global mobility and megacities
TRANSCRIPT
Frost & Sullivan Workshop:
Global Mobility and Megacities
Presentation at the 2011 EDTA Conference and Annual Meeting
April 19, 2011
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Agenda for the day – EDTA Conference, April 19, 2011
• Presentation: Impact of Urbanization and Rise of Megacities on Vehicle and
Technology Planning 40 min
• Video BMW short films: 15 min
• Workshop Tools : Introduction 10 min
• Working session and brainstorm: Teams (5-6) to evaluate and analyze new
opportunities and business models 20 min
• Team Presentations 30 min
• Summary 05 min
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Table of Contents
New Urban Mobility Business Models
New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology
Discussions
Overview of Mega and Smart Cities
Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry
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Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry
Urbanization Infrastructure Geo-socialization
New Business Models Power to the Middle Class
and Gen Y
E-Mobility
Digital World (high speed
broadband, Wireless, etc) Health, Wellness and Well-being High Speed Rail
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Table of Contents
New Urban Mobility Business Models
New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology
Discussions
Urbanization & Overview of Mega and Smart Cities
Mega-trends to Impact the Automotive Industry
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Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
MEGA CITY
City With A Minimum Population Of 10 Million
EXAMPLE: Greater London
MEGA REGIONS
Cities Combining With Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population over
10 Million)
EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming
“Jo-Toria”)
MEGA CORRIDORS
The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega Regions
EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in China (Population
120 Million)
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1950s Urbanisation
2000s Suburbanisation
2015s Network City
2020s : Branded Cities
• Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost-sensitive activities: city centres
becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for
“double income, no kids” households.
cars needed to go to the working areas/malls outside first and second belt.
• Industry offices moved out to the first belt area as also medium income families while
manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocated in the second and third
belt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery.
• „Green wave‟ families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and malls
mostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries).
cars needed to go from outer suburban areas to join the intermodal public transport and
working areas in third and second belt.
Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road
Creation of the historic centre and districts
Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl
Living areas
expanding well
outside of the
peninsular loop in
San Francisco
Cities Globally Will Become Networked, Integrated and Branded -Polarization of Vehicle Sizes Is Creating Demand for EVs in Mega Cities
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Smart Cities – “Green” Replaced by “SMART” Concepts
„S”
Governance
„S‟ City
Planning
„S‟
Energy
„S‟ Business
„S‟ ICT
„S‟ Mobility
„S‟ Citizen
„S‟ Buildings
These 3 elements Will define the „Smart‟
Mobility of the future
Smart Diamond to define Smart city
City‟s InfrastructureLegend: City‟s User community City‟s Green Ecology
„S‟ Energy Renewable energy, Smart Grid Infrastructure
„S„ City Planning EV Charging, Smart Grid, Bus Rapid Transit, Parking Infrastructure, Congestion
Charging
„S‟ Information Communication & Technology Telematics, Navigation, Smart Metering, Internet
Technologies
Smart Cities Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility
Sourc
e: F
rost &
Sulli
van
*****
P+R
SMART CITY CASE STUDY: Amsterdam - Ordering over 200 Leafs
from Nissan with key objective to reduce Particulate Matter in City
SMART MOBILITY SMART LIVING SMART WORKING PLACE
SMART PUBLIC SPACE
• 39% commute by bicycle
• 400+ Km of dedicated cycle
route
• To familiarize electric bicycle
taxis
• 200 charging stations by 2012;
• 10,000 EVs By 2015
• Encourage car sharing
• Cheaper parking slots at
public transit stations to
park cars and board trains
• Utrechtsestraat – the popular narrow
shopping street downtown is to feature
energy efficient street lighting,
• Sustainable tram stops with solar
powered displays and billboards
• Solar powered garbage bins with built
in compacters will be installed on this
street
• 1200 homes to feature smart meters
and energy management systems.
• 14% reduction in energy use is
expected of this smart meter project
• ITO tower is testing the use of smart
meters and energy efficient appliances to
cut energy consumption.
• Design aesthetics of building absorb
natural light and air from the environment
thereby keep artificial lighting and HVAC
use to minimum.
SMART COMMUTE to WORK
• 25 MNCs have jointly signed to reduce
home to work car miles by 10% by 2012.
• Incentive/free bicycles to employees
• Free & protected bike parks at offices to
encourage cycle use.
