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Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, Group VP Telecom

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Page 1: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

Future Technology Trends For the

Ultra Broadband Era

Mark Winther, Group VP Telecom

Page 2: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

• Broadband, Speed, Traffic Flows, Experience

• OTT engagement model

• Technology Futures – Access, Video, Optronics, Virtualization

• Future broadband challenges

Agenda

Page 3: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

Broadband Connections Pass 1 billion in 2016

WW Fixed Broadband Connections (millions) Drivers • Multi-screen

• High definition++

• Online gaming

• OTT/IP TV

• User-generated content

Enablers • Video futures

• Photonic chip futures

• Network virtualization

728 805

882 950 1015 1074

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: IDC Worldwide Telecom Services Database, July 2013.

Page 4: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

Speed Matters – 100 Mb/s is the New 10 Mbp/s

• Speed upgrades at no extra charge.

• Synchronous services that match upload speeds with download speeds at no extra charge.

• Solid ARPU driven by uptake of multi-play and TV services

From 3 Mb

6 Mb

12 Mb

15 Mb

30 Mb

50 Mb

100 Mb

To 20 Mb

50 Mb

100 Mb

200 Mb

300 Mb

500 Mb

1 Gb

1 Tb

Page 5: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

Changing Traffic Patterns

Cloud & social are pushing more content UP the network

All Internet sharing starts with uploading

Smarter home gateways drive more content being moved around

Enhanced Media Servers

Multiple tuners, terabytes of storage

Page 6: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

What Happens When 50B Machines Connect

Dramatically broad range of traffic patterns Challenge traffic engineering and management

Demand new service definitions (SLAs)

Smart Watch Chatty, Low bandwidth

Smart Train Session-based

Enormous bandwidth

Page 7: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

Ultra BB is More than a Build & Sales

Property Management Network Marketing Distribution Product

• Create fiber-ready buildings & neighbor-hoods

• Relations with property mngrs

• Community relationships

Incorporate intelligence into build planning

Lower cost equipment

External deployment

Target tenants & property owners

Build brand equity for fiber ready areas

Create fiber brand elements for SMB

New seller tools to target neighbor-hoods & buildings

Service delivery links for process improvement

Competitive priced E2E fiber services

Lower cost/lower SLA services

Consumer-like experience for SMB.

It is a transformation of the way to build and sell

Page 8: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

Customer Experience

• Better segmentation – continuum of needs

• How do you know when Facebook goes down? – Fundamental flaw in managing customer experience.

– How do you monitor to know you have a problem, and how do you respond when a customer does have a problem?

• Digital first experience – Self-service portals for subscriber self-monitoring

– Embracing sophisticated users

Passive User Non-use of video streaming services and/or downloads

Power User Frequent use of video streaming

services and/or downloads

Page 9: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

OTT Engagement Model

Fat Dumb Pipe

Standard business model – ‘owning’ the customer, providing the infrastructure. Little value-added beyond speed. Demand grows faster than revenue.

Smart Pipe

Evolved brokerage model -- Add value to subscriber and to OTT provider. Monetization through: policy control, billing, subscriber and network intelligence, CDNs, APIs.

Page 10: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

OTT Participation Model

• TV Everywhere

• TV/web interaction

• Open platform for service mash-up

Page 11: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

Access Technologies Trends

• FTTH speeds are impressive, but expensive • Objectives

– Prolong the copper lifecycle • Integration of copper, fiber, wireless • Optimize DSL and copper in rural areas

– Targeted fiber rollout • Transition from DSL to fiber in densely populated

“fiber-hoods” • FTTdp and FTTB can be 30% cheaper than FTTH

– Wireless local loop • Economically extend the reach

FTTB

CO

CO

Fiber

FTTC/N Street Cabinet

Copper

FTTdp Fiber

Copper/VDSL CO

Emergence of Mixed Economies, Multi-Access Network

CO Fiber

Wireless Local Loop CO

Page 12: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

Video Futures – A Better Visual Experience Data will increase by 65x in next few years

• 4K UHDTV = 4 times the bandwidth of a HD signal

• 8K UHDTV = 16 times the bandwidth of a HD signal

4K HD SD

8K

“4K/8K will be the first format that is Internet only.” -Reed Hastings, Netflix

Page 13: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

Photonic Chip Futures - Towards 1 Tb/s

Electrical Elements… Photonic Elements..

Cost

Greener Density

Power Size

• Multiple photonic components integrated onto a single chip, similar to the electronic integrated circuit.

• Benefits of photonic integration are higher density, lower power, less space and lower TCO.

• Improves network efficiency as we evolve to higher bit rates.

Page 14: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

Network Futures - Virtualization

Real things

Multi-vendor interconnect.

Failover and resiliency in software.

Quick failure service designs.

User controls,

Role and extent of orchestration,

SDN interconnect,

Virtual CPE,

APIs are difficult to use.

Benefits

Operators are committed

DT TeraStream

Telefonica UNICA

AT&T Domain 2.0

Many others…

It is not about 100% or nothing

The Programmable Network increases agility, reduces costs and speeds innovation applications.

Page 15: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators

Future Broadband Challenges

• Vastly diverse use cases – Videos and social feeds = speed, – Applications & devices = reliability.

• Demand more ‘atomic’ tools – Monitoring, – Understanding bandwidth usage, – Smart congestion management, – Software-defined networks, – Big data.

Page 16: Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era · 2014-12-12 · Future Technology Trends For the Ultra Broadband Era Mark Winther, ... SDN interconnect, ... Benefits Operators