forex committee newsletter - phd chamber …phdcci.in/image/data/research bureau-2014/forex...

September 2017

FOREX & FEMA NEWSLETTER

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The daily average monthly turnover in India’s foreign exchange market including merchant and interbank transactions in the category of purchases has decreased to USD 2,048 million in August 2017 from USD 2,249 million in July 2017. In the category of sales, the average daily turnover has also decreased to USD 2,098 million in August 2017 from USD 2,308 million in July 2017. In the month of August 2017, the average exchange rate of rupee against USD stands at 63.9. The average exchange rate of rupee against Japanese yen stands at 58.2. The exchange rate of rupee against Euro has remained at an average of 75.5 in the month of August 2017. While, the average exchange rate of rupee against pound sterling is at 83.0 during August 2017. India’s foreign exchange reserves stands at about USD 402.5 billion as on September 15, 2017 of which Foreign Currency Assets consists of USD 378 billion, Gold reserves at USD 20.6 billion, SDRs at USD 1.5 billion and reserve position in the IMF at USD 2.3 billion. At regulatory front, under the head of Investment by Foreign Portfolio Investors in Corporate Debt Securities, RBI has announced that with effect from October 3, 2017, Masala bonds will no longer form a part of the limit for FPI investments in corporate bonds. They will form a part of the ECBs and will be monitored accordingly. Further, RBI has now decided to remove the threshold for reporting FCY-INR and FCY-FCY forward trades between AD Category-I banks and their clients w.e.f. October 03, 2017. RBI introduces amendments to Master Direction- Financial Services provided by Banks, Directions, 2016 which stated that no bank shall hold more than 10 per cent in the equity of a deposit taking NBFC, provided that this does not apply to a housing finance company. Further, no bank shall make an investment of more than 10 per cent of the unit capital of a Real Estate Investment Trust/Infrastructure Investment Trust subject to overall ceiling of 20 per cent of its net worth permitted for direct investments in shares, convertible bonds/ debentures, units of equity-oriented mutual funds and exposures to Alternative Investment Funds. In addition, no bank shall hold more than 10 per cent of the paid up capital of a company, not being its subsidiary engaged in non-financial services or 10 per cent of the bank’s paid up capital and reserves, whichever is lower. At market front, BSE Sensex closed at 31,730.49 as on 31st August 2017 as against 32,514.94 as on 31st July 2017 30,921.61 registering a growth of (-) 2.4% over previous month. During August 2017, Sensex recorded an intraday high of 32,686.48 and an intraday low of 31,128.02. While, Nifty closed at 9917.90 as on 31st August 2017 as against 10077.10 as on 31s July 2017 registering a growth of about (-) 1.6% over previous month. During August 2017, Nifty recorded an intraday high of 10137.85 and an intraday low of 9740.10. On the other hand, the price of gold spot average price per 10 grams has increased marginally to Rs. 28896 in August 2017 as against Rs. 28162 in July 2017. The price of crude oil has also increased to USD 50.63 per barrel in August 2017 as compared to USD 47.86 per barrel in July 2017.


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India’s foreign exchange market turnover (daily average)

The daily average monthly turnover in India’s foreign exchange market including merchant and interbank transactions in the category of purchases has decreased to USD 2,048 million in August 2017 from USD 2,249 million in July 2017. In the category of sales, the average daily turnover has also decreased to USD 2,098 million in August 2017 from USD 2,308 million in July 2017.

Daily average monthly turnover in India’s foreign exchange market (USD million)

Source: PHD Research Bureau compiled from RBI

Overview of Indian rupee

In the month of August 2017, the average exchange rate of rupee against USD stands at 63.9. The average exchange rate of rupee against Japanese yen stands at 58.2. The exchange rate of rupee against Euro has remained at an average of 75.5 in the month of August 2017. While, the average exchange rate of rupee against pound sterling is at 83.0 during August 2017.

Trend of rupee against various currencies (August 2017)


Indian rupee

overview

Average Exchange

rate of rupee

against USD

stands at 63.9 in

August 2017,

against pound

sterling at 83,

against Euro at

75.5 and against

Japanese Yen at

58.2.


