FREIGHT TRANSPORT RESEARCH IN AFRICA & ASIA

John Hine

FREIGHT TRANSPORT RESEARCH TOPICS Modelling Vehicle Operating Costs for Road Appraisal

– Can time savings be used productively ?– Speed and fuel consumption– Vehicle maintenance costs

Examining the efficiency and constraints of national transport systems.– Reducing Empty Running– Comparative Transport Costs and Tariffs between Africa

and Asia Improving the efficiency of rural transport

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SURVEY PROCEDURES

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Procedure Vehicle Fleet

Load, Tariff

Utilisation, empty running

Fuel, Speed

Maintenance costs

Road roughness/ shocks

Country examples

Roadside Survey

Y Y Y Y Y Pakistan, China, Tanzania,

Driver records Y Y Y Y Pakistan

Travelling observer

Y Y Y Y Pakistan

Office interviews

Y Y Pakistan, China, Indonesia, Tanzania

Freight Agents

Y Pakistan

Instrumented Vehicle

Y Y Indonesia, Pakistan

Truck parks Y Y Y Y Y Indonesia, Ghana

LOG LOADED TRIPS PER DAY = 0.97 -0.932 LOG WORKING TIME PER TRIP (THE ELASTICITY SUGGESTS TIME SAVINGS WOULD BE FULLY USED) – PAKISTAN TRAVELLING OBSERVER SURVEY

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MODELLING VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS IN RELATION TO ROAD CHARACTERISTICS

Road Appraisal Models such as HDM4 and RED calculate vehicle operating costs as a function of road alignment, road width, traffic volume and road roughness. The models are used to estimate the benefits of upgrading earth and gravel roads to a paved bitumen standard.

The models predict vehicle speeds, fuel consumption and maintenance costs. Generally the smoother, wider and better aligned the road surface so the lower the operating costs. Speed is calculated by complex formula whereby the key limiting factor (gradient, curvature, roughness, traffic volume etc) determines the speed. Fuel is dependent on speed and gradient. Vehicle maintenance is dependent on road roughness.

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HDM4 (The Road Planning Model)

The Calculation of Fuel ConsumptionFUEL CONSUMPTION

Uses the ARFCOM model - an instantaneous model of engine power requirements which includes� Tractive power to overcome resistance to motion� Accessory power� Internal engine resistance

ACCELERATION NOISESpeeds in congested traffic conditions are not constant and speed variations need to be included in the fuel consumption model

Light Vehicle Fuel Consumption in Indonesia: Observed to Predicted ARFCOM Results

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

ARFCOM Fuel (cc/km)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Observ

ed F

uel (c

c/k

m)

Obs

erve

d

Predicted

Medium Truck Fuel Consumption(Flat Straight Road in Indonesia)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Speed (km/h)

Fuel

Con

sum

ptio

n (c

c/km

)

HDMIII no congestion

ARFCOM /HDM-4 no congestion

Estimated fuel consumption with congestion by ARFCOM/HDM4

HDM-4

MAINTENANCE PARTS CONSUMPTION� The most important component of road user costs� The most 'variable' and most difficult to model� Function of new vehicle price, vehicle age and road

roughness� HDM-4 relationships less sensitive to roughness� Essential to calibrate

MAINTENANCE LABOUR� Dependent on parts consumption

Observed

Predicted

Mai

nten

ance

Cos

ts

Vehicle Age

Observed and Predicted Vehicle Maintenance Costs- Articulated Truck

Transport Tariffs depend upon Distance, Mode and Road Surface: Evidence from Ethiopia

Transport Tariffs (Derived from Regression Analysis)

0102030405060

0 50 100

Distance, km

Tari

ff, B

irr

pe

r q

t.

main road rough road animal transport

A STUDY OF EMPTY RUNNING IN CHINA In 1990s China had a high degree of empty running. This appeared

to relate to a high level of own account operations in addition to a poorly developed system of commercial freight forwarding agents.

A study was carried out in Zhengzhou (at the cross roads of main east west and north south highways) in which 1024 truck drivers were interviewed.

