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Located in the United States Ow ned by United States MNEs ~ Almost 50% of global FDI stock affected by tax reforms ~ +

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Page 1: Global Investment Trends Monitor - UNCTAD | Homeunctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diaeia2018d2_en.pdfGlobal Investment Trends Monitor Author unctad Subject Global Investment Trends

Located in the United

States

Ow ned by United

States MNEs

~

Almost 50% of global FDI stock affected by

tax reforms

~

+

Page 2: Global Investment Trends Monitor - UNCTAD | Homeunctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diaeia2018d2_en.pdfGlobal Investment Trends Monitor Author unctad Subject Global Investment Trends

Investment

climate

International

tax structures

i. Corporate income tax

reduction

Key measures

ii. Investment expensing

iii. Cap on interest

deductability

iv. Territorial tax system

v. Mandatory deemed

repatriation

vi. Anti-avoidance

measures

▪ Increases attractiveness of the US as an

investment destination.

Potential impact on FDI

▪ Reduces investment costs, increasing

the attractriveness of the US

▪ Reduces debt financing options and

could decrease intra-firm loans. Could

have a negative impact on highly

leveraged cross-border M&A deals.

▪ Reduces the need for high levels of

retained earnings overseas. Could lead

to re-routing of US outward FDI stocks.

▪ Immediate impact on US outward FDI

stocks; negative outflows as MNEs

repatriate cash.

▪ Could lead to re-routing of US outward

FDI stocks. Differentiated impact by

sector/industry; e.g. stronger impact on

IP-intense sectors.

▪ Could provide a stimulus to US domestic

capex (stronger for domestic firms).

Potential impact on Capex

▪ Likely to boost US domestic capex,

including by MNEs.

▪ Could dampen capex effect where it leads

to higher cost of capital. Negatively affects

highly leveraged investments, in particular

PE investments.

▪ Limited impact, as the negative effect of

the high tax rate was already off-set by

tax-efficient corporate structures.

▪ By itself, limited real impact from the

repatriation of overseas cash – in

combination with lower CIT and expensing

it may boost capex by MNEs.

▪ Limited real impact. May affect

international corporate structures in IP-

intense sectors (e.g. negative impact on

overseas R&D) and financial sectors.

Low impact High impact

Page 3: Global Investment Trends Monitor - UNCTAD | Homeunctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diaeia2018d2_en.pdfGlobal Investment Trends Monitor Author unctad Subject Global Investment Trends

OECD average

Page 4: Global Investment Trends Monitor - UNCTAD | Homeunctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diaeia2018d2_en.pdfGlobal Investment Trends Monitor Author unctad Subject Global Investment Trends
Page 5: Global Investment Trends Monitor - UNCTAD | Homeunctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diaeia2018d2_en.pdfGlobal Investment Trends Monitor Author unctad Subject Global Investment Trends

$ bill ions

The 2005 Homeland Investment Act caused 2/3 of overseasretained earnings to be repatriated

Funds available for repatriation nowalmost 7 times larger

$ bill ions

Page 6: Global Investment Trends Monitor - UNCTAD | Homeunctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diaeia2018d2_en.pdfGlobal Investment Trends Monitor Author unctad Subject Global Investment Trends

75% of total United States outward FDI stock

Page 7: Global Investment Trends Monitor - UNCTAD | Homeunctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diaeia2018d2_en.pdfGlobal Investment Trends Monitor Author unctad Subject Global Investment Trends

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

+250%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

+50%

385

325

271

221

168

110

411 398 369 355

322 281

ICT MNEs

Other MNEs

Trend in unremitted foreign earnings

Billion US $Share of total

foreign earnings

Ratio to foreign

tangible assets

Effective tax

rate

2015

62%

22%

7.8

2.1

19%

27%

Page 8: Global Investment Trends Monitor - UNCTAD | Homeunctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diaeia2018d2_en.pdfGlobal Investment Trends Monitor Author unctad Subject Global Investment Trends