future of human civilization

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Humanities The Future?

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Page 1: Future of Human Civilization

HumanitiesThe Future?

Page 2: Future of Human Civilization

Future of Humanity

Future of Religion

Future of Government

Future of Money

Future of Art

Future of Architecture

Future of Science and Technology

Future of Society

Future of Humans

Page 3: Future of Human Civilization

The most instructive way I know to express this cosmic

chronology is to imagine the fifteen-billion-year lifetime of the

universe (or at least its present incarnation since the Big Bang) compressed into the span

of a single year.

Then every billion years of Earth history would correspond to about twenty-four days of our

cosmic year, and one second of that year to 475 real revolutions of the Earth about the sun.

On this scale, the events of our history books-even books that make significant efforts to

deprovincialize the present-are so compressed that it is necessary to give a second-by-

second recounting of the last seconds of the cosmic year.

Even then, we find events listed as contemporary that we have been taught to consider as

widely separated in time.

In the history of life, an equally rich tapestry must have been woven in other periods-for

example, between 10:02 and 10:03 on the morning of April 6th or September 16th. But we

have detailed records only for the very end of the cosmic year.

-Gardens of Eden by Carl Sagan

Page 4: Future of Human Civilization

PRE-DECEMBER DATES

• Big Bang ~January 1

• Origin of the Milky Way Galaxy ~ May 1

• Origin of the solar system ~ September 9

• Formation of the Earth ~ September 14

• Origin of life on Earth ~ September 25

• Formation of the oldest rocks known on Earth ~ October 2

• Date of oldest fossils (bacteria and blue-green algae) ~ October 9

• Invention of sex (by microorganisms) ~ November 1

• Oldest fossil photosynthetic plants ~November 12

• Eukaryotes (first cells with nuclei) flourish ~ November 15

Page 5: Future of Human Civilization

DECEMBER 31st

• Origin of Proconsul and Ramapithecus, probable ancestors ofapes and men ~ 1:30 P.M.

• First humans ~ 10:30 P.M.

• Widespread use of stone tools ~11:00 P.M.

• Domestication of fire by Peking man ~11:46 P.M.

• Beginning of most recent glacial period ~11:56 P.M.

• Seafarers settle Australia ~11:58P.M.

• Extensive cave painting in Europe ~11:59 P.M.

• Invention of agriculture ~11:59:20 P.M.

• Neolithic civilization; first cities ~11:59:35 P.M.

• First dynasties in Sumer, Ebla and Egypt; development ofastronomy ~11:59:50 P.M.

• Invention of the alphabet; Akkadian Empire ~11:59:51P.M.

• Hammurabic legal codes in Babylon; Middle Kingdom in Egypt~11:59:52 P.M.

• Bronze metallurgy; Mycenaean culture; Trojan War; Olmecculture: invention of the compass ~11:59:53 P.M.

Page 6: Future of Human Civilization

DECEMBER 31st

• Iron metallurgy; First Assyrian Empire; Kingdom of Israel;

• founding of Carthage by Phoenicia ~11:59:54 P.M.

• Ahsokan India; Ch'in Dynasty China; Periclean Athens; birth of

Buddha ~11:59:55 P.M.

• Euclidean geometry; Archimedean physics; Ptolemaic

astronomy; Roman Empire; birth of Christ ~11:59:56 P.M.

• Zero and decimals invented in Indian arithmetic; Rome falls;

Moslem conquests- ~11:59:57 P.M.

• Mayan civilization; Sung Dynasty China; Byzantine empire;

Mongol invasion; Crusades ~11:59:58 P.M.

• Renaissance in Europe; voyages of discovery from Europe and

from Ming Dynasty China; emergence of the experimental

method in science ~11:59:59 P.M.

• Widespread development of science and technology; emergence of a

global culture; acquisition of the means for self-destruction of the

human species; The first steps in spacecraft planetary exploration

and of the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence. ~ Now: first second

of New Year's Day.

Page 7: Future of Human Civilization

Understanding Time

The construction of such tables and calendars is inevitably humbling.

It is disturbing to find that in such a cosmic year the Earth does not

condense out of interstellar matter until early September; dinosaurs

emerge on Christmas Eve; flowers arise on December 28th; and men

and women originate at 10:30

P.M. on New Year's Eve.