• Work from home if necessary
x • Yearly reduction of parking
spaces and increase of tariffs
inside the city.
• 30 kmph speed limits on 80%
of roads inside the city -
makes bicycles faster by at
least 50% on a A-B trip.
• 154 shore power connections
to charge inland cargo vessels
and river cruisers to be
installed by 2012
“Smart” Market Opportunity: Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition
IT Players
Automation/Building Control Players
Energy/InfrastructurePlayers
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
• IP Networks• Digital Technology• Analysis Software• Wireless Communication• Technology Integration• Network Security• Etc.
• T&D Technology• Power Electronics• Renewable Energy• Integrated Distribution Management• Substation Automation• AMI-Enabled Metering• Etc.
• Building Automation• Demand-Side Management• Connectivity of devices• Monitoring and Sensing• Smart Grid Integration• Etc.
Gen Y and the Rise of Middle Class
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0.1 0.1 0.1
0.4 0.30.20.1
0.2 0.3
0.4 0.4
0.5
0.6
0.1
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0.5 0.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
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0.5
0.4
0
0.2
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0.6
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1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
North America Latin America,
Caribbean and
Oceania
Europe Africa India China Rest of Asia
1.8
2.2
2.3
0.5
1.7
2.6
2.1
1.2
2010 2020
6.83 Billion
7.55 Billion
World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020
Po
pu
lati
on
(b
illi
on
)
1.7
2.6
2.1
1.2
0-14 Years 15-34 Years 35-64 Years 65 Years and Above
Note: Gen Y : Population between 15 – 34 Years Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Around 37% of this Age Group Will Live in India and China Alone
World Population in 2020 : 2.56 Billion Population in Age Group 15 to 34 – Important Customer of the Future for City Cars
Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle
Personalisation and Individualisation
Techno Savvy and Connected 24 X 7
Civic and Environmentally
Friendly
Demanding and Impatient – “Fast and the Furious”
Personalised Search and News
Social Networking Profiles
Personalised Products
Gaming Gizmos
Smart Phones
Facebook-on-the Move
Microblogs
Eco- Transport
Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic)
Paperless Banking
Instant Text Messaging
Instant Chat
Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing)
Rise of the Middle Class in 2020: Over 1 Billion from India and China Alone
700 Million
15 Million
The middle class in China is defined as households with an annual income between
$8,000 and $70,000
The middle class in India is defined as households with an annual income between
$5,000 and $220,000
The middle class in Brazil is defined as households with an annual income between
$586 and $2,530
120 Million
140 Million
The middle class in Russia is defined as households with an annual income
between $6000 and $30,000
400 Million
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Top 20 Megacities – Regional Transportation PoliciesCongestion , low emission zones and road user charging initiatives in the emerging
economies will have a major impact on car mobility
Delhi Mumbai Beijing Shanghai Moscow Seoul New York London Tokyo
Bus Rapid
Transit Lanes2011 2011
Metro/Subway 2011
Congestion
ChargingPlanned Planned 2012 2012 Future Planned Future
Parking Cuts
Road use
Charging/BanYes
1 Week
Day Ban
1 week
Day Ban
1 Week
Day Ban*Future
EV/Hybrid
Incentives
Bicycle Lanes
Emission
StandardEuro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4
Euro 3
Euro 4 by
2012
Euro 4
CAFÉ
27.5mpg.
34.1 mpg
by 2016
Euro 4
Euro 5 by
2011
25%
reduction
by 2015
Not planned Existing currently * Voluntary no road usage incentiveSource: Frost & Sullivan
18M5A9-18
Top 20 Megacities – Car Ownership Trend
Population (Million)
Per capita 2025 (USD)
Cars per 1000 -2009
Cars per 1000 –2025
Tokyo 38.5 46,494 353 340
New York 25.9 67,591 230 220
London 14.4 57,746 400 340
Mexico City 21.0 33,795 209 270
Shanghai 21.0 32,952 32 122
São Paulo 21.5 28,001 150 335
Buenos Aires 13.8 43,581 190 350
Mumbai 26.4 21,224 24 72
Beijing 20.0 25,000 35 155
Delhi 22.5 21,335 117 250
Moscow 14.5 42,759 307 475
Guangzhou 11.8 36,332 43 173
Seoul 9.7 43,860 239 320
Evolution of Megacities: Top 20 Megacities – Car Ownership Growth (Global), 2009 - 2025
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Overview of Mega and Smart Cities
Agenda
New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology
Discussions
Key Trends in Urbanization
New Urban Mobility Business Models
20M5A9-18
High Speed Rail to Come to USOverview of 13 high-speed rail corridors across 31 states.
