gareth haysom [compatibility mode]

Pathways to SustainabilityPathways to Sustainability

January 2003January 2003

What is SustainableWhat is SustainableDevelopment?Development?

Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development

•• SustainabilitySustainability is a ‘direction’ not a fixed goalis a ‘direction’ not a fixed goal–– is development that meets the needs of the presentis development that meets the needs of the present

without compromising the ability of future generations towithout compromising the ability of future generations tomeet their own needsmeet their own needs

–– is focused on long term objectivesis focused on long term objectives

•• Sustainable development integrates economic, socialSustainable development integrates economic, socialand environmental objectivesand environmental objectives–– PeoplePeople are at the centre of sustainableare at the centre of sustainable

developmentdevelopment–– they are the AGENTS FOR CHANGEthey are the AGENTS FOR CHANGE

Brundtland Report 1987

Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable DevelopmentThe challenge facing the world today is not just aboutThe challenge facing the world today is not just aboutredistribution of resources to ensure greater levels of socialredistribution of resources to ensure greater levels of socialequity, but also to reorganise the extraction, use and disposal ofequity, but also to reorganise the extraction, use and disposal ofthose resources in order to ensure longer term survival of thethose resources in order to ensure longer term survival of theecosphere which sustains life. This great challenge poses threeecosphere which sustains life. This great challenge poses threekey questions:key questions:

•• What does sustainability and in particular, sustainableWhat does sustainability and in particular, sustainabledevelopment mean in a South African and Tourism context?development mean in a South African and Tourism context?

•• What is the relationship between inequality andWhat is the relationship between inequality and unsustainabilityunsustainability??

•• What are the relationships between human life and all life formsWhat are the relationships between human life and all life formsand how has this relationship evolved over time?and how has this relationship evolved over time?

55 most NB docs of our time:most NB docs of our time:

•• The Challenge of SlumsThe Challenge of Slums –– UN HabitatUN HabitatReportReport

•• 1998 Human Development Report1998 Human Development Report•• IntergovernmentalIntergovernmental Panel on ClimatePanel on Climate

ChangeChange•• MillenniumMillennium Ecosystem AssessmentEcosystem Assessment•• OilOil Depletion Analysis Centre reports onDepletion Analysis Centre reports on

OilOil PeakPeakSeries of slides taken frompaper by Swilling, M. 2007

•• Approximately half the world’s population is now urbanApproximately half the world’s population is now urban•• Urban areas are gaining an estimated 60 million people a yearUrban areas are gaining an estimated 60 million people a year–– over a million a weekover a million a week

•• Most of the increase in urbanization will occur in lessMost of the increase in urbanization will occur in lessdeveloped countriesdeveloped countries

Urbanization

Swilling, M. 2007

Future Urbanization

60% of the world’s people will be urbanites60% of the world’s people will be urbanites

Most of the urbanization that will exist in 2030 has notMost of the urbanization that will exist in 2030 has notyet occurred. Urban pop. of developing nations willyet occurred. Urban pop. of developing nations willdouble by 2030 at which timedouble by 2030 at which time…

Source: York Times Almanac 2004Swilling, M. 2007

PLANET OF SLUMS

one billionpeople worldwide

live in slumsOne third of the total urban population!

6% of urban pop in developed countries live in slums 78% ofurban pop in the least developed

countries live in slums

The Challenge of Slums –UN-HABITAT Report Kabira, Nairobi

Swilling, M. 2007

1998 Human Development1998 Human DevelopmentReportReport

Richest 20% of the worldRichest 20% of the world::•• account for 86% of totalaccount for 86% of total consumption expenditureconsumption expenditure,,

the poorest 20% account for 1.3%the poorest 20% account for 1.3%…..….. and consume:and consume:•• 45% of all meat and fish, the poorest fifth 5%;45% of all meat and fish, the poorest fifth 5%;•• 58% of total energy, the poorest fifth less than 4%58% of total energy, the poorest fifth less than 4%•• 74% of all telephone lines, the poorest fifth 1.5%74% of all telephone lines, the poorest fifth 1.5%•• 84% of all paper, the poorest fifth 1.1%84% of all paper, the poorest fifth 1.1%•• 84% of the world’s vehicles, the poorest fifth less84% of the world’s vehicles, the poorest fifth less

than 1%than 1%

Swilling, M. 2007

Global Poverty TrendsGlobal Poverty Trends

Global WarmingGlobal Warming

Global WarmingGlobal Warming

Picture: New Scientist, 2006

Responses to ClimateResponses to ClimateChangeChange

Stern ReportStern Report““Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people aroundClimate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around

the worldthe world –– access to water, food production, health, and theaccess to water, food production, health, and theenvironment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger,environment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger,water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms.water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms.