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India’s foreign exchange reserves reaches an all time high at USD 402 billion since 1950-51

India’s foreign exchange reserves recorded highest at about USD 402.5 billion as on September 15,2017 since 1950-51. The foreign exchange reserves were USD 2.2 billion in the period ending financial year 1950-51. The foreign exchange reserves reached in double digits to USD 19.3 billion in the period ending 1993-94, which further increased to USD 113 billion in the ending period of 2003-04. India’s foreign exchange reserve drastically increased to USD 309.7 billion as on period ending 2007-08.

India’s foreign exchange reserves (USD billion) since 1950-51

Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from RBI. The data for respective years is ending year figure for the respective financial year. *Data as on 15-Sep-2017.


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Monthly trend of rupee exchange rate (high and low) against currencies In the month of August 2017, the exchange rate of rupee against USD recorded highest at 64.24, while it registered lowest at 63.63. The exchange rate of rupee against pound registered highest at 84.64 and lowest at 81.93. In case of Euro currency, exchange rate of rupee recorded highest at 76.75 and lowest at 74.86. The exchange rate of rupee against Japanese yen recorded highest at 58.81 and lowest at 57.53.

Indian rupee overview (August 2017)


Foreign exchange reserves

India’s foreign exchange reserves stands at about USD 402.5 billion as on September 15, 2017 of which Foreign Currency Assets consists of USD 378 billion, Gold reserves at USD 20.6 billion, SDRs at USD 1.5 billion and reserve position in the IMF at USD 2.3 billion. Foreign exchange reserves as on September 15, 2017 (USD Billion)


402.5378

20.61.5 2.3

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Foreign Exchange Reserves

Foreign Currency Assets

Gold reserves SDRs Reserve position in the IMF

INR against foreign currency

Open High Low Close

USD 64.06 64.24 63.63 64.01

Pound Sterling 84.62 84.64 81.93 82.69

Euro 75.74 76.75 74.86 76.04

Japanese Yen 58.12 58.81 57.53 57.91

Exchange rate of rupee

against USD stood

highest at 64.24 and

lowest at 63.63 in

August 2017.

India’s foreign

exchange

reserves are at

about USD 402.5

billion as on

September 15,

2017


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Trend of USD against Japanese Yen, British Pound and Euro in August2017

Trend of USD against Japanese Yen (August 2017)

Source: PHD Research Bureau compiled from x-rates.

Trend of USD against British Pound (August 2017)


Trend of USD against Euro (August 2017)



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Export Data Processing and Monitoring System (EDPMS) Issuance of Electronic Bank Realisation Certificate (eBRC)

Attention of Authorised Dealer Category-I (AD Category-I) banks is invited by RBI to the provisions contained in the Master Direction No. 16/2015-16 dated January 01, 2016 related to implementation and operationalisation of Export Data Processing and Monitoring System (EDPMS) of RBI as also provisions contained in A P (DIR Series) Circular No. 15 dated July 28, 2014 in terms of which reporting of data related to realisation of export proceeds i.e. ENC and Schedule 3 to 6 files was discontinued with effect from the first fortnight of September 2014 after implementation of EDPMS. Attention of AD Category-I banks is also invited to the provisions contained in A P (DIR Series) Circular No. 74 dated May 26, 2016 in terms of which they were advised to carry out appropriate changes in their IT system / operating procedure immediately, report subsequent export transactions in EDPMS and also capture the details of advance remittances (including old outstanding inward remittances) received for exports in EDPMS.AD Category-I banks are directed to update the EDPMS with data of export proceeds on “as and when realised basis” and, with effect from October 16, 2017 generate Electronic Bank Realisation Certificate (eBRC) only from the data available in EDPMS, to ensure consistency of data in EDPMS and consolidated eBRC

Removal of the threshold for reporting FCY-INR and FCY-FCY forward trades between AD Category-I banks and their clients w.e.f. October 03, 2017 by RBI

