future talent in a global context

42
“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”. David Arkless Senior Vice-President, Global Corporate Affairs Now…. …Next

Upload: nirmala-last

Post on 28-Nov-2014

1.723 views

Category:

Education


2 download

DESCRIPTION

 

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Future Talent In A Global Context

“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

David Arkless

Senior Vice-President, Global Corporate Affairs

Now….

…Next

Page 2: Future Talent In A Global Context

2“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

• Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the employment services industry.

• A $21 billion company, 85 percent of revenue from outside of the US.

• Permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment and selection; training; outplacement; outsourcing and consulting.

• 4,500 offices in 78 countries and territories.

• 400,000 clients per year.

• 4.4 million placed in permanent, temporary and contract positions in 2006.

Page 3: Future Talent In A Global Context

3“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

• Developing countries getting better in the game of globalization.

– Annual GDP growth averaging:

– 3% in 1980-90

– 4% in 1990-2000

– 5.7% in 2000-07

– Close to 8% forecasted for 2005-08

Page 4: Future Talent In A Global Context

4“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

• Developing countries getting better in the game of globalization.– Annual GDP growth

averaging:

– 3% in 1980-90

– 4% in 1990-2000

– 5.7% in 2000-07

– Close to 8% forecasted for 2005-08

– and their share of trade is growing:

– 22% in 1980

– 32% in 2005

– 45% in 2030 projected

Page 5: Future Talent In A Global Context

5“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Raw Material Prices

• The world is adjusting to realities of globalization.– Paying more for raw

materials, since 2000.

– Energy prices have three-folded.

– Industrial raw materials have more than doubled.

– Foodstuff is about 1.5 times more expensive.

Page 6: Future Talent In A Global Context

6“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Ca

rbo

n f

rom

fo

ss

il f

ue

l, B

illi

on

to

ns

1860 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060

• The world is adjusting to realities of globalization

– Paying more for raw materials, since 2000

– Energy prices have three-folded

– Industrial raw materials have more than doubled

– Foodstuff is about 1.5 times more expensive

– Reacting to increased loads on the environment

– About 700 multilateral agreements

– Global carbon markets valued at € 22.5 Billion in 2006

Page 7: Future Talent In A Global Context

7“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

• The global economy created 40M formal sector jobs in 2006– China 10M

– EU 3.5M

– US 2M

• Employment intentions vary.– Employers in Asia and the

Americas are the most upbeat

– European employers are more careful

– 10-15% of European employers plan to increase staff

– 75-85% plan no changes0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Fr anceNether lands

BelgiumGer many

ItalyAustr iaSwedenUnited

Ir elandSwitzer land

SpainNor way

Costa RicaHong Kong

ChinaT aiwan

United StatesCanadaMexico

IndiaSouth Af r icaNew Zealand

Ar gentinaAustr al ia

J apanP er u

Singapor e

IncreaseDecreaseNo changeDon’t know

FranceNetherl

Belgium

ItalyGermany

Austria

UKSweden

Ireland

NorwayCosta R

TaiwanChina

Hong K

USCanadaMexico

India

N ZealandS Africa

AustraliaArgentina

JapanPeru

Singapore

SwitzerlSpain

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Employers’ hiring intentions, 2q 2007

Source: Manpower Inc.

Page 8: Future Talent In A Global Context

8“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Manpower Professional Survey 2006

Of 32,000 employers surveyed in 26 countries and territories,

29% said they would have hired more professional staff if

candidates had had the necessary skills.

33% of employers in India said they would have hired more permanent professional staff

if they could have found candidates with the right skills.

Page 9: Future Talent In A Global Context

9“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

1. Skilled Manual Trades.2. Sales Representatives.3. Technicians.4. Engineers.5. Management/Executives.6. Laborers.7. Administrative positions.8. Drivers.9. Accounting & Finance staff.10. Machinists/Machine Operators.

Total Number of Respondents: 42,585Employers indicating difficulty filling positions: 31%Employers indicating no difficulty filling positions: 69%Margin of error: +/- 3.9%

GLOBAL

2008 Manpower Talent Shortage Survey

31 % of employers worldwide are

having difficulty filling positions due to the lack of suitable talent available

Page 10: Future Talent In A Global Context

10“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

1. Technicians.2. Sales Representative.3. Management/Executives.4. Sales Managers.5. Machinists/Machine operators.6. Engineers.7. Production Operators.8. Skilled Manual Trades.9. Laborers.10. Restaurant & Hotel Staff.