Using results from formal economic models, the Review estimates that ifUsing results from formal economic models, the Review estimates that ifwe don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will bewe don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will beequivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now andequivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now andforever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account,forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account,the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more.the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more.

In contrast, the costs of actionIn contrast, the costs of action –– reducing greenreducing green--house gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts ofhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts ofclimate changeclimate change –– can be limited to around 1% ofcan be limited to around 1% ofglobal GDP each year.global GDP each year. ……

DurbanvillCape Town 2100 - Raise in Seawater Levels of 15mCape Town 2010 - Current Seawater Levels

Peninsula Island

Table Island

Sir Lowry’s Bay

Hawston Bay

Helderberg Punt

Stellenbergbaai

Klapmunts CoveDurbanville Bay

Carbon Emissions, 1800Carbon Emissions, 1800--20002000

Swilling, M. 2007

Colin Campbell PredictionColin Campbell Prediction(Oil(Oil Depletion Analysis Centre,Depletion Analysis Centre, http://www.oilpeak.nethttp://www.oilpeak.net ))

OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS2004 Scenario

US-48

Europe

Russia

Other

M.East

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1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bill

ion

Bar

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a y

ear (

Gb/

a)

US-48 Europe Russia Other M.East Heavy etc. Deepwater Polar NGL

If Saudi Arabia haspeaked, the worldhas peaked

Swilling, M. 2007

http://www.oilpeak.net

http://www.oilpeak.net

Oil PriceOil PriceOil Price

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Bre

nt C

rude

$/b

$ 70 per Barrel- June 2007

Swilling, M. 2007

Millenium EcoMillenium Eco--AssessmentAssessment1360 experts from 95 countries1360 experts from 95 countries

•• 60% (15 out of 24) of the ecosystems60% (15 out of 24) of the ecosystemsexamined are being degraded or usedexamined are being degraded or usedunsustainably, including fresh water,unsustainably, including fresh water,capture fisheries, air and watercapture fisheries, air and waterpurification, and the regulation of regionalpurification, and the regulation of regionaland local climate, natural hazards andand local climate, natural hazards andpests. Costs of unsustainable resource usepests. Costs of unsustainable resource useare rising, but get displaced from oneare rising, but get displaced from onegroup to another (in particular the poor)group to another (in particular the poor)and to future generations.and to future generations.

Swilling, M. 2007

Millenium EcoMillenium Eco--AssessmentAssessment•• “The consumption of ecosystem services, which“The consumption of ecosystem services, which

is unsustainable in many cases, will continue tois unsustainable in many cases, will continue togrow as a consequence of a likely threegrow as a consequence of a likely three-- to sixto six--fold increase in global GDP by 2050 even whilefold increase in global GDP by 2050 even whileglobal population growth is expected to slowglobal population growth is expected to slowand level off in midand level off in mid--century. … An effective setcentury. … An effective setof responses to ensure the sustainableof responses to ensure the sustainablemanagement of ecosystems requires substantialmanagement of ecosystems requires substantialchanges in institutions and governance,changes in institutions and governance,economic policies and incentives, social andeconomic policies and incentives, social andbehaviour factors, technology, and knowledge.”behaviour factors, technology, and knowledge.”(p.17)(p.17)

Swilling, M. 2007

Deforestation

50% of the forests that originally covered the Earth havebeen cleared - 36 million acres are destroyed each year

Source: World Resources InstituteSwilling, M. 2007

Desertification

Desertification threatens the livelihoodof over 1 billion people in more than 110 countries

