freight transport scenarios of south asia and … international container terminal freight transport...
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Colombo International Container Terminal
Freight Transport Scenarios of South Asia and Findings from Model Analysis
Ryuichi Shibasaki, Dr. Eng.Head of International Cooperation Division,
National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
1. MODEL
Colombo
Cochin
Chennai
Visakhapatnam
Haldia Chittagong
JNPT
HaziraPipavav
Mundra
Port Bin Qasim
Mumbai
Kolkata
Karachi
Mormugao
New Mangalore
KandlaMongla
Krishnapatnam(Kattupalli)
Tuticorin
Model Accuracy (1) Maritime Shipping Submodel
R² = 0.7819
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Model estimated
Actual
Lianyunggang (China)
Colombo
Pireus (Greece)
Singapore
Qingdao (China)
Rotterdam(Netherland)
N = 34
Dubai (UAE)
Valencia (Spain)
Ambarli (Turkey)
Shenzhen(two terminals)
Colon/Manzanillo(Panama)
Marsaxlokk(Malta)
R² = 0.9067
0
5
10
15
20
0 5 10 15 20
Model estimated
Actual
Tanjung Pelepas (Malaysia)
Hong Kong
Colombo
Singapore
Port klang (Malaysia)
N = 34
Busan
million TEU
million TEU
Colon/Manzanillo(Panama)
Marsaxlokk (Malta)Dubai (UAE)
Algeciras(Spain)
Transhipped containers* at major hub ports (2013)
(b) Transhipment throughput (a) Transhipment rate
*excluding empty containers
R² = 0.8325
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
R² = 0.9044
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
Model Accuracy (2) Intermodal Network Model
Export/Import containers* at South Asian ports (2013)
ImportExport
JNPT
Mundra
Chennai
Chittagong
Pipavav
Kolkata
Vizag
HaldiaColombo
Tuticorin
Cochin
Model estimated
Actual
million TEU
million TEU
KarachiBin Qasim
Model estimated
Actual
million TEU
million TEU
JNPT
MundraChennai
Chittagong
Pipavav
Kolkata
Vizag
Colombo
Tuticorin
Hazira
Karachi
Bin Qasim
Mongla
Cochin
*excluding empty containers
Estimated Land Container Flow(2013)
(TEU)
Container flow (TEU, 2013)
10
Non‐Container
Container
International Shipping Network Capacity, size, and efficiency of ports Accessibility of mainline ships
Inland Logistics Network Road, rail, and inland waterway development in each country
Assuming future transport network in the Region
Scenario on “transport network” affects selection of port.
Selection of port simply depends on locations of production and consumption.
2. FUTURE SCENARIO
1. Economic Scenarios
1‐1. 2030 Normal Case (2030OD) x1.85 of 2013OD (in world total)
1‐2. 2030 High Case (2030HighOD) x2.26
1‐3. 2030 Low Case (2030LowOD) x1.53
2. Maritime Shipping Network Scenarios
2‐1. “Vessel enlargement as needed” Scenario
2‐2. “Vessel enlargement until 20,000 TEU” Scenario
2‐3. “Increasing service frequency as needed” Scenario
(based on 1‐1. 2030OD)
*Port infrastructure as well as hinterland infrastructure is assumed to be sufficiently improved in all ports (“with case”)
3. Port Investment Scenarios
3‐1. “Without investment in individual port ” Scenario
3‐1‐a. JNPT, ….
3‐0. “With Scenario”
(all port‐related projects in South Asia will be assumingly completed until 2030)
3‐3. “New construction of hub port in South India” Scenario
3‐2. “Additional increasing in level of service in Colombo Port” Scenario
3‐2‐a. transshipment handling time to be half
3‐2‐b. transshipment handling time to be 1/4
4. Hinterland Investment Scenarios
“Without Scenario” for each project
4‐1. DFC Scenario
4‐2. “Ferry & Rail Connection between South India and Sri Lanka” Scenario
4‐3. “Multimodal hinterland network in Bangladesh” Scenario
4‐4. “CAREC Gateway in Pakistani Ports” Scenario
4‐5. “Chennai‐Bangalore Industrial Corridor” Scenario
4‐0. “With Scenario” (all following projects will be assumingly completed until 2030)
14
4‐1. DFC Scenario
Capacity expansion by introducing double‐stacked train(from 90 TEU/train to 360 TEU/train)
Speed up Increasing frequency Reducing handling time at station Reducing operation cost
15
• Connection of Palk Strait1. Re‐opening for ferry bet. Tuticorin
and Colombo
2. Adam’s Bridge (New rail service)
3. National Border bet. India/Sri Lanka‐ decreasing border crossing time and cost by half
4‐2. “Ferry & Rail Connection between South India and Sri Lanka” Scenario
16
4‐3. “Multimodal hinterland network in Bangladesh” Scenario
Assam
Between Dhaka and Chittagong
Mongla
• Road: increasing truck speed• Rail: increasing frequency and speed• Inland waterway: increasing frequency
Around Mongla Port• Road: capacity expansion• Rail: new construction to Mongla Port
Connection with Northeast India• Rail: new construction and improvement
17
– Following two category of cargos are assumed to be handled at various ports in Pakistan.