Attention of Authorised Dealer Category – I (AD Category-I) banks has been invited by RBI to circular no.FMD.MSRG.No.75/02.05.002/2012-13 dated March 13, 2013 wherein a threshold of USD 1 million, and equivalent thereof in other currencies, was stipulated for reporting Foreign Currency (FCY)-INR and FCY-FCY forward and options trades between AD Category-I banks and their clients to the Trade Repository (TR). Subsequently, Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL), in consultation with Reserve Bank on June 02, 2016, had informed its members the removal of this threshold limit for reporting FCY-INR and FCY-FCY option trades w.e.f. July 04, 2016. It has now been decided to remove the threshold for reporting FCY-INR and FCY-FCY forward trades between AD Category-I banks and their clients w.e.f. October 03, 2017. As a one-time measure, in order to update the outstanding balances in the Trade Repository (TR), AD Category-I banks are advised to report the following to the CCIL by October 06, 2017:

OTC currency option transactions between AD Category-I banks and their clients undertaken before April 02, 2013 and outstanding as on September 29, 2017.

OTC currency option transactions between AD Category-I banks and their clients, with value below USD 1 million and equivalent thereof in other currencies, undertaken in the period April 02, 2013 - July 03, 2016 and outstanding as on September 29, 2017.

FII Recent regulatory developments


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Currency forward transactions between AD Category-I banks and their clients, with value below USD 1 million and equivalent thereof in other currencies, and outstanding as on September 29, 2017.

Investment by Foreign Portfolio Investors in Corporate Debt Securities

Attention of Authorised Dealer Category-I (AD Category-I) banks is invited to Schedule 5 to the Foreign Exchange Management (Transfer or Issue of Security by a Person Resident outside India) Regulations, 2000 notified vide Notification No. FEMA.20/2000-RB dated May 3, 2000, as amended from time to time. Currently, the limit for investment by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in corporate bonds is INR 244,323 crore. This includes issuance of Rupee denominated bonds overseas (Masala Bonds) by resident entities of INR 44,001 crore (including pipeline). The Masala Bonds are presently reckoned both under Combined Corporate Debt Limit (CCDL) for FPI and External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs). On a review, and to further harmonise norms for Masala Bonds issuance with the ECB guidelines, the following changes are made: With effect from October 3, 2017, Masala bonds will no longer form a part of the limit for FPI investments in corporate bonds. They will form a part of the ECBs and will be monitored accordingly. Eligible Indian entities proposing to issue Masala Bonds may approach Foreign Exchange Department, Reserve Bank of India, Central Office, Mumbai as required in terms of A. P. (DIR Series) Circular No.47 dated June 7, 2017. The amount of INR 44,001 crore arising from shifting of Masala bonds will be released for FPI investment in corporate bonds over the next two quarters

Limit for FPI Investments in Corporate Bonds

Amount (INR crore)

1. Current FPI limits for corporate bonds (including masala bonds) 2,44,323

(a) of which Masala bonds (including pipeline) 44,001

2. FPI limit after shifting Masala bonds to ECB (1-(a)) 2,00,322

3. Additional limit for Q3 FY18 27,000

4. FPI limit for corporate bonds from 03 Oct 2017 (2+3) 2,27,322

of which reserved for investment by long term FPIs in infrastructure 9,500

5. Additional limit for Q4 FY18 17,001

6. FPI limit for corporate bonds from January 01, 2018 (4+5) 2,44,323

of which reserved for investment by long term FPIs in infrastructure 9,500

An amount of INR 9,500 crore in each quarter will be available only for investment in infrastructure sector by long term FPIs (i.e., Sovereign Wealth Funds, Multilateral Agencies, Endowment Funds, Insurance Funds, Pension Funds and Foreign Central Banks). The definition of ‘Infrastructure’ shall be the same as defined under the Master Direction on ECBs issued by the Reserve Bank of India. Long term FPIs will continue to be eligible to invest in sectors other than infrastructure. All other existing conditions for investment by FPIs in the debt market remain unchanged. Issuance of Rupee Denominated Bonds (RDBs) Overseas Attention of Authorized Dealer Category - I (AD Category - I) banks has been invited by RBI to the provisions contained in paragraphs 2 and 8 of A.P. (DIR Series) Circular No.60 dated April 13, 2016 on


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issuance of Rupee denominated bonds overseas and paragraphs 3.2 and 3.3.9 of Master Direction No.5 dated January 1, 2016 on “External Commercial Borrowings, Trade Credit, Borrowing and Lending in Foreign Currency by Authorised Dealers and Persons other than Authorised Dealers”, as amended from time to time.

