Guest Editor: O L A V S L A Y M A K E R Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, #217-1984 West Mall, Vancouver, BC Canada, V6T 1 W5

FOCUS: GLOBAL CHANGE

Over the past few years, geographers have become in- creasingly aware of how far we have strayed from the roots of our discipline - that search for an understanding of planet Earth as the home of humanity. One of the recent reminders of this fact has been our late and some- what tentative response to the challenge and opportuni- ties of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Pro- gramme, commonly referred to as the Global Change Programme. We had heard whispers from our senior (very senior) colleagues of a time when World Geography was a required course in every Geography Curriculum and Regional Geography courses by definition incorpo- rated both socio-economic and biophysical components. But how, we thought, could such old-fashioned courses produce useful insights into such central geographic problems as the behavioural dynamics of the living rooms (or was it one living room?) of post-modernist yuppies or the limitations of a bedstead for the measurement of splash effects in badlands?

As has apparently happened previously in our disci- pline, we have been marching better and better to the drummers of the previous decade (cf. Hewitt and Hare 1973). Of course, I am exaggerating, because every- where I now travel I find Geography Departments re- vamping their curricula, at the very least at first-year level, to demonstrate the geographer's lively concern

with understanding of global scale issues (whether sus- tainable development or greenhouse warming) and the optimistic note of the following contributions confirms that we are waking up, not a moment too soon, to the birthright that we almost sold for a mess of reductionist pottage.

The Canadian Association of Geographers has taken the initiative of creating two committees to co-ordinate information exchange on biophysical (M.K. Woo, Chair) and human dimensions of global change (T.C. Meredith, Chair). It should be a matter of pride in the Canadian geographical community that Canadian geographers have been selected (a) to articulate a position on global change for the Geological Survey of Canada (B.H. Luck- man) and (b) to act as a member of the International Social Science Council's Standing Committee on the human dimensions of global change and to continue to play a leading role in the International Geographical Union (L.A. Kosinski). Statements by Luckman and Meredith provide a context for geographical research. Each recog- nizes the interdependence of the biophysical and human dimensions and directs attention to major unresolved research questions. Woo and Kosinski identify vehicles for information exchange and co-ordinated research activity by geographers.

GLOBAL CHANGE: THE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF CANADA PERSPECTIVE B.H. Luckman D.C. Harry Department of Geography, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 5C2 Ontario, Canada

Terrain Sciences Division, Geological Survey of Canada, Ottawa,

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'Geological processes are fundamental to the under- standing of Global Change and the geological record provides a baseline against which to assess the nature and significance of contemporary global change' (Price 1986).

The Geological Survey of Canada has traditionally been the principal architect and archivist of Canada's Geosci- ence database. Many current activities of the Survey are directly relevant to Global Change issues and senior sci- entists have played a significant role in the development

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84 Focus: Global Change

of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme on the international and national scene. Discussion of a focused contribution to the Canadian Global Change Programme began in Terrain Sciences Division in 1987 (TSD 1988). This article summarizes discussions held during 1989 to identify areas where the Geological Sur- vey of Canada feels it can contribute to Global Change Initiatives.

Canada’s vast extent (7% of the earth’s land surface), critical high-latitude position, and dominant role in glob- al climates of the past and present, ensure that the Cana- dian landmass and bordering oceans will attract con- siderable international attention within the International Geosphere-Biopshere Programme. For example, it i s im- possible to model former global climates without under- standing the history of the Laurentide Icesheet. Canada has a longer coastline and more bounding oceans than any other country. From a Geological Survey of Canada perspective, several aspects of the Global Change issue are critical: (a) What can we learn from past and present environments that can be used to predict the behaviour of present and future climate-process systems? (b) What i s the present rate and magnitude of environmental change in Canada? and (c) What areas of Canada may be at risk due to the impact of global change? Answering these questions will assist in the formulation of policies to deal with the social and economic consequences of global change.

Global Change studies are particularly important in the Arctic because: (a) existing predictive climate models suggest that global warming will be greatest and first detected in Arctic environments; (b) the Canadian Arctic plays a critical role in determining global climate and ocean circulation and an understanding of these roles i s vital to future climatic scenarios; (c) the Geological Sur- vey of Canada has considerable strength and expertise in Arctic science; (d) Canada has more diverse Arctic en- vironments than any other country and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme looks to Canada for scientific leadership in this area; (e) Arctic science is a growing field for potential international co-operation (e.g., the new Polar Commission); and (0 there are strong non-scientific arguments in favour of an Arctic research focus (hydrocarbon potential, development problems, national defence, sovereignty). Although studies will also be undertaken in other environments, an Arctic focus is implicit in the four scientific themes identified as major components of the Geological Survey of Canada’s con- tribution to the International Geosphere-Biosphere Pro- gramme.