Evolution of Megacities: High Speed Rain in U.S. (2009-2025)
California to connect Bay Area with LA through an ambitious $42bn program with construction starting in 2 years
Impact to Personal Mobility and Auto
Industry
1. Air travel will diminish rapidly between the high speed rail link cities
2. Train operators could start offering integrated transport e.g. Car sharing
3. Will take congestion off highways, people will drive less long distance
4. Attractive cities for car sharing
5. Small city car sales will grow in these cities
21M5A9-18
Car Sharing in North America4.4 million members Forecast by 2016. Around 88% of NA Car Sharing Members are in the United States across 26 Car Sharing Programs
Evolution of Megacities: Car Sharing in North America (US and Canada), 2009 - 2025
2016 Potential
More than $ 3.3 billion in revenues
More than 4.4 million members
More than 72,000 vehicles in car sharingSource: Frost & Sullivan
22M5A9-18
Mobility Integrators (MI) – New Players Entering the MarketMIs to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters’ inter-modality and multi-modality travel split
The Concept of a Dynamic Transport Solution Integrating Different Modes Under a Single Entity to make Personal Transportation Easy and Simple
MIs will start exploiting the Web 2.0 and Mobile 2.0 Internet service to offer mobility-basedapplications (apps) on smart phones.
Source: Frost & Sullivan*The company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose
Mobility Integrator
Transport Operators
Rail Bus
Car sharing
Bikes
Technology Solutions Provider
WEB 2.0
MOBILE 2.0
Technology Evolution
Telecom Operators
Online Mobility Booking
Agencies:
Long Distance Mobility
Short Distance Urban Mobility
Payment Engine
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Case Study - Mu by Peugeot (Mobility Integration by OEM) Integrated Mobility On-demand Solutions Under One Roof
Evolution of Megacities: Case Study – Mu by Peugeot (Global), 2009
by
Peugeot
WeekendServices
TravelServices
DrivingBehaviorand Rewards
PersonalTransportSolutions
VehicleAccessories
Service Units
Hiring Units
Create an account to usethis scheme
Pay subscription chargesto get charging units
Working Concept
Hire services or productsbased on balance incharging units
Earn mobility (reward)points that can be used forselect services
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Partnering with travel agencies,
driving schools amongst others.
Booking services on train,
airplane travel and hotels.
Discounts, prizes and member
advantages.
Decrease spending by using the same infrastructure and staff
Generate income from the stock of vehicles sitting at dealerships
Micro-mobility solutions such
as bicycles and scooters.
Rental cars and vans.
Vehicle accessories such as
roof-boxes, cycle racks and
child seats.
Brest
Rennes
Nantes
Lyon
Paris
Expected to be expanded in key EU cities in 2010-2011
Bristol
London
Current Points of Sale
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New Urban Mobility Business Models
Overview of Mega and Smart Cities
Agenda
Discussions
Key Trends in Urbanization
New Product Development Opportunities and Impact of Urbanization on Technology
26M5A9-18
In Future, There Will be Shift from Cities Designed around Cars to Cars Designed around [Mega] Cities : OEMS to Develop New Vehicles and Platforms
• Megacity Vehicle – be launched in 2013.
• Electro-mobility – Zero emission vehicles (lithium ion battery with about 35 kWh capacity )
• Electric driveline - Electric motor for quicker acceleration and zip drive.
• Lighter drive –Carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) passenger cell and aluminum chassis.
• Tata Nano to be launched as City Car in EU and NA (low cost car in India)
• Compact Vehicle length and width: 3099mm x 1,495mm
• Low emissions; sub 1 liter engine (624cc). Electric vehicle in future.
• Turning radius: 4m.