Total Number of Respondents: 3,900Employers indicating difficulty filling positions: 15%Employers indicating no difficulty filling positions: 85%Margin of error: +/- 1.6%

CHINA

2008 Manpower Talent Shortage Survey

15% of employers in China are

having difficulty filling positions due to the lack of suitable talent available

Page 11: Future Talent In A Global Context

11“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

1. Technicians.2. Engineers.3. Skilled Manual Trades.4. Administrative Staff.5. IT Staff.6. Laborers.7. Production Operators.8. Machinists/machine Operators.9. Management/Executives.10. Mechanics.

1. Technicians. 2. Engineers.3. Receptionists.4. Laborers.5. Sales Managers.6. Drivers. 7. Skilled Manual Trades.8. Mechanics.9. Management/Executives.10. Accounting & Finance Staff.

Costa Rica Argentina

Source: 2008 Manpower Talent Shortage Survey

2008 Manpower Talent Shortage Survey

LATAM: Employers having the most difficulty finding the right people to fill jobs are those in Costa Rica (34%) and Argentina (36%)

Page 12: Future Talent In A Global Context

12“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

WHAT’S DRIVING THE TALENT SHORTAGE?

Page 13: Future Talent In A Global Context

13“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

• Productivity, services and jobs.– for every

manufacturing job lost, ten service jobs have been added.

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Health

Business services

Educational

Metal

Apparel

Textiles

1960

2002

Number of non-farm jobs, US

thousands

Source:Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY,12.12.2002

Page 14: Future Talent In A Global Context

14“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Theoretical offshoring potential

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

DistributionHotel functions

NursingCustomer-facing

Patient care provisionActuarial

Other prof.health servicesMerchandising

SalesSupply chain mgmt

MarketingProcurementUnderwriting

ClaimsG&A

R&D/prod.developmentBack office

Customer service/supportInternal IT

InvestmentCall centre

Source: McKinsey Global Institute

• Productivity, services and jobs.– for every manufacturing job lost, ten service jobs have been added.

• 1.46 billion service jobs worldwide.– 160 million could theoretically be offshored.

– Estimated to reach 4.1 million in 2008.

% of jobs

Page 15: Future Talent In A Global Context

15“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

“As companies shift more sophisticated activities to these (low-cost emerging) markets, they are fighting over a much smaller pool of highly skilled workers to staff these operations. As a result, both labor costs and turnover among highly skilled workers are increasing rapidly, making retention ever more difficult.”

Source: Innovation in Emerging Markets: 2007 Annual Study.Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, January 2007

Image source: Getty images

Economic Development

Page 16: Future Talent In A Global Context

16“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

US APPAREL IMPORTS 1989-2006 (% OF TOTAL APPAREL IMPORTS IN THE US)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

China Mexico Vietnam Cambodia

Source: OTEXA data

Cambodia

Vietnam

Mexico

China

• Also developing countries experience job offshoring.– Whilst Mexico lost 7% of

its share of US apparel imports.

– …China gained 19%.

– …and Cambodia and Vietnam entered the game.

Page 17: Future Talent In A Global Context

17“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

• Emerging markets face a huge skill gap in moving into higher value services– 13% of university

graduates meet expectations of global business

• High staff turnover rates– Those with skills are in

high demand

• …and wages are rapidly pushed up– Up more than 20% per

year in India’s software industry

Page 18: Future Talent In A Global Context

18“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

China

• 3.1 m university graduates per year (2005)

• Young professionals with 7 years of working experience, 8.5 m (2003), incl. 1.6 m engineers

• 600’000 engineering graduates per year

• Only 1 out of 10 suitable to work at a multinational firm

• Young engineers who would today qualify for work at a multinational company: 160’000

• 75,000 leaders who can work in global environments will be needed

– in 2005 they had only 3,000 to 5,000.

India

• Approximately 3m university graduates per year

• Pool of university graduates: 22m (2003)

• Only 25% of engineering graduates and 10-15% of other university graduates are suitable for work in the IT sector

– Possible labour deficit (IT sector): 500’000 in 2010

– Turnover rate: 40%

– Wage inflation: 20-25%

• Unemployment rate of university graduates: 17.2%

– Possibly up to 40% of all university graduates are not productively employed

Fast growing economies with huge labour pools developing rapidly intohigh end of the services market – with huge labour pools but wrong skills

*Source: Deutsche Bank; Tamara Trinh, Alpbach, Aug 30, 2006 McKinsey Global Institute

Page 19: Future Talent In A Global Context

19“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

• The number of university graduates will increase by 22 percent in 2006 to 4.1 million.

• The national literacy rate in China is 91 percent among people aged 15 and over.

