freight market chartpack - oct 2016

Freight Market

Oct 2016

This report has been produced for general information. Whilst care has been taken in the

production of this report, no liability or responsibility can be accepted for any loss incurred in any

way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information contained herein.

Contact : Daejin Lee / [email protected] / + 82 10 3462 5311

mailto:[email protected]

Baltic Dry Index & Forward Freight Agreement

2

Spot Market Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Monthly % YTD Yearly %

Trans Pacific 5984 7618 7603 ▼0% 5158 ▼13%

Trans Atlantic 5656 7132 8082 ▲13% 5535 ▼22%

Fronthaul 9871 10973 11785 ▲7% 9093 ▼20%

Backhaul 2759 4119 4376 ▲6% 2138 ▼6%

Dry Bulk Earning Av. 6097 7501 7870 ▲5% 5448 ▼20%

FFA Market Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Monthly % YTD Yearly %

BDI Spot 673 828 868 ▲5% 601 ▼20%

Cal 2016 616 628 638 ▲2% 590 ▼35%

Cal 2017 706 702 719 ▲2% 683 ▼31%

Cal 2018 814 816 819 ▲0% 795 ▼25%

Cal 2019 897 900 896 ▼0% 877 ▼21%

※ Source: Baltic Exchange, HJS


BDI 870p

17@ 720p

18@ 820p

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16

Pt BDI Cal17 Cal18 Cal19

* 10 days moving average graph


Weighted Dry Index

3 ※ Source: Baltic Exchange, HJS

Weighting - Fleet Cape PMX SMX HSZ Dry %

Trans Pacific 1,057 1,299 2,093 1,677 6,126 57%

Trans Atlantic 183 563 835 1,283 2,864 27%

Fronthaul 178 299 165 132 774 7%

Backhaul 212 300 220 166 898 8%

Total 1,631 2,460 3,313 3,258 10,662 100%

Weighted Earning Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Monthly % YTD Yearly %

Capesize 6214 11807 11696 ▼1% 6471 ▼14%

Panamax 5420 5462 6704 ▲23% 4766 ▼17%

Supramax 6732 6869 6710 ▼2% 5462 ▼20%

Handysize 5864 6094 6117 ▲0% 4786 ▼13%

Weighted Dry Index 671 779 804 ▲3% 579 ▼16%

BCPI(commodity price) 872 881 923 ▲5% 816 ▼11%


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16

(Pts) ($/day) BDI Pacific Earning

Atlantic Earning Weighted Dry Index (right)


Baltic Dry Index

Dry Bulk Earning Spread by Size



0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

(pts)

BDI 2013 2014 2015 2016 FFA

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Sector Spread Cape/PMX 20 MA

PMX/SMX 20 MA

SMX/HANDY 20 MA


Atlantic - Pacific Earning Spread

Atlantic - Pacific Earning Spread Seasonality

5

-8000

-4000

0

4000

8000

12000

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

CAPE

PMX

SMX



(3,000)

(2,000)

(1,000)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


CAPE PMX

SMX HSZ


Capesize C5TC & Forward Freight Agreement

6


Trans Pacific 6326 12012 11174 ▼7% 6260 ▼12%

Trans Atlantic 4460 10567 12191 ▲15% 6276 ▼19%

Fronthaul 12090 17420 18445 ▲6% 12682 ▼21%

Backhaul 373 5194 6260 ▲21% 539 N/A

C5TC Average 5996 11376 11576 ▲2% 6441 ▼23%


2Q 2016 6685 6685 6685 - 6171 ▼6%

3Q 2016 6826 7691 8098 ▲5% 7632 ▼30%

4Q 2016 9638 10467 10863 ▲4% 9781 ▼29%

Current Year 6489 6824 7094 ▲4% 6617 ▼29%

Next Year 8433 8534 8651 ▲1% 8396 ▼28%



17@8,600

5TC 11,000

18@10,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


$ per day C5TC Cal17 Cal18



Capesize 5TC average

Capesize Fronthaul Route (Baltic C9)



0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000


CAPE 2013 2014 2015 2016 FFA($/day)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


($/day)

CAPE FH 2013 2014 2015 2016


Capesize Trans Atlantic Route (Baltic C8)

Capesize Trans Pacific Route (Baltic C10)



0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000


($/day)

CAPE TA 2013 2014 2015 2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000


($/day)

