Global Economy Global Economy and and Global Global WarmingWarming

Dr. Sandra Cruz-Pol•Professor Electrical and Computer Engineering•CLiMMATe Lab Director (Cloud Microwave Measurements of ATmospheric Event) • UPRM-PI for the Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA)

February 22, 2007

This presentation can be found at:

http://http://ece.uprm.eduece.uprm.edu/~pol//~pol/outreachoutreach

Global Global EEconomyconomy

What’s the advantage of enhancing global economy?

Global

Economy

Global

Warming

Outline Outline

1. Problem: • Global Economy• Global Warming

2. Solutions: – individuals, – industry-governments

Economic DivideEconomic Divide

*Sachs, 20051800

YEAR

Wor

ld $

GNP per capitaGNP per capitapurchasing power parity

Poverty Trap – Clinical Poverty Trap – Clinical EconomicsEconomics• Physical Geography

– Arid conditions, high transport cost, isolation, mountain ranges, lack of navigable rivers, disease, climate

• Cultural Barriers– Role of women, ethic minorities, education

• Geopolitics: war, trade barriers, sanctions, debt• Lack of technology• Closed market=>Countries too poor to develop=>Need $ to hop onto 1st step of economic ladder

Why did England Why did England flourished?flourished?

1. Open market 2. Island- used to navigation, trading3. Technology- coal, steam engine4. Weather – not prompt for disease,

mosquitoes5. Education6. Basic needs: Nutrition, Health, Water7. Infrastructure

China & IndiaChina & India

Certain conditions helped these 2 countries flourish economically. Usually Green Revolution follows technological growth.

• IndiaIndia: invested in education; Indian Institutes of Technology, now paying off; now a world IT leader.– Was an English colony until 1947. – Began economic reforms in 1991 (Open Market)

China & India…China & India…

• ChinaChina: growing economic rate (9%!) in the World, after it opened to global trading.– Ancient civilization. Past technology leader, until

1400’s. – 1434 Ming emperor closes international trade,

dismantled world’s largest fleet of ocean vessels.– Japan invasion 1937. Mao Tse-tung 1949- 1976.– Market reforms began 1978.

***Global Warming: coal , oil…

Why is Africa an Why is Africa an exception?exception?

Too much Corruption

Laziness of people

+Sexually active: AIDS

Bad land-use

---------------------------------Myth#1: Truth: Less corrupted

----------------------------Myth#2 Truth: Backbreaking labor

----------------------------------Myth#3 Truth: Equal or less

-----------------------Myth#4 Truth: Global warming

Lake ChadLake Chad• Was the 6th largest

lake in the World!• A study by U.

Wisconsin-Madison and NASA's EOS, the lake is now 1/20th of the size it was 35 years ago.

• W. Africa (Chad, Niger, Nigeria, & Cameroon), the region has suffered from an increasingly dry climate, experiencing decline in rain since early 1960s.

We are causing Extreme poverty in Africa due to our emissions which accounts for 25% of all world emissions compared to Africa’s 3%.

Why is Africa an Why is Africa an exception?exception?

• Geography– Disease prompt weather: malaria– Vast regions with no navigable rivers– Sparsely populated– Lack of infrastructure: roads, bridges, etc.– Lack of health systems

• Years of exploitation • Political reasons; frontiers set by Europeans,• Huge external debt• Global warming due to developed world emissions

We can banish extreme We can banish extreme poverty ,poverty ,

• “ yet 8 million people die each year because they are too poor to survive.” , J.Sachs, The End of Poverty

With only $70/person/year for 5 years, we can help poor countries be self-sustained! ($0.21 daily)

– Currently, U.S. gives ~$15/pp/yr.

World's governments committed to provide 0.7% of rich-countries' gross domestic product (GDP) to Official Development Assistance. First pledged 35 years ago in a 1970 General Assembly Resolution, … has been affirmed many times over the years, including the 2002 Monterrey Consensus.

