friday weather discussion clark evans 27 march 2015
TRANSCRIPT
Friday Weather Discussion
Clark Evans27 March 2015
MJO Phase Diagram
Peak amplitude on record (1974-present): 4.265
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
MJO & Tropical Wave Evolution
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_modes/index.htm
OLR: MJO and Anomaly
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
850/200 hPa u: MJO and Anomaly
850 hPa at left, 200 hPa at right. http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/
850 hPa u: Full, Anomaly
Full field at left, anomaly (from 1989-2008 climo) field at right.http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/
Equatorial Pacific Ocean State
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sea-temp.php
ENSO Forecasts
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
“…the dynamical models are anticipating a moderately strong event to develop in the Northern Hemisphere’s late spring and summer. They are notoriously bad for seeing through the spring predictability barrier, though, so it should be noted that the statistical models are more conservative, predicting a neutral-to-weak El Niño event.”
IRI March 2015 Climate Briefing, http://iri.columbia.edu/news/march-2015-el-nino/
April-May-June 2015 Forecasts
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
Winter 2014-15 In Review
Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 Temperature
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/global-maps/
Dec 2013 – Feb 2014 Temperature
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/global-maps/
Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 Temperature
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/
Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 Temperature
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp
Dec 2014 – Feb 2015 Precipitation
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/
Dec 2014 – Mar 2015 Precipitation
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp
Dec 2014 – Mar 2015 Snowfall
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp
Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
500 hPa Height, Anomaly
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 1 December 2014 – 23 March 2015http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/
850 hPa Temperature, Anomaly
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 1 December 2014 – 23 March 2015http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/
Five Periods of Interest
• 5-27 December (warm)
• 29 December – 14 January (cold)
• 15-31 January (warm)
• 1 February – 6 March (cold)
• 8-20 March (warm)
A Mild December
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp
A Mild December
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 5-27 December 2014http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/
A Chilly New Year
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp
A Chilly New Year
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 29 December 2014 – 14 January 2015http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/
Warmer and Dry in Late January
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp
Warmer and Dry in Late January
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 15-31 January 2015http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/
A Persistent Mid-Winter’s Chill
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp
A Persistent Mid-Winter’s Chill
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 1 February to 6 March 2015http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/
Spring into March
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/map_btd.jsp
Spring into March
Derived from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis, 8-20 March 2015http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/
Possible Pattern Influences
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.htmlhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/
Possible Pattern Influences
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html
Possible Pattern Influences
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/loading.htmlhttp://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/heathera/2015.html
SLP’ -
SLP’ +
SLP’ +
SLP’ -
Possible Pattern Influences
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/loading.htmlhttp://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/heathera/2015.html
SLP’ -
SLP’ +
SLP’ +
SLP’ -
Possible Pattern Influences
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml
+NAO very similar to +AO during boreal
winter
+PNA in winter: below- (above-) normal heights in C. Pacific (western N.
America).
Possible Pattern Influences
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
Some Scientific Questions
• Why does the spring predictability barrier for ENSO exist, and will the current El Niño intensify or not?
• Why has anomalous cold occurred over North America and nowhere else in the last two winters?
• Why did the mid-latitude pattern evolve as it did on sub-seasonal scales? Can we even identify why?
• What caused the MJO to achieve such a high amplitude this March, and what does it mean?