It has been decided by RBI, in consultation with the Government of India, to exclude issuances of RDBs from the limit for investments by FPIs in corporate bonds with effect from October 3, 2017 vide A. P. (DIR Series) Circular No. 05 dated September 22, 2017. Consequently, reporting requirement in terms of paragraph 8 (additional email reporting of RDB transactions for onward reporting to depositories) of A.P. (DIR Series) Circular No. 60 dated April 13, 2016 has been dispensed with. However, it should be noted that the reporting of RDBs will continue as per the extant ECB norms.

RBI introduces amendments to Master Direction- Financial Services provided by Banks, Directions, 2016 Considering the suggestions and queries received from SEBI, banks and other stakeholders, Reserve Bank of India has decided to make certain amendments to Master Direction - Reserve Bank of India (Financial Services provided by Banks) Direction No.DBR.FSD.No.101/24.01.041/2015-16 dated May 26, 2016. In pursuance of these changes, Para 5(a)(v) of the Master Direction on Financial Services provided by Banks is amended to read as under: “v No bank shall

a) Hold more than 10 per cent in the equity of a deposit taking NBFC. Provided that this does not apply to a housing finance company.

b) Make an investment of more than 10 per cent of the unit capital of a Real Estate Investment Trust/Infrastructure Investment Trust subject to overall ceiling of 20 per cent of its net worth permitted for direct investments in shares, convertible bonds/ debentures, units of equity-oriented mutual funds and exposures to Alternative Investment Funds.

c) Hold more than 10 per cent of the paid up capital of a company, not being its subsidiary engaged in non-financial services or 10 per cent of the bank’s paid up capital and reserves, whichever is lower.

Provided investments in excess of 10 per cent but not exceeding 30 per cent of the paid up share capital of such investee company shall be permissible in the following circumstances:

i. the investee company is engaged in non-financial activities permitted for banks in terms of Section 6(1) of the Banking Regulation Act, 1949; or

ii. the additional acquisition is through restructuring of debt or to protect the banks’ interest on loans/investments made to a company. The bank shall submit a time bound action plan for disposal of such shares within a specified period to RBI.

d) Hold along with its subsidiaries, associates or joint ventures or entities directly or indirectly

controlled by the bank; and mutual funds managed by Asset Management Companies (AMCs) controlled by the bank, more than 20 per cent of the paid up share capital of an investee company engaged in non-financial services. However, this cap does not apply to the cases mentioned at 5(a)(v)(c)(i) and (ii) above.

e) A new Para 21(c) is being inserted after Para 21(b), which reads as under: No bank shall

become a Professional Clearing Member of the commodity derivatives segment of SEBI


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recognised exchanges unless it satisfies the prudential criteria (as given in Para 21(a) (i) to (iv)) and shall do so subject to the following conditions:

The bank shall satisfy the membership criteria of the stock exchanges and comply with the regulatory norms laid down by SEBI and the respective stock exchanges.

The bank shall, with the approval of Board, put in place effective risk control measures, prudential norms on risk exposure in respect of each of its trading members, taking into account their net worth, business turnover, etc.

The bank shall not undertake trading in the derivative segment of the commodity exchange on its own account and shall restrict itself only to clearing and settlement transactions done by the trading members/ clients on the exchange.

The bank shall take exposure on its trading members as per the policy approved by its board.

The bank may fulfill pay-in obligations arising out of trades executed by its clients, as clearing member of the exchange subject to the condition that the total exposure which the bank would take on its registered clients should be determined by the Board in relation to the net worth of the bank and should be monitored regularly. However, the bank shall not meet pay-in obligations of any transaction other than what is required in its role as a Professional Clearing Member.

The bank shall ensure strict compliance with various margin requirements as may be prescribed by the Bank’s board or the Commodity Exchanges as also the extant RBI guidelines regarding guarantees issued on behalf of commodity brokers.”

