 6% 6% 6%

C&E Europe/CIS

Middle East & Africa

Latin America

Emerging Asia

Developed Asia

North America

Western Europe

$1034bn$1041bn $1068bn$922bn $1055bn

Page 13: Global Technology Market Update

DEVICES:Mobile, Connected Devices

Continue to Drive Tech Spending

Page 14: Global Technology Market Update

Smartphone & Tablet Revenue Growth offsetting contraction elsewhere, for now

Global Tech Device Sales Revenue

Source: GfK Digital World

20092010

20112012

2013 Provis

ional

2014 Foreca

st

Smartphones and Tablets

Other Tech Devices

43%

Page 15: Global Technology Market Update

Tablets: Lower-Priced Models Boosting Adoption in Emerging Markets

Global Tablet PC Unit Sales Mix

Source: GfK Digital World

31%

29%

40%

2012

25%

42%

33%

2014

Other Developed MarketsEmerging MarketsNorth America

Page 16: Global Technology Market Update

Smartphones: Emerging Markets Take The Lead As Lower-Priced Devices Open Up The Mass Market

Global Smartphone Unit Sales Mix

Source: GfK Digital World

52%48%

2011

30%

70%

2014

Developed Markets

Emerging Markets

Page 17: Global Technology Market Update

2010$444

2013$ 345

2014$297

Global Smartphone Average Unsubsidized Selling Price in USDSource: GfK Demand Projector Dec 2013

Smartphones - Global ASP Trend

Page 18: Global Technology Market Update

Spending (Revenue) on Smartphones & Tablets SlowingAs Unit Growth Shifts Further To Low-End

Year on Year Change in Global Tech Device Sales Revenue ($)

Source: GfK Digital World

-34%-44%

21%

6%9%

2014 Fcst

MOBILE PHONE

PLASMA TV

PORTABLE MEDIA PLAYER

DVD PLAYER/RECORDER inc HD & Blu-ray

CAR NAVIGATION

DIGITAL STILL CAMERA

DESKTOP PC

MOBILE PC

MONITOR

VIDEO GAMES CONSOLE

CAMCORDER

INKJET PRINTER & MFD

LASER CARTRIDGE

INKJET CARTRIDGE

HOME AUDIO

LASER PRINTER & MFD

LCD TV

SMARTPHONE

TABLET PC

-39%

-10%

27%30%

2013 Prov

Page 19: Global Technology Market Update

Spending Shift to Mobile Computing Devices Slowing

Global Tech Device Sales Revenue Mix - Top Tier Products

Source: GfK Digital World

2010 2011 2012 2013 Prov

2014 Fcst0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%Digital Still Camera

Desk PC

LCD TV

Feature Phone

Mobile PC

Tablet PC

Smartphone

79% ofSpending

Page 20: Global Technology Market Update

Global TV Sales Trends• Avg. Screen Size Continues to Grow• 3DTV growth tapering off. Top vendors not pressing• Smart TV: popular as well in China • New Tech Ushers in Next Wave of Innovation

– UHD: Expect global shipments of 8.7 million in 2014.– Curved displays – OLED (<500k units in 2014)

Source: GfK Boutique Research, CEA

Page 21: Global Technology Market Update

Around the World

Steve KoenigDirector, Industry Analysis

CEA

@KoenigSteve

[email protected]

In 60 Minutes