future of innovation 20120628 v2

© 2012 IBM Corporation

IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)

The Future of Innovation:Convergence & City-University Nodes

Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, [email protected] Champion and Director IBM UPward(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development)

Grassroots Innovation Program (hosted at EMC2)Santa Clara, CA USA, Thursday June 28, 2012

Alexandria/Egypt-Japan University of Science & Technology

IBM Centennial Icon of ProgressNano-Bio-Info-Cogno

mailto:[email protected]

2 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)

Today’s Talk: The Future of Innovation

Technologies: Convergence & Universal Machines– Ten years ago: NSF Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno(Social) 1.0

– This week: NSF NBIC(S) 2.0 = “Nib-Iks-Two-Oh”

– Universal Machines – Info-Nano-Bio-Cogno-Social

Rules: City-University Nodes & Learning Machines– Smarter Planet = Smarter Cities & Smarter Universities

– Infrastructure, Individuals, Institutions, Information

– Service Science studies Holistic Product-Service Systems

What’s important? Your story, your life story– Quality-of-Life = QoS + QoJ + QoO

• Richard Florida’s “Who’s Your City” ~SJO

– {Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience}

– Human capabilities (T-shaped adaptive people)


NBIC(S)2.0

Social

http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/1/NBIC_overview.pdf


Why Social? Look What’s New…

IBM title

Google & AppleMicrosoft

LinkedIn

Twitter

WordPress

HP, Oracle, SAP,EMC, Facebook,

Etc., etc.

Smarter PlanetWatson Jeopardy!

Cloud Computing, AnalyticsService Science Social BusinessCyberSecurity…

5

Accelerating Change 2004

http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

50 years: Information technology connecting islands of information (created by people) into larger networks

Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Scienceby Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)

0.00E+00

5.00E+16

1.00E+17

1.50E+17

2.00E+17

2.50E+17

3.00E+17

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

transistors

About 10 billion transistors made per second in 2004, doubling each 18 monthsWorldwide Production of Transistors on all ICs (Source: NSF)

Growth rates for:

Nano: Transistors made per second

Bio: Gene sequenced per second, Cell divisions observed per second,fMRI regions scanned per second

Info: Bytes storage made per second

Cogno: Emails per second, IM per second Google searchers per second

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Roco%2C%20Mihail%20C./103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Roco%2C%20Mihail%20C./103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Bainbridge%2C%20William%20Sims/103-3454405-6368663

6



200 year view: Service Dominant Logic

Nation % WW

Labor% A

%G

%S

25 yr %delta S

China 21.0 50 15 35 191

India 17.0 60 17 23 28

U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21

Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35

Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20

Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38

Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40

Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30

Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30

Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44

Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size(about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations)A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services

>50% (S) services, >33% (S) services

2004 2004United States

The largest labor force migrationin human history is underway,

driven by urbanization, global communications,

low cost labor, business growthand technology innovation.

(A) Agriculture:Value from

harvesting nature(G) Goods:

Value from making products

(S) Services:Value from enhancing the

capabilities of things (customizing, distributing, etc.) and interactions between things

7



Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (the hypothesis)

Collaborate(incentives)

Augment(tool)

Automate(self-service)

Delegate(outsource)

Tool SystemHuman System

Service provider helpsthe client by doing some

of it for them(in a custom way)

Service provider helpsthe client by doing all

of it for them(in a standard way)

The choice tochange work practicesrequires answeringfour key questions:

- Should we? (Business Value)- Can we? (Technology)- May we? (Governance)- Will we? (Work Priorities)

Incent People(Social systems with intentional agents)

Harness Nature(Technology systems with stochastic parts)

43

21

Z

Collaborate(1970)

Augment(1980)

Delegate(2000)

Automate(2010)

Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system

Example: Call Centers

Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computingby Thierry Bardini “Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement”

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Bardini%2C%20Thierry/103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Bardini%2C%20Thierry/103-3454405-6368663

8



Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ

FOXP2 and the Evolution of Language, by Alec MacAndrewhttp://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm

…Detective story from a family with slurred speech to genes that influence brain development and enable speech (Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics, embryogenesis, neurophysiology, anthropology, primate evolution, etc.)