Source: United NationsSwilling, M. 2007

Loss of Biodiversity

More than 11,000 speciesMore than 11,000 speciesof animals and plants areof animals and plants areknown to be threatenedknown to be threatenedwith extinctionwith extinction ––

a rate unmatched fora rate unmatched for65 million years65 million years

Source: Population Reference BureauSwilling, M. 2007

Species DistributionSpecies Distribution

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Species Distribution

Species

Dependence andDependence andvulnerabilityvulnerability

(WRI 2002(WRI 2002--2004)2004)

•• Annual value of global agriculturalAnnual value of global agriculturalproduction = $1.3 trillionproduction = $1.3 trillion

•• Percentage of global agriculturalPercentage of global agriculturallands showing soil degradation =lands showing soil degradation =65%65%

•• No.No. of people directly dependent on forestsof people directly dependent on forestsfor survival = 350 millionfor survival = 350 million

•• Decline in global forest cover sinceDecline in global forest cover sinceprepre--agricultural times = 50%agricultural times = 50%

Swilling, M. 2007

Dependence andDependence andvulnerabilityvulnerability

(WRI 2002(WRI 2002--2004)2004)

•• No. of people dependent primarily on fishNo. of people dependent primarily on fishfor protein = 1 billionfor protein = 1 billion

•• % of global fisheries overfished or% of global fisheries overfished orfished at their biological limit = 75%fished at their biological limit = 75%

•• % of world population living in water% of world population living in water--stressed river basins = 41%stressed river basins = 41%

•• 20% of normal global river flow20% of normal global river flowextracted for human use & 60% ofextracted for human use & 60% ofmajor river basins are strongly ormajor river basins are strongly ormoderately fragmented by damsmoderately fragmented by dams

Swilling, M. 2007

This hypothesis became robust as aThis hypothesis became robust as aconsequence of a number of country studies:consequence of a number of country studies:

THRESHOLD HYPOTHESIS :THRESHOLD HYPOTHESIS :

For every society there seems to be a period inwhich economic growth –conventionallyunderstood and measured- brings about animprovement in the quality of life, but only upto a point - the threshold point- beyondwhich, if there is more economic growth, qualityof life may begin to deteriorate (M Max-Neef)

GROWTH IS NOT EQUIVALENT TO DEVELOPMENTGROWTH IS NOT EQUIVALENT TO DEVELOPMENT

Economic Gravity Shifts toEconomic Gravity Shifts toAsiaAsia

0

10,000

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

BRICsG6

2025: BRICseconomiesover half as

large as the G6

By 2040:BRICS

overtakethe G6

BRICs Have a Larger US$GDP Than the G6in Less Than 40 Years

GDP(2003 US$bn)

GS BRICs Model Projections.

The Largest Economies in 2050

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Ch US In Jpn Br Russ UK Ger Fr It

GDP(2003 US$bn)

GS BRICs Model Projections.

Making sense of it all….Making sense of it all….

………….from footprinting……….………….from footprinting……….

………to sustainability………to sustainability

FootprintingFootprinting

Rees and Wackernagel, 1995

Ecological FootprintEcological Footprint

WWF Living Planet Report, 2006

Ecological Footprint ScenariosEcological Footprint Scenarios


Big Ticket Items…Big Ticket Items…

•• EnergyEnergy•• WaterWater•• SanitationSanitation•• Solid wasteSolid waste•• TransportationTransportation –– infrastructure, vehicles,infrastructure, vehicles,

fuelsfuels•• Building materialsBuilding materials•• Land useLand use

Consumption RealityConsumption Reality


FootprintingFootprinting

Rees and Wackernagel, 1995

“Dematerialisation”“Dematerialisation”

SA: 1994-2004?

Longer term costingLonger term costing

Tazz Smart

Price 75 000.00 120 000.00Difference 60%l/100km 9 5.5kms traveled 180 000 180 000Total Fuel Cost 113 400.00 69 300.00Service Costs 12 000.00 4 666.67Running Costs 5 400.00 6 000.00

5 Year Cost 205 800.00 199 966.67

Difference -3% 7

Longer term costingLonger term costing

Tazz Smart

Price 75 000.00 120 000.00Difference 60%l/100km 9 5.5kms traveled 180 000 180 000Total Fuel Cost 145 800.00 89 100.00Service Costs 12 000.00 4 666.67Running Costs 5 400.00 6 000.00

5 Year Cost 238 200.00 219 766.67

Difference -8% 9

Picture: New Scientist, 2006

The New LanguageThe New Language

Where to next forWhere to next forTourism?Tourism?

