future of social networks & open innovation
TRANSCRIPT
Tallinn, Estonia 14.11.2008
Dr. Sam InkinenSenior Consultant, Futurist
Dicole Ltd.
www.dicole.com - www.inkinen.org
Future of Social Networks & Open
Innovation The cultural requirements forWeb 2.0 powered innovation, networking, and collaboration
Artist: Lotta Viitaniemi, Story: Kim Forsman & Teemu Arina Ⓒ Dicole Ltd.
The Age of Agility:
When memories exceed dreams, the end is near. The hallmark of a truly successful organization is the willingness to abandon what made it successful and start fresh.
– Michael Hammer
Digitality is (all) over.
– Espen Aarseth
Changes on the web
WEB X.O
Source: Jimmy Maymann, The Social Metropolis (2008)
Source: Jimmy Maymann, The Social Metropolis (2008)
Source: Jimmy Maymann, The Social Metropolis (2008)
Web as a platform
Photo: Christopher Chan
“What happens when information becomes social and more than one billion internet users add their contributions and creativity to the media landscape?”
– Jimmy Maymann: The Social Metropolis (2008)
Software above a single device
Photo: *One*
Data as the new Intel inside
Photo: _fabrizio_
Photo: Donna Cymek
Harnessing collective intelligence
Rich Internet Applications (RIA, AJAX)
LBS Services, Context
Knowledge
Photo: ulterior epicure
Lightweight business models, e.g. SaaS
(Software as a Service)
Sale
s
Products
Head (20%)
Tail (80%)
Signal vs. noise Required filtering power
Ref: Chris Anderson
Long Tail
“The project wouldhave been a successif everything hadgone as we planned.”
“Everything would work out if we had the right information at the right time at the right place.”
Myth
Photo: Shapeshift
The integrated pattern of human knowledge, belief, and behavior that depends upon the capacity for learning and transmitting knowledge to succeeding generations.– Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary
Culture
1) Anonymous voting2) Open conversation3) Prediction markets4) Internet crowdsourcing
Ref: Cass R. Sunstein, Infotopia
Connecting Many Minds
Anonymous Voting
Examples• Kasparov vs. Internet team• Estimating temperature• “Ask audience” in Who
Wants to be a Millionaire• Movie ratings in IMDB• Youtube video ratings
Condorcet Jury Theorem
Why groups can be wise?
Marquis de Condorcet, 1743–94
1) Diversity of opinion2) Independence3) Decentralization4) Aggregation
Ref: James Surowiecki, Wisdom of the Crowds
WiseCrowds
Each of them by himself may not be of good quality; but when they all come together it is possible that they may surpass – collectively and as a body, although not individually – the quality of the few best.
– Aristotle on Collective Intelligence, Politics, circa 334–23 BC.
Conversation
• Groupthink and unthinking• Amplification of falsehoods• Strategic behavior• Use of heuristics• From confidence to extremism• Focus on personal prospects• Design by committee
Photo: Mike9Alive
Traps
Design by Committee
Photo: .supernova.
WeakSignals
Filters• Surveillance filter• Mentality filter• Power filter– Dr. Igor Ansoff, 1984
• Group polarization• Reputational cascades• Informational cascades• Hidden profiles• Social pressures• Common knowledge effects• Algorithmic bias (e.g. Google)
Biases
Diversity of Thought is Accuracy of Thought
1
Cow
2
Chicken
3
Grass
Ref: Richard Nisbett
What doesn’t fit in?
PredictionMarkets
1) Economic incentivesmotivate participation
2) Disclosing information iscrucial for winning
3) Those who do not know,will step aside
Ecosystem way: Internet
Crowdsourcing
Photo: Hugo*
■ An idea becomes an innovation only through wide adoption,either through:
■ centralized resources (traditional innovation)
■decentralized resources(open innovation)commons-based peer-production
What is Innovation?
How’s your innovation pipeline?
Photo: Pavlos Pavlidis
“Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought.” – Albert Szent-Györgyi (1893–1986, Nobel Laureate in Physiology)
Traditional Innovation
Photo: ippei + janine
Open & OrganicInnovation
What kind of innovation?