“With enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow”

“With a large enough smart mob, all inferences are shallow”

Relationship oriented computing tools Amazon – Recommendation system

E-Bay – Reputation system

Google – Relevancy ranking

The Symbolic Species: The Co-Evolution of Language and the Brainby Terrence W. Deacon

The Cathedral & the Bazaar by Eric S. Raymond

Smart Mobsby Howard Rheingold

Open Innovationby Henry Chesbrough

http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Deacon%2C%20Terrence%20W./103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Eric%20S.%20Raymond/104-2997550-9638329

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Rheingold%2C%20Howard/104-2997550-9638329

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Chesbrough%2C%20Henry%20William/104-2997550-9638329

9



Collaborate (continued)

Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Softwareby Steven Johnson

Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Ageby Duncan J. Watts

Connectionsby James Burke

WorldBoard

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Johnson%2C%20Steven/104-2997550-9638329

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Watts%2C%20Duncan%20J./104-2997550-9638329

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Burke%2C%20James/104-2997550-9638329

10



Augment: Telerobotics

First transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds

Doctor: United States Patient: France

Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Usby Rodney Brooks “The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote-presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Rodney%20Brooks/103-3454405-6368663

11



Delegate: Outsourcing

60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of India

The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization

by Thomas L. Friedman

Development as Freedomby Amartya Sen

1998 Nobel PrizeWinner Economics

Measure freedom Measure money

http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Thomas%20L.%20Friedman/103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Amartya%20Sen/103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Amartya%20Sen/103-3454405-6368663

12



Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography)

“This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block, and then let the engine run for about 80 hours to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould

Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Toolingby S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham

BUILDING BONES. A rat's skull regenerates better with a new bone-promoting scaffold (left) than with a less-sophisticated scaffold (right).F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich

Printing Organs

Printing Teeth & Bone

Printing 3D GadgetsPrinting 3D Electronics

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Dimov%2C%20S.%20S./103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Dimov%2C%20S.%20S./103-3454405-6368663

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index=books&field-author=Pham%2C%20Duc%20Truon/103-3454405-6368663





Technologies: Convergence & Universal Machines

Info: Turing Machine

Nano & Meso: Self-Replicating Machine

Bio: CAD for Bacteria Machine

Cogno: Low-Energy Pattern Learning Machine


Info: Universal Machines (Done for Symbols)

Formalize Algorithm & Computation– Abstract “Automatic Machine”

– Universal Turing Machine (symbol processor)

Four (Conceptually) Simple Parts– Tape (cells with symbol)

– Head (moves to cell and read/write symbols)

– Register of State

– Table of Transitions

Three Simple Operations– Read & write a cell on a tape

– Move the head to a new location on a tape

– Change state of the machine

Alan Turing (1912-1954)Mathematician & Computer Scientist

Turing Machine


Nano & Meso: Self-Replicating Machines

Thought Experiment– 1947 & 1948 Lectures

– 1955 Scientific American article

– Just way too hard in the 1940’s & 1950’s

– Settled for Cellular Automata

Today 3D Printers, Tomorrow Lunar Factories– RepRap, MakerBot, etc..

John von Neumann (1903-1957)Mathematician & Computer Scientist

Self-Replicating Machines

Artist conception, “self-growing”robotic-lunar factoryMakerBot


Bio: Synthethic Biology (CAD Machines)

CAD for Bacteria Bacteria are brilliant and old (3.5B years)

Craig VenterBiologist & Entrepreneur


Cogno: SYNPASE (Low-Energy Machines)

Brains as 1 litre, 20W, Exascale super-computers Brains as low-energy, pattern learning machines

Dharmendra ModaComputer Scientist


What is Smarter Planet?3 I’s = Smarter Systems (less waste, better decisions)

INSTRUMENTED

We now have the ability to measure, sense and see the exact condition of practically everything.

INTERCONNECTED

People, systems and objects can communicate

and interact with each other in entirely new

ways.

INTELLIGENT

We can respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results

by predicting and optimizing

for future events.

WORKFORCE

PRODUCTS

SUPPLY CHAIN

COMMUNICATIONS

TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS

IT NETWORKS


What improves Quality-of-Life? Smarter Human-Serving Systems = Service System Innovations

A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*)1. Transportation & supply chain

2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment

3. Food & products manufacturing

4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech

5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access)B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*)

6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*)

7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*)

8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting (wealthy) (21%*)

9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*)

10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*)C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*)

11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax)

12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax)

13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax)

20/10/10

0/19/0

2/7/42/1/1

7/6/11/1/0

5/17/27

1/0/2

24/24/1

2/20/247/10/3

5/2/2

3/3/10/0/0

1/2/2

Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities

* = US Labor % in 2009.

