funding gap analysis - asian development bank · funding gap analysis considers the time dimension...

1 CONFIDENTIAL ©2014 AIR WORLDWIDE

ADB Bangladesh Capacity Building for

Disaster Risk Finance Project:

Funding Gap Analysis

Presenter: Dr. C. Marc Ramirez

Prepared by: Prof. Mehmet Ulubasuglo

The views expressed in this report/presentation are the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the source, originality, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any statement, information, data, finding, interpretation, advice, opinion, or view presented, nor does it make any representation concerning the same.


- Involves collection of data on national revenue and expenditure, especially as associated with disasters

- Based on the quantitative risk assessment of the selected peril, the funding gap analysis considers the time dimension and stated intention of the government's own responsibilities after a disaster event to arrive at an overall assessment of the funding gap that may exist to respond to such disasters

Funding Gap Analysis

Unfunded Funding

Gap


- Relies on an extensive data work bringing together comprehensive

damage and funding information related to natural disasters for the

period 2000 to 2014.

- Meticulous library and internet search which covered various

publicly available sources published by the Government of

Bangladesh and international organizations.

Funding Gap Analysis Approach

- The extensive library and internet search has been

conducted by multiple persons, which was also

cross-checked by different team members to

ensure data reliability and accuracy.


Historical Loss due to

Catastrophe Damage


- EMDAT

- Dartmouth Flood Observatory

- Ministry of Disaster Management and

Relief

- BMD

- CDMP

- International Federation of Red Cross

And Red Crescent Societies

- World Bank

- Munich Re

- Government of Bangladesh

- Other reports and sources

Primary Data Sources on Catastrophe Loss


- 96 TCs in Bay of Bengal

- 14 events crossing Bangladesh

• 9 with significant damage reports

• 3 with over one million people

affected

Tropical Cyclones during 2000 to 2013

Year Start Date Name Type Life

Loss

People

Affected

Loss

(M USD)

Loss

Source

2000 October 25 N/A Storm 253 15,00 2.4 Inferred

2002 November 09 N/A Storm 182 5,000 0.8 Inferred

2004 October 07 N/A Depression - - - -

2007 May 13 AKASH Hurricane 90 80,000 1.0 Inferred

2007 November 10 SIDR Hurricane 4,407 8,923,259 1,674.9 GOB

2008 June 16 N/A Depression - - - -

2008 October 24 RASHMI Storm 13 321,839 16.8 Inferred

2009 April 14 BIJLI Storm 7 92,558 7.1 Inferred

2009 May 22 AILA Hurricane 500 4,826,630 1,149.0 GOB

2010 October 07 N/A Depression - - - -

2011 June 16 N/A Storm - - - -

2011 October 17 N/A Storm - - - -

2012 October 10 N/A Depression 108 133,688 25.9 Inferred

2013 May 09 MAHASEN Storm 17 1,328,237 125.8 Inferred

Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in Bangladesh from 2000 to 2013

Tropical Cyclones in Bay of

Bengal from 2000 to 2013


- Some level of flood affected area every

year

- 5 years with 20% or more country area

affected

- Two years with over 10 million people

affected (2004 & 2007)

Floods during 2000 to 2013

Year

Percent

Country

Affected

(BWDB)

Life Loss People

Affected

Loss

(M USD)

Loss

Source

2000 24 81 3,244,576 500.0 EMDAT

2001 2.8 19 700,000 70.0 Inferred

2002 10 161 7,608,837 1,014.6 Inferred

2003 14 252 7,874,465 969.6 Inferred

2004 38 910 40,955,375 2,280.0 World Bank

2005 12 60 1,220,000 122.0 Inferred

2006 11 105 211,775 21.2 Inferred

2007 42 1,230 14,000,000 1,066.7 World Bank

2008 23 28 975,096 166.5 Inferred

2009 19 16 500,000 50.0 Inferred

2010 18 119 1,240,000 124.0 Inferred

2011 20 53 1,853,000 351.3 Inferred

2012 12 139 5,398,475 572.6 Inferred

2013 10.6 - 415,250 41.5 Inferred

2007 Floods in Bangladesh

(Source: UNOSAT)


- > 90% of the total damage due to floods (USD 7,650 million) and

tropical cyclones (USD 3,000 million).

Catastrophe Loss Broken Down by Peril 0

10

00

20

00

30

00

Flo

od D

am

ag

e

2002 2006 2010 2014Year

Flood Damage

0

10

00

20

00

30

00

Tro

pic

al C

yclo

ne

Dam

age

2002 2006 2010 2014Year

Tropical Cyclone Damage

050

15

0

Ea

rthq

ua

ke

Dam

age

2002 2006 2010 2014Year

Earthquake Damage

050

15

0

Se

ve

re S

torm

Da

mag

e

2002 2006 2010 2014Year

Severe Storm Damage

Source: Various Data Sources Collated by Air-WorldWide and ADPC

Flood, Tropical Cyclone, Earthquake, and Severe Storm Damages (Millions of USD)

Figure 2. Natural Disasters in Bangladesh 2000-2014

68%

28%

0% 4%

Economic Loss 2000-2013

FL

TC

EQ

SS


- Although Bangladesh has not experienced any major natural disaster since 2010, the period 2010 to 2014 has still witnessed an average annual damage due to natural perils of USD 350 million.

- The long-run loss over 15 years: a massive total disaster-related loss of USD 11,042 million over the period 2000 to 2014.