Empty running data was compared with Pakistan and UK data and a ‘load matching’ analysis was carried out by computer. Potential savings were estimated at between 13 % and 19% of total distance travelled in the survey.

Overall with a better developed freight forwarding industry about 4% of total freight vehicle distance may be saved in China.

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Empty Running in China and Pakistan

LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE INDEX : LPIThe LPI is a set of indicators that measure perceptions of the

logistics environment of 155 countries on several logistics dimensions. The survey uses an anonymous, web-based questionnaire and assess several logistics dimensions:

• International transportation costs;• Domestic transportation costs;• Timeliness of shipments;• Traceability of shipments;• Transport and IT infrastructure;• Customs and other border procedures; and• Logistics competence.

October 2007

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2.19 2.272.49

2.733.01

3.14

3.91 3.99

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

WestAfrica

CentralAfrica

EastAfrica

SouthernAfrica

LAC Easterneurope

USA WesternEurope

Tran

spor

t Qua

lity

(LPI

)

TRANSPORT QUALITY IS LOW IN AFRICA : LPI

TRANSPORT COSTS IN AFRICA AND ASIA Over the past 25 years there have been at least five

major comparative studies of transport costs in Africa and Asia

The studies confirm that transport tariffs in Africa, for comparable journeys are many times higher than in Africa than in Asia

However there are differences in the reasons behind the higher costs: earlier studies emphasised cost factors while the latest study by the World Bank (2009) puts more emphasis on very high profits.

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TRANSPORT COSTS IN AFRICA & ASIA: MAIN SOURCES

TRL Study on Pakistan, INRETS & LET, Francophone Africa. See: A comparison of the costs and productivity of road freight transport in Africa and Pakistan. Transport Reviews, Vol 13, No.2, Rizet & Hine, 1993

A Comparison of Freight Transport Operations in Tanzania and Indonesia,1997. TRL Report 267. J Hine, J. Ebden and P Swan)

The transition from non-motorised to motorised modes of transport. 7th World Conference on Transport Research, Sydney, 1995( S. Ellis & J. Hine).

: Transport Prices and Costs in Africa: A review of the International Corridors. By S. Teravaninthorn and G. Raballand. World bank 2009

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Comparison of Long Distance Tariffs: US$ per ton km, 1988

Tariff Comparison

0.2 0.5 1 2 5 10 20 50

10

20

30

40

50

Thousand tonne km per trip

Tariff (1988 US cents/tonne/km)

Pakistan

Ivory Coast

Mali

Cameroon

INPUT COSTS (1988 US$)

Africa Pakistan

with without with without

New vehicle Tyre Diesel (US$/L)

Annual costs :

Veh. Insurance

Goods insuranceLicenses and taxes

154,500 123,300 39,710 33,093758 425 224 169

0.74 0.50 0.27 0.24

4,8881,7511,0281,361

4,8881,432

839-

8 84,103 4,103

--145 -

Crew

Taxes:

FREIGHT TRANSPORT COSTS

Design PayloadMean PayloadEmpty runningAnnual travel

Depreciation, InterestFuelMaintenanceTyresCrewInsuranceTaxes, OverheadsPolice, Agents Fees

Total costs per kmTotal costs per ton km

35.5 39.432.016.9 9.8 5.617.5 6.1

4.013.2 5.21.8

3.30.0061.02.4

162.6 7.6

31.01.4

US cents per km

tonstons%km

Africa253234

50,000

Pakistan132612

123,000

Tariffs per ton/km 1995 prices

Component price US$, 1995Item Tanzania Indonesia Pakistan

2 axle truck 64 900 22 300 24 200

3 axle truck 97 400 n.a. 37 800

Artic 135 000 73 100 46 500

Truck tyre 292 142 169

Diesel/ltr 0.435 0.166 0.32

Oil/ltr 2.27 1.66 1.0

Maint. Lab. 2.11 2.19 0.7

Crew: 2 axle 136 219 320

Crew: Artic 203 263 400

DIFFERENT MODES OF TRANSPORT Many factories in Thailand

produce the Etan farm vehicle out second hand parts. They can give low transport costs for small loads travelling short and medium distances.