“61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”


California Human Development Report 2011:From meaning-of-life to quality-of-life…. http://w

ww

.measureofam

erica.org/docs/AP

ortraitOfC

A.pdf


Universities key to regions

Three Streams

– Transfer knowledge

– Create knowledge

– Apply knowledgeto co-create value

Nested Holistic Systems

– Flows

– Development

– Governance

Nation

State/Province

City/Metro

UniversityCollege

K-12

Cultural &ConferenceHotels

HospitalMedical

Research

Worker(professional)

Family(household)

For-profits

Non-profits

U-BEEJob Creator/Sustainer

Third Stream is about U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial

Ecosystems


Nations compete and cooperate: Universities important% WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities (2009 Data)

Japan

ChinaGermany

France

United KingdomItaly

Russia SpainBrazilCanada

IndiaMexico AustraliaSouth Korea

NetherlandsTurkey

Sweden

y = 0,7489x + 0,3534R² = 0,719

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

% g

loba

l G

DP

% top 500 universities


Sustainability/Resilience & Innovation: Local-p global-i supply chains

World as System of SystemsWorld (light blue - largest)Nations (green - large)States (dark blue - medium)Cities (yellow - small)Universities (red - smallest)

Cities as System of Systems-Transportation & Supply Chain-Water & Waste Recycling-Food & Products ((Nano)-Energy & Electricity-Information/ICT & Cloud (Info)-Buildings & Construction-Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment-Banking & Finance-Healthcare & Family (Bio)-Education & Professions (Cogno)-Government (City, State, Nation)

Nations: Innovation Opportunities- GDP/Capita (level and growth rate)- Energy/Capita (fossil and renewable)

Developed MarketNations

(> $20K GDP/Capita)

Emerging MarketNations

(< $20K GDP/Capita)


Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs: Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worldshttp://www.service-science.info/archives/1056

Nation

State/Province

City/Region

UniversityCollege

K-12

Cultural &ConferenceHotels

HospitalMedical

Research

Worker(professional)

Family(household)

For-profits

Non-profits

U-BEEJob Creator/Sustainer

U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City

“The future is already here (at universities),it is just not evenlydistributed.”

“The best way topredict the futureis to (inspire the nextgeneration of studentsto) build it better.”

InnovationsUniversities/RegionsCalculus (Cambridge/UK)Physics (Cambridge/UK)Computer Science (Columbia/NY)Microsoft (Harvard/WA)Yahoo (Stanford/CA)Google (Stanford/CA)Facebook (Harvard/CA)

© 2012 IBM Corporation

IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)

StakeholderPriorities

Education

Research

Business

Government

StakeholderPriorities

Education

Research

Business

Government

Service Systems

Customer-provider interactions that enable value cocreation

Dynamic configurations of resources: people, technologies, organisations and information

Increasing scale, complexity and connectedness of service systems

B2B, B2C, C2C, B2G, G2C, G2G service networks

Service Systems

Customer-provider interactions that enable value cocreation

Dynamic configurations of resources: people, technologies, organisations and information

Increasing scale, complexity and connectedness of service systems

B2B, B2C, C2C, B2G, G2C, G2G service networks

Service Science

To discover the underlying principles of complex service systems

Systematically create, scale and improve systems

Foundations laid by existingdisciplines

Progress in academic studies and practical tools

Gaps in knowledge and skills

Service Science

To discover the underlying principles of complex service systems

Systematically create, scale and improve systems

Foundations laid by existingdisciplines

Progress in academic studies and practical tools

Gaps in knowledge and skills

Develop programmes & qualifications

Develop programmes & qualifications

Service Innovation

Growth in service GDP and jobs

Service quality & productivity

Environmental friendly & sustainable

Urbanisation &aging population

Globalisation & technology drivers

Opportunities for businesses, governments and individuals

Service Innovation

Growth in service GDP and jobs

Service quality & productivity

Environmental friendly & sustainable

Urbanisation &aging population

Globalisation & technology drivers

Opportunities for businesses, governments and individuals

Skills& Mindset

Skills& Mindset

Knowledge& Tools

Knowledge& Tools

Employment& Collaboration

Employment& Collaboration

Policies & Investment

Policies & Investment

Develop and improve service innovation roadmaps, leading to a doubling of investment in service education and research by 2015

Develop and improve service innovation roadmaps, leading to a doubling of investment in service education and research by 2015

Encourage an interdisciplinary approach

Encourage an interdisciplinary approach

The white paper offers a starting point to -

The white paper offers a starting point to -

Priorities: Succeeding through Service Innovation - A Framework for Progress(http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ssme/)

Source: Workshop and Global Survey of Service Research Leaders (IfM & IBM 2008)

Glossary of definitions, history and outlook of service research, global trends, and ongoing debate

1. Emerging demand 2. Define the domain 3. Vision and gaps 4. Bridge the gaps 5. Call for actions

http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ssme/


What is service science? A service system? The ABC’s?