• 1) Cargos arriving at and/or departing from Pakistan• 2) Cargos passing through Pakistan, to arrive/depart from Afghanistan, Central Asia, and inland China.
– Improvement in seaport (Karachi, Bin Qasim) access (railway and road)• 1) Improvement of land transport infrastructure required to access ports in of Pakistan
• 2) Development of roads and railways in Pakistan
Planned route for a new access railwayto Bin Qasim (reference)
Balochistan roads project (reference)
– Development of Gwadar Port and its access will proceed.
4‐4. “CAREC Gateway in Pakistani Ports” Scenario
Scenario 1. 2030OD 2. Maritime Shipping Network all over the world
3. Port projects in South Asia
4. Hinterland Shipping Network in South Asia
Base 1‐1 (Normal)
2‐1 “Vessel enlargement as needed” Scenario
3‐0 “With Scenario” (all related projects are assumingly completed)
4‐0 “With Scenario” (all related projects are assumingly completed)
High OD 1‐2 (High) 2‐1 3‐0 4‐0
Low OD 1‐3 (Low) 2‐1 3‐0 4‐0
SCENARIO SETTING [1]: Shipping Demand Change
State Growth rate (export/import containers)1‐1 Base 1‐2 High 1‐3 Low
India 2.69 3.59 2.01Andhra Pradesh 2.48 3.23 1.90Arunachal Pradesh 3.16 4.40 2.26Assam 3.16 4.40 2.26Bihar 3.70 5.38 2.53Goa 3.16 4.40 2.26Gujarat 3.51 5.03 2.43Haryana 2.92 3.97 2.13Himachal Pradesh 2.69 3.59 2.01Jammu & Kashmir 2.42 3.13 1.86Jharkhand 2.77 3.71 2.05Karnataka 2.29 2.92 1.79Kerala 2.92 3.97 2.13Madhya Pradesh 3.16 4.40 2.26Chhattisgarh 4.33 6.56 2.83Maharashtra 2.69 3.59 2.01Manipur 2.92 3.97 2.13Meghalaya 3.16 4.40 2.26Mizoram 4.33 6.56 2.83Nagaland 2.62 3.46 1.97Orissa 2.69 3.59 2.01Punjab 2.42 3.13 1.86Rajasthan 2.69 3.59 2.01Sikkim 3.16 4.40 2.26Tamil Nadu 2.62 3.46 1.97Tripura 3.90 5.75 2.62Uttar Pradesh 2.62 3.46 1.97Uttaranchal 3.00 4.11 2.17West Bengal 2.84 3.84 2.09Andaman and Nicobar 2.92 3.97 2.13Chandigarh 4.33 6.56 2.83Delhi 4.33 6.56 2.83Pondicherry 2.84 3.84 2.09
Country Growth rate (export/import containers)1‐1 Base 1‐2 High 1‐3 Low
Bangladesh 2.68 3.56 2.00India 2.69 3.59 2.01Pakistan 2.17 2.72 1.73Sri Lanka 2.69 3.59 2.01
Japan 1.18 1.25 1.13China (including Hong Kong) 2.24 2.84 1.76Korea 1.40 1.55 1.27ASEAN 2.22 2.86 1.74Oceania 1.51 1.71 1.34North America 1.36 1.49 1.24Europe 1.30 1.41 1.20Middle East 1.78 2.13 1.50Africa 2.09 2.62 1.67Others 2.03 2.58 1.62
South Asia Ave. 2.63 3.49 1.98World Ave. 1.85 2.26 1.53
Assumed growth rate of container shipping demand in 2030 (from 2013)
Source: JICA team(GDP growth rate)
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5
Export
2013 Actual 2013 Model Estimated2030 Low OD 2030 Base2030 High OD
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5
Import
2013 Actual 2013 Model Estimated2030 Low OD 2030 Base2030 High OD
(mil. TEU)
(mil. TEU)
Estimated Amount of Containers in 2030
*excluding empty containers
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0
Transshipment
2013 Actual2013 Model Estimated2030 Low OD2030 Base2030 High OD
(mil. TEU)
Estimated Amount of Containers in 2030 [2]
*excluding empty containers
Estimated growth rate of containers handled in each port
2030Low OD
2030Base
2030High OD
2030Low OD
2030Base
2030High OD
Chittagong 1.87 2.28 3.44 2.01 2.76 3.20Mongla 3.18 5.63 5.01 2.82 3.29 7.44Kolkata 1.68 1.76 2.56 1.57 2.98 3.60Haldia 1.95 2.74 3.91 1.81 3.47 4.24Visakhapatnam 1.63 1.46 2.62 1.72 0.86 3.55Krishnapatnam 1.52 1.70 2.57 1.41 1.96 2.13Chennai 2.31 3.35 4.10 2.18 3.36 4.47Tuticorin 1.01 1.46 2.68 1.22 2.01 1.65Cochin 1.95 2.52 3.04 2.27 2.99 4.21New Manglore 2.72 2.97 4.57 2.31 3.54 5.01Mormugao 0.86 1.44 2.38 1.19 1.92 2.82JNPT 2.56 3.59 4.99 2.02 2.69 4.10Hazira 1.34 3.99 4.62 1.81 2.80 3.03Pipavav 4.34 5.32 8.63 7.81 9.74 12.13Kandla 1.19 0.36 0.84 1.00 4.12 3.45Mundra 1.45 2.31 2.28 1.34 1.92 2.23Colombo 2.29 2.93 3.72 2.12 2.82 3.85Total (Average) 2.05 2.77 3.74 2.11 2.90 3.96Colombo(transshipment)
1.76 2.26 2.95
ImportExportport
Estimated Land Container Flow(2030, Base Case)
(TEU)
Scenario 1. 2030OD