• And workers now entering the labor force will have had a minimum of nine years’ compulsory schooling.

Is it really that bad in China?

Page 20: Future Talent In A Global Context

20“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

90 percent of the world’s top 500 multinationals have now invested in China but

for China to fuel its current growth levels, it needs to develop internally the same

level of talent in seven years that exists now in the UK and France.Image source: Getty images

Page 21: Future Talent In A Global Context

21“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

The Growing Pain – Talent Shortage

Source: 2004 survey, American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, along with six other Chambers of Commerce

Senior ManagersSevere shortage - 40% of employers indicate difficulty to fill Senior Manager positions.

More difficult and more expensive in future.

Mid-Level Managers

Growing candidate pool.

Demand outstrips supply.

Stiff competition among companies - may ease in 6-8 years.

Blue Collar WorkersEmerging shortage in supply over last 2 years.

Shortage mainly in coastal cities.

Rapidly increasing wages.

Entry Level

White Collar WorkersLarge candidate pool, still growing.

Flat wages due to fierce competition for jobs.

Page 22: Future Talent In A Global Context

22“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Fast growing economies with huge labour pools developing rapidly intohigh end of the services market – with huge labour pools but wrong skills

Offshoring will be a two way street – Jobs are going where people are •EU and US will become recipients

Labour markets will be truly global – People are going where jobs are •ICT makes global work organizations a reality

•Access to tacit knowledge frames how we work – technology will break the barriers

The global war for talent is getting tighter

Page 23: Future Talent In A Global Context

23“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Offshoring will be a two way street

• All the Bangalore tigers have set up development centres in China

• Indian companies have actively invested in all of Europe

• Infosys provides BPO and IT services to international clients from its facilities in the Czech Republic, London, Germany and Mauritius in more 20 languages

• Wipro operates under the Norwich Union brand in the UK

• Wipro’s Wireless Solutions Unit operates out of Finland

• TCS has moved its insurance outsourcing operations to the UK

Labour markets will be truly global

• India’s expanding aviation industry employs 350 pilots from the West

• Online customer service in India employs young Europeans recruited in their home countries

• Over 50Kexpatriates work in India

• Infosys gets 98% of our revenues from outside India

– employs 300 Americans – in India

– Large numbers fr UK planned in 2007

– 126 Americans from leading US universities in training at Infosys’ Mysore campus

• Finance workers unions from around the Asia-Pacific region and India are coordinating action

– against moving jobs to less regulated places

The global war for talent is getting tighter

early signs

Page 24: Future Talent In A Global Context

24“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

A declining workforce

162

164

166

168

170

172

174

176

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mil

lio

n

40

45

50

55

60

65

Mil

lio

n EU 15

Turkey

Source: Eurostat and UN Population Division

Page 25: Future Talent In A Global Context

25“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

An ageing and declining workforce

2007million

2016million

Increase/De-crease

France <34 15.6 15.2 -2.6%

35-54 17.1 14.2 -3.0%

>55 12.1 14.2 +17.5%

Germany <34 19.0 18.5 -2.6%

35-54 26.1 23.6 -9.4%

>55 19.0 20.0 +5.6%

Italy <34 13.7 11.8 -14.3%

35-54 17.8 18.2 +2.0%

>55 13.0 13.8 +6.0%

Spain <34 10.8 8.5 -21.8%

35-54 12.1 13.0 +8.1%

>55 8.1 9.1 +12.7%

UK <34 15.8 16.0 +1.8%

35-54 17.7 17.5 -1.2%

>55 12.3 14.0 +14.0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau/Caden Corp.

• European employers will be dealing with increasingly older staff; in the next 9 years:– France +17.5%

– UK +14.0%

– Spain +12.7%

• At the same time there will be less young people to chose from:– Spain -21.8%

– Italy -14.3%

• This is exacerbated by a declining indigenous workforce of about 4%.

Page 26: Future Talent In A Global Context

26“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

• The aging workforce conundrum is that the older employees who have the talent companies most need to retain are those who have the financial flexibility and employment options to retire or downshift to a more flexible work arrangement.

• Savvy employers will develop innovative ways of retaining these critically important contributors as long as possible.

26

Understanding and Engaging Older Workers

The key to older worker engagement is to focus on the same issues that are important to other age groups

Page 27: Future Talent In A Global Context

27“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Net immigration flows

Net emigration countries

Net immigration countries

annual average 95-00 Source: United Nations (2002)

Annual net number of migrants, 2005-2015 (‘000)

1,330

748

-329

-647

-1,194

N America

Europe

Africa

Latin America

Asia

Source: UN

UN definition of regions

Migration

Page 28: Future Talent In A Global Context

28“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Mexicans/Hispanics into the US.

