future employment trends jeff sachse wisconsin department of workforce development jim golembeski...
TRANSCRIPT
Future Employment Trends
Jeff SachseWisconsin Department of Workforce
DevelopmentJim Golembeski
Bay Area Workforce Development Board
2
ELDER NUMBERS GROW KIDS NUMBERS DON’T
Source: BEA, OEA
3Source: Federal Reserve Board, Data Download Program
POPULATION INCREASESWORKFORCE DOESN’T
AGING WORKFORCEAFFECTS “BLUE COLLAR” INDUSTRIES STRONGLY
Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau
Unemployment Rate x Highest Educational AttainmentAges 25+ - United States - Seasonally Adjusted
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Less Than a High School Diploma
High School Graduates
Some College or Associate Degree
Bachelor's Degree and Higher
EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT STEADIER WORK
THE SO-CALLED “COLLEGE WAGE PREMIUM”INCREASES WITH EMPLOYMENT SECURITY
Growing Wisconsin’s Talent Pool
• A Competitive Wisconsin • BE BOLD initiative
Where and How We Work Is Changing
There Are Not Enough Skilled Workers in the U.S.
There Are Not Enough Skilled Workers in Wisconsin
People Are Making Different Choices
Technology is Changing How and When We Work
Customers Are More Sophisticated
• Employees old enough to retire now outnumber teen workers for the first time in 60 years
• In the US 10,000 workers reach age 65 daily
• By 2020, more than 36% of the country’s population will be older than 65
What’s ChangedThere Are Not Enough Skilled Workers in the U.S.The Demographic Shift
In Wisconsin:•Only 17.5% of small companies and 31% of large companies report that they have world-class, innovation talent. 66% report that they lack the talent to drive global engagement into the next decade. (Source: Next Generation Wisconsin Manufacturing)
•Approximately 1 in 10 jobs for key economic sectors go unfilled today in the following skills clusters :
• Accounting & Fin. Analysis: 9%
• Mechanical Engineering: 11%
• Metal Manufacturing: 12%
(Source: ManpowerGroup study)
What’s ChangedThe Talent Shortage
Source: Confronting the Talent Crunch: A ManpowerGroup White Paper
And Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, August 29, 2012
Demand for skill
Supply of skill
Lack of resources creates tension on the high-demand skills market: Increases the cost of business
Over-supply of low or wrongly skilled resources generates unemployment: Reduces public sector income and increases costs for assistance
34,000-60,000 Open Jobs
75,000UI C
laimants
The Mismatch: Supply/Demand Changes are Driving a Significant Mismatch
What’s Changed
The BE BOLD 2 Supply/Demand Study
Projected Openings 2010-2020 by Occupation Group
40,790
50,260
25,250
14,340
9,290
11,720
4,110
51,580
20,020
64,730
32,280
20,440
128,310
31,860
48,480
112,670
139,190
1,370
42,020
35,830
80,160
77,020
Management occupations
Business & f inancial operations occupations
Computer & mathematical occupations
Architecture & engineering occupations
Life, physical, & social science occupations
Community & social services occupations
Legal occupations
Education, training, & library occupations
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, & media occupations
Healthcare practitioners & technical occupations
Healthcare support occupations
Protective service occupations
Food preparation & serving related occupations
Building & grounds cleaning & maintenance occupations
Personal care & service occupations
Sales & related occupations
Office & administrative support occupations
Farming, f ishing, & forestry occupations
Construction & extraction occupations
Installation, maintenance, & repair occupations
Production occupations
Transportation & material moving occupations
Grow th Openings
Replace-ment Openings
(labels ref lect total openings)
Source: WI DWD, Office of Economic Advisors, Projections (608) 267-7314 or (608) 267-9607.
Any Questions?
Jeffrey Sachse
Regional Economist – Northeast Wisconsin
Office of Economic Advisors
(920) 448-5268
Jim Golembeski
Executive Director
Bay Area Workforce Development Board
(920) 431-4102