2. Maritime Shipping Network all over the world
3. Port projects in South Asia
4. Hinterland Shipping Network in South Asia
Base 1‐1 (Normal)
2‐1 “Vessel enlargement as needed” Scenario(i.e. each vessel will enlarge by 1.85 times as the current size)
3‐0 “With all port related projects“ Scenario (all related projects are assumingly completed)
4‐0 “With Scenario” (all related projects are assumingly completed)
Chittagong deeper berth
1‐1 2‐1 3‐1‐a “Without any deeper berths in Chittagong port projects” Scenario*
4‐0
Mongla deeper berth
1‐1 2‐1 3‐1‐b “Without any deeper berths in Mongla port projects” Scenario
4‐0
Kolkata/Haldia deeper berth
1‐1 2‐1 3‐1‐c “Without any deeper berths both in Kolkata/Haldia port projects” Scenario
4‐0
….
SCENARIO SETTING [2]: Deeper Berths Construction
*any vessels larger than the maximum size that vessels can call at are assumed to skip the port in question
PortMax draft incontainer berths
Current maximum vessel size estimated from the draft (TEU)
Maximum vesselsize which actually calls at (June 2013)
No. of liner service (June 2013)
No. of liner service assumed in the “without case” in 2030*
Chittagong 9.2 1700 1718 15 1
Mongla 8.5 1100 1088 1 0
Kolkata 8.4 1000 1067 11 0
Haldia 8.4 1000 1125 5 0
Visakhapatnam 14.5 6500 4365 7 6
Khrishnapatnam 13 4500 2740 2 1
Chennai 13.4 4900 4365 18 13
Tuticorin 10.8 2400 1869 6 3
Cochin 12.5 3900 4270 10 8
JNPT 14 5700 7865 32 7
Hazira NA 4100 4113 4 1
Pipavav 14 5700 6349 10 2
Mundra 14.3 6200 7865 27 14
Colombo 16.2 9400 8830 49 38
Current Status and Settings in each port
*each vessel is assumed to enlarge by 1.85 times as the current size
0
1
2
3
4
5
6 without any deeper berths(in each port) (S3‐1)with all port related projects(Base Scenario)
Estimated Amount of Containers in 2030
(mil. TEU)
Scenario 1. 2030OD
2. Maritime Shipping Network all over the world
3. Port projects in South Asia 4. Hinterland Shipping Network in South Asia
Base 1‐1 (Normal)
2‐1 “Vessel enlargement as needed” Scenario
3‐0 “With all port related projects“ Scenario (all related projects are assumingly completed)
4‐0 “With Scenario” (all related projects are assumingly completed)
Colombo improvement
1‐1 2‐1 3‐2‐a “Additional increasing in level of service in Colombo Port” Scenario (Transshipment handling time to be half)
4‐0
1‐1 2‐1 3‐2‐b “Additional increasing in level of service in Colombo Port” Scenario (Transshipment handling time to be 1/4)
4‐0
New hub in South India
1‐1 2‐1 3‐3 “New construction of hub port in South India” Scenario
4‐0
SCENARIO SETTING [3]: Hub Port(s) in South Asia
‐1.0
‐0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Colombo Southeast Asia Hub* Middle East Hub**
handling time to be 1/2 (or equivalentcharge reduction) in Colombo Porthandling time to be 1/4 (or equivalentcharge reduction) in Colombo Port
3‐2. Improvement of level of service in Colombo
Changes of transshipped containers handled in Colombo and neighbor major hub ports by reducing handling time in Colombo Port
*Singapore, Tanjung Pelepas, Klang
**Dubai, Khor Fakkan, Salalah
20.3%
30.2%
‐1.1% ‐1.5% ‐2.0% ‐3.0%
Increased transshipped containers (in 2030, mil. TEU)
SAMMARY
Intermodal international container shipping model
including both worldwide maritime network and South Asian hinterland network amount of export, import and transshipped containers estimated by port agree
with those actually recorded in 2013
Future forecast using the developed model by several scenarios
container shipping demand in 2030 (normal, high, and low) deeper berths construction in each South Asian port improvement of level of service in hub port (Colombo) and new construction in
South India improvement of hinterland transport network including rail, inland water and
road (e.g. DFC, ferry and rail service between India and Sri Lanka, Bangladesh hinterland network, Pakistani rail network)
capacity expansion of maritime shipping network (vessel enlargement or increasing frequency)
Karachi Port Trust
Thank you for your kind attention!