CAPE TP 2013 2014 2015 2016


Panamax P4TC & Forward Freight Agreement

9


Trans Pacific 5330 5651 6794 ▲20% 4716 ▼12%

Trans Atlantic 5474 4871 6837 ▲40% 4832 ▼25%

Fronthaul 10120 10178 11489 ▲13% 8872 ▼20%

Backhaul 994 1020 1263 ▲24% 737 ▲29%

P4TC Average 5479 5430 6596 ▲21% 4789 ▼19%


2Q 2016 4899 4899 4899 - 4891 ▼14%

3Q 2016 5998 5769 5746 ▼0% 5378 ▼22%

4Q 2016 6509 6566 6597 ▲0% 5895 ▼20%

Current Year 5120 5078 5077 ▼0% 4820 ▼23%

Next Year 5780 5817 5982 ▲3% 5596 ▼22%



17@ 6,000

4TC 7,000

18@ 6,700

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000


$ per day P4TC Cal17 Cal18



Panamax 4TC average

Panamax Fronthaul Route (Baltic P2A)



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


PMX 2013 2014 2015 2016 FFA

($/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


PMX FH 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)


Panamax Trans Atlantic Route (P1A)

Panamax Trans Pacific Route (Baltic P3A)



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


PMX TA 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


PMX TP 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)


Supramax S6TC & Forward Freight Agreement

12


Trans Pacific 6530 6565 6192 ▼6% 5103 ▼18%

Trans Atlantic 6678 7191 7360 ▲2% 5943 ▼25%

Fronthaul 10822 10469 10854 ▲4% 8803 ▼12%

Backhaul 4098 4288 4450 ▲4% 3115 ▼40%

S6TC Average 7032 7128 7214 ▲1% 5741 ▼21%


2Q 2016 5795 5795 5795 - 5525 ▼22%

3Q 2016 6830 6892 7064 ▲3% 6069 ▼23%

4Q 2016 7005 7089 7295 ▲3% 6239 ▼24%

Current Year 5859 5894 5989 ▲2% 5411 ▼27%

Next Year 6062 5974 6244 ▲5% 5765 ▼24%



17@6,200

6TC 7,500

18@7,000

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000


$ per day S6TC Cal2017 Cal2018



Supramax 6TC average

Supramax Fronthaul Route



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


SMX 2013 2014 2015 2016 FFA($/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


SMX FH 2015 2013 2014 2015($/day)


Supramax Trans Atlantic Route

Supramax Trans Pacific Route



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


SMX TA 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000


SMX TP 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)


Handysize H6TC & Forward Freight Agreement

15


Trans Pacific 5749 6244 6252 ▲0% 4553 ▼8%

Trans Atlantic 6013 5900 5940 ▲1% 5089 ▼18%

Am-Conti 6453 5826 6350 ▲9% 6017 ▼28%

Conti-Am 5573 5974 5529 ▼7% 4162 ▲4%

H6TC Average 5881 6072 6096 ▲0% 4822 ▼14%


2Q 2016 4791 4791 4791 - 4606 ▼19%

3Q 2016 5592 5835 5792 ▼1% 4996 ▼18%

4Q 2016 5640 5844 6015 ▲3% 5184 ▼20%

Current Year 4857 4969 5001 ▲1% 4553 ▼22%

Next Year 5319 5125 5186 ▲1% 4995 ▼22%



Cal17 5,200

H6TC 6000

Cal18 5800

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000


$ per day H6TC Cal2016 Cal2017



Handysize 6TC average

Handysize Fronthaul Route



0

5,000

10,000

15,000


Handy 2013 2014 2015 2016 FFA($/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


Handy FH 2015 2013 2014 2016($/day)


Handy Trans Atlantic Route

Handy Trans Pacific Route



0

5,000

10,000

15,000


Handy TA 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500


Handy TP 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)


18

Thank you

Previous Reports : includes freight forecasts

(1) Bulk Supply : The Seeds of Recovery (Korean / English)

(2) Tanker Supply : Oil Prices and Oversupply (Korean)

(3) Coal Trade Market : The end of the coal era, soon or yet? (Korean / English)

(4) Iron Ore Trade Market : Chinese steel market (Korean)

(5) Understanding Bulk Shipping Market (Korean)

We invite any comments and/or questions you may have. if you need bespoke reports & analysis, we would love to meet specific client needs. To discuss any individual requirements please contact below

Daejin Lee / Commodity Research / Shipping / FFA

Hanjin Shipping

Dir: +82 2 3770 3379 Mob: +82-10-3462-5311

Email: [email protected] / [email protected]

This report has been produced for general information. Whilst care has been taken in the production of this report, no liability or responsibility can be accepted for any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information contained herein. The information in this report may not be reproduced without the written permission of Hanjin Shipping Co., Ltd

본 자료에 수록된 내용은 당사에서 수집한 자료 및 정보를 기초로 작성된 것이나 당사가 그 자료 및 정보의 정확성이나 안정성을 보장할 수는 없으므로 어떠한 경우에도 본 자료는 투자의 결과에 대한 법적 책임 소재에 대한 증빙 자료로 사용될 수 없습니다. 본 자료에 첨부된 모든 자료는 당사의 저작물로서 당사의 동의 없이 어떤 형태로든 복제, 배포, 전송, 변형할 수 없습니다.





freight market chartpack - oct 2016

Data & Analytics