The power tiller (or single axle tractor) is now an important means of transport, particularly in rural Asia.

Both of these vehicles may not be licensed to operate in Africa.

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Comparison of operating tariffs 1995 for local rural transport vehicles Thailand Sri

Lanka Pakistan Ghana Zimbabwe

Pickup Cents /t km

8.7 - 13.7 39.0 -

Truck (8-12 t.) Cents /t km

- - 2.1 20.6 21.4

Tractor Cents/ hr

- 320 270 1 240 740

Power Tiller Cents/ hr

123 127 - 357 -

-

Vehicle utilisation:local transport vehicles

Thailand Sri-Lanka

Pakistan Ghana Zimbabwe

Pickup km/yr

61 000 - 44 000 29 000 -

Tractor hr/yr

- 1 440 1 900 800 750

Power Tiller hr/yr

500 740 - 400 -

Ox cart hr/yr

- 875 2 000 - 400

Donkey cart km/yr

- - 4 600 1 600 -

TRANSPORT TARIFFS US$ Per Ton Km 2007 (WORLD BANK STUDY )

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23.5 4

5 5 5

78

11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Pak

ista

n

Bra

zil

US

A

Chi

na

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

– lo

ngdi

stan

ce

Afr

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Dur

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Lusa

ka

Afr

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Lom

é -

Oua

gado

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Afr

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–M

omba

saK

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Afr

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Dou

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Ndj

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Ave

rage

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nspo

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rices

(in

US

cen

ts p

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km)

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Corridor RouteGateway-Destination

Variable Cost

(US$ / km)

Fixed Cost (US$ / day)

Yearly ratio

FC/VC

Average yearly

mileage

Average truck fleet

age

Profit margin

Central Africa(Cameroon)

Douala-N’Djaména (Chad) 0.93 58 25% - 74% 60-70 12 74%

Douala-Bangui (CAR) 0.92 80 33% - 66% 50-60 10 120%

Ngaounderé-N’Djaména (Chad) 1.29 29 24% - 75% 50-60 15 158%

Ngaoundéré-Moundou (Chad) 1.70 27 29% - 70% 10-20 19 289%

East Africa(Uganda and Kenya)

Kampala-Mombasa (Kenya) 0.90 65 29% - 70% 130-140 12 42%

Mombasa-Kampala (Uganda) 0.62 92 46% - 53% 130-140 7 107%

West Africa(Burkina and Ghana)

Ouagadougou- Tema/Accra (Ghana) 1.01 30 15% - 84% 30-40 12 183%

Tema/Accra-Bamako (Mali) 0.93 34 17% - 82% 20-30 9 310%

Estimated Costs from 2007 Study

High Transport Costs In AfricaEarlier Studies Stressed: • High initial input prices for vehicles, fuel, parts • Exclusive dealerships, low demand• Poor driver knowledge of vehicle maintenance• Unnecessary fast driving speeds• Poor road surfaces• Little competition, particularly on rural routes • Low utilisation caused by low density of demand and

operation of operator cartels

HIGH TRANSPORT COSTS IN AFRICA - 2

Later studies emphasised:

Most vehicles are imported second hand Low utilisation of vehicles High barrier costs on international routes Super profits being made by operators The presence of cartels preventing competition

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Pakistan – a Model for Success ?

• One of the most efficient freight transport systems in the world

• Large network of freight forwarding agents – individually owned– 25% general merchandise – 75% specialist consignments

e.g. quarried materials, iron, steel

– ⅓ of consignments were “smalls” (< one ton)

Credit: TRL Limited

FREIGHT AGENT

FACTORS PROMOTING LOW COST TRANSPORT IN PAKISTAN - OPERATIONAL

On-the-job training for drivers Drivers given a lot of responsibility Continuous vehicle maintenance practiced Two drivers per vehicle achieve high utilization Oil changed frequently Slow driving speeds

FACTORS PROMOTING LOW COST TRANSPORT IN PAKISTAN - ORGANISATIONAL

Very competitive free market Little government regulation Efficient network of forwarding agents Low initial vehicle prices Many cheap parts made locally Many good local workshops High Density of Demand

DENSITY OF DEMAND : GPD PER SQ KM IN 2011

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Bangla

desh India

Pakist

an

Sri La

nka

Burundi

Ghana

Kenya

Mozambique

Nigeria

Rwanda

Tanzan

ia

Uganda

Zambia

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

GHANA . GPRTU 1.

