global syngas overview - 2018 · upstream | midstream | downstream | fuel & transport global...

UPSTREAM | MIDSTREAM | DOWNSTREAM | FUEL & TRANSPORT

Global Syngas Overview - 2018

www.stratasadvisors.com

Presenter: Habib Khan

Contact: John Paisie Executive Vice-President

[email protected]

TEL +1.713.260.4628 / MOBILE +1.832.517.7544

mailto:[email protected]

© Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 2

• Stratas Advisors is a global consulting and advisory firm that

covers the full spectrum of the energy sector and closely

linked industries

• The world’s leading businesses, governments and

institutions turn to us for data, analysis and insight (IOCs,

NOCs, independents, energy consumers and financial

entities)

• We help our clients achieve tangible results through informed

strategic decision-making and implementation planning

• Key differentiators include

– Global coverage with deep local knowledge

– Integrated analysis across the entire energy value

chain, including macro-level analysis (geopolitics,

macro-economics, policies and regulations)

• Our research and consulting staff comprises professionals

located on the ground in key global energy market centers

• Combined, our team brings over 500 years of combined

energy industry expertise, including

– Technical (Petroleum Engineers, Geologists, Process Engineers)

– Economists

– Political Scientists

– Financial Analysts

Who We Are

www.stratasadvisors.com

http://www.stratasadvisors.com/


Integrated Service Offering

Upstream

Macro & Geo-Political

Midstream

Downstream

Fuel & Transport

LT & ST Price Forecasting


Stratas Advisors Syngas Capabilities

• Understanding the key drivers, metrics, and

developments across processes in the

Global Syngas industry

– Methanol, GTL & CTL, Ammonia, UCG, Direct

Reduced Iron, and many more.

• Anchored by industry-leading database of

syngas projects across feedstocks and

outputs worldwide.

– Natural Gas, Coal, Waste, Biomass,

Residuals, coke-oven gas.

• Evaluating projects and proponents through

qualitative and quantitative metrics

– Corporate and process analysis

• Forecasting plant developments, capacity

additions, and changes in output

• Economic evaluation for production costs,

CAPEX, OPEX, and potential project

revenue and pricing.

Strength Across Processes


Agenda

• Global Syngas Market

– Capacity share by application

– Capacity share by feedstock

– Capacity share by product

– CAPEX in investment projects by product

• Global Syngas Market Trends

– Global syngas market trends by application

– Global syngas market trends by feedstock

– Global syngas market trends by product

• Syngas Project Scores

• Conclusions

Global Syngas Markets


Global Syngas Capacity Share by ApplicationCapacity as percentage of application

• 74.5%, of syngas capacity

are employed in chemicals

production – nitrogenous

fertilizer, methanol, industrial

chemicals, DME etc.

• 10.6% of capacity provides

synthetic natural and gaseous

fuel.

• 11.6% is in GTL and CTL

sector.

• 3.3% capacity is used for

power production.

Capacity Share by Application


Global Syngas Capacity Share by FeedstockCapacity as percentage of feedstock

• Coal and natural gas are the

two dominant feedstocks for

syngas

• Goal’s share is 48.3% and

natural gas’ share is 46.5%

• Refining residual such as

petcoke, refinery residue and

coke oven gas serves as

4.3% syngas feedstock

• Biomass and waste constitute

less than 1% of syngas

feedstock

Capacity Share by Feedstock


Global Syngas Capacity Share by ProductCapacity as percentage of products

• 33.8% syngas capacities

serve nitrogenous fertilizer

production.

• 22% is used for methanol

production

• 11.6% is used for liquid fuels

such as gasoline an diesel

production

• 10.6% produces synthetic

natural gas and gaseous fuel

Capacity Share by Product


Global Syngas in-Development CAPEX Share

by ProductCAPEX in projects by products

• Syngas projects for fertilizer

and liquid fuels are worth

USD 24 billions each

• Syngas projects for methanol

and power generation are

worth USD 15 billions each

CAPEX by Product Units: Billion USD and %

Global Syngas Market Trends


Global Syngas Capacity Trend by ApplicationKey Insight: Capacity Trends by Application

• Growth of syngas capacity

was very strong from 2010 to

2017

• CAGR for chemical, gaseous

fuels, liquid fuels and power

generation were 10%, 26%,

18% and 12% respectively.

• CAGR for these applications

from 2018 to 2024 are

projected to be 3%, 16%, 9%

and 5% respectively. Low oil

price is the main cause

behind this slow down.

• As oil price keeps rising,

number of announced

projects will pick up after

2020.

• Syngas capacity CAGR for

chemicals, gaseous fuels,

liquid fuels and power

generation are projected to

be 5%, 20%, 12% and 15%

after 2024.