CharitiesCharities help provide help provide the basics: the basics: foodfoodmedicinesmedicinesvaccinesvaccineseducationeducation shelter shelterclean waterclean water

Extreme povertyExtreme poverty

UN Millennium Project GOALS:(www.unmillenniumproject.org)– Half extreme poverty by 2015– Aims to end extreme poverty by 2025

• What is extreme poverty?

• Versus relative poverty?

MP Goals:MP Goals:

Significant progress:1990 – 2002 • Average overall incomes increased

by ~ 21 percent. • The # of people in extreme poverty

declined by an estimated 130 million.

• Child mortality rates fell from 103 to 88 deaths per 1,000 live births a year.

• Life expectancy rose from 63 to 65 years.

• An additional 8% of the developing world's people received access to water.

• And an additional 15% acquired access to improved sanitation services.

Why bother?Why bother?

Less poor abroad means more poor here.• “Hard evidence has established strong linkages between

extreme poverty abroad and the threats to national security.”

• Better global economy provides new technologies developed in a diverse world. More products for everyone.

“Eliminating extreme poverty is a global responsibility that will have global benefits”

• Money spent on war instead could go to help the poor be self-sustained, to new technologies to stop global warming.

• This is the only way to achieve Global Peace

-----------------------------------------------------------Another Myth!Another Myth!

Poverty - a conflict Poverty - a conflict generating factor generating factor

“There is a close relation between poverty and internal conflict.“ Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 2001

Global WarmingGlobal Warming

1. Global Warming is NOT a theory; it’s a FACT.*

2. Scientific consensus: It’s caused by human activity, mainly carbon dioxide emissions.*

3. It’s happening now*

4. Some of its consequences are irreversible!*

* According to the most recent UN-IPCC 4th report published on Feb 2, 2007.

Global WarmingGlobal Warming

Global WarmingGlobal Warming

• World before Industrial revolution, 1800– CO2 level low <280ppm.

– ~No fossil fuel emissions (oil, coal, gas).

• Radiative transfer yielded thermodynamic global climate equilibrium for the last 100,000 years– Atmosphere like a blanket

Heat-trapping IR greenhouse gases.

A report in 2006 by economist Sir Nicholas Stern concludes that global warming could shrink the

global economy by 20%!

COCO22 in the atmosphere in the atmosphereYears: 1960-2000Years: 1960-2000

CO2 in Atmosphere

Years: 1000 -2100

Global average Global average temperaturetemperatureYears: 1860-2000Years: 1860-2000

Cold due to sulfuric emissions: (1940-1970) which caused lung cancer, asthma & acid rain

Clean Air Act

}

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/sci_nat/04/climate_change/html/climate.stm

Consequences:Consequences:

• Polar caps melt • Sea level rise• Extreme temperatures: BOTH cold and hot• Cyclones/tornadoes• Drought / floods• Disease• Agriculture losses• Water (potable) scarcity• Extinction of animal species, corals, vegetation• Worst case scenario: stop ocean conveyor belt

Puerto Rico

Dry Season

Puerto Rico

Wet Season

Kilimanjaro (Tanzania, Kilimanjaro (Tanzania, Africa)Africa)

30 years later…30 years later…

Patagonia (Argentina)Patagonia (Argentina)Longest Glacier in S.A.Longest Glacier in S.A.

1928

2004

Costa RicaCosta Rica

First official lost species due to Global warming: golden toad

Female Male

HurricanesHurricanes

• 10 hottest years ever, occurred in the last 14 yrs.• Hottest of all time, 2006.• 2004 1st hurricane ever in the S. Altantic Ocean• 2005 highest # of hurricanes,

– most intense, 6 Greek letters

• 2005 Wilma strongest hurricane ever recorded AOThen…• 2006 Monica strongest hurricane ever recorded

• Luckily, this year, El Niño decreases # hurricanes

Potential Flooding in PRPotential Flooding in PR

Icebergs with caves = Icebergs with caves = broken food chainbroken food chain

60% of krill population killed because of this.

Krill are small shrimp-like crustaceans zooplankton, food for baleen whales, mantas, whale sharks, seals, and a few seabird species

Worst case scenario: Worst case scenario: abrupt changeabrupt changeIPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)Climate Change)

Due to change in salinity, if Artic keeps melting, this current could stop, creating a small ice age in Europe and North America.