Tourism EconomyTourism Economy

Manpower

Salaries

Suppliers

Profits

Only aspect not being correctly accounted foris that of resources!!

CapitalResources

Tourism Supply ChainTourism Supply Chain

Tools & Tips 2005

Supply Chain SurveySupply Chain SurveyEmploy Equity Total BEE/E Aff. Procure HR Practice Labour Compl. BCEA CSI H&S Compl. Eco Issues

60.34% 33.82% 18.13% 73.24% 84.58% 64.34% 12.08% 43.31% 15.91%

Supplier Total

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Employ Equity

Total BEE/E

Aff. Procure

HR Practice

Labour Compl.BCEA

CSI

H&S Compl.

Eco Issues

Supplier Score

Spier Supply Chain Survey, 2006

Evolution of Corp. ChangeEvolution of Corp. Change

1. Minimalist

- Basic Stakeholder Support- Addressing aspects that are generallyHR orientated

- Tokenistic

2. Philanthropic- Project specific- Related to Specific issues relevantto the particular organisation

- Donations and gifts- Seeks to change

3. Encompassing- Looks beyond the immediate businessstakeholder group to broadercommunity

- Embedded in company values andmanagement style

- Seeks to lead change

4. Social Activist

- Approach is the foundation of thebusiness

- Business is a catalyst for change- Seeks to effect change on others

Table adapted from text in Locke, 2003.Adapted from Locke, 2003

Should Tourism BusinessesShould Tourism BusinessesRespond?Respond?

•• No … “Big Science” will find the solutionNo … “Big Science” will find the solution•• No … Government will provide the policyNo … Government will provide the policy

framework and we will work to thatframework and we will work to that•• No … we cant afford to changeNo … we cant afford to change•• No … we will loose our market positions ifNo … we will loose our market positions if

we focus on items which are not corewe focus on items which are not core•• No … it is contrary to good businessNo … it is contrary to good business

principles, this is a fad, it will passprinciples, this is a fad, it will pass

Should Tourism BusinessesShould Tourism BusinessesRespond?Respond?

•• Yes … “Big Science” may find the solutionYes … “Big Science” may find the solutionbut at a cost!but at a cost!

•• Yes … Government may provide the policyYes … Government may provide the policybut will our clients accept this?but will our clients accept this?

•• Yes … we cant affordYes … we cant afford notnot to changeto change•• Yes … we will loose our market positions ifYes … we will loose our market positions if

we do not shift our focuswe do not shift our focus•• Yes … we need to seek out the newYes … we need to seek out the new

business principle or get left behindbusiness principle or get left behind

A few of key principlesA few of key principles

•• What you do not measure, you cannotWhat you do not measure, you cannotchangechange

•• Always seek out the business case for aAlways seek out the business case for ashiftshift

•• Think longer term, beyond that currentThink longer term, beyond that currentbudget cyclebudget cycle

•• Consider partnerships and seek out thoseConsider partnerships and seek out thosebusinesses grappling with similar issuesbusinesses grappling with similar issues

The business caseThe business case

There is a social case for enhancing theThere is a social case for enhancing thedevelopment impact of business.development impact of business.

•• Business remains business, but marginalBusiness remains business, but marginalchange of a massive sector could bechange of a massive sector could besignificant.significant.