Capacity Trend by Application Units: MW Thermal


Global Syngas Capacity Trend by FeedstockKey Insight: Feedstock Trends

• Refining Residual

gasification- small share, but

largest applications under

development: Reliance

Industries, Saudi Aramco etc.

• Coal gasification almost

exclusively headed Asia’s

way, with a majority in China.

Supported with long-term

high NG and crude pricing.

• Natural gas will gain

percentage of feedstock

share.

Capacity Trend by Feedstock Units: MW Thermal


Global Syngas Capacity Trend by ProductKey Insight: Product Trends

• Syngas capacity for fertilizer

production will grow steadily.

• Methanol, SNG/gaseous

fuels and liquid fuels from

syngas will grow at higher

rate in the long run.

• Overall feed trend will

definitely follow capacity

trend – a relatively slow

growth till 2024. Growth will

increase afterwards.

Capacity Trend by Product Units: MW Thermal


Long Term Crude Oil Price Outlook1995-2040

• Oil price bottomed in

early 2016

• Crash in oil price caused

slowdown in syngas

capacity expansion. A lot

of announced projects got

cancelled.

• Oil price is projected to

keep moving upward with

short term price

fluctuations.

• Higher oil prices will

provide driving force

syngas capacity

expansion for chemicals,

liquid fuels and gaseous

fuels.

Syngas Project Scores


Syngas Projects Scoring by Feedstock

Plant Country TypeFeedstock

CategoryOperator

Analyst

Factored

Score

Projection

Start Year

JCCICL-Tongliao Chemical

ComplexChina

Coal to chemicals (ammonia,

urea, olefins, etc.)Coal

Jilin Connell Chemical Industry

Company Limited (JCCICL)403 2018

Yingde Gases Group Co.,

Ltd ProjectChina Coal to hydrogen Coal Yingde Gases Group Co., Ltd 415 2018

Zhong'an United Coal and

Chemical Co. LtdChina




Chemical Co. Ltd383 2019

Jinmei Huayu Coal

Chemical Co China Coal to methanol Coal

Shanxi Jinmei Huayu Coal

Chemical Co Ltd460 2019

Yitai Group Ordos CTL 2 China Coal to liquids Coal Yitai Group 424 2020

CNOOC/Datong Shanxi

SNGChina

Coal to synthetic natural gas

(SNG)Coal CNOOC/ Datong Coal Mine Group 420 2018

Yili Xintian Coal Chemical

Co., LtdChina

Coal to synthetic natural gas

(SNG)Coal Yili Xintian Coal Chemical Co., Ltd 460 2018

Lu'an Group CTL China Coal to liquids Coal Lu'an Group 405 2018

Inner Mongolia Wuyuan

Jinniu Coal Chemical Co.,

Ltd

ChinaCoal to chemicals (ammonia,


Inner Mongolia Wuyuan Jinniu Coal

Chemical Co., Ltd415 2019

China Pingmei Shenma

Group China


urea, olefins, etc.)Coal China Pingmei Shenma Group 379 2019

Coal




CategoryOperator

Analyst

Factored

Score

Projection

Start Year

Ramagundam Fertilizer Plant GTC 2 India NG to chemicalsNatural GasNational Fertilizers Limited (NFL)

and Engineers India limited (EIL)351 2019

Turkmenistan GTL Turkmenistan NG to liquids Natural Gas Ronesans Endustri Tesisleri 459 2019

Busher 16th Olefins and Methanol

ComplexIran NG to chemicalsNatural Gas Bushehr Petrochemical Co. 233 2020

Oltin Yol GTL Uzbekistan NG to liquids Natural Gas Sasol 477 2020

Kingisepp Ammonia Plant Russia NG to chemicalsNatural GasEuroChem Mineral and Chemical

Company289 2018

South Louisiana Methanol (SLM) USA NG to chemicalsNatural Gas South Louisiana Methanol L.P 334 2023

Kaveh Methanol Iran NG to chemicalsNatural Gas Kaveh Methanol Co. 352 2019

Natural Gas




CategoryOperator

Analyst

Factored

Score

Projection

Start Year

Jamnagar Petcoke

GasificationIndia Petcoke to syngas Petcoke Reliance Industries (RIL) 450 2018

Kitimat Clean Upgrader CanadaOil residue to

liquidsBitumen Kitimat Clean Ltd. 160 2024

NWU/CNR Bitumen

RefineryCanada Bitumen to liquids Bitumen

North West Upgrading

Inc.430 2018

Jizan IGCC Power Plant Saudi ArabiaOil residue to

powerOil Residue Saudi Aramco 498 2019

Refinery Residue




CategoryOperator

Analyst

Factored

Score

Projection

Start Year

Glasgow WTE (Glasgow

Recycling and Renewable

Energy Center)