Studies of Contemporary Environments

Global Change is ultimately about the way mankind modifies the earth‘s environment. To understand this problem it is essential to document the way natural sys- tems behave and interact, and to separate these natural interactions from human modifications of the system. The Geological Survey of Canada studies of contemporary environments will have four major goals: inventory of environments which are poorly known (e.g., many Arctic environmental parameters) or particularly sensitive; monitoring present environments to establish linkages within the climate-vegetation (biota)-surface process system; provision of analogues to calibrate paleoenviron- mental reconstructions (e.g., development of transfer functions); and documentation and evaluation of the nature, rate, and implications of present environmental change (natural and man-induced). Ongoing and planned studies include glacier mass balance in the High Arctic, permafrost and active layer geothermal regime, erosion and sedimentation, modern pollen rain, sea ice, and terrain hazards. Monitoring the present range and spectrum of activity of a variety of geomorphic processes i s an essential prerequisite to forecasting future changes. On a regional basis, particular attention will be given to central Ellesmere Island and the Mackenzie Delta/ corri- dor areas.

Evaluation of the Paleoenvironmental Record

The recovery and interpretation of data relating to environmental change in the past is crucial to under- standing present Global Changes. Several significant breakthroughs that show how earth systems interact have come from investigations of the paleorecord preserved in ice sheets, ocean sediments, and organic deposits. There is an urgent need to establish and refine the paleoenviron- mental record to (a) place recent changes in the perspec- tive of long-term earth system evolution, (b) evaluate and test global predictive models, (c) isolate natural from anthropogenic causes of environmental change, and (d) address critical questions about the global carbon cycle.

Two major scientific priorities include:

1. The establishment of a comprehensive record of Holocene environmental change, and in particular, a record of the last 1000 years with annual resolution. This period immediately predates the instrumental climate record, upon which greenhouse scenarios are based, and includes both the Little Ice Age and Early

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Medieval Warm Period. Attention should also be focused on the early Holocene warm period (Hypsi- thermal) when, in many areas, temperatures were 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above present.

2 . Development of an understanding of earth system changes by the study of critical periods in the paleo- record when major rapid adjustmentsoccurred within the global climate-environment system. These periods should offer considerable insight into the ways in which the climate-ocean system operates and influences other environmental conditions. The most detailed and best resolved intervals of this type are the Pleistocene / Holocene transition (including the Younger Dryas event) and the last glacial-interglacial cycle (e.g., Isotope Stage 5e). The Geological Survey of Canada also has considerable expertise in the study of earlier periods (e.g., the Tertiary-Quaternary transi- tion) to provide insight into a world without major icecaps and higher COz levels.

These paleoenvironmental data wil l indicate how the earth’s environmental systems have behaved in the past over various temporal and spatial scales and in response to a wide variety of forcing functions. Together with the results from studies of contemporary environments, they can be used to produce reasonable scenarios for future changes, and to test and constrain global circulation models. They may also, by extending the instrumental record further into the past, enable clearer separation of natural and anthropogenic changes.

Global Carbon Cycle

The global carbon cycle is one of the central scientific problems to be addressed in global change research. Both COz and CH4 are major greenhouse gases and the evaluation and measurement of sources, transfers, and sinks for carbon is essential for accurate determination of possible future changes in atmospheric composition and potential greenhouse warming scenarios. Major interna- tional experimental programmes have been initiated to address the problems of the carbon cycle in the oceans (e.g., Platt et al. 1989) and in Canadian sub-Arctic wet- lands (Schiff and Barrie, 1988). In studies of the carbon cycle by CSC, priority areas are (a) carbon flux and burial in oceans, particularly in the nearshore and Arctic, (b) modern carbon flux in coastal and shelf environments; (c) evaluation of the extent and potential impacts of global warming on gas hydrates in permafrost and ocean floor areas, and (d) carbon release and balance in lakes and peatlands.

Sea level and Coastal Environments

Global sea level rise of 0.25-1.50 m over the next cen- tury has been predicted as a result of global warming due to the thermal expansion of ocean waters and accelerated glacier melt. In Canada, determining sea-level fluctua- tions i s a complex problem due to tectonic and isostatic effects. In addressing this problem the Geological Survey of Canada will focus on three main elements: (1) Ex- amination of instrumental and proxy records to deter- mine recent trends in sea level and the historic response of sea level to Holocene fluctuations in climate (e.g., Little Ice Age, Neoglacial), tectonic activity, and isostatic rebound; ( 2 ) modelling and prediction of sea-level changes due to thermal, geodynamic, and neotectonic effects plus changing glacier mass balance; and (3) analy- sis of the potential effects of sea-level change on coastal environments (coastal erosion and circulation patterns, sediment budgets, loss of wetland /coastal marshes, im- pacts on ice-rich terrain, engineering mitigation of effects, etc).

