1. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change LtdFuture of Global Health and Medical Technology 2020-2030

2. 2 3. Everyhealth trendwill impactallother healthtrends 4. Cloud Nanotech Mobile Biotech Genes + Cells Digital Connect Atoms Converging - Combinations 5. Expectcompe55on betweenpharma, biotech,medtech andinfotechin ndinganswersto majorcondi5ons 6. ONEWORD willdrivethe futureofhealth 7. The future is about EMOTION 8. 8 ImpactofDigitalWorld 9. 10. Demographics willbegreatest predictorof futuredemand 11. 1 billion children alive today 12. >40%WDPby2015 IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity 13. Growthinglobal healthspendwillbe drivenbygrowthof middleclassin emergingna5ons 14. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 15. Megacities mean greater risks of viral epidemics like Ebola with global impact 16. ! 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years 17. Europe Dying ! 4 couples to produce single great-grand child ! S Korea children per couple fell from 6 to 1.2 - 1950-2000 18. Title Text Body Level One Body Level Two Body Level Three Body Level Four Body Level Five 19. >65%ofhealth spendwillbe onpeople >65yearsold 20. ChronicCondi5onsMul5pleNeeds 100millionAmericanshavechroniccondi5ons 80%ofhealthspending 88%ofallprescrip5ons 70%ofphysicianvisits 66%Medicarecost=peoplewith5+condi5ons AlmostallcausedbypeoplegeQngolder 21. Expectmajorglobal demandforpreven5onand treatmentforcancer,heart, brain,chronicwounds, infec5ons,infer5lity, arthri5sanddiabetes 22. Pharma Companies WILLndnew blockbusterse.g. Alzheimers/Obesity 23. AlzheimerscommonestcauseofdeathinUKwomen 2010-2050demen5a 24. 1in3babiesinNewYorkwilldevelop adult-typediabetes-cost$100bnayear 25. FutureofHospitals 26. Be`erimaging willtransform diagnosisand treatment 27. 31 28. Cloud Processing 29. Positron emission tomography Magnetic nuclear resonance 30. Imaging and Robotics 31. Micro-surgery willalso transform hospitalcare 32. $75bn endoscopy market by 2022 ($23bn 2010) 33. 125,000 stents or carotid surgery a year in US 34. Lengthof hospitalstay willfallrapidly 35. HomeCarewill growveryfast especiallyfor oldpeople 36. Wearable HealthDevices willbealmost universal 37. Home Tele-Monitoring 38. Mostpa5ents willknowmore thantheir physiciansabout theircondi5on 39. Search: know more than your doctor ! 40. ! ! Diabetes, congestive heart failure, obstructive pulmonary 2.2 million at home> $22bn by 2015Mobile telephony 41. Biotechwill drivemost pharma innova5on 42. Food moth larva silk gland ! ! Fat cells Cuticular 43. Mouse Retina 44. coatings and robots 45. Build Nanotech Robots as Biotech Therapies 46. Adenovirus contains Math1 gene Turns young ear cells into hair cells Inject virus particles into inner ear New hair cells grow near Organ of Corti! Research in Guinea Pigs Cure for Deafness ? 47. Confidential HSV1causescoldsores. Whenengineeredas Seprehvir(HSV-1716),itis harmlesstohealthy@ssue. Oncolytic viruses Infect and kill cancer tumour cells No damage to healthy tissue Evidence of impact in clinical trials Able to deliver new genes into cancer cells Micro-dose chemo, micro-dose radiotherapy Viruses to cure cancer 48. ElectronicMedical Recordswillmean be`erdecisions usingBigData 49. ! ! ! Product scanning means safety ! Computer-aided decisions save lives and time 50. Ottawa Hospital, Ontario - 3000 ipads Mayo Clinic - 2000 ipads ! 51. Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes That's a data explosion of 44x in ! Big Data 52. Fluidics Biochemistry Semiconductors Genetics Mathematics Immunology Robotics Read genome in 2 hours for $5,000 53. Genescreening willdominate disease preven5on 54. Genes for old age, speech, memory, criminality, depression, obesity and stable relationships 55. Genetic Prophecy 56. OrganRepair willberou5ne usingowncells 57. Stem Cells 58. Pigs teeth grown inside rats Mice grow new teeth from nerve cells / gum tissue Grow New Teeth 59. Repair of heart, retina, brain or spinal cord using adult stem cells Repair Heart / Brain 60. Competition in spinal cord damage from chips implanted into brain 61. New insulin cells in capsules to protect from immune system Repair Pancreas to treat diabetes 62. 84 Competition from implanted devices containing insulin 63. Print Elastomere 64. We can print layers of living cells.... 65. Print New Skin (Lexmar) 66. Lifeexpectancyin mostna5onswill increasebyfar morethan1week everymonth 67. Performance Shift in retail health care from health treatment to life enhancement 68. Want to look better 69. may be Want to think better...... 20%studentsinUSusememory- enhancingdrugstopasstheirexams 70. An5-Ageingwill beaglobal obsession-with rapidprogress 71. Can we stop ageing ? 72. 7mechanismsofageinginanimalandhumancells Celllossoratrophywithoutreplacement Oncogenicnuclearmuta5onsandepimuta5ons Mitochondrialmuta5ons Cellsenescence(deathresistant) Intra-cellularjunk Extra-cellularjunk(aectscells) Randomextra-cellularcross-linking 73. Worn out Mitochondria Energy Boost R-alpha-lipoic acidAcetyl-L-carnitine 74. Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales? Low blood pressure and total body lift ! ! ! ! ! ! Alteon 75. Monkeysondietlivelonger APer20years-80%alivev50%onnormalcalories Lesscancer,diabetes,heartdisease,strokes,braindecay 99 76. Slow or no ageing is a reality Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales ! No signs of getting old Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years Some animals do not age in normal way 77. Manyhealth costswillfallper treatmentwhile totalspending willrise 78. PatentExpirycutscost 3000CanadianPharmaPatents2003-11 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 24%healthinsurancecostsinSKoreaaredrugs 79. Fasterhealingwithmedtech 80. Adenoviral human telomerase reverse transcriptase 81. Fundingof HealthCarewill beverysensi5ve poli5calissue 82. Ra5oningof healthcarewill beseenin everyna5on 83. Ra5oningallgovernment Healthcompeteswith.... Special5escompete Diseases/Pa5entgroups Treatmentmethods Greatestimpactforgreatestnumber Compe55on 84. Transurethralresec5on Laserdestruc5on Microwavedestruc5on Heatdestruc5on DaVincirobot Compe55on 85. Pa5entcampaigns/Google Legal/ITlinkeddecisions Financialincen5ves Pa5entexperience/qualitylife Localskills/experience Appropriateinfrastructure Impact onra5oning 86. Expectrapidgrowth globallyinprivate medicalcare,health insuranceand medicaltourism 87. 1millionmedicaltouristsby2020 inSKorea-upfrom250,000ayear 88. Expectmanynew ethicalchallengese.g. beginningandendof life,dataprivacy,who ownsgenes,gene5c discrimina5on 89. Oneofgreatest ethicalchallengeswill beimprovingaccess tohealthcarein poorestna5ons 90. 3 mothers die in every 200 births in Central African Republic 1 in 10 women die in childbirth in some parts of Northern Mozambique 91. 117 1.8 million small children die every year because of dirty water supplies 92. In a global village, every local health problem can have a global impact - so expect more global health initiatives 93. ! ! Crea5ngaBe`erWorld Expectrapidinnova5oninmedical technologywithmanystartupsandhealth productslaunchedbytechnologygiants- withmajorinvestmentinSKorea 94. globalchange.com - slides and videos Future of Health Care