United Kingdom Waste to power Waste Viridor 390 2018

Birmingham Bio-Power United Kingdom Biomass to power BiomassBirmingham Bio

Power Ltd.383 2018

Welland WTE United Kingdom Biomass to power Biomass Balfour Beatty 365 2018

Belfast Bombardier WTE United Kingdom Waste to power Waste Full Circle Generation 364 2018

Yamagata WTE Japan Waste to power WasteMitsubishi Heavy

Industries358 2018

Stockton-On-Tees WTE United Kingdom Waste to power BiomassPort Clarence

Biomass311 2018

Beddington WTE United Kingdom Waste to power Waste Viridor 263 2019

Pilbara Waste to Energy Australia Waste to power WasteNew Energy

Corporation219 2020

Red Rock Biofuels BTL USA Biomass to liquids Biomass Red Rock Biofuels 210 2020

Biomass/Waste


Syngas Projects Scoring by End ProductNitrogenous Fertilizer

Plant Country OperatorFeedstock

Category

Capacity,

mmtpa

(ammonia/

urea)

Analyst

Factored

Score

Projection

Start Year

JCCICL-Tongliao Chemical

ComplexChina

Jilin Connell Chemical Industry Company

Limited (JCCICL)Coal 0.24 403 2018

Ramagundam Fertilizer

Plant GTC 2India

National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) and

Engineers India limited (EIL)Natural Gas 1/1.40 351 2019

Kingisepp Ammonia Plant Russia EuroChem Mineral and Chemical Company Natural Gas 1 289 2018

Inner Mongolia Wuyuan

Jinniu Coal Chemical Co.,

Ltd

ChinaInner Mongolia Wuyuan Jinniu Coal Chemical

Co., LtdCoal 0.3 415 2019

China Pingmei Shenma

Group China China Pingmei Shenma Group Coal 0.16 379 2019

PhosAgro Fertilizer Plant Russia Phosagro Natural Gas 1/0.5 322 2019

Lordegan Ammonia/Urea Iran Lordegan Urea Natural Gas 1/1.075 317 2019

Kermanshah Petrochemical

IndustriesIran Kermanshah Petrochemical Industries Natural Gas 0.4/0.66 295 2021


Syngas Projects Scoring by End ProductMethanol


Category

Methanol

Capacity,

mmtpa

Analyst

Factored

Score

Projection

Start Year

Jinmei Huayu Coal Chemical Co ChinaShanxi Jinmei Huayu Coal

Chemical Co LtdCoal 1.00 460 2019

Busher 16th Olefins and Methanol

ComplexIran Bushehr Petrochemical Co. Natural Gas 1.65 233 2020

Qinghai Damei Coal Industry

Stock Co., LtdChina

Qinghai Damei Coal Industry

Stock Co., LtdCoke Oven Gas 1.80 339 2018


Chemical Co. LtdChina


Chemical Co. LtdCoal 1.70 383 2019

Jiutai Energy MTO ChinaJiutai Energy Inner Mongolia

Co., LtdCoal 1.80 472 2019

IGP-Gulf Coast Methanol Park USA IGP Methanol LLC (IGP) Natural Gas 7.00 2028

South Louisiana Methanol (SLM) USASouth Louisiana Methanol

L.PNatural Gas 1.825 334 2023

Kaveh Methanol Iran Kaveh Methanol Co. Natural Gas 2.31 352 2019

Tula IMAP Facility Russia Schekinoazot Natural Gas 0.45 301 2018

Dena Petrochemical Co. Iran Dena Petrochemical Co. Natural Gas 1.65 288 2021


Syngas Projects Scoring by End ProductLiquid Fuels

Plant Country TypeCapacity

(Mbpd)Operator

Analyst

Factored

Score

Projection

Start Year

Yitai Group Ordos CTL 2 China CTL 44 Yitai Group 424 2020

Lu'an Group CTL China CTL 37 Lu'an Group 405 2018

Turkmenistan GTL Turkmenistan GTL 3Ronesans Endustri

Tesisleri459 2019

Oltin Yol GTL Uzbekistan GTL 37 Sasol 477 2020

NWU/CNR Bitumen RefineryCanada Bitumen 50North West

Upgrading Inc.430 2018

Red Rock Biofuels BTL USA BTL 0.8 Red Rock Biofuels 168 2020


Syngas Projects Scoring by End ProductGaseous Fuels


Category

Product

Capacity

(mmcfd)