Economics & Law

Design/ Cognitive Science Systems

Engineering

OperationsComputer Science/

Artificial Intelligence

Marketing

“a service system is ahuman-made system to improve provider-customer interactionsand value-cocreation outcomes,

by dynamically configuring resourceaccess via value propositions,

most often studied by many disciplines,one piece at a time.”

“service science isthe transdisciplinary study of

service systems &value-cocreation”

The ABC’s:The provider (A)

and a customer (B)transform a target (C)


Resiliency: Capability to rebuild (and recycle) rapidly

China Broad Group:30 Stories in 15 Days


Manufacturing as a local recycling & assembly service

Ryan Chin:Urban Mobility


Self-driving cars

Steve Mahan:Test “Driver”


Imagining quality-of-life innovations…


City challenge: buildings and transportation

Ryan Chin:Smart Cities


Cities: land-population-energy-carbon

Carlo Ratti:Senseable Cities


Four measures

Innovativeness

Equity

Sustainability

Resiliency


US National Academy of Engineering Grand ChallengesA. Systems that focus on flow of things humans need

1. Transportation & Supply Chain

Restore and enhance urban infrastructure

2. Water & Waste/Climate & Green tech

Provide access to clear water

3. Food & Products

Manager nitrogen cycle

4. Energy & Electricity

Make solar energy economical

Provide energy from fusion

Develop carbon sequestration methods

5. Information & Communication Technology

Enhance virtual reality

Secure cyberspace

Reverse engineer the brain

B. Systems that focus on human activity & development6. Buildings & Construction (smart spaces)

Restore and enhance urban infrastructure

7. Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment (tourism)

Enhance virtual reality

8. Banking & Finance/Business & Consulting

9. Healthcare & Family Life

Advance health informatics

Engineer better medicines

Reverse engineer the brain

10. Education & Work Life/Jobs & Entrepreneurship

Advance personalized learning

Engineer the tools of scientific discovery

C. Systems that focus on human governance11. City & Security

Restore and improve urban infrastructure

Secure cyberspace

Prevent nuclear terror

12. State/Region & Development

13. Nation & Rights


Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & BreadthSystems that focus on flows of things Systems that governSystems that support people’s activities

transportation & supply chain water &

waste

food &products

energy & electricity

building & construction

healthcare& family

retail &hospitality banking

& finance

ICT &cloud

education &work

citysecure

statescale

nationlaws

social sciences

behavioral sciences

management sciences

political sciences

learning sciences

cognitive sciences

system sciences

information sciences

organization sciences

decision sciences

run professions

transform professions

innovate professions

e.g., econ & law

e.g., marketing

e.g., operations

e.g., public policy

e.g., game theory and strategy

e.g., psychology

e.g., industrial eng.

e.g., computer sci

e.g., knowledge mgmt

e.g., stats & design

e.g., knowledge worker

e.g., consultant

e.g., entrepreneur

stake

holders Customer

Provider

Authority

Competitors

resources

People

Technology

Information

Organizations

change History

(Data Analytics)

Future(Roadmap)

value

Run

Transform(Copy)

Innovate(Invent)

Observe Stakeholders (As-Is)

Observe Resource Access (As-Is)

Imagine Possibilities (Has-Been & Might-Become)

Realize Value (To-Be)

disciplines

systems

37 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)37

T-shaped professionalsdepth & breadth

BREADTH

DE

PT

H

(analytic thinking & problem solving)

Many culturesMany disciplines

Many systems(understanding & communications)

Deep in one d

iscip

line

Deep in one sys

tem

Deep in one cu

lture


From Work Done By the Institute for the Future (IFTF.org)

Transdisciplinary = T-Shaped People (Breadth & Depth)

IBM GMU External Relations 201239

Evolving regional talent & skills


making long term investments to develop talent for the growth markets

Collaboration with UniversitiesIBM works with 5,000 universities and 10,000 faculties around the globe. We have joint initiatives and investments with universities in Vietnam, Malaysia, India, Russia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Egypt, China and Africa to encourage the training of skills required.

Government Partnerships

By helping governments to establish new national research facilities, we are helping to create new industries, helping to develop long terms skills curriculums like SSME.+D

Global Placements & MentoringTransferring knowledge and expertise to the growth markets is critical. One of the ways we do this is to move experts into the market to coach and train local teams.


A Framework for Global Civil Society

Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200 years." His insight is true today – except yesterday's 200 years has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators, incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil society.

