future land cover change and forests - global challenges - bioenergy versus deforestation

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Future Land Cover Change and Forests - Global Challenges - Bioenergy versus Deforestation Florian Kraxner E.-M. Nordström, P. Havlík, M. Obersteiner, et al. +>30 collaborators Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM) @ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria The 3 rd Global Forest Carbon Working Group Meeting “Future of Global Forests” 27-29 May 2013 IIASA, Austria

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Future Land Cover Change and Forests - Global Challenges - Bioenergy versus Deforestation. Florian Kraxner E.-M. Nordström , P . Havlík , M . Obersteiner, e t al. +>30 collaborators Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM) @ - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Future Land Cover Change and Forests

- Global Challenges - Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Florian KraxnerE.-M. Nordström, P. Havlík, M. Obersteiner, et al.

+>30 collaborators

Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM) @International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria

The 3rd Global Forest Carbon Working Group Meeting“Future of Global Forests”

27-29 May 2013IIASA, Austria

Page 2: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Sustainable bioenergy feedstock- global scenarios and outlook

Florian Kraxner, E.-M. Nordström, P. Havlík, M. Obersteiner, et al.

Ecosystems Services and Management Program, IIASA

Bio-energy and CCS (BECCS): Options for Brazil, 13-14 June 2013, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Page 3: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

ESM’s Organizational Structure

Earth Observation Systems (EOS) (Fritz/See)

Environmental Resources and Development

(ERD)(Havlik/ Mosnier/Valin)

Met

hods

for E

cono

mic

Dec

ision

–Mak

ing

unde

r U

ncer

tain

ty (

MED

U)

(Kha

baro

v/Fu

ss)

Policy and Science Interface (PSI) (Kraxner/Boettcher)

ESM Lead / Management (MGT)(Obersteiner/Kraxner)

Agro-Environmental Systems (AES) (v.d.Velde/Balkovic)

Forest Ecosystems

Management (FEM) (Forsell)

Page 4: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

ESM’s Integrated Modeling Cluster

Page 5: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Modeling Biomass Supply at Global Scale – An Integrated Modeling Approach

Source: IIASA (2011)

1

3

2

Page 6: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

G4M

Page 7: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Age / Max Age

Tota

l Cab

on P

rodu

ctio

n / M

axim

um C

arbo

n P

rodu

ctio

n

-0.1-0.3-0.5-1-3-10

Biophysical forest model G4M

7, date

• Forest parameters from G4M– Provides annual harvestable wood (for sawn wood and

other wood)– Afforestation/Deforestation (NPV)– Forest management (rot/spec)– Forest Carbon stock

• Downscaling FAO country level information on above ground carbon in forests (FRA 2005) to 30 min grid (Kinderman et al., 2008)

– Harvesting costs– Forest area change– Spatially explicit

Page 8: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

• NPP• Population Density• Land cover• Agricultural suitability• Forest Biomass• Price level• Discount rate• Corruption• Product use

Source: Kindermann (2010)

Input Data Sets for the Global Forestry Model (G4M)

Page 9: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Forest Area Development A2r (2000 – 2035)

Source: IIASA, G4M (2008)

Page 10: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Deforestation 2050 under BAU

• Losses under BAU by 2050 will be 300-500 mio ha

• Tropical deforestation is considered the second largest source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, 2007) and is expected to remain a major emission source for the foreseeable future (MEA, 2005)

• the net effect of all deforestation is basically almost an increase of 20 per cent additional emissions from human activity going into the atmosphere and feeding into climate change.

• deforestation is to blame for about one and a half billion tons of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere every year for the past 15 years (GCP).

• To the left we see the picture of tropical Africa now and in 2100 under BAU (the more red the less tropical forest, www.geo-bene.eu/?q=node/1653)

Source: Kindermann et al. 2006

Page 11: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

EPIC

Page 12: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

EPIC

Rain, Snow, Chemicals

Subsurface FlowSurface

Flow

Below Root Zone

Evaporation and

Transpiration

• Weather• Hydrology• Erosion• Carbon sequestration• Crop growth• Crop rotations• Fertilization• Tillage• Irrigation• Drainage• Pesticide• Grazing• Manure

Processes

Major outputs:Crop yields, Environmental effects (e.g. soil carbon, )

20 crops (>75% of harvested area)4 management systems: High input, Low input, Irrigated, Subsistence

Cropland - EPICThe Biophysical Agriculture Model EPIC

Source: Schmid (2008)

Page 13: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

SOC

increase SOC0.18 t/ha/year

Crop Yield

DM Crop Yield -0.30 t/ha, or -7.9%

Source: INSEA, Schmid (2006)

EPIC – Management Change (conventional minimum tillage)

Page 14: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Source: Data: Tyndall, Afi Scenario, simulation model: EPIC (2011)

EPIC - Relative Difference in Means (2050/2100) in Wheat Yields

Page 15: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

GLOBIOM

Page 16: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Model general structure

19

• Partial equilibrium model on land use at global scale (endogenous prices balance supply and demand)– Agriculture: major agricultural crops and livestock products– Forestry: managed forests for sawnwood, and pulp and

paper production– Bioenergy: conventional crops and dedicated forest

plantations• Optimization of the social welfare (producer + consumer surplus)• Base year 2000, recursively dynamic (10 year periods)• Supply defined at the grid cell resolution• Demand defined at the level of 52 world regions• Main data source: FAOSTAT, complemented with bottom-up

sectoral models for production parameters

GLOBIOM

Page 17: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

GLOBIOM - Supply chainNatural Forests

Managed Forests

Short Rotation Tree Plantations

Cropland

Grassland

Other natural land

BioenergyBioethanol Biodiesel MethanolHeatElectricityBiogas

Wood productsSawn woodPulp

Livestock productsBeefLambPorkPoultryEggsMilk

CropsCornWheatCassavaPotatoesRapeseedetc…

LAND

USE

CHA

NGE

Wood Processing

Bioenergy- Processing

Livestock Feeding

Page 18: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

21

World partitioned in 52 regions

28 regions represented on the map+ Sub-saharan Africa split in Western Africa, Eastern Africa and Southern Africa (Congo Basin and South Africa already separated)

