global energy outlook and the implications for africa

15
© OECD/IEA 2012 Global Energy Outlook and the implications for Africa Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist International Energy Agency 18 th Meeting of the Africa Partnership Forum Paris, 25 April 2012

Upload: international-energy-agency

Post on 29-Jan-2015

107 views

Category:

Technology


1 download

DESCRIPTION

Dr. Fatih BirolChief EconomistInternational Energy Agency18th Meeting of the Africa Partnership ForumParis, 25 April 2012

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2012

Global Energy Outlook and the implications for Africa

Dr. Fatih Birol

Chief Economist International Energy Agency

18th Meeting of the Africa Partnership Forum

Paris, 25 April 2012

Page 2: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends

Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy & limited the means of intervention

High oil prices – a major risk for the global economy

Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty

CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high

Durban was a step forward, but is yet to make a noticeable impact on investment

Page 3: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

High oil prices put a particular strain on the Least Developed Countries

The oil import burden of sub-Saharan Africa countries rose to $18 billion in 2011, swamping their ODA by around 40%; the situation may worsen in 2012 if prices stay at current levels

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

2009 2010 2011

$ b

illion Oil imports Bill

ODA

Page 4: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

Africa: 15% of the world's population consuming around 5% of its energy

Africa’s share of the global population increases from 15% in 2009 to 20% in 2035, but its share of global energy demand declines fractionally to 5.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2010 2035 2010 2035

Share of global population

Share of global energy demand

Africa OECD

Page 5: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

Natural gas & renewables become increasingly important

Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two-thirds of incremental energy demand in 2010-2035

Additional to 2035

2010

World primary energy demand

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear

Mto

e

Page 6: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

Existing and announced policies will not halt the rise in CO2 emissions

World energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario

If governments follow through on their policy commitments, the temperature rise will be 3.5 ⁰C; otherwise we are on an even more dangerous track, for an increase of 6°C or more

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035

Current Policies Scenario

New Policies Scenario

20

25

30

35

40

45

Gt

6⁰ C

3.5⁰ C

Page 7: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

Not all regions are major contributors to CO2 emissions

Africa constitutes 15% of the global population, but just 3% of global CO2-emissions

China

26%

US

18%

EU

12% India + other

dev Asia 9%

Russia

5%

Japan

4%

Latin

America 4%

Africa

3%

Rest of the

World 19%

2010 30.4 Gt CO2

Page 8: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

0

3

6

9

12

OECD China Latin America India Africa

Tonnes

Per capita CO2 emissions fail to converge

Africa’s low per capita emissions (just 10% of the OECD average) reflects its low per capita energy consumption, and heavy reliance on traditional biomass

2035

2010

Page 9: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

Energy poverty is widespread

31

8

85

653

836

423

661

Latin America

Sub-Saharan Africa China

India

Rest of developing

Asia

289 379

585

In Sub-Saharan Africa only 30% of the population has access to electricity,

in rural areas the share drops to 14%

Million people without electricity

Million people without clean cooking facilities

Page 10: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

Modern energy brings health benefits

Clean cooking facilities would prevent the majority of deaths attributable

to indoor air pollution from burning biomass

Premature annual deaths from household air pollution and selected diseases

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2008 2030

Malaria

2008 2030

Tuberculosis

2008 2030

Smoke from biomass

2008 2030

HIV/AIDS

Mill

ion

Page 11: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

Investment today is far from enough

To achieve Energy for All, investment needs to grow more than five-times to $48 billion a year – half of which in sub-Saharan Africa

$9.1 billion was invested in energy access in 2009

Bilateral Official Development Assistance

Multilateral organisations

Developing country governments

14%

34%

31%

22%

Private sector finance

Page 12: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

Annual investment needed to address energy poverty

Sub-Saharan Africa

Additional investment of $18.5 billion needed yearly up to 2030, to provide electricity to almost 600 million people currently without access

Electricity Access

Isolated off-grid and mini-grid On-grid

0

5

10

15

20

$18.5 billion

Page 13: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

Implications of modern energy for all

Achieving modern energy for all would not have significant negative effects on energy security or climate change

0

5

10

15

20

World energy demand

2030

Bill

ion

to

nn

es o

f o

il eq

uiv

alen

t

0

10

20

30

40

Gig

ato

nn

es

World CO2

emissions 2030

1.1% 0.7% Additional energy demand in the

Energy for All Case

Additional CO2 emissions in the Energy for All Case

Page 14: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

All fuels have a role to play

A range of technical solutions using different sources of energy is required

62%

38%

On-grid 226 TWh

Fossil fuels

Renewables

9%

91%

Mini-grid & off-grid

278 TWh

Generation mix for universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa

Page 15: Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

© OECD/IEA 2011

Concluding remarks

Development in the “rich” economies came on the back of oil prices that averaged just $13 per barrel

Efforts to catch-up by the Least Developed Countries are being hamstrung by prices some 10-times higher

Providing modern energy access for all is achievable & would have only a minor impact on global energy demand & emissions

Africa needs investment of $18.5 billion per year to 2030 to bring electricity to the 600 million people that currently lack access

All sources & forms of investment need to grow considerably to meet target

The World Energy Outlook has highlighted energy access for a decade & will continue to do so