general motor risk final
DESCRIPTION
general motor case riskTRANSCRIPT
R I S K I N D E N T I F I C AT I O N , R I S K M E A S U R E M E N T , R I S K M A P P I N G
GENERAL MOTOR RISK
Syndicate 6
A L F I A N D I I . M AWA R D I 2 9 1 1 2 4 9 1A N A S I A P U S PA 2 9 1 1 2 4 7 7
C H R I S T I A N I N GT YA S A . P. P2 9 1 1 2 5 4 6
F E R RY K R I S N A 2 9 1 1 2 4 7 9H E N N Y Z A H RA N Y 2 9 1 1 2 5 5 1I N KA B A H A R 2 9 1 1 2 4 4 3
GENERAL MOTOR RISK
Syndicate 6
INTRODUCTION
General Motors was the world’s largest automaker in 2001 with 15.1% market share. GM was founded in 1908. GM had manufacturing operations in more than 30 countries, and its vehicle were sold in approximately 200 countries.Eric Feldstein had three risk management decisions to make: what to do about (i) GM’s billion dollar exposure to the Canadian dollar, (ii) GM’s exposure to the Argentinean peso in light of the expected devaluation in the months ahead, and (iii) the continuing strategic concern about fluctuations in the Japanese yen, which figured so heavily into the cost structures of some of GM’s competitors.
CORPORATE HEDGING POLICY
Three Primary Objectives:1. Reduce cash flow and earnings volatility2. Minimize the management time & cost in FX
management3. Align FX management that consistent with how
GM operates its automotive business
CORPORATE HEDGING POLICY (2)
• Translation exposures are ignored• Functional currency: Primary operating currency • Passive hedging is preferred over active• 50% forward contracts (1-6 months), and• 50% options (months 7-12)• Combined hedge, the options: 25% of hedge
position• Rolling forward creates over or under hedge• Average delta hedge ratio is 37,5% (tolerance +/-
5%)
RISKS FROM FX MANAGEMENT
1. Transactional Exposures Debts and A/R Affect income statement2. Translational Exposures3. Operational Exposures
OBJECTIVES
• Risk Identification• Risk Measurement• Risk Mapping
FOREIGN CURRENCY EXPOSURE – CAD EXPOSURE
• Functional currency: US Dollar (Despite large CAD asset & liabilities)• Projected Cash Flow Exposure: 1,7 Bill CAD• Net monetary asset/liability: 2,1 Bill CAD• Propose to hedge up to 75%, as the policy didn’t
allow for Translation exposure
COMPARISON HEDGE RATIO 50% 75%
3.1% Stronger
3.1% Weaker
3.1% Stronger
3.1% Weaker
Commecial exposure
12-month rolling net receivables forecast (CAD) -1,682 -1,682 -1,682 -1,682
Notional hedge amount at hedge ratio (CAD) -841 -841 -1,261 -1,261
Net Cash (CAD) - -
FX hedge put in place (CAD) 841 841 1,261 1,261
Net FX exposure (CAD) -841 -841 -420 -420
GM Worldwide US GAPP FX exposure
GM Worldwide US GAPP FX exposure (CAD) -2,143 -2,143 -2,143 -2,143
Earnings Impact on GM Worldwide
GM Worldwide FX gain/loss -43.4 40.8 -43.4 40.8
FX gain/loss on hedges 17 -16 25.6 24
GM Worldwide pre-tax income impact -26.4 24.8 -17.9 16.8
GM Worldwide after-tax (35%) income impact -17.2 16.1 -11.6 10.9
EPS (550 million shares outstanding) -0.031 0.029 -0.021 0.020
USING FORWARD & OPTIONS TO HEDGE
1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8
-2000000
-1500000
-1000000
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
ExposureExp + OptionExp + Forward
Exchange Rates
Cash Flow
FORWARD OR OPTIONS?