Page 19: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

GLOBIOM: Typical applications

• Agricultural prospective– Schneider et al. (2011) Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical

change on global food production and consumption. Agricultural Systems– Smith et al. (2010) Competition for land, Philosophical transactions– Applied scenarios such as Eastern Africa with CCAFS

• Deforestation– Mosnier et al. (2010) Modeling impacts of development trajectories on forest cover in

the Congo Basin– Living Forest Report – WWF (2011)

• Climate change mitigation– Valin et al. (2010) Climate change mitigation and food consumption patterns

• Biofuels– Fuss et al. (2011) A stochastic analysis of biofuel policies– Havlik et al. (2010) Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets.

Energy Policy– Mosnier et al. (2010) Direct and indirect trade effects of EU biofuel targets on global GHG

emissions• Trade and trade-off assessments• Direct and indirect water demand of feedstock/livestock production systems

Page 20: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Globally Consistent Assessment of Forest Development and Bioenergy…

Page 21: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Background

Global Future Energy Portfolios, 2000 – 2100 Source: modified after Azar et al., 2010

Page 22: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Cumulative biomass production (EJ/grid) for bioenergy between 2000 and 2100 at the energy price supplied by MESSAGE based on the revised IPCC SRES A2r scenario (country investment risk excluded).

Source: Rokityanskiy et al. 2006

Page 23: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Forest Area Development A2r (2000 – 2035)

Source: IIASA, G4M (2008)

Page 24: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Source: compiled from FAO 2005, 2001; CIESIN 2007, ATFS 2008; FSC 2008; PEFC 2008.

Kraxner et al., 2008

Certified area relative to managed forest area by countries

Forest Management Certification (Potentials)

Page 25: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Global BE Feedstock Scenarios – Definitions & Objectives

WWF, 2011

Objectives:a) to achieve a global perspective using an integrated

modeling approach; b) to frame the boundaries for lower scale assessments;

and c) to identify potential trade-offs to be considered in

future research.

Zero Net Deforestation and Degradation (ZNDD) means no net forest loss through deforestation and no net decline in forest quality through degradation.

Scenario name Description BAU ”Business as usual”: Projection of future development

in line with historical trends BE2010 As BAU but the production of bioenergy fixed at the

level in 2010 BEPlus Projection of bioenergy demand by 2050 as in the

100 per cent renewable energy vision by the Ecofys Energy Model

BEPlusRED As BEPlus but with target ”no net deforestation” (RED=Reducing Emissons from Deforestation)

BiodivRED Stricter biodiversity protection combined with target ‘no net deforestation’

Page 26: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Cumulative deforestation 2000-2050 caused by land-use change according to the different scenarios.

Global Deforestation Trends

• BEPlus similar to BAU• BE2010 on same high level because of unrestricted deforestation• RED keeps deforestation at present level

Page 27: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

• most of the loss of unmanaged forest takes place in the tropical areas of South America, Africa and Asia

Loss of pristine (unmanaged) forest as a proxy for BE production on Biodiversity

Cumulative loss of area of unmanaged forest 2000-2050 in different regions under the BAU scenario

Cumulative loss of area of unmanaged forest 2000-2050 in different regions under the BEPlus RED scenario

• the loss of unmanaged forest is not only considerably smaller but also more evenly distributed from a global perspective

Regional Effects by Adding BE, Biodiv, RED - Unmanaged Forest rel to BAU

Page 28: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

GHG emissions from total land use 2000-2050 under the different scenarios

GHG Emissions by Scenarios

• Under the BE2010 scenario, the bioenergy use is small compared to the other scenarios, and the GHG emissions are the highest, 8,091 Mt CO2/year. The GHG emissions are lower under the BAU and BEPlus scenarios, where the bioenergy use is more extensive.

• Lowest GHG emissions can be achieved under the RED scenarios

Page 29: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Water consumption for agriculture 2000-2050 under the different scenarios

Agricultural Water Demand by Scenarios

• All scenarios show increased demand• Lowest restriction on forest and biodiversity conservation show less water need• Higher restriction implies less land available for eg food production = intensification

Page 30: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

• The demand for bioenergy will be high and will increase competition for land• Bioenergy production is a significant but not the major driver of forest loss • Avoiding large-scale deforestation is possible, even under expanded bioenergy

production. • Unmanaged forest will be lost under all scenarios but under the RED scenarios

the loss is only half of the loss under the BAU scenario• GHG emissions may be substantially reduced by minimizing deforestation• Minimization of deforestation may have negative impacts on other natural

ecosystems• The more forest and biodiversity one would like to be conserved, the less land

will be available for food production• The more conservation and protection, the higher the need for optimization and

intensification• Various policy areas must be coordinated to ensure sustainable use of

resources• Future studies need to go into the details identified here

Summary & Discussion & Conclusions

Page 31: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

High hopes…

Page 32: Future Land Cover Change and Forests  - Global Challenges -  Bioenergy versus Deforestation

Contact

Florian Kraxner

Ecosystem Services and Management ProgramInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA Laxenburg, [email protected]://www.iiasa.ac.at

Paper contribuion:Florian Kraxner; Eva-Maria Nordström; et al. (2013). Global Bioenergy Scenarios - Future Forest Development, Land-Use Implications, and Trade-Offs. Biomass and Bioenergy (in press)