Future Internet Towards 2020 A Systemic Change Perspective

Hans Schaffers

Aalto University School of Economics , Centre of Knowledge and Innovation Research (CKIR)E-mail: hans.schaffers@aalto.fi

2nd FIA Roadmap Workshop 25.06.2012

The FIA Research Roadmap was built around four key questions1. What is changing (society,

technology)

2. What is the vision, what are the impacts

3. What are the challenges and gaps

4. What are the solutions and research needs

Takes wider view than technology, addresses socio-economic-business challenges

Covers FI research but also the research approaches and the innovation process

Limited involvement of communities and dialogue

How will the Roadmap be used, by whom, for what impact

Roadmapping opportunities and limitations Tool originally used in business

and research environments Management of research and

innovation Aims for planning of research

and technology development Not a forecast or prediction Links research, technologies and

objectives Does not explicitly address

systemic linkages Useful as a tool for establishing

dialogue, helps achieving consensus and stimulates debate in planning environment Source: Bmaps

Foresight and roadmapping

Strategic management of research, technology, innovation

Awareness, anticipating and preparing for futures and changes

Innovation capabilities and conditions Looking also at alternative futures and

scenarios Addresses complex systems and systemic

linkages; facilitating systems innovation Based on dialogue, participation;

supporting the actors Tools: scenarios, systems science,

dialogues and debates, Delphi surveys Roadmap as visualisation of foresight

exercise outcome

The Internet “ecosystem”

The Internet ecosystem comprises a variety of actors and communities that develop the Internet, make it work, and using it

• Technologists, engineers, architects, creatives, standards organisations• Global and local organisations e.g. managing addressing (ICANN)• Operators, vendors, developers• Internet users and co-creators• Policy and decision makers

The Internet ecosystem embodies and integrates interlinked developments

• Technological change • Business and industry change• Policy and regulatory change• Societal change and transformation

The ecosystemic nature of the Internet requires a different approach to preparing for alternative futures than roadmapping Source: ISOC

Internet ecosystem visualisations demonstrate different viewpoints

Infrastructure

Industry

Network

Social

Internet ecosystem and systemic change

Technological interplay, disruptive change

Technological interplay, disruptive change

Using and shaping the Internet

Using and shaping the Internet

Industry change, value networks, business models

Industry change, value networks, business models

Policy development, legal/regulatory change

Policy development, legal/regulatory change

Network technologies and architecturesCloud computingÍnternet of ThingsSmart devicesEngineering and experiment

Network technologies and architecturesCloud computingÍnternet of ThingsSmart devicesEngineering and experiment

Access regulationPrivacy, securityIdentityNet neutralityCompetition

Access regulationPrivacy, securityIdentityNet neutralityCompetition

Business strategiesResearch and innovationBusiness modelsValue networks

Business strategiesResearch and innovationBusiness modelsValue networks

Work and life, innovationCommunication, collaborationSocial networkingCriminalityCities and regions

Work and life, innovationCommunication, collaborationSocial networkingCriminalityCities and regions

Macro Socio-Technical Landscape

Multi-level perspective on systemic innovation

Source: Geels , Kemp, Rotmans a.o.

Future Internet ArchitectureOpen innovation

Standards opennessInternet value networks

Net neutralityPrivacy, security, identitySocietal uses of Internet

Green Internet

Future Internet ArchitectureOpen innovation

Standards opennessInternet value networks

Net neutralityPrivacy, security, identitySocietal uses of Internet

Green Internet

Drivers of systemic change: macro changes, niche developments, resolving of tussles …

Work and life, innovationCommunication, collaborationSocial networkingCriminalityCities and regions

Work and life, innovationCommunication, collaborationSocial networkingCriminalityCities and regions

Business strategiesResearch and innovationBusiness modelsValue networks

Business strategiesResearch and innovationBusiness modelsValue networks

Network technologiesCloud computingÍnternet of ThingsSmart devicesEngineering and experiment

Network technologiesCloud computingÍnternet of ThingsSmart devicesEngineering and experiment

Access regulationMarket regulation, competitionPrivacy, security, identityNet neutrality

Access regulationMarket regulation, competitionPrivacy, security, identityNet neutrality

For socio-economic tussles: see SESERV projectNiches and disruptive

technologiesExisting regimes vs drivers of change

Socio-technical debates and Internet futures

Short term Medium term Long term

Societal change and users

Industry and business models

Policy, regulatory development

Technological change

Research and innovation

Future Internet ArchitectureOpen innovation

Standards opennessInternet value networks

Net neutralityPrivacy, security, identitySocietal uses of Internet

Green Internet

Future Internet ArchitectureOpen innovation

Standards opennessInternet value networks

Net neutralityPrivacy, security, identitySocietal uses of Internet

Green Internet

1) Future Internet and smart cities

FIREBALL White Paper (2012)