RBI releases Half Yearly Report on Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves for October-March 2016-17

The Reserve Bank of India publishes half-yearly reports on management of foreign exchange reserves for bringing about more transparency and enhancing the level of disclosure. These reports are prepared half yearly with reference to the position as at end-March and end-September each year. The present report (28th in the series) is with reference to the position as at end-March 2017. During the half year under review, reserves decreased to USD 366.2 billion as at end-October 2016, and to USD 361.1 billion as at end-November 2016. Reserves further declined to USD 358.9 billion as at end-December 2016. Subsequent months witnessed an increase in the reserves, which stood at USD 362.9 billion as at end-January 2017, USD 364.2 billion as at end-February 2017, and USD 369.9 billion as at end of March 2017 Although both US dollar and Euro are intervention currencies and the Foreign Currency Assets (FCA) are maintained in major currencies, the foreign exchange reserves are denominated and expressed in US dollar only. Movements in the FCA occur mainly on account of purchases and sales of foreign exchange by the RBI, income arising out of the deployment of the foreign exchange reserves, external aid receipts of the Central Government and changes on account of revaluation of the assets. Forward Outstanding— The net forward assets (receivables) of the Reserve Bank in domestic foreign exchange market stood at USD 10,835 million as at the end of March 2017. Adequacy of Reserves-- At the end of March 2017, the import cover decreased to 11.3 months from 12.0 months at end-September 2016. The ratio of short-term debt to foreign exchange reserves, which was 21.8 per cent at end-September 2016, increased to 23.8 per cent at end-March 2017. The ratio of volatile capital flows (defined to include cumulative portfolio inflows and outstanding short-


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term debt) to reserves increased from 85.8 per cent at end-September 2016 to 88.1 per cent at end-March 2017. Management of Gold Reserves— The Reserve Bank holds 557.77 tonnes of gold; of which, 265.49 tonnes are held overseas in safe custody with the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Gold as a share of the total foreign exchange reserves in value terms (USD) stood at about 5.37 per cent as at end-March, 2017.

Movement in Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million)

Month End FCA Gold SDR RTP Forex Reserves

September-16 346711 21406 1487 2386 371990

(1066)

October-16 341945 20461 1462 2345 366212

(1066)

November-16 337382 19983 1442 2314 361121

(1065)

December-16 336583 18584 1432 2299 358898

(1066)

January-17 339932 19248 1448 2324 362953

(1065)

February-17 340586 19914 1443 2316 364259

(1066)

March-17 346319 19869 1447 2321 369955

(1066) Source: RBI, Notes: (i) FCA (Foreign Currency Assets): FCA are maintained as a multi-currency portfolio comprising major currencies, such as, US dollar, Euro, Pound sterling, Japanese yen, etc. and are valued in terms of US dollars. FCA excludes (a) investment in bonds issued by IIFC (UK) (b) SDR holdings of Reserve Bank, which is included under SDR and (c) amount lent to Maldives under SAARC Swap Arrangement. SDR (Special Drawing Rights): (Values in SDR have been indicated in parentheses.) RTP refers to the Reserve Tranche Position in the IMF. Difference, if any, is due to rounding off.

RBI releases its Annual Report 2016-17 Headwinds from the global slowdown and the transient impact of demonetisation notwithstanding, the Indian economy demonstrated resilience in 2016-17, marked by moderate expansion and macroeconomic stability - low inflation, and improvement in current account and fiscal deficits. Financial markets priced in global and domestic shocks and volatility ebbed, with excess liquidity conditions induced by demonetisation persisting through the second half of the year. In this milieu, the outlook for growth in 2017-18 has brightened, with the likelihood of another favourable monsoon and the implementation of major policy reforms – led by the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from July 1, 2017 - that would help to unlock bottlenecks to growth. Assessment for the year 2016-17: In 2016-17, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth moderated due to slowdown in gross capital formation as waning business confidence and flagging entrepreneurial energies took their toll on the appetite for new investment. On the other hand, both government and private consumption accelerated and held up aggregate demand. While the turnaround in the growth of agriculture paved the way for a pick-up in rural demand, urban demand remained resilient due to hikes in salary, wages and pensions of the central government employees. There has also been an improvement in households’ financial savings, post demonetisation.