On top of this…On top of this…

New blooming economies want to live their own version of the

“American Dream”.

Example: in China, the traditional bicycle lane was closed to lay way to an extra automobile lane. India is now also flourishing economically and greatly increasing their CO2 emissions.

Tardó TODA la historia de la humanidad para llegar a 1,000 millones en 1800.

Crecimiento Población Mundial

2000

1987

1975

1960

1930

1800

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

10,000 BC 5,000 BC Year 0 1000 2000

X m

il m

illon

es

Also Political IssuesAlso Political Issues

• Oil industry interests, – Lobbyists

• Governments covering up scientific evidence – (e.g. NASA climatologist, Jim Hansen)

• Real cost of Nuclear energy – versus cost of clean energy like solar or wind– Health hazards, radioactive waste deposit

Potential SolutionsPotential Solutions

Reduce CO2 emissions:• Reduce energy consumption • Alternative green power: solar, wind, biofuels,…• Reforestation• Increase fuel efficiency; e.g. fuel cell, hybrid carsScientific propositions:• CO2 sequestration • Inject sulfur in stratosphere• Distribute iron oxide to SA oceanEmission trading- Kyoto Protocol:• Signed by 135 nations to reduce emissions. • Not signed by U.S. or Australia!, the 2 nations with the

highest emissions.

Economic advantageEconomic advantage

• Advantage will go to countries that take the leadership to develop renewable energy technologies, green building construction codes, and energy conservation and efficiency.

Auto Sales in US [1st quarter 2006 %change]

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Ford GM Chyrler Toyota Honda

% change in sales

Example:Example: Auto Sales in U.S. Auto Sales in U.S. 20062006

http://advisor.investopedia.com/news/

Eco UrbanaEco Urbana

Solar powered & rainwater filtration system.

The Good News is…The Good News is…

We can make a difference…

We’ve done it before!:We’ve done it before!: Ozone LayerOzone Layer Montreal Protocol's ban Montreal Protocol's ban on CFCson CFCs• For years, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were the agents--

contributing to the destruction of the Earth's ozone layer.

• After the Montreal Protocol's ban on CFCs, slightly-more benign HCFCs replaced them..

Ahorra $$$, Ahorra $$$, Salva el Salva el planetaplaneta

Cada vez que utilizamos electricidad o gasolina, incluso agua, estamos enviando emisiones como CO2 a la atmósfera que la calientan aún más.

Los enseres eléctricos aún APAGADOS GASTAN energía

Se llaman Cargas Fantasmas!!

Some examples

Ahorras $5 a $50 al mes si: apagas los enseres (o mejor aún desconéctelos) cuando no los estés usando.

Usa un “power strip” para conectar varios enseres y así los apaga todos a la vez.

Mito vs. Realidad: el prender y apagar enseres, los daña. FALSO! Eso ocurría hace 2 décadas. Desconecta y Ahorra!

Luces FLUORESCENTES Luces FLUORESCENTES COMPACTASCOMPACTAS

AHORRAS $50 por AHORRAS $50 por bombilla durante bombilla durante la vida de la la vida de la bombillabombilla

•Usan 75% menos Usan 75% menos electricidad.electricidad.

•Duran 10 veces Duran 10 veces más.más.

Baterías recargablesBaterías recargablesComparación CostoComparación Costo [4 AA y [4 AA y 4 AAA]4 AAA]

AHORRAS

$850+ por cada 8 baterías recargables !!

*

¿Qué ¿Qué compro?compro?

• Una Una estufa o secadora estufa o secadora de gasde gas te te ahorra unos $25-$50ahorra unos $25-$50 mensuales! mensuales!

• Tender la ropa Tender la ropa al sol, ahorra aún al sol, ahorra aún másmás..

¿Qué ¿Qué compro?compro?

Compra enseres que tengan un bajo uso de energía.

¡Compara!

Puedes ahorrar de $10- 60 mensuales por cada uno!!