Intel Industry clusters and

sectors

SmartHousing Districts

i-University

i-Science Parks and Incubators

i-Transporthubs

Intel CBDSmart

Port district

Developing towards a smarter city requires “systemic change”

An innovation roadmap is a tool for creating consensus and understanding about potential futures and about pathways towards these futures

Understanding smart city dynamic development as “systemic change” requires understanding of interplays and co-evolution regarding technology developments, human behaviours, policies and strategies

Living Labs, policy experiments may act as “niches” where opportunities are provided for limited scale innovation and learning (introduction, use, evaluation, modification -> wider scale adoption

Technologies for smart(er) cities

Technology area Main developments in relation to smart cities

Cloud computing Urban clouds reducing IT costs and providing platforms for small business applications and e-servicesVirtualization of physical spacesStandardisation of platforms and applications for smart cities

Real-world user interfaces, RFID

IoT sensor networks in combination with Web 2.0, social media, crowdsourcing providing opportunities for collective intelligenceUrban IoT platforms offering common framework for ambient sensor networks

Semantic web, Linked data, Ontologies

Open Data from various sources offer opportunities for advanced intelligence e.g. Detect patterns, generate alerts, visualize information, predict trendsSemantic Web enhances opportunity to merge different categories of dataEnables content and context fusion, immersive multi-sensory environments, location based context aware contentEnhanced opportunities for user involvement and user generate content

Foresight roadmap for Future Internet and smart cities (partial and preliminary)

Smart city strategies implementation prospects and hurdlesStrengths Opportunities• Cultural heritage, attractiveness •Development strategies, planning• Broadband network deployment•Major development initiatives

• Competitiveness of local clusters• Exploiting service innovation opportunities towards new business• Opportunities for local ICT sectors and entrepreneurship•Introducing participatory city planning

Weaknesses Threats• Top down orientation to planning•Lacking attention to concrete needs of citizens and SMEs• Digital gaps• Lacking orientation on entrepreneurship•Weak policy and funding instruments• Impact and benefits measurement

• Economic crisis, lack of resources• Vulnerable business models for sustainability of public sector initiatives• Low level of private investment in R&D and innovation• Weak institutional environments for technology and innovation

Smart cities challenges for next years

Networks of Future Internet testbed facilities and living labs within and across smart cities and regions may become the backbone of European innovation ecologies and value networks – Horizon 2020

Capabilities and resources, including experiment facilities , user oriented methodologies, service offerings and collaboration models enabling access and use of facilities and services should evolve

Smart Cities are environments to experiment technologies and applications, however the potential for business creation and entrepreneurship should be stimulated (e.g. DAIR, Canada)

Open innovation and citizen empowerment requires finding new balances between top-down steering and bottom-up initiative

Assessment of the impact and benefits of “smarter cities” in terms of value created for citizens. There is a lack of evidence showing impact, how can we achieve and measure the impact and value added of smart city initiatives?

2) Guiding the FIRE Ecosystem towards 2020

AmpliFIRE projectunder negotiation(FP7-ICT.1.6)

3) Internet and public safety

Final remarks

FIA Roadmap may adopt more explicitly a systemic innovation and change perspective

Addressing systemic issues of technology systems as socio-technical systems, including adoption bottlenecks

FIA Roadmap may focus more in-depth on specific issues or “subsystems”

It may turn into a more or less permanent foresight activity, building upon a community representing diverse interests regarding the future Internet

It might be a joint undertaking supported by various projects and programmes

Selected references

Benkler, Y (2006) The Wealth of Networks -> battle over institutional ecology of the Internet, legal and regulatory debates

Könöllä, T. (2007) Innovation Roadmap: Exploring Alternative Futures of Industrial Renewal -> applies transition concept to roadmapping

Geels, F. (2006) Major systems change through stepwise reconfiguration -> and other literature on “transition management”

FIA Roadmap (2011) ISOC (2010) The Internet Ecosystem FIREBALL White Paper (2012) www.fireball4smartcities.eu IFTF (2011) A Planet of Civic Laboratories SAFECITY project (FI PPP) SESERV project -> tussles. FIA Book 2011, 2012 have cases Oxford Internet Institute (2010), Towards a Future Internet