East European Union workers to the UK.

Indians/Pakistanis into the UAE.

Pakistanis into Malaysia.

Anyone with skills into Singapore.

Koreans into Japan.

Polish into Germany.

Africans into Europe.

Migration

Page 29: Future Talent In A Global Context

29“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Global Competition

Image source: Getty images

The dynamic nature of society is making it more complex for employers to

manage their workforces, ensuring that they have the right skill sets

available, for the right jobs, at the right time.

Page 30: Future Talent In A Global Context

30“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Four-year degree

Isolated

Tailored programmesOne-size fits all

Global

Cost

Industrial Economy Knowledge Economy

The Knowledge Economy

Virtual learning communities

Forty-year degree

ROI

Local

Page 31: Future Talent In A Global Context

31“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

How to survive the Talent Crunch of tomorrow

• A talent shortage can be addressed by reducing the demand for talent or increasing the supply, or even both.

• This means reducing the number of jobs for which talent is in short supply and/or tapping into previously untapped potential in order to increase the total available pool of employable talent.

Page 32: Future Talent In A Global Context

32“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Winning in the Future of WorkReduce demand, increase supply

Page 33: Future Talent In A Global Context

33“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Optimizing Talent Flow

33

Page 34: Future Talent In A Global Context

34“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Joint responsibility for the future of education, skills and learning lies with:

Employers- To implement work training programs, equipping the workforce with ‘soft skills’

that are increasingly in demand in today’s flatter organizational structures.

Government

- To develop educational tools and systems to meet the needs of the knowledge economy and equip the workforce with core portable skills such as team work, problem solving, information computer technology skills etc.

Individuals

- Employees need to embrace lifelong learning. This involves an attitudinal shift.

Page 35: Future Talent In A Global Context

35“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

• Developing world will continue to claim its stake in the global economy.

– will be good for world GDP growth– will effect an inflation reduction on manufactured products

– more consumers coming on-stream

– increased demand for finite resources– upward pressure on energy, raw materials, foodstuff prices

Seven assertions – 1.

Page 36: Future Talent In A Global Context

36“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Seven assertions – 2.

• Pressures for labour market reform in Europe will continue to build up.– Its labour markets underperform compared to the US and Asia

– It loses global market share and forfeits economic growth opportunity

– The notion of security will build more on availability of jobs and access to new opportunities

– the longer and deeper Europe goes in the wrong direction, the more painful the reform is going to be

– the risk is real if the current positive trends are interpreted that no reforms are needed

Page 37: Future Talent In A Global Context

37“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Seven assertions – 3.

• The location of jobs that can be moved is continuously challenged.

– the mobile job market will continue to grow

– technology will continuously increase the offshoring potential of jobs

– developing countries continue to move to higher value services– huge need to overhaul skill systems

– the most important factor for location will be availability of skills– EU/US will become recipients of offshoring (if they have the right skills)

Page 38: Future Talent In A Global Context

38“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Seven assertions – 4.

• The jobs that cannot be moved will be subjected to three forces:– demographics and indigenously available labour to fill jobs

– upward cost pressure due to scarcity of labour supply

– application of technological developments – changing the nature of the job and the skill requirement for it

– immigration will mitigate upward cost pressures in labour markets

Page 39: Future Talent In A Global Context

39“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Seven assertions – 5.

• The practice of global work organizations will increase and change.– technological advances will break down barriers for tacit

interaction

– a more technology savvy new generation with greater tolerance for ICT shortcomings

– the way we look at team and people management will change– broader geographical boundaries of tacit interaction

– greater workforce diversity

Page 40: Future Talent In A Global Context

40“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Seven assertions – 6.

• Demography will force a rethinking of policies and regulations.– to ensure labour supply government policies will:

– encourage immigration– the rethinking process will start from addressing illegal immigration

– encourage longer working lives

– facilitate reconciling of private and professional lives

– governments will manage budgets– entitlements will be reduced

– companies will rethink talent strategies– older workers’ retention and recruitment strategies

– global mechanisms to access talent– talent retention – internal flexibility for multiple skills specific to one company

– access to talent – external flexibility for specific skills for multiple enterprises

Page 41: Future Talent In A Global Context

41“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

Seven assertions – 7.

Skill development systems need to respond to changing workforce demographics and the challenges of skill development, re-skilling and up-skilling.

Page 42: Future Talent In A Global Context

42“Future Talent in a Global Context – The Implications for Higher Education”.

May 24 2008Manpower

WHAT WILL YOU DO?www.manpower.com