front end innovation future methodssirkkalantehdas.karelia.fi/files/future_methods.pdf · front end...

FRONT END INNOVATION Future methods

CONTENT

Front end innovation process

Weak signals and trends

Scenarios

TOOLS AND METHODS

Peste-analysis

Context map

Future wheel

Written Scenario

“Vision is not only a founding idea but necessarily the resolution to ensure its realization”

Jonathan Ive, Apple Computer inc.

FUTURE METHODS

The ability to use foresight in order to make wise, insightful and imaginative choices is one

of the most powerful capabilities of organizations in a global economy

Present actions are guided by our interpretation

of the past , and by our anticipation of, or aspiration for, the future

FUTURE METHODS

Source: Peter McGrory, Aalto University

FUTURE ANALYSIS PROCESS

Weak signals can be spotted in different fields through the same kind of expertise and long term knowledge that helps

us to see the trends in our professional field

Small things existing today but telling us about big trends in the future

Uncovering a weak signal before anyone else does gives an edge in development and may allow the emergence of an

entire ecosystem of interlocked, collaborating ideas, inventions, and enterprises

A too fixed expertise view can also prevent spotting a weak

signal because they are unexpected

WEAK SIGNALS

Searching weak signals is at the same time a description of innovation: spotting opportunities and new combinations

form diverse fields of life

So it seems that weak signals can be acquired through ideation from a multidisciplinary group

They cannot usually be bought from the consultancies because if a weak signal is sold by a trend spotting

consultant it is no longer a weak signal but already at least a weak trend

WEAK SIGNALS

TRENDS

Mega trend

Societal trends

Consumer & lifestyle

trends

Design trends

Colors & material trends

Megatrends

Decades

Macrotrends

10 years

Mesotrends

5 years

Microtrends

6 months to 3 years

Source: Nokia Consumer trends research/07-06-2004/Elise Levanto

GLOBAL MEGA & SOCIETAL TRENDS


Globalization

Information society

Feminization

Demographic change

Induvidualism

Experiences

Information society

Tech-paradox

Wellbeing

Awareness

Networked society

Tolerance & equity

Gray power

Culturism

SOCIETAL & CONSUMER TRENDS - LOGICS


Mega trend

Societal trends

Consumer trends

Information society

Wellbeing

Awareness •  Green products •  Less is more

attitude

•  Slowing down •  Search for

balance between mind and body

•  Hedonistic health

•  Spirituality

Implications •  Longevity &

evolutionary nature of the solution

Implications •  Enhancing

health •  Focus on the

essential •  Decreaced

complexity

DIFFUSION OF TRENDS


2.5%

Innovators

Post materialism

Self development

Materialistic orientation

Leisure = relaxation & having fun

13.5%

Early adopters

34%

Early majority

34%

Late majority

16%

laggards

Leading edge Mainstream

CHASM

Awareness

Wellbeing

LEADING EDGE VS. MAINSTREAM VALUES


Leading edge •  They give us an idea how values &

attitudes may change •  Good adaptability – ready to change

their attitudes •  Post materialistic values •  They create their own community •  Flexibility & autonomous – hierarchies

are irrelevant •  Love to learn – self realization & well-

being •  “Have a dream, don´t abandon

yourself”

Mainstream •  They represent prevalent attitudes,

values and practices •  Slow in change – behaviour will change

before values •  Consumeristic drive •  Community = family, friends, strong

togetherness •  Traditions, but with modern twist •  Root sand heritage are important •  Relaxation and fun •  Search for table and regular, but not

boring life

GLOBAL TRENDS

http://www.slideshare.net/inezzy/ trend-pulse-for-creative-industries-2990808

http://www.trendhunter.com/

Scenarios are a technique to build the alternative futures as presentations of life form in a context

Certain weak signals or trends can fulfil themselves in these

scenarios

More specific use situations with imagined or real users and social or human product interaction can also be presented

as scenarios

Scenarios are are multidisciplinary and evolutionary constructions of the future that can cover a wide range of

cultural, economic, technological and social issues

WHAT IS SCENARIO?

Scenarios are device to:

Think about the future

Create, communicate and contemplate these alternative futures

Cross-‐check assumptions concerning possible

alternative futures

Structure perceptions about these futures

Form the basis or premise for future thinking and action

WHAT IS SCENARIO?

http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html

HOW?

Identify macro-‐environmental factors

which are affecting to your design challenge

PESTEL ANALYSIS - TOOL

Source: Robert Curedale. Design methods 1: 200 ways to apply design thinking

PESTEL ANALYSIS - TOOL


CONTEXT MAP - TOOL


HOW?

Identify the most relevant driving forces (trends,

political factors etc.) that are affecting to the business

environment

CONTEXT MAP - TOOL


FUTURE WHEEL - TOOL

http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/futures-wheel.htm

HOW?

The futures wheel is a way of organising thinking and questioning about the future change

It is a kind of structured brainstorming, analysing and

mind mapping tool for the future

Futures wheel can assist in developing multiple concepts about possible future development

Start by placing the central idea/concept in the middle

of the framework

Brainstorm possible impacts that the idea/concept might have for the environment

FUTURE WHEEL - TOOL


WRITTEN SCENARIO - TOOL


HOW?

Create future scenarios around the development case for by following steps

to 1. to 14.

WRITTEN SCENARIO - TOOL


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