– John Sexton, President NYU


Visit IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA

Upcoming Conferences– July 2012

• ISSS San Jose• HSSE San Francisco

More Information– Blog

• www.service-science.info– Twitter

• @JimSpohrer– Presentations

• www.slideshare.net/spohrer– Email

• [email protected]


IBM Centennial: Icon of Progress


IBM operates in 170 countries around the globe

IBM has 426,000 employees worldwide

2011 Financials Revenue - $ 106.9B Net Income - $ 15.9B EPS - $ 13.44 Net Cash - $16.6B

22% of IBM’s revenue in Growth Market countries; growing at 11% in 2011

Number 1 in patent generation for 19 consecutive years ; 6,180 US patents awarded in 2011

More than 40% of IBM’s workforce conducts business away from an office

5 Nobel Laureates

9 time winner of the President’s National Medal of Technology & Innovation - latest award for Blue Gene Supercomputer

“Let’s Build a Smarter Planet"

The Smartest Machine On Earth

100 Years of Business & Innovation in 2011

IBM’s Leadership Changes

55% of IBM’s Workforce is New to the company in the last 5 years


“Back-up” Tokyo

Resort

Tourism

Business

Backup City


Technology has a cost

“The burden of knowledge”

Cesar Hidalgo:Societal Knowledge


The limits of our individual knowledge


Societal and individual knowledge

Herbert Simon:Bounded Rationality

Ben Jones:Burden of Knowledge


Specialization has benefits

Adam Smith:Division of Labor

David Ricardo:Comparative Advantage


Recombination (integration) has benefits

Joseph Schumpeter:Creative Destruction

Brian Arthur:Nature of Technology


Where are the opportunities? Every city and region!

'building smarter systems isn't simply a proposal or theory, but a practical reality, with clear steps, quantifiable benefits and best practices'

- Sam Palmisano


What are the benefits of more education? Of higher skills?

…But it can be costly, American student loan debt is over $900M


~30 years of skill transformations: depth & breadth

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

Levy, F, & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton University Press.

Expert Thinking

Complex Communication

Routine Manual

Non-routine Manual

Routine Cognitive


Thank-You! Questions?

Dr. James (“Jim”) C. SpohrerInnovation Champion & Director, IBM University Programs & open worldwide entrepreneurship research (IBM UPower) [email protected]

“Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM“If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org“Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU

“Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson

“The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay“Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer

“Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells

“The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov“Think global, act local.” – Geddes


Time

ECOLOGY

14BBig Bang

(NaturalWorld)

10KCities

(Human-MadeWorld)

sun (energy)

writing(symbols and scribes,

stored memoryand knowledge)

earth(molecules &

stored energy)

written laws(governance and

stored control)

bacteria(single-cell life)

sponges(multi-cell life)

money(governed

transportable valuestored value,

“economic energy”)

universities(knowledge workers)

clams (neurons)trilobites (brains)

printing press (books)steam engine (work)200M

bees (socialdivision-of-labor)

60

transistor(routine

cognitive work)

Where is the “Real Science” - wonders to appreciate?In the many sciences that study the natural and human-made worlds…

Unraveling the mystery of evolving hierarchical-complexity in new populations…To discover the world’s architectures and mechanisms for computing non-zero-sum

Entity Architectures (ЄN) of nested, networked Holistic-Product-Service-Systems (HPSS)

55

SERVICE(Value-Cocreation)

AS-ISTarget & Context

TO-BETarget &Context

Aspirations

Goals Constraints

Responsibilities

Needs

Wants OUTCOME

Target &Context

IF-REDONETarget &Context

Learning

Side Effects

Experience

Unintended Consequences

Gaps

InsightsSHAREDINFORMATION

Plans

Procedures

Flowcharts

Rules

Policies

Regulations

Templates

Schedules

Diagrams/ Schematics

Instructions

ORGANIZATIONS

Software

Applications

Equipment

InfrastructureTools

VehiclesHardware

TECHNOLOGY/ENVIRONMENT

Users

IntermediariesAgents

Managers

Customers

Employees

Engineers

Contractors

PEOPLE

Consultants

Buildings

Expectations

Relationships

Disputes

Suppliers

Competitors

GovernmentAgencies

Third PartiesBanks

Insurance

Web Communities

eBusinesses

Benefits

Sacrifices

Shareholders

Criminals

Prices

Value-cocreation from resource fusion (integration) and fission (specialization)


Up-SkillCycle

University-Region1University-Region1

University-Region2University-Region2

= New Venture

= Acquisition

= High-Growth Acquisition/ New IBM BU (Growing)

= High-Productivity/ Mature IBM BU (Shrinking)

= IBMer moving from mature BU to acquisition

= IBMer moving intoIBMer on Campus role(help create graduateswith Smarter-Planet skills,help create Smarter Planetoriented new ventures;Refresh skills

