global outlook for engineered lumber products … fea global outlook on lvl, psl, lsl, i-joists,...

Global Outlook for Engineered Lumber Products

2015 - 2020

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FEA GLOBAL OUTLOOK ON LVL, PSL, LSL, I-JOISTS, GLULAM & CLT, 2015 - 20202

Why Subscribe? Offshore Production & Markets Will Affect Your Business

Some may think that offshore manufacturing and markets do not have relevance to their operations but we believe that manufacturers and distributors of engineered lumber products throughout the world are today operating in a global context even if they don’t have a presence overseas.

Imbalances Exist in Supply & Demand

China is the wood-working shop of the world but has little in the way of its own timber resources. Russia has the world’s largest timber basket but much of it is not accessible. North America has 80% of the world market for engineered lumber but it lacks the high-grade veneer necessary to keep pace with its recovering markets. Europe has ample wood resources and excess capacity but its weak domestic markets will turn Euro manufacturers into exporters.

The Global Outlook Study Will Enable you to :

• Identify and assess new market opportunities

• Analyze and understand competitive threats

• Developand/orrefineexportmarketstrategies

• Mitigatecyclicalitythroughmarketdiversification

• Acquire data on capacities by manufacturer and plant

• Acquire accurate supply, demand, cost & price histories and forecasts by product and region

• Identify potential customers and partners in offshore markets

• Getuptospeedonnewengineeredlumberproductsandmanufacturingtechnologies

The Most Comprehensive Report of Its Kind

The best way to navigate these unchartered waters and remain competitive is through information. That is what this report will deliver. It will contain detailed data on engineered lumber products from around the world, along with realistic forecasts. It will contain a wealth of never-beforepublished information – including the first ever impartial CLT forecast – and insightful analysis of manufacturing, distribution, markets and competition. Our mission? To help you make better, more informed business decisions.I-joists

LVL

Glulam

PSL

LSL

CLT

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Highlights GeographicCoverage

• North America

• Europe (including Russia)

• Australasia

• Japan

• China

• South Asia

• South America

ProductCoverage

• Laminated Veneer Lumber (LVL) Structural & Non-Structural

• Parallel Strand Lumber (PSL)

• Laminated Strand Lumber (LSL)

• Glued Laminated Timber (glulam)

• I-joists

• Cross Laminated Timber (CLT)

• New Product Technologies (Scrimtec, I-Joist Jappy, ESL, CLST)

AnalyticalCoverage

For Each Product & Region:

• Macroeconomic Forecasts

• 5-Yr Histories of Supply, Demand, Costs, Prices

• 5-Yr Forecast of Supply, Demand, Costs, Prices

• Distribution Channels

• Imports & Exports

• Manufacturing Capacities by Manufacturer & Plant

Europe’s Installed LVL Capacity will Grow by 80% within 2 Years

• In just two years, Europe’s installed capacity will grow to a level that is 3 times greater than current domestic consumption.

• What will the major players do with all that excess capacity?

• Why do they keep investing?

The Eastern US is Fertile Ground for European LVL Exporters

• Will North America run short of domestic LVL capacity?

• To what extent will US eastern markets rely on Western US LVL supply?

• What is the delivered cost of European LVL vs. the delivered cost of US LVL to representative Eastern markets?

WhyAren’tNorthAmericanLVLManufacturersExpandingCapacity?

• Is the primary concern market demand or raw material supply?

• Will we see more greenfield LVL plants in North America?

• How will North American EWP companies meet forecast demand?

Will South American Plywood Manufacturers Invest in LVL Capacity?

• Brazil and Chile have some of the largest plywood plants in the world.

• Will they invest in LVL in order to add more value to high-grade veneer?

• Can they be competitive in the North American market?

North America’s CLT Consumption is only 3% of Europe’s

• Why is North America so far behind?

• Will CLT gain traction in the US? In Canada?

• The realizable market potential is vast but how much of that will be realized?

Japan to Expand CLT Capacity Tenfold over 10 Years

• The government announced its plan to increase production capacity to 500,000 M³

• How will the government make this happen?

• Will government policy also play a role in North America, Europe or Australasia?

AreanyoftheNewELPProducts/TechnologiesGameChangers?

• Is Scrimtec a potential competitive threat to LVL? What is its current status?

• Could 2nd gen PSL be a solution to North America’s looming high-grade veneer scarcity?

• How is CLT evolving to become more cost competitive with steel and concrete?


Data & Analysis A Unique Data Base and In-depth Analysis

FEA has created a uniquely extensive and accurate global data base of manufacturing capacity, production, costs and prices for LVL, PSL, LSL, Glulam, I-joists and CLT. In addition, FEA will provide macro-economic forecast summaries, as well as 5 year supply, demand, cost and price forecasts, by geographic/market region.

The Authors of This Study Know the Business

Collectively, the authors of this report have over 100 years of experience, including 40 years of hands-on ELP industry experience, managing operations in North America, Europe and Asia. We know the business. Our experience, combined with FEA’s superior analytics and extensive data base, will combine to make this study the most comprehensive of its kind ever written.