About 70% of transport operators belong to the GPRTU (Ghana Private Road Transport Union of the TUC). The Union runs most of the truck and bus parks in the country. It also enforces passenger fares.

A queuing system is enforced by the truck and bus parks. Operators are assigned to certain routes. Customers are directed to the first vehicle in the queue, which will move once the vehicle is full. Freight drivers can queue for two weeks to get a load.

There are a number of large bus companies that operate in urban and interurban routes, however virtually all rural and freight transport is run by informal small scale operators.

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GHANA -GPRTU 2.

The union tries to assist members in various ways. Michel Delaquis’ study found that they would help long serving drivers become owners operators through advancing loans.

It is possible for freight operators to bypass the queuing system and visit factories, etc, for loads on spec. Although ‘fines’ have sometimes been imposed for doing this.

Freight Transport Tariffs are very high. A recent study found transporting an import container from Accra to Ougadougou was $4,800 compared with $654 between Newark and Chicago, (i.e. 7 times for a similar distance). An export container cost 2.5 times as much.

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MALAWI TRANSPORT COSTS A recent study by the World Bank found a 20 fold difference in

transport charges between transport of tobacco between local towns and city compared with the charges for international transport to export ports.

The main reasons identified were a combination of infrastructure issues, and segmented markets preventing competition.

It was suggested that larger trucks would find it difficult to operate on rural roads, and there was likely to be higher empty running on shorter trips.

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Malawi Transport Costs for Tobacco

Origin Destination

DistanceKm

Loadton

PriceKwacha

Price Kwachaton/km

Price US $ton/km

Ag. town

City 85 2.5 19,323 228.4 $ 2.10

Ag. town

Export port

2272 24.6 23,462 10.3 9.5 Cents

City Export port

2012 19.9 24,433 12.1 11.2 Cents

Explaining High Transport Costs within Malawi - Bad Roads or Lack of Trucking Competition?Policy Research Working Paper 5133, Somik V. Lall, Hyoung Wang, Thomas Munthali – World Bank, 2009

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A Comparison of Transport Operations in Cameroon

The Mayor of Ngoundere District in Northern Cameroon decided to address the issue of poor transport services and high tariffs. Substantial results followed.

A comparison was made by surveys between Ngoundere and two other Districts in the South Cameroon

First surveys around Buea

Second surveys

Characteristics of Transport in Southern Cameroon

• Transport operations are organised by syndicates• The syndicate determines fares and routes• The drivers wait in line and only leave when they

are full• The syndicate negotiates with the mayor for

access and fees for the terminal• The vehicles tend to be small (taxis), overloaded

and in poor condition

Will this provide a good service?

Transport Characteristics in Northern Cameroon

• There are a number of travel agencies operating in competition with each other

• The mayor has granted licenses for these travel agencies to operate out of individual terminals in the town

• The operations are professional and regular• The vehicles are clean, well maintained and large

30 seaters

Kwatal Travel Agency

Impact of these differences on the customer

• In the North passenger fares dropped by 50% in 2 years as competition increased

• In the North customers had a safer and more comfortable ride

• Greater service frequency to rural areas• Customer/user becomes the focus• The price of transport is dramatically lower in the

North than the South

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Cameroon Study Policy Implications

• Support of a more competitive environment can have a large pay off.

• In these cases infrastructure was not an issue - if anything the quality of infrastructure was worse in the North.

• When transport is provided as it is in the North it is possible to start thinking about introducing subsidy on remote and economically unviable routes.

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Further research papers are available on the TRL transport-links website: . http://www.transport-links.org/transport_links/index.asp