• Low vehicle weight: 600 kg (1,300lb)
• ‘City Cars’ – In sync with the city Multiple Variants – Pixo, Note and Cube
• Compact Vehicle length and width: less than 4,000mm x 1,675mm
• Low emissions: 1-litre engine, Electric vehicles in future
• Tight turning circle of 4.5m and power assisted steering for easy maneuvering in city
traffic
• Parking system, Start Stop system, Nissan Connect, foldable rear seats, customizable setting
Evolution of Megacities: City Cars (Global), 2009 - 2025
Logos are only for descriptive purpose. Source: Frost & Sullivan
28M5A9-18
Characteristics of The Sub-A Segment
Technical Specification Sub-A Segment A-Segment
Reference Model
Gordon Murray
T.27
TATA Motors
Nano EV
Mitsubishi
i-MiEV
Length (mm) 2,500 3,090 3,475
Width (mm) 1,300 1,487 1,475
Height (mm) 1,600 1,585 1,610
Power Capacity (kW) 15-40 47
Seating Capacity (nos.) 1-4 4
Maximum Speed (kmph) 75-140 (Average Top Speed = 110) ~130
Maximum Driving Range (km) 100-160 (Average Driving Range = 130) ~160
Microcar Market: Characteristics of Sub-A Segment (Europe), 2010
Source: Frost & Sullivan
29M5A9-18
Impact on Vehicle Technology PlanningOpportunity for OEMs to Develop Technologies for Customers’ Unmet Needs
Evolution of Megacities: Impact on Vehicle Technology Planning (Global), 1950 - 2025
Ergonomically designed comfortable seats for long commuting hours
Turning radius <4.3m to drive in congested streets
Start Stop System for frequent stop in traffic
Facebook on wheels, Internet in cars
3G/Wi-Fi Connectivity - V2V and V2X communication
Limited boot space and more head and
leg room
CO2 less than 80 gm/km vehicles
Lightweight construction
Panoramic roofs
Navigation systems with route guidance and traffic
information
Customised and personalised comfort
functions
Smart vehicle access
Low speed collision avoidance for enhanced safety and pedestrian
protection
Simple and easy to use HMI
Vehicle length of less than 3500mm
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Autonomous parking assist
Voice recognition technology
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E-MobilityOver 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020 and over 60% of these will be sold in Large Cities
Evolution of Megacities: E-Mobility (Global), 2009 - 2025
XM 3000 Electric MopedSanyo Enable The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton
Total 30 million –
2 Wheelers (2020)
Total 10 Million –
4 Wheelers (2020)
Source: Frost & Sullivan
31M5A9-18
Connected MobilitySmart Connectivity Between Home and Office and from Personal Device to Car with Cloud Character will Become Increasingly Important in Car of the Future
Internet Radio
EV Infrastructure
Infotainment and Mobile Phone
Cloud Computing
Smarter Home
Source: Frost & Sullivan
32M5A9-18
Future IT Mobility Solutions for “Integrated” and “Interoperable”
Transport Infrastructure:
Car Sharing: technology to
locate, reserve and unlock
nearest car on mobile,
provide info via apps/GPS
Source: ETSI
Congestion
Charging: technology
migration from ANPR –
Tag& Beacon – GPS,
and advanced payment
and info on mobile
Connectivity: opportunity for built,
bought & beamed in, providing a
hybrid open architecture service and
network comms
Commercial Vehicle
Telematics: Vehicle/driver
management, and on board
tracking, computer, navigation
V2V: ANPR, DSRC,
vehicle positioning
EVs IT:
grid/energy
management,
billing systems,
comms & cloud
RTI: Ticketing,
scheduling, CCTV
and incident
management,
UTMC integration
Smart
Ticketing/AFC:
Innovative payment,
integration with RTI
LMS: Signalling,
infotainment,
diagnostics, energy
management &GPS
Source: ETSI
33M5A9-18
Mega-City App StoreFrom Car Sharing to Diagnostics to EV’s, Apps for Cars are becoming a Value Added Development
Mobility EntertainmentVehicle Access/
SecurityTelematics Electric Vehicles Navigation
Car Sharing –Choosing,
Reservation and locating
cars,
Car/Van Pooling – car
and van pooling apps,
Multimodal Transport –apps for real
time bus/transit
Car Sharing Vehicle Access
Internet Radioe.g. Pandora,
RadioTime
IP TV – live tv using internet,
eg. .SPB TV,
Social Networking –e.g. Twitter, Facebook,
News – Online radio news, RSS feeds
reader
Vehicle Locator
Vehicle Access –converting phone in to smart key
Remote Car Starter/Security
Remote Vehicle Horn/Light
Flash – Security App,
Emergency Assistance –
App
Real Time Video Traffic
Feeds
Diagnostics –TPMS,
service/oil notifications,