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1. Executive Summary

2.Background

3. Product Descriptions

• Laminated veneer lumber (LVL)

• Parallel strand lumber (PSL)

• Laminated strand lumber (LSL)

• I-joists / I-beams

• Glued laminated timber (Glulam)

• Cross laminated timber (CLT)

4. Introduction • Industry Update

• Report Objectives

• Methodology

• Organization of Report

5. North America (US & Canada)

• Macroeconomic Forecast

• Building Industry/Timber Frame Outlook

• End Use Markets & Applications

• Laminated Veneer Lumber (LVL) • Industry / Market Structure

• Performance Specifications

• Market Segments (B&H, Flange Stock, Scaffold Plank, Form Beams)

• Wood Supply (NW, South)


• Substitution Trends

• Manufacturers

• Production Facilities

• Demand – Historic & Forecast

• Exports & Imports – Forecast

• Capacity – Historic & Forecast

• Variable Costs – Historic & Forecast

• Prices – Historic & Forecast

• Profitability – Historic & Forecast

• New Product Developments

• I-joists • Industry / Market Structure• Flange Stock (LVL vs MSR) • Distribution Channels • Substitution Trends • Manufacturers and Production Facilities • Demand – Historic & Forecast • Exports & Imports – Historic & • Capacity – Historic & Forecast • Variable Costs – Historic & Forecast • Prices – Historic & Forecast • Profitability – Historic & Forecast • New Product Developments

• Glulam • Industry / Market Structure• Performance Specifications • Distribution Channels • Substitution Trends • Manufacturers and Production Facilities • Demand – Historic & Forecast • Exports/Imports – Historic & Forecast • Capacity – Historic & Forecast • Variable Costs – Historic & Forecast • Prices – Historic & Forecast • Profitability – Historic & Forecast • New Product Developments

• Cross Laminated Timber (CLT) • Manufacturers and Production Facilities • Market Segments • Market Opportunity by Building Type • Wood Supply Issues • Challenges in the N.A. Market • Competitive Position• Demand – Historic & Forecast • Imports – Historic & Forecast • Capacity – Historic & Forecast • Variable Manufacturing Costs• Prices – Historic & Forecast • New Product Developments

Table of Contents


• Laminated Strand Lumber (LSL)• Industry / Market Structure




• Manufacturers and Production Facilities


• Exports – Historic & Forecast






• Parallel Strand Lumber (Parallam® PSL)• Industry / Market Structure












• NewSCLTechnology(Scrimtec®SPSL)• Product Description

• Manufacturing Process


• Potential Sustainable CompetitiveAdvantage

• Realizable Market Potential

• Commercialization Status

6. Europe(IncludingRussia)


• Building Industry Timber Frame Outlook


• Laminated Veneer Lumber (LVL)• Industry / Market Structure


• Market Segments (B&H, Flange Stock,Scaffold Plank, Form Beams

• Wood Supply



• Manufacturers



• Exports & Imports – Forecast






• Glulam• Industry / Market Structure

• Performance Specifications, Capabilities



• Principal Manufacturers and Production

• Capacities

• Demand Drivers


• Exports & Imports – Historic & Forecast






• Cross Laminated Timber (CLT)• Manufacturers

• Production Capacities

• Demand Drivers

• Competitive Position vs. Concrete & steel

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• Variable Costs Historic & Forecast



• I-joists• Industry / Market Structure

• Flange Stock (LVL vs MSR)





• Exports & Imports – Historic &






7. Australasia (New Zealand & Australia)


• Building Industry/Timber Frame Outlook


• Laminated Veneer Lumber (LVL)• Industry / Market Structure


• Market Segments

• Wood Supply


• Manufacturers

• Production Capacities




• Variable Costs Historic & Forecast



• I-joists• Industry / Market Structure




• Demand Drivers




• Variable manufacturing) – Historic &Forecast




• Glulam• Industry / Market Structure



• Principal Manufacturers and Production








• Cross Laminated Timber (CLT)• Principal Manufacturers

• Competitive Position vs Concrete & Steel


• Imports – Historic & Forecast






8. Japan


• End Use Markets

• Industry / Market Structure

• Laminated Veneer Lumber

• Glulam




• Demand Drivers



• Variable Cost Estimates

• Prices

9. China


• End Use Markets


• Laminated Veneer Lumber

• Glulam




• Demand Drivers



• Variable Cost Estimates

• Prices

10. South Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia & India)

• End Use Markets


• Performance Capabilities


11. South America (Brazil & Chile)

• End Use Markets


• Performance Capabilities


Wood City, Helsinki Finland, SRV & Stora Enso

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Scope

The report will cover all commercially available engineered lumber products in North America, Europe (including Russia), Australasia, China, Japan and emerging Southeast Asian economies. The products will include laminated veneer lumber (LVL), parallel strand lumber (PSL), laminated strand lumber (LSL), glued laminated timber (glulam), I-joists, cross laminated timber (CLT) and promising new technologies. For each geographic area, FEA will provide macroeconomic and end use forecasts, followed by comprehensive analysis and forcasts on each invidual product - identification of the major players, plant capacities and locations, product demand, supply, variable costs and prices.