Corporate Citizens?Corporate Citizens?“In South Africa, critical issues posing sever threats to“In South Africa, critical issues posing sever threats to

development such as HIV/Aids, land redistribution,development such as HIV/Aids, land redistribution,government capacity to manage development processes,government capacity to manage development processes,housing, access to credit and education underlies thehousing, access to credit and education underlies thereality that undertaking business in Southern Africareality that undertaking business in Southern Africademands a new approach to social responsibility. Thedemands a new approach to social responsibility. Thetraditional idea that a philanthropic business foundation, ortraditional idea that a philanthropic business foundation, oreven joint business approaches to development througheven joint business approaches to development throughlarge collective donations, will suffice as a developmentlarge collective donations, will suffice as a developmentstrategy, is rapidly becoming displaced. Corporatestrategy, is rapidly becoming displaced. CorporateCitizenship is about the integration of strategies into theCitizenship is about the integration of strategies into thecore business in a way that compliments national and civilcore business in a way that compliments national and civilsociety development agendas, while adding valuesociety development agendas, while adding valuesimultaneously to shareholders and stakeholders.”simultaneously to shareholders and stakeholders.”

African Institute for Corporate Citizenship

A business case for changeA business case for change

•• Social license to operateSocial license to operate•• Enhanced corporate governance and staff moraleEnhanced corporate governance and staff morale•• Customer satisfaction and market appealCustomer satisfaction and market appeal•• Government procurement, preferred partner,Government procurement, preferred partner,

recognitionrecognition•• Enhancement of brand and unique selling pointEnhancement of brand and unique selling point•• Access to responsible financingAccess to responsible financing•• Minimisation of riskMinimisation of risk•• Keeping regulation at bayKeeping regulation at bay•• Saving costsSaving costs

Tools & Tips 2005

Business Case for EDBusiness Case for EDLaundry 1 ED Laundry Saving

Dec 45 000 25 000Jan 45 000 25 000Feb 45 000 25 000Mar 45 000 25 000Apr 45 000 25 000May 35 000 22 000Jun 30 000 17 000Jul 32 000 19 000Aug 30 000 17 000Sep 35 000 19 000Oct 40 000 24 000Nov 45 000 27 000

472 000 270 000 202 000Set Up 75 000Sundry 10 000

Total Cost 472 000 355 000 117 000Jobs 2 7 5

Salary 1 700 2 000Months 12 12

Com Flow 40 800 168 000 127 200

Sustainability PrinciplesSustainability Principles•• Sense of Justice:Sense of Justice:

–– meeting fundamental human needs (subsistence, protection, affection,meeting fundamental human needs (subsistence, protection, affection,understanding, participation, idleness, creativity, identity and freedom)understanding, participation, idleness, creativity, identity and freedom)with appropriate satisfierswith appropriate satisfiers

–– rightsrights--based democratic governance and participationbased democratic governance and participation•• Sense of Limits:Sense of Limits:

–– transition to renewable energy alternatives and energy efficiencytransition to renewable energy alternatives and energy efficiency–– zero waste via rezero waste via re--use of waste outputs as productive inputsuse of waste outputs as productive inputs–– connectivity via sustainable transport, with a major focus on publicconnectivity via sustainable transport, with a major focus on public

transporttransport–– home building, sustainable construction materials and building methodshome building, sustainable construction materials and building methods–– sustainable water use and resustainable water use and re--use of treated sewerageuse of treated sewerage

•• Sense of Place:Sense of Place:–– health, wellhealth, well--being and soulfulnessbeing and soulfulness–– safe places within integrated communities (with special reference tosafe places within integrated communities (with special reference to

children and women)children and women)

DBSA/Sustainability Institute,2006

Sustainability PrinciplesSustainability Principles•• Sense of History:Sense of History:

–– valuing cultural diversity, sense of community, participatoryvaluing cultural diversity, sense of community, participatoryculture, healing and memoryculture, healing and memory

•• Sense of Craft:Sense of Craft:–– growing the local economy, greater equity and fair tradegrowing the local economy, greater equity and fair trade–– local and sustainable food supplies, markets, & agricultural valuelocal and sustainable food supplies, markets, & agricultural value

chains (especially organic food)chains (especially organic food)–– human skills, knowledge development and continuous learninghuman skills, knowledge development and continuous learning

•• Sense of Nature:Sense of Nature:–– reverence for life, enhancing biodiversity and the preservation ofreverence for life, enhancing biodiversity and the preservation of

natural habitatsnatural habitats–– working with rather than against ecoworking with rather than against eco--systemssystems

DBSA/Sustainability Institute,2006