global energy futures implications for emerging economies · global energy futures implications for...
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2018
Global Energy FuturesImplications for Emerging Economies
Matthew Wittenstein, Senior Electricity Analyst
July 19, 2018, Washington, D.C.
IEA
2© OECD/IEA 2018
The future is electrifying
Electricity generation by selected region
India adds the equivalent of today’s European Union to its electricity generation by 2040,
Middle East
2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000
Africa
Southeast Asia
European Union
India
United States
China
TWh2016 Growth to 2040
Sources of global
electricity demand growth
Industrial motors
Cooling
Large appliances
Connected & small
appliances
Electric vehicles
Other
while China adds the equivalent of today’s United States
Source: World Energy Outlook 2017
3© OECD/IEA 2018
Transport represents a major issue for climate change
Electrification can leverage power sector decarbonisation to support decarbonisation of
other sectors – in particular, transport.
CO2 emissions in the 2 Degree Scenario
Source: ETP 2017
4© OECD/IEA 2018
The global electric car stock is expanding rapidly, crossing the 3 million vehicle threshold in 2017. However, nearly all of these growth is constrained to three regions.
Transport electrification: rapid but uneven
Evolution of the global electric car stock, 2013-17
Source: IEA GEVO 2018
5© OECD/IEA 2018
China dominates global electricity demand for EVs. Largest year-on-year growth in electricity demand comes from light-duty vehicles (LDVs).
Electricity demand from EVs: China in the lead
Total electricity demand from EVs by country, 2017
Source: IEA GEVO 2018
6© OECD/IEA 2018
The EV30@30 Scenario sees 228 million EVs (excluding two- and three-wheelers), mostly LDVs, by 2030; around 100 million more than in the New Policies Scenario.
Global EV growth: the long road ahead
Global EV stock in the New Policies and EV30@30 scenarios, 2017-30
Source: IEA GEVO 2018
7© OECD/IEA 2018
Electricity demand in India is significantly higher in the transport and buildings sectors under the SDS, as compared to the NPS.
India focus: demand growth under NPS and SDS
India's energy consumption by sector and fuel in different scenarios
Source: World Energy Outlook 2017
8© OECD/IEA 2018
India has made significant progress in expanding electricity access throughout the country. However, a number of regions remain significantly underserved.
Electricity access: significant progress but more work to do
Source: IEA WEO 2017
9© OECD/IEA 2018
Adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), electricity in India is among the most expensive in the world. Residential prices are 30% higher than the global average, and industrial 40% higher.
Challenge for India: electricity affordability
Electricity prices for select countries in USD (adjusted for PPP)/ MWh
Source: IEA statistics
10© OECD/IEA 2018
For most distribution companies in India, the cost of supply of electricity is considerably higher than the average revenues they receive.
Challenge for India: distribution company financial viability
Comparison of cost of supply vs revenue realization for select states of India (2015)
Source: state distribution companies
11© OECD/IEA 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Ad
op
tio
n r
ate
(Yea
rs)
Year of invention
It took approximately 110 years for the steam ship to become adopted globally, 47 years for electricity, 14 years for PCs and cell phones, and only 6 years for the internet.
The opportunity: accelerating rate of technology adoption
Technological adoption lag between rich and poor countries, by year of invention
Electricity
Steam ships
PCs, cell phones
Internet
Electric furnace
Source: D. Comin and M. Mestieri, 2018
12© OECD/IEA 2018
www.iea.orgIEA