future agenda - the world in 2025 - opportunities for lebanon - beirut 03 06 15

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  • The World in 2025 Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions Poten1al Opportuni1es for Lebanon | 3 June 2016 The worlds leading open foresight program

  • This Talk Covers Three Topics

    The World in 2025 - Insights from 120 Discussions Some Global Ques1ons about the Middle East Poten1al Opportuni1es for Lebanon

  • The World in 2025 | Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions

  • Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the worlds largest open foresight program

    that accesses mul0ple views of the next decade so we can all be beGer informed and s0mulate innova0on.

  • Looking Forwards Organisa0ons increasingly want to iden0fy and understand

    both the an0cipated and unexpected changes so that they can be beGer prepared for the future.

  • Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The second version of the Future Agenda program took place

    during 2015 and has been addressing 24 topics via 120 events in 45 ci0es in 35 countries in partnership with 50 core hosts.

    Ci0es

    Educa0on

    Learning

    Transport

    Collabora0on

    Energy

    Loyalty

    Travel

    Company

    Faith

    Payments

    Water

    Connec0vity

    Food

    Privacy

    Wealth

    Currency

    Government

    Resources

    Work

    Ageing

    Data

    Health

    Trade

  • Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in

    25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-to-face interac0on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion.

    Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS

    Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 24 TOPICS 35 COUNTRIES 120 WORKSHOPS 5000 ORGANISATIONS

  • Everything Connected Over 1 trillion sensors are connected to mul0ple networks: everything that can benefit from a connec0on has one. We deliver 10,000x more data 100x more effec0vely but are concerned about the security of the informa0on that flows.

  • Imbalanced Popula1on Growth A growing popula0on adds another billion people but it is also rapidly ageing: a child born next year will live 6 months longer than one born today. While migra0on helps to rebalance, increasing dependency ra0os challenge many.

  • ShiUing Power and Influence The centre of gravity of economic power con0nues shi_ing eastwards, back to where it was 200 years ago. Recent superpowers seek to moderate the pace of change but the reali0es of popula0on and resource loca0ons are immoveable.

  • Affordable Healthcare The escala0ng cost of healthcare is further stressed by the need to support the old and the chronically ill. Spending 20% of GDP on healthcare is seen as unsustainable so hard decisions are taken around budgets and priori0es.

  • Air Quality Rising air pollu0on in many ci0es is killing people and becomes a visible catalyst for changing mind-sets and policies across

    health, energy, transporta0on and urban design.

  • Food Waste 30-50% of our food is wasted either in the supply chain or in consump0on and could feed another 3 billion. Op0mising distribu0on and storage in developing countries and enabling beGer consumer informa0on in others could solve this.

  • Intra City Collabora1on Increasing compe00on between ci0es overrides na0onal boundaries and drives

    change. They compete to aGract the best but also collaborate to avoid the downside of success over-crowding, under-resourcing and pollu0on.

  • Urban Obesity Mass urbanisa0on, reduced ac0vity and poor diets are accelera0ng the rise of obesity. Levels of obesity in most ci0es are growing fast and the associated healthcare burden will soon account for 5% of global GDP.

  • The Value of Data As organisa0ons try to retain as much informa0on about their customers as possible, data becomes a currency with a value and a price. It therefore

    requires a marketplace where anything that is informa0on is represented.

  • The Changing Nature of Privacy As privacy is a public issue, more interna0onal frameworks seek to govern the Internet, protect the vulnerable and secure personal data: The balance between

    protec0on, security, privacy and public good is increasingly poli0cal.

  • Ethical Machines Automa0on spreads beyond trading and managing systemic risk. As we approach technology singularity, autonomous robots and

    smarter algorithms make ethical judgments that impact life or death.

  • Access to Transport The widespread need for individuals to travel short distances becomes a key feature of urban design and regenera0on. Planners use transport

    infrastructure to influence social change and lower carbon living.