ReforestaciónReforestación

SiembraSiembra árboles árboles– Bajan la temperatura del Bajan la temperatura del

hogar hasta 10 grados F!,hogar hasta 10 grados F!,– ¡Aumentar valor de propiedad!¡Aumentar valor de propiedad!

– Reducen emisiones de COReducen emisiones de CO22

*El Fideicomiso *El Fideicomiso te regalate regala 200 200 árboles gratis!árboles gratis!

Computadoras Computadoras

• Apágala si no la vas a usar en 1.5 horas o más.

• NO dejes el “adapter” conectado!!!

• Apaga también la impresora y bocinas si no las estás usando.

• Desconéctalas por las noches.

CargadoreCargadoress

• ¡No dejes el cargador del celular conectado si no lo estás usando!

• Usa de 70-95% de la energía.

¿Qué compro?¿Qué compro?Un calentador solarUn calentador solar Ahorra $40-$100 mensualAhorra $40-$100 mensual Dura 30+ años!Dura 30+ años!

¿Aires?¿Aires?

• Usa abanicos en vez de aires acondicionados en noches frescas.– Puedes ahorrar

$70-$100 mensualmente!

Ahorras $6,000 en 5

años y $12,000 en 10 años!

Carros Carros HíbridosHíbridos

Toma en cuenta gastos inicial y gastos debido a eficiencia de combustible del auto de gasolina versus auto híbrido.

¿Qué compro?¿Qué compro?

• Una piscina de fibra de vidrio (fiberglass) gasta 1/3 de la energía que una piscina de concreto

• Además la de fibra tiene menos filtraciones de agua.

Escoge piscina de fibra de vidrio

Viajes en AviónViajes en Avión

Other Things to Do– Other Things to Do– Save $ with Save $ with NO initial NO initial costcost1. Turn off water faucet,

• shower not baths, flow • change shower head

2. Clean air-conditioning filters

3. Tune-up car, keep balanced, Accelerate minimum only

*MPG

4. Turn down Water heater, and air conditioner

• Use sheets instead of blankets

5. Use cold water for washing cloths!• Hang clothes if possible

6. Use dishwasher only when full• Wash by hand if possible

7. Eating habits:• Eat less meat (less methane); • Eat local products

9. Car pooling, walking or biking

10.Avoid sanitary dishes/napkins• Both styrofoam or paper

11.Buy products with least packaging• Large family packs• Gift bags instead of wrapping• Water bottles!

*Packaging and clean water production needs a lot of energy and releases tons of CO2 in the atmosphere annually.

12.Be a wise consumer• Buy less• Give away things you not longer use.

Everex.com

13.Recycle! • (plastic, paper, cardboard, cans, glass)

14.Email your senators, government officials: • Sign petition at www.undoit.org

• Sign petition at climatecrisis.org

To Do…To Do…

15.Use public transportation

16.Eat organic products (better health, less Br)

17.Consider wind or solar power18.Use silicone or dark baking pans: Bake T-25oF

19.Use reusable plastic or cloth coffee filter

Transportation accounts for 67% of oil used!

Green means it’s also good for your HEALTH.

Small changes, make a big Small changes, make a big difference:difference:

Let’s use its Let’s use its resources resources efficiently so that efficiently so that we can all benefit we can all benefit from it.from it.

We are ONE We are ONE human race; human race; we only have ONE we only have ONE planet. planet.

Book References:Book References:

• The End of Poverty by Jeffrey Sachs

• Weather Makers by Tim Flannery

• An Inconvenient Truth by Al Gore

• The World is Flat by Thomas Friedman

• Global Warming by Chris Spence

• Pathologies of Power, Paul Farmer

• Mini Atlas of Global Development, The World Bank

• Economics of Climate Change, Sir Nick Stern

Web References…Web References…

• www.nasa.gov• www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming• www.povertymap.net• www.unmillenniumproject.org• www.st-edmunds.cam.ac.uk• www.noaa.gov• www.borgenproject.org• www.unicef.org• www.energyhog.org FUN!! (PC games)