Total Loss due to Catastrophe Damage from Flood,

Tropical Cyclone, Earthquake & Severe Storm 0

50

010

00

15

00

20

00

25

00

30

00

To

tal D

am

ag

e

2002 2006 2010 2014Year

Source: Various Data Sources Collated by Air-WorldWide and ADPC

Total Damage (Millions of USD)

Figure 1. Natural Disasters in Bangladesh 2000-2014

2004 floods: USD 2,300 million

2007 floods: USD 1,000 million

2007 Sidr tropical cyclone: USD 2,700 million

2009 Aila tropical cyclone: USD 1,200 million


Funding for Catastrophe Loss


- Expenditures made on the recovery, rehabilitation and prevention

(RRP) projects

• Derived from the approved procurement costs of a total of 204 unique

tenders implemented over the period 2000 to 2014

• Source: Annual Development Program of the Planning Commission,

Ministry of Planning

- Humanitarian aid

• Source: Financial Tracking Services of the United Nations Office for

the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA)

(http://fts.unchoa.org)

- Disaster and climate change-related development assistance

• Source: Economic Relations Division, Ministry of Finance

Disaster Funding Data Sources and

Primary Components of Funding

http://fts.unchoa.org/


- Disaster Risk Reduction Fund. • The funding amount available could not be identified, but is likely to be

modest.

- Emergency Fund Disaster Management. • The funding amount is confirmed to be small (again, the full amount could

not be identified).

- Fund for Unforeseen Incidents. • Available each year in the order of one billion Taka (USD 14.28 million)

While this funding can be allocated for any purpose (such as computer purchase) in an ordinary year, in the disaster years it is almost certain that the whole allocation would be spent on disaster risk reduction.

- Climate Resilience Fund (PKSF) • The funding amount could not be identified.

Additional Funding Sources and Data

The data are currently missing some small emergency response expenditures made by the governmental and nongovernmental layers in disaster situations, but missing these data is unlikely to make a difference to our main conclusions.


The total procurement cost of 204 projects over 2000-2014, i.e., the

long-term funding, is USD 2,772 million.

Funding for Recovery, Rehabilitation and Prevention

Projects from 2000-2014 0

10

020

030

040

050

0

Fu

nd

ing fo

r P

roje

cts

2002 2006 2010 2014Year

Source: Annual Investment Program, Planning Commission

Funding for Recovery, Rehabilitation and Prevention Projects(Millions of USD)

Figure 3. Financing Natural Disasters in Bangladesh2000-2014

- Varies greatly from year to

year. Spikes in funding

usually occurs after major

cat events

- RRP funding as been

more active in recent

years as disaster funding

has been allocated in a

more sustained manner

from 2010-2014 (~USD

200 million/year)


- 2007 witnessed the highest amount of humanitarian aid (USD 300 million), followed by 2004 (USD 100 million). Other years, attracted very low amounts.

- The pre-2007 humanitarian aid average was USD 20.5 per annum.

- Post-2007 average being nearly doubled, USD 37 million per annum.

Humanitarian Aid Provided to Bangladesh from

2000-2014 0

10

020

030

040

0

Hu

man

itari

an

Aid

2002 2006 2010 2014Year

Source: http://fts.unocha.org

Humanitarian Aid into Bangladesh (Millions of USD)


- The long-term humanitarian aid

corresponds to a total of USD 700

million over the period 2000 to 2014.


- The year 2007, when Sidr cyclone occurred, witnessed more than USD 600 million development aid.

- The three major contributors in this year are: WB-IDA (USD 323 million), ADB (USD 125 million), and IDB (USD 130 million).

Disaster and Climate Change-Related Development

Aid from 2000-2014 0

10

020

030

040

050

060

0

Fo

reig

n A

id

2002 2006 2010 2014Year

Source: Flow of External Resources in Bangladesh, Economic Relations Division. The relevantdata are missing for 2000, 2001, 2013 and 2014.

Disaster-Related Foreign Aid into Bangladesh (Millions of USD)


- For the long-run perspective, the total disaster and climate

change-related development assistance into Bangladesh over the

period 2002 to 2012 is found to be USD 1,782 million.


Total Funding from Three Primary Sources from

2000-2014. 0

20

040

060

080

010

00

To

tal F

und

ing

2002 2006 2010 2014Year

Source: Air World Wide and ADPC. Years 2000, 2001, 2013 and 2014 do not includedisaster-related foreign aid.

Total Available Funding (Millions of USD)


- Consistent with the

severity of the Sidr

cyclone, the year 2007 had

a total funding of USD

1050 million, followed by

2004 (USD 578 million)

and 2008 (USD 506

million)

- The figures also show that

only 33% of the total

funding is met by domestic

resources, while 67% with

foreign sources. The total long-run funding over 15 years

from 2000 to 2014 corresponds to USD

5,254 million.


Preliminary Results for Historical Catastrophe

Funding Gap from 2000-2014

0

50

010

00

15

00

20

00

Fu

nd

ing G

ap

2002 2006 2010 2014Year

Source: Various Data Sources Collated by Air-WorldWide and ADPC. Years 2000, 2001, 2013and 2014 do not include disaster-related foreign aid.

Funding Gap (Millions of USD)

Figure 7. Natural Disasters and Funding Gap in Bangladesh2000-2014


Preliminary Funding Gap Results

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