= Graduates withSmarter Planet skills

IBMIBM


Installation DeploymentIrruption

The Industrial Revolution

Age of Steam and Railways

Age of Steel, Electricityand Heavy EngineeringAge of Oil, Automobilesand Mass ProductionAge of Information and Telecommunications

Frenzy Synergy Maturity

Panic1797

Depression

1893

Crash

1929

Credit Crisis 2008

Coming period ofInstitutional Adjustment and Production Capital

1

2

3

4

5

Panic1847

1771

1829

1875

1908

1971

1873

1920

1974

1829

Crash

•Formation of Mfg. industry

•Repeal of Corn Laws opening trade

•Standards on gauge, time•Catalog sales companies •Economies of scale

•Urban development•Support for interventionism

•Build-out of Interstate highways

•IMF, World Bank, BIS

Source: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages; (Edward Elar Publishers, 2003).

~250 years of infrastructure transformations


~100 years of US job transformations

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis


We need better frameworks, theories, and models of…

Four I’s– Infrastructure

– Individuals

– Institutions

– Information

Four Measures– Innovativeness

– Equity

– Sustainability

– Resiliency

Societal Infrastructure(Technologies & Environment)

Individuals(Skills)

Institutions(Rules, Jobs)

Cultural Information(Quality-of-Life Measures)


Service systems entities learn to apply knowledge

L

LearningTo Apply Knowledge

Exploitation Exploration

Run Transform Innovate

Operations

Maintenance

Insurance

Incremental

Radical

Super-Radical

Internal

External

Interaction

Copy It

Invent ItDo It

March, J.G. (1991) Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organizational Science. 2(1).71-87.Sanford, L.S. (2006) Let go to grow: Escaping the commodity trap. Prentice Hall. New York, NY.


Service Science: Conceptual Framework

Resources: People, Organizations, Technology, Shared Information Resources: Individuals, Institutions, Infrastructure, Information Stakeholders: Customers, Providers, Authorities, Competitors Measures: Quality, Productivity, Compliance, Sustainable Innovation Access Rights: Own, Lease, Shared, Privileged

Ecology(Populations & Diversity)

Entities(Service Systems, both Individuals & Institutions)

Interactions(Service Networks,

link, nest, merge, divide)

Outcomes(Value Changes, both

beneficial and non-beneficial)

Value Proposition (Offers & Reconfigurations/

Incentives, Penalties & Risks)

Governance Mechanism (Rules & Constraints/

Incentives, Penalties & Risks)

Access Rights(Relationships of Entities)

Measures(Rankings of Entities)

Resources(Competences, Roles in Processes,

Specialized, Integrated/Holistic)

Stakeholders(Processes of Valuing,

Perspectives, Engagement)

Identity(Aspirations & Lifecycle/

History)

Reputation(Opportunities & Variety/

History)

prefer sustainable non-zero-sum

outcomes,i.e., win-win

win-win

lose-lose win-lose

lose-win

Spohrer, JC (2011) On looking into Vargo and Lusch's concept of generic actors in markets, or“It's all B2B …and beyond!” Industrial Marketing Management, 40(2), 199–201.

62 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)62

Our Past, Present, Future: Refining Individuals & Institutions Learning Together

Any Device Learning

TECHNOLOGY IMMERSION

PERSONAL LEARNING PATHS

Student-Centered Processes

KNOWLEDGE SKILLS

Learning Communities

GLOBAL INTEGRATION

Services Specialization

ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT

Systemic View of Education

Intelligent• Aligned Data• Outcomes Insight

Instrumented• Student-centric• Integrated Assessment

Interconnected• Shared Services• Interoperable Processes

ContinuingEducation

HigherEducation

SecondarySchool

PrimarySchool

WorkforceSkills

Individuals Learning Continuum TheEducationalContinuum

Institutio

ns Learn

ing Contin

uum

EconomicSustainability

http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/education-for-a-smarter-planet.html


• For each industry the journey consists of a series of steps along a path of competencies to reach a smarter outcome for organizations

• The power to pull together many sources of data in real time to source actionable insights and optimize clients’ business

• Revenue IBM generated from Analytics solutions grew 16% from 2010

Analytics is enabling clients with trusted and relevant information in REAL TIME


Through to 2015, more than 85% of Fortune 500 organizations will fail to exploit ‘big data’ for competitive advantage

--Gartner Predictions 2012


Developing capabilities that improve visibility, control and automation of cloud computing services


Private & Hybrid CloudsCloud Enablement technologies

Managed Cloud ServicesInfra & platform as a Service

Cloud Business SolutionsSoftware & Business Process as a Service

Commitment to open standards & broad ecosystems

IBMSmartCloud

IBMSmartCloudSolutions

IBMSmartCloudServices

IBMSmartCloudFoundation

Business Process as a ServiceSoftware as a Service

Platform as a Service

Infrastructure as a Service


Established presence in many Growth Market countries...