Integrated Telematics –
eCall/bCall/Tolling
State of Charge Monitoring App
Charging Station Locator
Interior Pre-Condition App
EV Billing
Turn by Turn Navigation
Dynamic POI Finder
Real time Traffic
Information
3D Navigation with Video
Support
Evolution of Megacities: App store from Megacity Vehicles (Global), 1950 - 2025
Sourc
e:
Fro
st
& S
ulliv
an
34M5A9-18
Future of Urban Mobility – Conclusions and Recommendations
Mega City vehicle s will have new
“Urban” technologies
OEMs to develop new Mega City
vehicles
Impact on
Personal Mobility
New integrated urban mobility
models will emerge including
car sharing
Over 30 Mega-cities, 110
Smart/Sustainable Cities and Mega
Corridors
More than 60% of the population will live in cities
by 2025 Multimodal Mobility
E - Mobility
Small and Micro Mobility
Shared Mobility (Car Sharing/Pooling)
Last Mile Connectivity
New Technology in Cars (e.g. Internet Radio)
V2V & V2I Communication & Wireless Connectivity
page 35Urban Mobility Tracker, Q1 report
Thank you!
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Agenda for the day – EDTA Conference, April 19, 2011
• Presentation: Impact of Urbanization and Rise of Megacities on Vehicle and
Technology Planning 40 min
• Video BMW short films: 15 min
• Workshop Tools : Introduction 10 min
• Working session and brainstorm: Teams (5-6) to evaluate and analyze new
opportunities and business models 20 min
• Team Presentations 30 min
• Summary 05 min
37
Objectives of the Workshop
• Aim : Evaluate new business models and “out of box” business
opportunities for your industry in relation to MC & Future Mobility
• Methodology :
• Brainstorm within your group for 20 minutes using the Optopus
• Capture the results in a flip chart
• Short-list 2 or 3 opportunities and use the Option Evaluation Grid
to conduct the scoring
• Nominate a leader to present your group findings
• Please present using “weather forecast” presentation tips (5
minutes, top level and most relevant points)
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Market
Sectors
Customer
Segments
Geography
Divestment
or
Outsource
Value
Creation
Acquisition
Value
Delivery
Alliance
OPTIONS
The “OPTOPUS” (or Option Octopus) – Brainstorming
Tool for Generation Strategic Market Opportunities
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• The 8 „arms‟ of the Optopus:
Geography – Options for growth via expansion into new geographical regions
Market Sectors – Options for growth via expansion into new market sectors
Divestment/Outsource – Change of business direction (e.g. outsourcing production)
Acquisition – Options for growth via merger or acquisition activities
Alliance – Options for growth via implementation of strategic alliances/partnerships
Value Delivery – Growth via the development of new channels to market
Value Creation – Growth via the provision of additional services etc. (up-sell/cross-sell)
Customer Segments – Options for growth via targeting new customers or applications
The Option Octopus (Optopus) is a tool to provide a more structured approach to the brainstorming of
strategic options. The Optopus assumes that there are 8 main categories of growth option into which any
ideas can be mapped.
As such, the Optopus enables the mapping of options under the 8 key headings and is therefore a simple
framework around which growth options can be brainstormed and listed.
The “OPTOPUS” (or Option Octopus) –
Brainstorming Tool
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Strategic Option Grid - Tool for Evaluating Options
Strategic
Attractiveness
Financial
Attractiveness
Implementation
Difficulty
Uncertainty
and Risk
Acceptability to
Stakeholders
Options
Criteria
Option1 Option 2 Option 3
The Strategic Options Grid is a detailed tool that is ideal for analyzing and prioritizing mutually exclusive strategic options.
This tool assumes that the overall strategic attractiveness of an option can be evaluated by looking at 5 distinct variables: market attractiveness;
financial attractiveness; implementation difficulty; risk/uncertainty; and strategic fit/stakeholder attractiveness.
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BMW Films - Mobility
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Contacts
Robert Duronio
Consulting Director
Automotive & Transportation
P: 703.870.5801
Email: [email protected]
Brian Drake
Director, Business Development
Automotive & Transportation
P: 248.836.8260
Email: [email protected]