AXA Chair Conference, London June 2013

The future of agriculture in a changing world

The future of

agriculture in a changing

worldAndy Jarvis

AXA Chair Launch Workshop in Biosphere and Climate Impacts

The Challenge

The concentration of GHGs is rising

Long-term implications

for the climate and for crop suitability

Historical impacts on food security

% Yield impact for wheat

Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.

Lobell et al (2011)

No matter what, change is upon us

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Crop suitability is changing

In order to meet global demands, we

will need

60-70% more food

by 2050.

Food security is at risk

Source: Erb et al. (2007)

•30-45% of earth’s terrestrial surface is pasture

- 80% of all agricultural land

•1/3 arable land used for feed crop production

•70% of previously forested land in the Amazon = pasture

3 Livestock and GHG

Arable land per person will decrease

Year• World Population• Arable land

1950• 2,500,000,000• 0.52 ha

20006,1000,000• 0.25 ha

20509,000,000• 0.16 ha

The arable land on the earth is ~3% or 1.5 billion ha

Livestock products: Developing countries are hungry for more.

•Growth in animal product consumption has increased more than any other commodity group.1

•Greatest increases in S and SE Asia, Latin America.

-Overall meat consumption in China has quadrupled since 1980 to 119 lbs/person/yr. 2

•Economic and population growth, rising per capita incomes, urbanizationPhoto by: CGIAR

Land requirements for food depend on three factors:

1) Population numbers2) Type of diet

3) Food output per unit land

Kastner et al. 2012

•Developed countries: high-energy diets, but low pop. growth, high output efficiency.

•Developing countries: low-energy diets, offset by high pop. growth, low efficiency.

Will dietary change override population growth as the major driver behind land requirements?

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1

Exacerbating the yield gap

From Licker et al, 2010

Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers (e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap

Exacerbating the yield gap

Climate change will likely

pose additional difficulties

for already resource-poor

farmers (i.e., many in

Africa), thereby increasing

the yield gap

Message 1:In the coming decades, climate

change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security,

and rural livelihoods.

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Crop suitability is changing

CO2 Fertilisation

Rosenthal et al. (2012) report ~100 % increases in root yield under elevated CO2

Further evidence of the crop’s potential under climate change

Under optimal management

Agriculture responsible for 19-29% Part of the problem, natural source for solutions too

020406080

100120140160180200

Pig Poultry Beef Milk Eggs

kg C

O2

eq/k

g an

imal

pro

tein

•Livestock alone is 10-18%3 of all global anthropogenic GHG

-Other estimates as high as 51%4,5

•Range arises from methodological differences

-Inventories vs. life cycle assessments, Attribution of land use to livestock, Omissions, misallocations

2 Livestock and GHG

Source: de Vries and de Boer (2009)

Range of GHG intensities for livestock commodities

•Highest variation occurs for beef, due to variety of production systems.

•Ruminants require more fossil energy use, emit more CH4 per animal.6

Message 2:With new challenges also come

new opportunities.

Can we breed our way out of the problem?

Why do we need breeding?• For starters, we have novel climates: 30% of the

world will experience novel combinations of climate

And also non-linear responses of crops to climates

•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed to temperatures >30˚C

•In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree

Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS

Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0066428

Can we breed our way out of the problem?

Cassava

What should we breed for?

Current suitability

Current climatic constraint

What will this mean for cassava?

The Rambo root!

But what about other staples?

The Rambo root versus Mr. Bean

Cassava suitability change compared with other staples

• Cassava consistently outperforms other staples in terms of changes in suitability

Cassava’s role as a substitution crop

• Cassava as a fallback crop under an uncertain climate (risk management)

• Cassava as the substitution crop for other staples more sensitive to heat and drought

• Cassava as a source of increasing food and nutritional security across the continent

• A rare positive story for a climate change researcher

Heat and drought?

Not for cassavaDrought tolerance will push adaptation up into SahelBig gains also from cold tolerance – despite climate change, this continues to be the major constraint globally

Drought and heat?

Consideration in breeding for CC

• Inherent uncertainty in futures, BUT, temperatures will increase, rainfall likely to change, greater variability in many parts of the world

• Climate affects multiple factors, all need to be considered:– Growing season timing, length of growing season– Pests and disease patterns (big gap in knowledge)– Crop distribution, affecting other non-climate related

traits and constraints – e.g. soil-related constraints– Crop physiology, crop development phases speed up etc.

Message 3:Different breeding challenges for

different crops, in different countries – no silver bullet!

