global demand for us hardwood exports. what is ahec? the american hardwood export council (ahec),...
TRANSCRIPT
Global Demand
forUS
Hardwood Exports
What is AHEC?• The American
Hardwood Export Council (AHEC), founded in 1988, is an umbrella organization that represents U.S. hardwood exporting companies and major U.S. hardwood product trade associations.
• The purpose of AHEC is to increase the value and volume of U.S. value-added hardwood exports through overseas market development and promotional activities and increase consumption of wood worldwide.
AHEC’s Global Reach
Why Exports Matter• Fourth largest market
for hardwood production after pallets, furniture, and dimension/components
This gap is widening. Since 1983, exports of value-added hardwood products have increased an
average of 6.4% by volume and 10.1% by value per annum.
• Absorbs approximately 9% of production by volume, but over 14% by value
U.S. Hardwood Exports1986-2002
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Logs & Chips Value-Added
AHEC Formed
$ Million
Top 10 Markets for Hardwood Lumber: 1990
& 20022002
Mexico13%
Italy13%
Spain14%
Hong Kong18%
China18%
UK8%
Japan7%
Taiwan6%
Germany3%
Source: USDA
1990
Spain6%
Mexico5%UK
14%
Japan27%
Germany8%
Taiwan10%
Belg./Lux.11%
Neth.4%
France5%
Italy10%
Top Markets for Red Alder Lumber: 2000-2002
(Cubic Meters)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
China Mexico HongKong
I taly Taiwan Korea
2000 2001 2002
Source: The World Trade AtlasSource: The World Trade Atlas
Value of Hardwood Lumber Exports to Japan
1995-2002
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
($ Thousand F.A.S. Value)
Source: US Census Bureau
Japan Market Overview
• Until late 1990’s Japan was second largest market for U.S. hardwood products;
• Manufacturing moved offshore, required shift in promotional strategy;
• AHEC’s focus moved from promoting to manufacturers and traders to specifiers (interior designers/architects) and consumers via event driven public relations
Japan’s Furniture Imports
050
100150200250300350400
'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 2000 2001
Value of furniture imports (Billion yen)
Custom statistics, JapaneseMinistry of Finance
Hang Tag Promotion:Environmental Focus
Eco-Furniture Design Contest
Value of Hardwood Lumber Exports to Korea
1995-2002
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
($ Thousands F.A.S. value)
Source: US Census Bureau
Market Challenges/ Opportunities
•Relocation of Manufacturing Facilities Offshore
•Emerging remodeling market segment--Government removed “cap” on resale prices
•Price sensitive
•Untrained specifiers and designers
AHEC/AF&PA Korea Office September 2002
US Hardwood Exports to US Hardwood Exports to ChinaChina
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
• Year to year increase of nearly $34 million over 2002• Volume of lumber exports increase more than 62%
($ Thousands FAS value)($ Thousands FAS value)
China: Hardwood Import Market Share
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 1999 2000 2001
Mar
ket
Sh
are
(%)
IndonesiaEU 15MalaysiaUSGermany
Source: Global Trade Index
Top Five Lumber Species Exported to China
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
RedAlder
Red Oak YellowPoplar
Maple WhiteOak
($ Thousands FAS value)($ Thousands FAS value)
Demand Drivers• GDP and Population Growth
– Rising Income• Construction• Furniture, Architectural Woodwork and
Packaging• Relative Price Competitiveness with
Other Materials• Historical and Cultural Factors
– Consumer Tastes
GDP Growth% Change from Previous Year
0123456789
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
China USA EU
Source: The World bank..Source: The World bank..
Chinese Consumption:Did You Know….?
• GM sold more cars in Shanghai than any other city in 2002
• China buys more camera equipment than Japan.
• More cell phones than the U.S.• More televisions than France.• More cars than Germany
Real Estate Boom
• Housing Privatization-1999
• “Turnkey” Construction-2002
• Increasingly sophisticated and wealthy consumers driving domestic demand for higher quality interior products.
Chinese Building ActivityTotal Floor Space
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
In Billions of cubic meters In Billions of cubic meters Source: Chinese Ministry of Construction, 2001Source: Chinese Ministry of Construction, 2001
Quality Sample ProgramInterior of model home in Shanghai outfitted with U.S. hardwoods
Quality Sample Program
Chinese Furniture Production and Exports:
1997-2002
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Production Exports
Billion $US
Source: China National Furniture Association
Major Furniture Exporters:Major Furniture Exporters:1998-20011998-2001
0
2
4
6
8
10
Italy Germany Canada China
1998199920002001
$US $US BillionBillion
..
Source: CSIL Milano
Per Capita Wood Consumption
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
China World OECD USA
In cubic meters per capitaIn cubic meters per capitaSource: China Timber Import Export Co/Hardwoodmarkets.com 2001Source: China Timber Import Export Co/Hardwoodmarkets.com 2001
China Domestic Timber Output Under NFCP
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2003
Source: China Timber Import Export Co/IFSA Consulting, 2001Source: China Timber Import Export Co/IFSA Consulting, 2001
China Timber Production from Plantations 1995-
2015
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Coniferous Broad Leaf
Volume (1000 Cubic Meters)
Source: China Timber Import/Export Co., 2001
Chinese Timber Consumption and
Production: 2000-2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2010
Chinese Production Imports
Source: China Timber Import Source: China Timber Import Export Co., 2001Export Co., 2001
Millions of cubic meters
US Hardwood Log Exports to China: 1997-2002
(Thousands of Cubic Meters)
0102030405060708090
100
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: USDA-FASSource: USDA-FAS
Other Markets to Watch
• Southeast Asia/Vietnam• Middle East• Mexico• Caribbean
•**The EU**
Hardwood Lumber Exports by Volume - 2002 (m3)
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000
India
S/C America
Caribbean
Oceania
Non EU Europe
Korea
M iddle East
Southeast Asia
Japan
M exico
Greater China
EU
Source: US Census Bureau
US Hardwood Lumber Exports by Value 2002
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000
S/C America
Caribbean
Oceania
Non EU Europe
South Africa
Korea
M iddle East
Southeast Asia
Japan
M exico
Greater China
EU
Source: US Census Bureau
($1,000)
Average Unit Values of Hardwood Lumber Exports
2002
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
China Korea UK Japan Italy
($ per cubic meter F.A.S. Value)
Source: US Census Bureau
Eastern European Hardwood Exports to European Union
(million euros)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002Source: Hardwoodmarkets.com
www.ahec-europe.orgwww.ahec-europe.org
www.sustainablehardwoods.iwww.sustainablehardwoods.infonfo
S.E.Asia: Market OverviewS.E.Asia: Market Overview
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
U.S. Hardwood Log, Lumber & Veneerto S.E. Asia
Log
Lumber
Veneer
Million Million US$US$
US Exports to VietnamUS Exports to Vietnam
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
U.S. Hardwood Log, Lumber & Veneerto Vietnam
Log
Lumber
Veneer
Million Million US$US$
Value of Hardwood Lumber Imports to Mexico
1996-2002($ Thousands F.A.S. value)
Source: US Census Bureau
US Hardwood Lumber Exports by Volume - 2002 (mUS Hardwood Lumber Exports by Volume - 2002 (m33))Under-promoted MarketsUnder-promoted Markets
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
India
S. & C. America
Oceania
Vietnam
South Africa
Non-Eu Europe
Caribbean
Middle East
Source: US Census Bureau
For additional information
contact:
AHEC Headquarters1111 19th Street, NW,
Suite 800Washington, DC 20036Phone: 202/463-2720
Fax: 202/463-2787www.ahec.org