future of manufacturing (epsrc)

The Future of Manufacturing

EPSRC Manufacturing the Future Conference - 23rd September

Sir Mark Walport, the Government’s Chief Scientific Advisor

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Manufacturing matters, now and for the future

Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output

• Absolute value: contribution to GDP of £139 billion in 2013

• Exports: 52% of UK exports in 2013 (£263 billion)

• R&D: 72-79% of total UK R&D spend 2001-2012

• Productivity: growth 4.6% p.a. (1980-2013), UK 3.1% p.a.

• Jobs: high skilled and well paid

• Resilience: supporting faster recovery from recession

Manufacturing is and must continue to be an essential part of the UK economy.

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The recent history of manufacturing in UK

Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output

• UK manufacturing is diverse

• Historical context

• Weak relative performance

• R&D expenditure

• Capital investment

• % global manufacturing exports

• Strong relative performance

• Productivity

• Export intensity

4Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output

Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30 th September 2013

Emerging market opportunities

• Emergence of BRICs and the ‘Next 11’

• Growing average buying power

• Continued global ‘fragmentation’ of the value chain

• Some ‘onshoring’ back to the UK

1950UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)

This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.

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30% Urban.

global pop.

Sustainability Challenge – Growing Urban population

1980

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UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)

40% Urban.

global pop.


2010

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52% Urban.

global pop.


2030

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61% Urban.

global pop.


2050

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72% Urban.

global pop.


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Sustainability Challenge – Climate Change

credit: Daily Mail

Credit: Adelaide Advertiser


Looking ahead to 2050:

A Circular Economy

These trends will lead to volatile commodity prices, necessitating a ‘circular economy’:

•Reuse,

•Remanufacturing,

•Recycling.


• Packaging of services with products e.g. Rolls Royce

• Selling of technological ‘know how’ e.g. ARM

• Remanufacturing of products e.g. JCB / Caterpillar

The Value Chain

Manufacturing is no longer just about ‘production’ – manufacturers will increasingly make use of a wider ‘value chain’ to create revenue.


More digital connections along value chains

Mass personalisation of low-cost products, on demand

Distributed production: super factories, local, home, mobile

Greater design freedom

Faster, more responsive and closer to customers

credit: stock photo credit: Mojo

credit: flightradar24.comcredit: Zaha Hadid Architects


Robotics

Improving operational efficiencies.

credit: KUKA Systems GmbH (CC BY-SA 3.0) credit: Universal Robots


The Internet of Things

Better energy management

The Internet of Things (IoT) has massive potential to revolutionise manufacturing:

credit: Measure My Energy



More connected supply chain

Source: Map for iPhone Glass


Looking ahead to 2050:


• To get the full benefits, the system will need to allow

• ‘thing-to-thing’ authentication

• Secure remote access

The Internet of Things (IoT) also exposes manufacturing to new challenges:

• Security

• Industrial espionage/sabotage

• Encryption needs to be proportionate to the risk

credit: Bloomberg/Getty

credit: stock photo



High Performance Computing

Enables highly complex designs to be engineered cheaper and manufactured quicker

credit: stock photo

credit: TED.comcredit: stock photo

19 The Age of Analytics, April 30th 2014

The Turing Institute

The Mission

1. To undertake research and knowledge sharing in the key disciplines of mathematics, computer and data science

2. To develop networks between leaders

3. To enable industry and academia to work together on research with practical applications

4. To provide advice to policy makers on the wider implications of research

5. To provide strategic oversight and leadership

The vision1. Promote the development

and use of advanced mathematics, computer science and algorithms for human benefit

2. Conduct first class research and development

3. It will be a world leading institute that will provide a fitting memorial to Alan Turing

credit: Duane Wessels (CC BY-SA-NC 2.0)



Advanced Materials

New materials, metals, super-alloys and composites which are able to withstand

•higher temperatures;

•greater pressures, and;

•higher radiation doses.

They are light and strong, and therefore more efficient.

credit: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

We need to utilise the whole of the Science

Landscape


Looking ahead to 2050:Increasingly dependent on highly skilled workers

• Strong demand for manufacturing workers – 800,000 jobs to fill in the years up to 2020.

• STEM skills will be vital for majority of these roles.

• However, due to the increasing ‘value chain’ people will need a blend of technical & commercial ‘hybrid’ skills


We will need to accommodate an older workforce

Looking ahead to 2050:Increasingly dependent on highly skilled workers

Human enhancement may support mental performance and physical mobility, helping counter the effect of ageing credit: Noonee


• Better intelligence - beyond measuring output from production

• Better targeting of support, using the wider policy system

• Enhancing capability in evaluating and coordinating policy

• Scaling up a number of existing initiatives

• EPSRC Foresight Fellowships

As manufacturing evolves, policy makers will need new approaches to ensure that the UK is a place where it thrives

What’s the role of Government?

Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through [email protected].

@uksciencechief

www.gov.uk/go-science

future of manufacturing (epsrc)

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