All of recorded history occupies the last ten seconds of December 31;

and the time from the waning of the Middle Ages to the present occupies

little more than one second.

But because I have arranged it that way, the first cosmic year has just

ended. And despite the insignificance of the instant we have so far

occupied in cosmic time, it is clear that what happens on and near Earth

at the beginning of the second cosmic year will depend very much on

the scientific wisdom and the distinctly human sensitivity of mankind.

Page 8: Future of Human Civilization

Future Shock – Culture Shock

The parallel term "culture shock" has already begun

to creep into the popular vocabulary.

Culture shock is the effect that immersion in a

strange culture has on the unprepared visitor.

The culture shock phenomenon accounts for much of

the bewilderment, frustration, and

disorientation that plagues people in their dealings

with other societies. It causes a

breakdown in communication, a misreading of reality,

an inability to cope. Yet culture shock

is relatively mild in comparison with the much more

serious malady, future shock.

Future shock is the dizzying disorientation brought

on by the premature arrival of the future. It may well

be the most important disease of tomorrow.

Page 9: Future of Human Civilization

Future Shock – Culture Shock

Future shock is a time phenomenon, a product of the greatly

accelerated rate of change

in society. It arises from the superimposition of a new culture

on an old one. It is culture

shock in one's own society.

Take an individual out of his own culture and set him down

suddenly in an environment sharply different from his own,

with a different set of cues to react to different conceptions of

time, space, work, love, religion, sex, and everything else

then cut him off from any hope of retreat to a more familiar

social landscape, and the dislocation he suffers is

doubly severe.

Moreover, if this new culture is itself in constant turmoil, and

if—worse yet—its values are incessantly changing, the sense

of disorientation will be still further intensified.

Given few clues as to what kind of behaviour is rational under

the radically new circumstances, the victim may well become

a hazard to himself and others.

Page 10: Future of Human Civilization

Future Shock Time frame

Painting with the broadest of brush strokes, biologist

Julian Huxley informs us that "The tempo of human

evolution during recorded history is at least 100,000

times as rapid as that of pre-human evolution."

Inventions or improvements of a magnitude that took

perhaps 50,000 years to accomplish during the early

Palaeolithic era were, he says, "run through in a mere

millennium toward its close; and with the advent of

settled civilization, the unit of change soon became

reduced to the century."

The rate of change, accelerating throughout the past

5000 years, has become, in his words, "particularly

noticeable during the past 300 years."

Page 11: Future of Human Civilization

Future Shock “Technology”

To most people, the term technology conjures up images of smoky steel mills or clanking machines. Perhaps the classic symbol of technology is still the assembly line created by Henry Ford half a century ago and made into a potent social icon by Charlie Chaplin in Modern Times.

This symbol, however, has always been inadequate, indeed, misleading, for technology has always been more than factories and machines.

The invention of the horse collar in the middle ages led to major changes in agricultural methods and was as much a technological advance as the invention of the Bessemer furnace centuries later.

Moreover, technology includes techniques, as well as the machines that may or may not be necessary to apply them.

It includes ways to make chemical reactions occur, ways to breed fish, plant forests, light theatres, count votes or teach history.

Page 12: Future of Human Civilization

Future Shock “Acceleration”

The old symbols of technology are even more misleading today, when the most

advanced technological processes are carried out far from assembly lines or open hearths.

Indeed, in electronics, in space technology, in most of the new industries, relative silence and clean surroundings are characteristic—even sometimes essential. And the

assembly line—the organization of armies of men to carry out simple repetitive functions—is an anachronism. It is time for our symbols of technology to change—to catch

up with the quickening changes in technology, itself.

This acceleration is frequently dramatized by a thumbnail account of the progress in

transportation.

It has been pointed out, for example, that in 6000 B.C. the fastest transportation available to man over long distances was the camel caravan, averaging eight miles per

hour.

It was not until about 1600 B.C. when the chariot was invented that the maximum speed was raised to roughly twenty miles per hour. So impressive was this invention, so

difficult was it to exceed this speed limit, that nearly 3,500 years later, when the first mail coach began operating in England in 1784, it averaged a mere ten mph.