A wicked problem

Let’s talk about Wicked Solutionswick·ed  (w k d)adj. wick·ed·er, wick·ed·est1. Evil by nature and in practice: "this wicked man Hitler, the repository and embodiment of many forms of soul-destroying hatred"(Winston S. Churchill).2. Playfully malicious or mischievous: a wicked prank; a critic's wicked wit.3. Severe and distressing: a wicked cough; a wicked gash; wicked driving conditions.4. Highly offensive; obnoxious: a wicked stench.5. Slang Strikingly good, effective, or skillful

Yield potential, AND yield gap

Asian rice vs. African rice

Asian non-rice vs. African non-rice

From Otsukaa and Kijimab, 2010

Transformation in agriculture

Decision making in spite of uncertainty

Vermeulen et al. (2013)

Signal-to-noise ratio

Tim

e

Low emissions

High emissions

Incremental Systemic Transformative

t1

Current variability

t3

t2

t4

Top-down approaches particularly important

Transition in types of adaptation

Seasonal forecasting

(Case 4)Stakeholder led (Case 1)

Stakeholder led (Case 2)Altitudinal

gradients (Case 3)

Crop suitability (Case 4)

Bottom-up approaches particularly important

Suitability in Cauca

• Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050

• The Cauca case: reduced coffeee growing area and changes in geographic distribution. Some new opportunities.

MECETA

No regretTransformational

Change

Bottom-upIncremental Adaptation

High certainty

Transformational Change

Adaptation entry points in maize-bean systems

Scalable climate smart technologies….

Getting to grips with climate adaptation: The right choices

Evaluating varietal adaptation V

ar. C

ario

ca

Var

. Cal

ima

Var

. Jam

apa

Likely yield with different planting dates

Modelling potential losses from extreme events with different planting dates

Benefits of potential adaptation options: conservation agriculture

% y

ield

loss

% water deficit

Playing out transformative adaptationin CCAFS benchmark sites in East AfricaWhen, where, how and with whom?

Where do we work?

CCAFS sites Main crops Main livestock (forages)

Borana(ET) Maize (96.6%)

Beans (86.4%)

Wheat (33.1%)

Beef cattle (93.2%)

Goats (77.8%)

Nyando (KE) Maize (99.2%)

Sorghum (73.3%)

Beans (34.4%)

Goats (66.9%)

Chicken/hens (61.2%)

Usambara (TZ) Maize (87.1%)

Beans (75%)

Tomatoes (29%)

Chicken/hens (82.1%)

Dairy cows (56.4%)

Albertine Rift (UG) Cassava (78.6%)

Beans (68.4%)

Sweet potatoes (59.8%)

Chicken/hens (82.5%)

Pigs (63.1%)

Climate smart agriculture: tackling adoption head on

Rash model (Campell, 1963): Attitude towards change = number + difficulty of change made

Silvopastoral systems:A mini-revolution in Colombia

and Central AmericaPiedemonte llanero

Estado inicial: Julio 17, 2007

Agosto 15, 2008

13 meses

Octubre 22, 2008

15 meses

Time

Upt

ake

of s

usta

inab

le a

gric

ultu

ral p

racti

ces

Innovation / Identification of practices

Pre-investment (eg, development funds, climate finance)

Implementation at scale / Establishment of institutions

Demonstration of agro-economic and sustainability potential

Policy shifts and large-scale changes in practices, livelihoods and environmental impacts

Demonstration of financial / commercial viability and sustainability outcomes

1 January 2013

Leb by

Climate smart villages: Key agricultural activities for managing risks

Local implementation grounded in local realities

Clim

ate

resi

lienc

e

Baseline

Adapted technologies

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management+

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management+

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts+

Enabling environment

NAPs and NAMAs

Climate smartness

Lushoto Mbuzii Yamba

Morogoro

Mwitikilwa

Nyombo

Njombe

Mbinga

Kinole

FOTF in Tanzania

Analogue study Tour Villages visited Starting point

Sepukila Village: -Matengo pits: Traditional soil and water conservation technique-Coffee nursery-StovesMasasi Village:-Water source-Fish pond-BiogasMtama Village: - Bee keeping

-Weather station visit

- Avocado trial

-Banana varieties trial

- Maize fertility mngt

-Market value chain social enterprise visit- Input supply Stockists

-Weather station visit - Bean trial visit- Tree nursery visit

- SACCOS

visit

- Market

visit

Farms of the futureJourney to Yamba’s plausible futures

Wicked solutions for climate smart agriculture

• No matter what, impacts of climate change will be profound• Climate just one driver of global change in agriculture• Opportunities for re-thinking food systems, increasing efficiency• …..but no silver bullet• Wicked solutions exist, but we need to think about new

institutional arrangements, new policies, and new investment to • Science can contribute new solutions, methods for targetting,

improved understanding of priorities• The challenge is very big – reducing emissions from agriculture,

ensuring adaptation

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