Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

Take Hold of the FutureKey trends in Textiles and Retail

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� Soriana, Cencosud, Casino (CBD, Exito), Carrefour and Wal-Mart

 

Future of textiles is about

SPEED

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Shale gas 33% US supplies

3.3m US jobs$468bn pa + more oil

produced than Saudi by 2020

200 years global supplyUp from 60 years in 5 years

�30 million acres lost

�EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food

30% US grain burnt in cars

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30% US grain now burnt in vehiclesBiofuels link energy and land / food prices

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WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  

US  GDP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  

EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  

Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  

>40%  WDP  by  2015�IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity

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Future of textiles is about

EMOTION

US consumers willing to pay more for 100% cotton

Telling a simple 10,000 year old story: Grown from land and will return to the land - absorbs moisture, breaths, feels good.

100% renewable, natural, biodegradeable. Huge improvements in land use, less water, less pesticides. 100 million farming

families depend on cotton - in 80 nations

Future of textiles is aboutDEMOGRAPHICS

1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years

Europe Dying 4 couples to produce singlegreat-grand child

0-14 years old EU 15% : Turkey 26%>65 years old EU 18% : Turkey 7%

75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by  those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women

Future of textiles is aboutEMERGING MARKETS

300 million move to cities in China and475 million to cities in Africa by 2030

Growth of Middle Class in Africa250m people - $2 trillion by 2040

Emerging Middle Class Love Cotton

Cotton consumption (m of tons) will be dominated by emerging markets

Cotton in emerging markets: 96% mill use, 97% imports, 81% production, 52% exports

Winding down of huge China stocks of cotton

Future of textiles is about SCALE

In  many  EU  naOons,  up  to  70%  of  retail  spending  is  in  <8  companies

Future of textiles is about INNOVATION

Future of textiles is about MOBILE

e-­‐commerce  will  hit  $1.5  trillion  in  201412%  of  all  retail  in  UK

Mobile Retail50% of all UK online sales are using mobile

Mobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013Mobile influenced 72% of retail sales in Brazil in 2013

1  trillion  pages    a                            month

>  200  million  mobile  payments>  70%  in  Africa    >  $160bn  

• Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers• $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP

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LocaOon  MarkeOngis  next

BIG  THING

Future of textiles is about Internet of Things

90% all global data generated in last 2 years

Big Data

Future of textiles is aboutFusion of Online / Offline

Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU

1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com  items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)

Big  Returnshome  delivery  -­‐  sample  dresses  in  every  size  -­‐  up  to  6  out  of  7  clothing  

items  returned

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3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries

Gold  standard:10am  orders  for  3pm  Delivery

10am orders for 3pm Delivery

Future of textiles is aboutSUSTAINABILITY and ETHICS

What is Sustainable Cotton ? •Be$er  use  of  land,  water,  transport,  energy,  labour  force•Benefit  to  environment,  communi;es  and  future  world

Double cotton production per acre since 1960s Impact of transgenic cotton on yields

Synthetic textiles - industrial oil-based product

•In  the  UK,  sales  of  Fairtrade  products  in  2012  reached  £1.5•78  per  cent  of  consumers  recognise  the  FAIRTRADE  Mark•One  in  every  three  bananas  sold•44  per  cent  of  bagged  sugar  sold•25  per  cent  of  all  roast  and  ground  retail  coffee  •Fairtrade  products  are  now  sold  in  more  than  125  countries•FAIRTRADE  logo  most  widely-­‐recognised  ethical  label  globally

Fair Trade Food Sales up 18% pa

Organic v Fair Trade Bananas

Supply Chain - Cotton Initiative - Cotton Made in Africa

Child Labour

PartnershipGreat  industry  examples  of  NGO  acOvists  as  

senior  policy  advisorsKey  supply  chain  partnerships

Delivery  Timing  -­‐  AdapaOon  -­‐  InnovaOon  IntegraOon  -­‐  CollaboraOon  -­‐  Accountability    

Transparency  -­‐  Sustainability

Future of textiles is aboutEMOTION + SPEEDDEMOGRAPHICS

EMERGING MARKETSINNOVATION

SCALE + MOBILEFUSION OF ONLINE / OFFLINE

INTERNET OF THINGSSUSTAINABILITY and ETHICS

•Individuals•Families•Farmers•Workers•Shareholders•Communi4es•Wide  World

Clothing  for  a  Be`er  World

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

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