Source: Henry Chesbrough, 2007
Business modelinnovation
Product &service innovation
Closed OpenHow you innovate
Wha
t yo
u in
nova
te
Changingthe how
Cha
ngin
gth
e w
hat
Traditionalproduct
development
Challenge:ecosysteminnovation
Challenge:new ways
to capture value
Challenge:be an innovation partner of choice
Image: Felippe Torres
In the future, organizations will compete on:
Who is able to create a rich user community improving their products where users want to belong
Future Challenge
“There’s something fundamental about organizations and leadership that
makes it almost impossible for people inside a business to change their own
industry. Industries are based on formats that are basically legacies of
military hierarchies.”
Ricardo SemlerSemco
Kuva: GustavoG
“Virtually everything new seems to come from the 20 percent of their time
engineers here are expected to spend on side projects. They certainly don't come
out of the management team.”
Eric SchmidtGoogle CEO
Kuva: GustavoG
Ref: Bradley Horowitz, Jacob Nielsen
1% creators
100% consumers
10% synthesizers
Participation Inequality
LowThreshold
HighEngagement
Reading
Rating Tagging
Commenting
Subscribing
LinkingRecommending
ReflectingCollaborating
Moderating
Ownership
CollaborativeIntelligence
(explicit creation)
CollectiveIntelligence
(implicit creation)
Ref: Teemu Arina, based on Ross Mayfield
Participation Power Law
CASE
Winner of WorldSummit AwardFinland 2009in e-business &category
‣ See all
f r i e n d s
d e t a i l sp o r t r a i t
Teemu Arina
e m p l o y e r
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Itämerenkatu 30 A 10FI-00180 Helsinki, [email protected]: tarina.blogging.fiSkype: infe00Phone: +358 - 50 -555 7636
jaiku+ Add contact
CEO, founderDicole OyKansakoulukuja 3, 2 krs.FI-00100 Helsinki, Finland+358 - 50 - 555 7636
“All progress dependson the unreasonable man”
‣ Edit details
“ I seek to understand the changing nature of organizations as they shift from the industrial era to the knowledge intensive era. What new methods, structures, skills and tools will they need? As an entrepreneur, programmer, teacher and designer I design, build and deliver web-based interaction technology (or social software) that enables people to co-create together in a distributed knowledge intensive environment.”
Digitalizationgrade +10
e d u c a t i o n
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SchoolDegreeOther degreeTarget degree
Skill profileHSEBachelorKnowledge kung-fuEvil priest
“Technology is my sixth sense.”
c o m m u n i t y s t a t s
Last onlineSubmitted ideasCommentsPoints receivedRanking position
6 minutes ago3240542014.
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case Challenge Digitalizatione-banking e-invoicing eu idea
t a g s o f i n t e r e s t
Professional description
CASE
Dicole Innovation Work Environment
Blogs Wikis Networking
Seeds Media Feeds
Tags
Source: Jimmy Maymann, The Social Metropolis (2008)
Source: Jimmy Maymann, The Social Metropolis (2008)
Source: Jimmy Maymann, The Social Metropolis (2008)
Source: Jimmy Maymann, The Social Metropolis (2008)
Sour
ce:
Jimm
y M
aym
ann,
Th
e So
cial M
etro
polis
(20
08)
SkeletonAutomation, Real-
time processes, Operative
technologies – Back-bone for business processes
Ref: Teemu Arina, Illustration: Lotta Viitaniemi
SensesBlogs, Media –
Reflection in and on action
Nervous systemFeeds, Search, APIs –
Sharing, discovering and tapping into reflections
BrainWikis, tagging –
Connecting and remixing reflectons
Blood systemSocial networking,
Real-time communications,
Network analysis – Optimizing interaction flow
Organic Enterprise
Photo: tashland
Command & Control
should become
Collaboration and Communication
Contact
Company website: www.dicole.com
Dr. Sam InkinenSenior Consultant, FuturistDicole [email protected]
“Imagination is more important than knowledge.”– Albert Einstein
Mr. Teemu ArinaCEODicole [email protected]