67

IndiaSouth Asia

CentralEasternEurope

Middle EastAfrica

SofiaZagrebPrague

BrnoOstravaTallinn

BudapestAlmaty

RigaVilnius

WarsawWroclawKrakowGdansk

KatowicePoznan

BucharestTimisoara

UfaKazan

Rostov-on-DonSamara

PermNovosibirrskKrasnoyarsk

MoscowSt PetersburgEkaterinburg

BelgradeBratislava

Banska BystricaKosice

LjubljanaAnkara

IstanbulIzmire

DnepropetrovskKiev

Tashkent

Australia New Zealand

BrisbaneSydney

AucklandPerth

AdelaideHobart

BallaratMelbourneWellington

ChristchurchLower Hutt

ASEAN

Bandar Seri BegawanJakarta

SurabayaMedan

MakassarManila

CebuChiangmai

BangkokPattayaDaNang

Ho Chi Minh City

GreaterChinaGroup

BeijingHong Kong

TaipeiHefei

XiamenChongqing

ShanghaiBeijingTianjin

FuzhouGuangzhou

ShenzhenNanjingHarbin

ShijiazhuangWuhan

ZhengzouChangsha

ChangchunNanningSuzhou

NanchangShenyang

DalianTaiyuahQingdao

JinanXi’an

ChengduUrumchiKunming

HangzhouNingbo

Korea

SeoulDaejeon Daegu

KwangjuPusan

LatinAmericaBuenos Aires

CordobaRosario

Rio de JaneiroSalvadorFortalez

Belo HorizonteUberlandia

RecifeCuritiba

Porto AlegreCampinas

JoinvilleAnto fogasta

MedellinCali

GuayaquilGuadalajara

MonterreyQueretaro

Lima

ChandigarhDehradun

DelhiGurgaon

NoidaJaipur

LucknowGuwahati

AhmedabadIndore

MumbaiKolkata

PuneBhubaneshwar

HyderabadVizag

BangaloreChennai

CoimbatoreKochiNasik

ColomboDakkar

LuandaQatar

AlexandriaCairoAccra

NairobiCasablanca

Port LouisLagos

KarachiIslamabad

LahoreRiyadhDakar

JohannesburgPretoriaDurban

Cape TownPort ElizabethBloemfontein

Dar es SalaamTunis

Abu DhabiDubai

OuangadougouN’Djamena

KinshasaLibreville

AccraLilongwe

AntananarivoNiamey

SeychellesFreetownKampala

Lusaka

http://w3.ibm.com/bluepedia/pages/createpage.action?spaceKey=en&title=Latin+Caribbean&linkCreation=true&fromPageId=15629

68



Outside-Inside Framework Applied: Past & FutureHow much have cognitive capabilities been increasing?

- 100,000 Generations: SpeechNew Species (Kind of Agent)

New Use of Old Sense (sounds -> symbols: language) - 500 : Writing

New Mediator: Store symbols for later use (and New Skills = Scribes) - 400 : Libraries, 40 Universities, 24 Printing

New Mediator, Places: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations) - 16 : Accurate Clocks for Navigation & More

New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organization) - 5 : Telephone, 4 - Radio, 3 - TV, 2 - Computers, 1 - Internet

New Mediator: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses)

New Use Old Sense: Stories (e.g., Why Honeymooners = Flintstones) -0.5 :GPS/Sensors for Navigation & More

New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses) +0.5 : On-Demand e-Business (?business on demand?)

New Agent (Businesses become more automated, adaptive, resilient, responsive) +1 : NBIC (?nano-bio-info-cogno convergence?)

New Material (Nanotechnology – first impact on materials, electronics, and life sciences)

New Sense (Bionics - neural & biochemical interfaces cure deafness, blindness, organ failure)

New Mediator (Information WorldBoard - planetary augmented reality system)

New Agents (Cognitive robots or Bots - natural language interface to all human knowledge) +5 : Utility Fog (?materials on demand?)

New Material (Utility Fog – billions of particles assemble on-demand to create macro-scale objects)

Nonzero : The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright

69



The New Environment and Human Activity: Where does our time go?From the search for food to the search for information

InformationInformationEnergyEnergy

MaxUseful info

TimeMaxEnergyTime [ ][ ]

Source: Pirolli (2002)

Humans as Informavore (Miller, 1983)

70



Cognitive capabilities: In pursuit of a metric

Knowledge in our minds is soft capability Knowledge in our genes, body, brains is hard capability Knowledge in our organizations is relationship capability However, in human and social systems attitudes, incentives, and

games are an element of the cognitive capabilities of the system Given a goal: land and safely return humans on Mars, one can

estimate how many resources would be required to achieve this goal given the cognitive capabilities of the system.