ProgramTiming

The report will launch in Q4 2015 and be completed in the second quarter of 2016. We are prepared to discuss the findings to meet your individual information needs.

All subscribers are offered a private on-line presentation by the FEA project team with an open discussion about the report, and to address any company-specific issues. The consultation is included in the subscription price.

Subscription price: USD$18,500

To Subscribe

Call or email for subscription details about the Outlook for Engineered Lumber Products 2015 - 2020 program.

Direct: US +1-978-944-2610 E-mail: [email protected] Fax: US +1-978-486-0222

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Client agrees to subscribe to this multi-client study, “Global Outlook for Engineered Lumber, 2015 - 2020”. Client agrees to maintain the report as company confidential from the signature date herein. Client will not reproduce in part or in whole the report by any means, will refrain from oral or written publication of any information presented in the report, and will take every precaution to prevent the disclosure of information in the report to any third party without FEA's written consent. Forest Economic Advisors, LLC, will not provide the information contained in this report, in whole or in part, to any party that is not a subscriber to the report except for limited use for marketing purposes.

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Global Outlook for Engineered Lumber Products

298 Great Road, Littleton, MA 01460 www.getfea.com

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Who We AreOver the past six years, FEA has grown to be the world’s leading provider of third party forecasts and analysis for the solid wood products sector. Our team of eight economists - with over 200 years of combined experience - are the most experienced and respected analysts in the industry. This differentiates us from the competition.

What We DoWe provide information and analysis to help you make better business decisions. Our 150 client firms include most of the largest forest products companies in the world, as well as major banks, investment banks, government departments and ministries and industry associations. Our products include monthly and quarterly macroeconometric forecasts, as well as forecasts and analysis for lumber, engineered lumber, structural and non-structural panels, timber and biofuels. But we don’t just provide reports. We are always available to our clients - by phone and email - 7 days a week.

Contact usIf you would like to find out what we can do for your firm, please contact us at: 1-978-496-6336 or Email: [email protected]

Partner,EngineeredWoodProductsIndustry experience: 38 years MD, Trus Joist MacMillan Europe Manager Mktg, Parallam Division, MacMillan Bloedel Education: Princeton University. BA; Simon Fraser MBA 604 644 6874; [email protected] Schmon

Co-Founder&Principal,MacroeconomicsandHousingIndustry experience: 20 years VP RISI, Pulp and Paper Economic Analysis, Macroeconomics & Mill Intelligence Education: Union College: BA; Boston College: MA 978 496 6334; [email protected] Lowney

Co-Founder & Principal, LumberIndustry experience: 20 years RISI, Housing, Benchmarking and News Education: UConn BA; Boston University MA 978 496 6336; [email protected] KellyPaul Jannke

Study Team

Vice President Wood PanelsIndustry experience: 15 yearsVP RISI Wood ProductsStructural and Non-Structural Wood Panel ForecastsEducation: Oberlin College BA; University of Washington MA978 496 6335; [email protected] Lewis

Vice President, TimberIndustry experience: 12 yearsDirector RISI North American Timber ServiceAuthored numerous studies on Timber-related topicsEducation: Virginia Tech BS; Virginia Tech MS978 496 6337; [email protected] Goodnow

Co-Founder & Principal, MacroeconomicsandHousingIndustry experience: 20 yearsVP RISI, Pulp and Paper Economic Analysis, Macroeconomics & Mill IntelligenceEducation: Union College: BA; Boston College: MA978 496 6334; [email protected] Lowney

Co-Founder & Principal, LumberIndustry experience: 20 yearsSVP RISI, Wood Products and Timber Economic Analysis, Benchmarking and NewsEducation: UConn BA; Boston University MA978 496 6336; [email protected] Jannke

Partner,EngineeredWoodProductsIndustry experience: 38 yearsMD, Trus Joist MacMillan EuropeManager Mktg, Parallam Division, MacMillan BloedelEducation: Princeton U. BA; Simon Fraser MBA604 644 6874; [email protected] Schmon

Partner, Biomass & LumberProfessional experience: 40 yearsEconomist, Forest Products LaboratoryManager, FORSIM Service, Data Resources, IncEducation: U of Illinois BS; U of California MS608 579 1207; [email protected] Spelter

Partner,Housing&WoodProductsIndustry experience: 39 yearsChief Economist Weyerhaeuser VP, Marketing & Economic Research, WeyerhaeuserEducation: U of Utah BA; Washington State U PhD in Economics206 434 8102; [email protected] Michaelis

Senior EconomistProfessional experience: 7 yearsSenior Economist, RISIEducation: B.S. Mathematics, Xavier; MS U of Rhode Island401 580 6921; [email protected] KellyCrystal Gauvin

Analysis You Trust Insights You Can Use

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global outlook for engineered lumber products … fea global outlook on lvl, psl, lsl, i-joists,...

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