The first steam locomotive, introduced in 1825, could muster a top speed of only thirteen mph, and the great sailing ships of the time laboured along at less than half that

speed.

It was probably not until the 1880's that man, with the help of a more advanced steam locomotive, managed to reach a speed of one hundred mph. It took the human race

millions of years to attain that record.

It took only fifty-eight years, however, to quadruple the limit, so that by 1938 airborne

man was cracking the 400-mph line. It took a mere twenty-year flick of time to double the

limit again. And by the 1960's rocket planes approached speeds of 4000 mph, and men in

space capsules were circling the earth at 18,000 mph.

Plotted on a graph, the line representing progress in the past generation would leap vertically off the page.

Page 13: Future of Human Civilization

Future Shock “Are we blind to change?”

• “You would make a ship sail against the winds and currents by lighting a bonfire under her decks? I have no time for such nonsense.” -Napoléon Bonaparte

Within a few years ships with sails got replaced by steam ships.

• In 1865 a newspaper editor told his readers that "Well-informed people know that it is impossible to transmit the voice over wires and that, were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.“

Less than 10 years later Telephone was invented.

• Famous American astronomer, Simon Newcomb, had not long before assured the world that "No possible combination of known substances, known forms of machinery and known forms of force, can be united in a practical machine by which man shall fly long distances.“

Just a few years later Wright brother made the first flight.

• "nothing less than feeblemindedness to expect anything to come of the horseless carriage movement.“

6 Years later 1 Million Ford Model T cars were made in Detroit.

• Rutherford, himself, the discoverer of the atom, who said in 1933 that the energy in theatom's nucleus would never be released.

In 1942 First controlled Chain reaction took place.

Again and again the human brain—including the first class scientific brain—has blinded itself to the novel possibilities of the future, has narrowed its field of concern to gain momentary reassurance, only to be rudely shaken by the accelerative thrust.

-Future Shock by Alvin Toffler

Page 14: Future of Human Civilization

Future of Humanity

▪ Most science fictional and futurist visions of the

future tend towards the negative - and for good

reason. Our environment is a mess, we have a

nasty tendency to misuse technologies, and

we're becoming increasingly capable of

destroying ourselves.

▪ But civilizational demise is by no means

guaranteed. Should we find a way to manage the

risks and avoid dystopic outcomes, our far future

looks astonishingly bright. Here are seven best-

case scenarios for the future of humanity.

▪ But before we go forward it's worth noting that

many of the scenarios listed are not mutually

exclusive. If things go really well, our civilization

will continue to evolve and diversify, leading to

many different types of futures.

Dystopia is an imaginary community or

society that is undesirable or frightening.

It is literally translated as "not-good

place", an antonym of utopia.

Page 15: Future of Human Civilization

Status quo

▪ While this is hardly the most exciting outcome for humanity, it is still an outcome. we may not be around to see the next century.

▪ Our ongoing survival even if it's under our current state of technological development could be considered a positive outcome.

▪ Some have even suggested that we've already reached our pinnacle as a species.

Page 16: Future of Human Civilization

A bright green Earth

▪ Visions of the far future tend to conjure

images of a Cybertron-like Earth, covered

from pole-to-pole in steel and oil. It's an

environmentalist's worst nightmare — one in

which nature has been completely swept

aside by the onslaught of technology and the

ravages of environmental exploitation.

▪ Yet it doesn't have to be this way; the future

of our planet could be far more green and

verdant than we ever imagined.

▪ Emerging branches of futurism, including

technogaianism and bright green

environmentalism, suggest that we can use

technologies to clean up the Earth and

create sustainable energy models, and even

to transform the planet itself.

Page 17: Future of Human Civilization

Watched over by

machines of loving grace

▪ Regrettably, it's very possible that the technological

Singularity will be an extinction event. The onset of

radically advanced machine intelligence — perhaps as

early as 30 years from now — will be so beyond our

control and understanding that it will likely do us in,

whether it happens deliberately, accidentally, or by our

own mismanagement of the process.