  • Capitalism Challenge Unable to shake issues like inequality, capitalist socie0es face cries for change, structural challenges and technology enabled freedoms. Together these re-write

    the rules and propose a collabora0ve landscape of all working together.

  • Educa1on Revolu1on Broader access to improved educa0on acts as a major catalyst for

    empowerment, sustained economic growth, overcoming inequality and reducing conflict. We need an educa0on system fit for the digital revolu0on.

  • Mass Engagement As the public voice becomes easier to access and harder to suppress, leaders seek to engage to create, develop, secure and maintain legi0macy for their

    ini0a0ves and policies so further reducing their hierarchical power.

  • Accelera1ng Displacement Climate change, conflict, resource shortages, inequality and poli0cal elites unable or unwilling to bring about necessary change all trigger unprecedented migra0on to the North. Over the next 50 years, as many as 1 billion people could be on the move.

  • Basic Sanita1on Poor sanita0on con0nues to impact public health and restrict social progress,

    par0cularly for women. Governments and donor organisa0ons priori0se measurement, educa0on and innova0on in a bid to drive change.

  • Ci1zen-Centric Ci1es Successful ci0es will be designed around the needs and desires of increasingly empowered and enabled ci0zens - who are expec0ng personalized services from the organisa0ons that serve them.

  • Flooded Ci1es The vast majority of our ci0es are not prepared for flooding. Many districts

    and households can no longer get flood insurance and are in jeopardy. Its going to get worse before it gets beGer.

  • Plas1c Oceans There are increasing high levels of man-made pollu0on in many of the worlds seas and liGle actually disappears.

    By 2050 there will be more plas0c than fish in the worlds oceans.

  • Some1mes Nomads Elec0ve migra0on, cheap travel, interna0onal knowledge sharing and

    increasingly transient working models create connected nomads who mix the tradi0ons of home with the values and customs of their host loca0on.

  • Working Longer People are having to work for longer to support longer re0rements.

    Flexible working prac0ces and policies are emerging, but some employers con0nue to remain ambivalent about older workers.

  • Africa Growth With a land mass bigger than India, China, the US and Europe combined, few doubt the scale of the African con0nent and its resources. However, un0l

    recently, only some have seen it as the growth market that it is fast becoming.

  • Declining Government Influence Na0onal governments ability to lead change comes under greater pressure from both above and below - mul0na0onal organisa0ons increasingly set the rules while ci0zens trust and support local and network based ac0ons.

  • Eco-Civilisa1on Over the past 40 years China has grown apace, mostly without concern for

    long-term environmental impacts. However, now faced with major challenges, a bright light of sustainable development is emerging.

  • Digital Money Cash con0nues to be gradually replaced by digital money, providing

    consumers with more convenience and choice and organisa0ons with lower cost transac0ons. Wider adop0on enables new offers to proliferate.

  • Skills Concentra1ons The need to build and develop capabili0es becomes increasingly challenging for

    companies and workers alike. Those who benefit from the high-skill reward opportuni0es remain a select group who move ahead of the urban pack.

  • Speed to Scale Greater global connec0vity, growing consumer wealth and broader reach all combine to accelerate the 0me to 1bn customers and a $10bn valua0on for start-ups and new corporate ventures alike.

  • Some Global Ques1ons about the Middle East

  • Oil Price Dependency The link of GDP to oil price across the Middle East is widely recognised

    and so, as more alterna0ve energy sources come on-line, the impact of sustained low global oil prices on overall economic growth is a common ques0on.

  • US Withdrawal Especially as the presiden0al elec0on draws closer, with the US no longer an energy importer some are seeing a future where it is also no longer the global policeman: The US withdraws back to an Atlan0c / Pacific focus, leaving regional vacuums to fill.

  • Turkey As Regional Superpower While its poli0cal rela0onships with the EU and Russia are in flux, Turkeys growing economic impact is widely recognised. Although there is some uncertainty around

    short term direc0on, its growing popula0on and future trading influence are assumed.

  • Rising Youth Unemployment With unemployment rates over 50% in some na0ons, access to work

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