www.gwpcee.org

Policy oriented study on remote sensing agricultural drought monitoring methods

Prof. János Tamás

IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20152 www.gwpcee.org

Activity leader: Prof János Tamás

Partners:

• Hungary (University of Debrecen and GWP HU):

• Applied hydrological remote sensing and GIS;

• Spatial Decision Supporting Systems

• Romania (University of Oradea):

• Geography and Integrated watershed management

• Slovakia (Institute of Hydrology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences):

• Agricultural water management, Soil hydrology

Duration: July 2013 – January 2015

Main objectives:

• RS and GIS based Agricultural Drought Monitoring and Yield Loss Forecasting Method for theimportant crops and fruits (wheat, corn and apple)

• Integration of Agricultural Drought Monitoring and Yield Loss Forecasting Method (ADMYLFM) toagricultural drought management

Basic information

Objectives

• To develop a process, which can provide information forestimating relevant drought indexes and drought relatedagricultural yield losses more effectively from remote sensedspectral data.

• New calculation method, which provides early information onphysical implementation of drought risk levels

• Allow the conversion of different purpose drought indices, such asmeteorological, agricultural and hydrological ones, and more water-saving agricultural land use alternatives

IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20154 www.gwpcee.org

Implementation process

NDVI Time Series

Land use

mask

Calibration with yield statistical

data

Meteorological Data

Calibration with Drought Index

Soil PhysicalData

Calibration with available water

content

SDSSClassification

Plant Specific Drought Risk

Evaluation(1 – 5 risk levels)

• Data acquisition andprocessing

• Identification andcalibration of biomass dataand drought risk levels

• Drought risk evaluationand mapping

Identification and calibration of drought risk level

(Source: KSH and INSSE)

Green: optimal (wet) years

Red: drought affected years

Blue: extreme precipitation

Normalized yield of maize and wheat (2000-2012)

Identification and calibration of drought risk level

Drought risk and signalling NDVI levels for maize and wheat

Drought risk evaluation and mapping

IWA 13th International Specialised Conference on Watershed and River Basin Management - San Francisco, CA, USA , 9-12 Sept 2014. 7

2008

IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20158 www.gwpcee.org

1. Remote sensing toolbox for drought monitoring mapping and yield loss

2. Agricultural Drought Monitoring and Yield Loss Forecasting Method includes five standard remote sensing based drought risk (threshold) levels.

3. The economic effect of yield loss on price

4. Integration of our method to droughtmanagement

Final outputs

IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 20159 www.gwpcee.org

Outcomes• Capacity building “Training for trainers” meeting in Szarvas, Hungary,

21-23. November 2013.

• TV reports

• National consultancy dialogues, Budapes, Hungary

• IWA 13th International Specialised Conference on Watershed andRiver Basin Management - San Francisco, CA, USA , 9-12 Sept 2014

• World Conference on Computers in Agriculture and NaturalResources, University of Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica, July 27th-30th, 2014

• European Geoscience Union General Assembly, 12-17 April 2015

Follow up outcomes:

• 14th International Conference on Environmental Science andTechnology (CEST2015), 3-5 September 2015, Rhodes, Greece

• Hungarian Hydrologist Council, Szombathely, Hungary 1-3. July 2015.

IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 201510 www.gwpcee.org

• The yield loss of wheat and maize can be predicted 6-12 weeks beforeharvest and drought effected sites can be delineated more accurately.

• The impact of agriculture drought on can be diagnosed, which is the mostvital need for stakeholders.

• Facilitates drought intervention activities (Hungarian CathastropeAuthority, Agricultural Ministry, Farmer Chambers))

• A new drought related soil moisture regime in GIS database (Tiszawatershed) to optimize water governance

Added value

IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 201511 www.gwpcee.org

Our method is extendable for other IDMP CEE countries.

In contrast with the conventional agricultural drought indexingmethods, the expected yield loss can be estimated with 250*250 mspatial resolution based on remote sensing data .

The monitoring of drought through the possible yield loss of aspecified crop is not appropriate with low spatial resolutiondatasets, such as fAPAR.

Better spatial resolution with time filtered series, provides smallerdata oscillation and more homogenous changes of NDVI in pixelscale.

Lessons learned and transferability

IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 201512 www.gwpcee.org

The results of 5.5 activities can be strongly link with the follow up proposal (1-2-3-5) !

Further follow up recommendations:

• Extension of the monitoring method and risk signaling system for other crop types and/or new satellite mission (CMOS, PROBE-V) based on TSA image processing

• Developing of better spatial /temporal irrigation strategy

• Interactive web-RS based drought risk and yield loss mapping

• Investigation of the multilateral economic effect of yield losses within and outside CEE region

Follow up

IDMP CEE Final Workshop; 21-22 April, 2015, Bucharest, RomaniaApril 201513 www.gwpcee.org

Thank you!tamas@agr.unideb.hu