How does one compare the complexity of achieving different goals? How does one compare sensing, communications, decision making,

and execution performance?

Natural-Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Human Intelligence

by Andy Clark “…human cognitive evolution seems to involve the distinct way human brains repeatedly create and exploit various species of cognitive technology.” (pg. 78)


71

Identifies entrepreneurs developing businesses aligning with our Smarter Planet vision.

SmartCamp finalists raised more than $50m and received significant press in Wall Street Journal, Forbes and Bloomberg

- in

Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012 Apply by April 27th

Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012 Apply by April 27th

SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012 Apply by May 3rd

SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012 Apply by May 3rd

North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012 Apply by May 25th

North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012 Apply by May 25th

apply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcampapply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcamp

Exclusive Networking andMentoring eventExclusive Networking andMentoring event

North America SmartCamp lead: Eric Apse, [email protected] Programs lead: Dawn Tew, [email protected]


Measuring Impact

SSME: IBM Icon of Progress & IBM Research Outstanding Accomplishment– Internal 10x return: CBM, IDG, SDM Pricing & Costing, BIW COBRA, SIMPLE, IoFT, Fringe, VCR

• Key was tools to model customers & IBM better• Also tools to shift routine physical, mental, interactional & identify synergistic new ventures• Alignment with Smarter Planet & Analytics (instrumented, interconnected, intelligent)• Alignment with Smarter Cities, Smarter Campus, Smarter Buildings (Holistic Service Systems)

– External: More than $1B in national investments in Service Innovation activities

– External: Increase conferences, journals, and publications

– External: Service Science SIGs in Professional Associations

– External: Course & Program Guidelines for T-shaped Professionals, 500+ institutions

– External: National Service Science Institutions, Books & Case Studies (Open Services Innovation)

Service Research, a Portfolio Approach– 1. Improve existing offerings (value propositions that can move the needle on KPI’s)

– 2. Create new offerings (for old and new customers)

– 3. Improve outcomes insourcing, outsourcing, acquisitions, divestitures (interconnect-fission-fusion)

– 4. For all three of the above, improve customer/partner capabilities (ratchet each other up)

– 5. For all four of the above, increase patents and service IP assets (some donated to open forums)

– 6. For all five of the above, increase publications and body-of-knowledge (professional associations)


Who I am

Director IBM Global University Programs since 2009– Global team works with 5000 university world wide (http://www.ibm.com/university)

– Research (Awards), Readiness (Skills), Recruiting, Revenue, Responsibility

– Transform “IBM on Campus” brand awareness (“Smarter Planet/Smarter Cities”)

– Create “Urban Service System” Research Centers & U-BEEs Founding Director of IBM's first Service Research group from 2003-2009

– Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA

– 10x ROI with four IBM outstanding and eleven accomplishment awards

– Improve existing offerings, create new, portfolio synergies, partners, patents, publications

– I know/work with service research pioneers from many academic disciplines• I advocate for Service Science, Management, Engineering, and Design (SSME+D)

– Short-term: Curriculum (T-shaped people, deep in an existing discipline)– Long-term: New transdiscipline and profession (awaiting CAD tool)

• I advocate for SRII (“one of the founding fathers”)• Co-editor of the “Handbook of Service Science” (Springer 2010)

Other background (late 90’s and before)– Founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations group in Silicon Valley

– Apple Computer’s (Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist) award (90’s)

– Ph.D. Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence from Yale University (80’s)

– B.S. in Physics from MIT (70’s)


Eleven levels of systems

Level AKA ~No. People ~No. Entities Example

0. Individual Person 1 10,000,000,000 Jim

1. Family Household 10 1,000,000,000 Spohrer’s

2.Neighborhood Street 100 100,000,000 Kensington

3. Community Block 1000 10,000,000 Bird Land

4. Urban-Zone District 10,000 1,000,000 SC Unified

5. Urban-Center City 100,0000 100,000 Santa Clara

6.Metro-Region County 1,000,000 10,000 SC County

7. State Province 10,000,000 1,000 CA

8. Nation Country 100,000,000 100 USA

9. Continent Union 1,000,000,000 10 NAFTA

10. Planet World 10,000,000,000 1 UN


Societal resiliency includes all levels

Matryoska dolls:Origin Japanese


What is the future? We can imagine many possibilities…

Kurzweilai.net

future of innovation 20120628 v2

Education

ibm corporation

ibm university programs

regional development

accelerating change

technology innovation

s services

second info

business value