Analyst

Factored

Score

Projection

Start Year

CNOOC/Datong

Shanxi SNGChina

CNOOC/ Datong Coal

Mine GroupCoal SNG / 388 420 2018

Yili Xintian Coal

Chemical Co., LtdChina

Yili Xintian Coal Chemical

Co., LtdCoal SNG / 193 460 2018

Yingde Gases Group

Co., Ltd ProjectChina

Yingde Gases Group Co.,

Ltd Coal H2 / 50 415 2018

Jamnagar Petcoke

GasificationIndia Reliance Industries (RIL) Petcoke Syngas / 812 450 2018

Beijing Holding

Zhungeer PlantChina Beijing Holding Group Coal SNG / 388 393 2019

Guodian Yili SNG

PlantChina

China Guodian

CorporationCoal SNG / 388 420 2018


Syngas Projects Scoring by End ProductOlefins


Category

Olefins

Capacity,

mmtpa

Analyst

Factored

Score

Projection

Start Year

Huating Zhongxu Coal Chemical

MTO Plant China

Huating Zhongxu Coal

ChemicalCoal 0.20 268 2018

Total/CPI Inner Mongolia MTO China Total Coal 1.00 285 2022

Jiutai Energy MTO ChinaJiutai Energy Inner

Mongolia Co., LtdCoal 0.60 472 2019

Lu'an Group CTL China Lu'an Group Coal 0.30 405 2018

Zhong'an United Coal and Chemical

Co. LtdChina

Zhong'an United Coal

and Chemical Co. LtdCoal 0.60 383 2019

Shanxi Coking Coal Group Feihong

Chemical Co LtdChina

Shanxi Coking Coal

Group Feihong

Chemical Co Ltd

Coal 0.60 258 2019

Sinopec Guizhou CTO China Sinopec Coal 0.60 333 2021

Shenhua Group Baoutou CTO ChinaShenhua Group Co.

Ltd.Coal 1.80 370 2021


Syngas Projects Scoring by End ProductPower


Category

Power

capacity MW

Analyst

Factored

Score

Projection

Start Year

Stockton-On-Tees WTE United Kingdom Port Clarence Biomass Biomass 49 311 2018

Welland WTE United Kingdom Balfour Beatty Biomass 9 365 2018

Birmingham Bio-Power United KingdomBirmingham Bio Power

Ltd.Biomass 10 383 2018

Jizan IGCC Power PlantSaudi Arabia Saudi Aramco Oil Residue 2400 498 2019

Beddington WTE United Kingdom Viridor Waste 26 263 2019

Belfast Bombardier

WTEUnited Kingdom Full Circle Generation Waste 15 364 2018

Glasgow WTE

(Glasgow Recycling and

Renewable Energy

Center)

United Kingdom Viridor Waste 22 390 2018

Gloucestershie

Residual Waste ProjectUnited Kingdom Urbaser Waste 116 248 2018

Herten WTE Germany Lockheed Martin

CorporationWaste 5 356 2018


Category

Power capacity

MW

Analyst

Factored

Score

Projection

Start Year

Stockton-On-Tees WTE United Kingdom Port Clarence Biomass Biomass 49 311 2018

Welland WTE United Kingdom Balfour Beatty Biomass 9 365 2018

Birmingham Bio-Power United Kingdom Birmingham Bio Power Ltd. Biomass 10 383 2018

Jizan IGCC Power Plant Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco Oil Residue 2400 498 2019

Beddington WTE United Kingdom Viridor Waste 26 263 2019

Belfast Bombardier WTE United Kingdom Full Circle Generation Waste 15 364 2018

Glasgow WTE (Glasgow

Recycling and Renewable

Energy Center)

United Kingdom Viridor Waste 22 390 2018

Gloucestershie Residual

Waste ProjectUnited Kingdom Urbaser Waste 116 248 2018

Herten WTE Germany Lockheed Martin

CorporationWaste 5 356 2018

Conclusions


Conclusions

• Global syngas capacity has been growing at a CAGR of 17% from 2010

to 2017.

• Syngas capacity growth slowed down recently and expected to last this

slow down till 2024.

• Growth is expected pick up pace after 2024 as oil price is projected to

keep rising.

• A shift towards natural gas as preferred feed stock is projected.

• Number of announced projects will increase after 2020.

• Good days for syngas sector is ahead.

Contact Information

Q & AHabib Khan, Sr Analyst, Downstream, [email protected] W: +1.713.260.4641 C: +1.832.282.4048

Anjani Singh, Director, Downstream, [email protected] W: +1.713.260.6412 C: +1.832.366.4076

Houston Office - Phone: +1.713.260.6426

Brussels Office - Phone: +32.2.287.08.23

Singapore Office - Phone: +65.6353.6126

global syngas overview - 2018 · upstream | midstream | downstream | fuel & transport global...

Documents