▪ But the same awesome power that could destroy us

could also result in the exact opposite. It's this

possibility — that a machine intelligence could create

a veritable utopia for humanity

▪ If future AI designers can guide and mould the

direction of these advanced systems and most

importantly their goal orientation it's conceivable that

we could give rise to what's called ‘friendly AI' — a

kind of Asimovian intelligence that's incapable of

inflicting any harm. And in fact, it could also serve as a

supremely powerful overseer and protector.

Page 18: Future of Human Civilization

The Three Laws of Robotics or

Asimov's Laws

1. A robot may not injure a human being

or, through inaction, allow a human

being to come to harm.

2. A robot must obey the orders given it

by human beings, except where such

orders would conflict with the First Law.

3. A robot must protect its own existence

as long as such protection does not

conflict with the First or Second Law.

Page 19: Future of Human Civilization

To boldly go where no one has

gone before...

• We need to get off this rock and start

colonizing other solar systems — there's no

question about it. Not only does our ongoing

survival depend on it (the ‘all our eggs in one

basket problem'), it's also in our nature as a

species to move on.

• Indeed, by venturing beyond our borders and

blowing past our biological limitations we have

continually pushed our society forward — what

has resulted in ongoing technological, social,

political, and economic progress.

• Even today, our limited ventures into space

have reaped countless benefits, including

satellite technologies, an improved

understanding of science — and even the

sheer thrill of seeing a high-definition image

streamed back from the surface of Mars.

Page 20: Future of Human Civilization

Inner space, not outer

space

• Alternatively (or in conjunction with

space travel), we could attain an ideal

existential mode by uploading

ourselves into massive

supercomputers.

• It's an idea that makes a lot of sense;

given the computational capacity of a

mega scale computer, like a

Matrioshka Brain (in which the matter

of entire planet is utilized for the

purpose of computation) or Dyson

Sphere (which can capture the energy

output of the sun), there would be

more to experience in a simulated

universe than in the real one itself.

Page 21: Future of Human Civilization

Eternal bliss

• Virtually every religion fantasizes

about a utopian afterlife. This only

makes sense given the

imperfections and dangers of the

real world; religion gives people the

opportunity to express their wildest

projections of an ideal state of

existence.

• Given our modern materialist

tendencies, many of us no longer

believe in heaven or anything else

awaiting us in some supposed

afterlife. But that doesn't mean we

can't create a virtual heaven on

Earth using our technologies.

The elimination of all suffering and the onset of perpetual pleasure. This could be as simple as eliminating pain and negative emotional states, or something far more dramatic and profound, like maximizing the amount of psychological, emotional, and physical pleasure that a single consciousness can experience.

Page 22: Future of Human Civilization

Cosmological transcension

• This is basically a place for those far-off

future states we can't possibly imagine —

but are desirable nonetheless.

• While this line of speculation tends to

venture into the realms of philosophy and

metaphysics (not that many of the other

items on this list haven't done the same),

it's still interesting and worthwhile to

consider some super-speculative

possibilities.

• For example, futurist John Smart has

suggested that human civilization is

increasingly migrating into smaller and

smaller increments of matter, energy,

space, and time (MEST). Eventually, he

argues, we'll take our collective intelligence

into a cosmological realm with the same

efficiency and density as a black hole —

where we'll essentially escape the universe.

Page 23: Future of Human Civilization

Quantifying The

Development of

Civilization

▪ Kardashev and Barrow Scale

• The Kardashev scale is a

method of measuring a

civilization's level of technological

advancement, based on the

amount of energy a civilization is

able to utilize.

• The scale has three designated

categories called Type I, II, and

III. A Type I civilization uses all

available resources on its home

planet, Type II harnesses all the

energy of its star, and Type III of

its galaxy.

Page 24: Future of Human Civilization

Quantifying The

Development of

Civilization

▪ Kardashev and Barrow Scale

• The Barrow Scale is a method of

measuring a civilization's level of

technological advancement, based

on the scale of objects we can

manipulate. i.e. Measurement of

Miniaturization.

• It starts from Humans being able to

manipulate things similar to their

scale and somewhere midway is

human’s ability to manipulate atoms.

• It ends with the Planck constant

where civilization are able to

manipulate space and time’s

structure.

Page 25: Future of Human Civilization

The end?