In addition to the four major thrusts outlined above, a number of other activities are being carried out within the Geological Survey of Canada that provide important data for Global Change studies (e.g., ongoing Quaternary and surficial mapping - both terrestrial and marine - supplies background information and precise geochronological data for more specific Global Change studies). The en- vironmental geochemistry programme provides data on the natural variations in surface geochemistry, against which anthropogenic impact must be measured (e.g., in acid rain studies) and on the effects of changing geo- chemistry on the mobility of elements, and also provides both the tools and tracers for groundwater and pollution studies. These studies provide local or regional examples of the impact of society on the surface environment, which can be generalized into global change models.

The Geological Survey of Canada has traditionally been a major contributor to Canadian earth sciences research. The huge scope and timeframe of operation ( 1 0-20 years) of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme will force an integration of government, university and industry research programmes, to provide an adequate science framework for policy formulation. The major players within the Geological Survey of Cana- da initiatives will be Terrain Sciences Division, Institute of Sedimentary and Petroleum Geology, and the Atlantic and Pacific Geoscience Centres because of their man- dates and existing interdisciplinary expertise in paleoen- vironmental reconstruction and process studies.

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The four major scientific elements identified above, as with other scientific programmes in the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, are directed towards understanding the way in which earth systems operate so that we may assess the possible repercussions of man- kind’s activities on the system. If we understand the sys- tem we may perhaps be better able to manage it and contain or direct the changes. However, the ultimate solutions to the global change problems lie only partially within the realm of scientist’s capacity to understand the earth system and to provide alternative energy solutions. The necessary actions also demand difficult social, eco- nomic, and political decisions at local, national, and international levels, though the provision of adequate supporting scientific data is an essential prerequisite to making those decisions. Understanding how the system presently operates and ha5 operated in the past may provide critical insight into ensuring its future.

Global change studies cannot be carried out in isola- tion: the essence of the global change approach to scien- ce is its interdisciplinary nature. Scientific funds and

THE CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF GEOGRAPHERS AND THE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL CHANGE: ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT, AND

T.C. Meredith SOCIO-ECOLOG ICAL EQUILIBRATION

Department of Geography, Burnside Hall, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke St. West, Quebec, Canada H3A 2K6

The human dimensions of global change are these: hu- man activity initiates and perpetuates modification of the global habitat; human technology increases both human numbers and, often, the per capita impact on the habitat; humans suffer as resource systems collapse. But we are not bound or blind in this relationship. Humans are ca- pable of foresight and analysis and can make conscien- tiously adaptive responses. This i s perhaps the most interesting aspect of global change.

The publication of the report of the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED 1987), perhaps more than any other single event, brought environmental matters onto the public agenda. But experience with the ‘issue attention cycle‘ (Downs 1972) suggests that this may provide professionals, including geographers, with only a short ‘window of opportunity’ for ameliorative interventions.

One form of intervention is to enhance the predictive

manpower are scarce resources and there must be active co-operation among scientists in government agencies, the university community, and industry. The quality and thought we put into our global change science will be scrutinized by other scientists in this and future genera- tions. It is important to make good decisions; relevance cannot be compromised by expediency, scientific, or instititional territoriality. The results of the programme will be judged by what it achieves, not by what it i s called. All scientists will have to make critical decisions about the priorities in their science: if Global Change simply devolves into a mega-bandwagon, it will fail.

Acknowledgments

The material presented above was developed during discussions whilst the senior author was Global Change Coordinator, Terrain Sciences Division, Geological Survey of Canada. He i s grateful to Dr. D.A. St- Onge, Director, Terrain Sciences Division, and many other colleaguesfor input into these discussions. This paper is Geological Survey of Canada Contribution 41 289.

capacity of our scientific models. Another is to learn to deal with uncertainty. We are at a crossroads. Seeing that, interpreting it correctly, and responding to it may represent the most important human dimension of global change.

The specific threat of climate change is instructive. As the sophistication of analytic tools increases, so the pre- dictions become ever more complex and uncertain. In the end, we know that we should prepare for something, but we don’t know what. Hence, we must work to clarify our vision of the future, and we must also work to main- tain the broadest repertoire of responses. Foresight and flexibility are vital.

Flexibility (or variability) is the basis of biotic adapta- tion, and foresight (or cognition) is the basis of cultural adaptation. Species and cultures thrive as long as their environmental relations are sound, not in a static way, but in a dynamic, adaptive way: a process that E.O.

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