• Options: higher payoff when the CAD depreciates, higher loss when the CAD apreciates. • Considering the volatility and the premium cost,
forward contracts are more desirable. • But, option contracts, in this case, are a more
flexible choice that cost GM only the premiums, but can be easily traded in the market • Forward contracts, on the other hand, are a fixed
obligation locked in with a large notional amount.
D E VA LU AT I O N R I S K
ARGENTINEAN PESO
HEDGE IN 1- 6 MONTHS
HEDGE IN 6-12 MONTHS
HEDGE IN AFTER 12 MONTHS
J PY C U R R E N CY R I S K
COMPETITIVE EXPOSURES
COMPETITIVE EXPOSURES (1)
1 JPY content per vehicle 30%2 JPY devaluation 20%3 Cost savings passed on to costumer 30%4 Vehicle price reduction (1*2*3) 1.80% 4 Vehicle price reduction 1.80%5 Sales elasticity 26 Japanese Annual Sales in US (units) 4100000
7 Increase in Japanese Sales (units) (4*5*6) 147600
COMPETITIVE EXPOSURES (2)
7 Increase in Japanese Sales (units) 147600
8 JPY sales cross elasticity to GM 33%9 Loss in GM sales (7*8) 49200 9 Loss in GM sales (7*8) 4920010 GM unit contribution margin $ 5,966.67
11 GM pre-tax loss (millions) (9*10) $ 293.56
12 Discount rate 20%13 Present value of loss (millions) $1,467.80
YEN EXPOSURE
AFFILIATE EXPOSURE TOTAL YEN EXPOSURE ($ BILLION)
AFFILIATE
AFFILIATE EXPOSURE
GM SHAR
EGM Affiliate Exposure
FUJI -1.5 20% -0.30
ISUZU -1.02 49% -0.50
SUZUKI -0.09 20% -0.02
TOTAL -0.82
Competitive exposure 1.47
Commercial exposure 0.90
Affiliate investment exposure
-0.82
JPY bonds exposure -0.50
TOTAL 1.05
RISKS SCORE
No Risk Type Probability Impact Score
1CAD RISK Transaction
Translation 4 10 40
2ARS RiskDefault & Devaluation 10 3 30
3JPYCompetitive risk/currency risk 9 5 45
RISK MAP MODEL
• CAD: Significant risk that’s unlikely to happen• JPY & ARS: Risks that happen from day to day
CONCLUSION• General Motor is a multinational company that closes with
global operation risks, such as transactional, translation and economic
• Hedging strategies will help GM to mitigate all risks that appeared in global operation if GM does those strategies correctly. Failure hedge may results a volatile cash flow and makes losses in net income and shareholder’s equity
• CAD transaction risk by using the 50% hedge ratio, the currency exposure could gain higher profit but more volatile. In contrast, by using the 75% hedge ratio, the currency exposure possible gains lower profit but less volatile.
• So that, higher hedge ratio may acquire less volatile with more hedging cost.
CONCLUSION
• Between option and forward contract, Forward contract has beneficial gains that considered in the volatility and the premium cost• In Argentina, to mitigate this devaluation risk, GM
could choose the shortest hedging process to reduce the hedging cost (hedge in 6-12 month)• Base on risk mapping analysis, JPY and ARS has
low significant risk but its happen day by day. In contrast, CAD has significant risk that seldom to happen
RECOMMENDATION
• Hedging shouldn’t be interpreted as an all access pass to risk-taking. It has to be fully responsible
• GM should implement a strategy of paying its employees and suppliers based on the real exchange rate between Peso and Dollar, calculated by comparing the PPPs of both countries.
• It should also demand its receivables from the Argentinean government instantly, in order to convert them into USD before devaluation. If it is not possible, it can enter into a forward contract with the government at a predetermined exchange rate, in order to partially offset its exposure.
RECOMMENDATION
• Ongoing translational exposure will affect the book value of assets and liabilities over a period of time. They are largely affected by medium-term volatility and should be hedged using one-year forward contract.