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On the production side, agriculture and allied activities rebounded sharply in 2016-17. As the infrastructure sector is widely perceived to hold the key to revival of growth, top priority was accorded to addressing environmental clearances, land acquisition issues and other. structural bottlenecks associated with project implementation, which led to a reduction in the number of stalled projects and cost overruns in central sector infrastructure projects during 2016- 17. Inflation picked up during the first four months of 2016-17 driven by an upsurge in food prices, outweighing favourable base effects. The asset quality of the banking sector continued to be a concern during 2016-17. In the aftermath of the asset quality review (AQR) undertaken by the Reserve Bank beginning July 2015 and concomitantly with better recognition of non-performing assets (NPAs), the asset quality of banks, particularly the PSBs, deteriorated sharply. As the banking sector struggled with the sizeable volume of NPAs, the Reserve Bank continued its efforts to fortify the regulatory framework through significant policy interventions for improving the banking system’s ability to deal with distress Post demonetisation, the pace of monetary transmission from the policy repo rate to banks’ lending rates accelerated significantly, aided by the increase in the share of low cost current account and saving account (CASA) deposits in bank funding. However, the transmission to actual lending rates was uneven across sectors, reflecting sector-specific credit risk dynamics. During 2016-17, the benchmark Indian equity indices, viz., BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 increased by 16.9 per cent and 18.5 per cent, respectively, as against some contraction in the previous year. The stock market gained on account of optimism over the Union Budget proposals, passage of the GST Bill, favourable monsoon, expectations of steady progress of economic reforms, better macroeconomic data, higher than expected Q3 earnings of companies and huge buying by institutional investors amid positive cues from global equity markets. Highlights of the RBI’s Annual Report 2016-17 Economic Review: In the midst of global slowdown accentuated by the vicissitudes of financial markets and the transient impact of demonetisation, the Indian economy turned out resilient, marked by both internal and external stability. While economic growth moderated in 2016-17, there were visible signs of improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals – low inflation, and modest current account deficit and fiscal deficit. Going forward, even as the recent launch of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) gains traction across the country, strengthening fiscal consolidation, particularly at the sub-national level; reviving bank credit, and bringing investment back on rails, remain a challenge. Monetary policy operations: Fundamental institutional changes impacted monetary policy in India following the amendment to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act, 1934, effected on June 27, 2016. The policy rate was reduced by 50 bps during 2016-17 and the policy stance shifted from accommodative to neutral in February 2017. Even as inflation undershot the target of 5 per cent set for Q4 of 2016-17, monetary policy operations had to contend with massive surplus liquidity conditions, necessitating a mix of conventional and unconventional instruments of liquidity management. In spite of faster transmission of policy rate changes to marginal cost of funds based lending rates (MCLRs), pass-through to actual lending rates remained incomplete. Credit delivery and Financial inclusion: The Reserve Bank placed greater emphasis on effective credit delivery during the year by intensifying its ongoing efforts under the financial inclusion plans as well as adopting innovative approaches in expanding credit and spreading financial literacy. The


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major thrust was on operationalising a market mechanism for enhancing priority sector credit, strengthening the business correspondent (BC) model through BC registry and certification to promote financial inclusion, and enhancing financial literacy through a digital focus in literacy camps, experimenting with ground level camps, capacity building of financial literacy counsellors and observation of a financial literacy week. Work is also underway for the formulation of a National Strategy for Financial Inclusion. Financial markets and foreign exchange management: During 2016-17, the Reserve Bank undertook a number of measures for developing various segments of the financial markets. In the money market, the Reserve Bank undertook proactive liquidity management operations, with a view to aligning money market rates with the policy rate for better transmission of monetary policy. Orderly conditions were maintained in the spot, forward and futures segments of the forex market, alongside further liberalisation of the capital account and rationalisation of the reporting requirements to promote ease of doing business. Regulation, supervision and financial stability: During 2016-17, the Indian banking sector had to cope with the concerns about deteriorating asset quality, on the one hand, and a sharp decline in credit growth, on the other, while supporting the government in its initiatives to further reach out to the public and in promoting digitalisation of the modes of payments in the economy. The branch authorisation policy was revised to harmonise the treatment of different forms of bank presence for the purpose of opening banking outlets in under-served areas. Empowered by requisite legislative provisions put in place by the government, the Reserve Bank focused on strengthening the institutional framework to address asset quality concerns by improving the recovery process and the early response mechanism. Having gained experience with the licensing of small finance and payments banks, the Reserve Bank explored the scope of introducing more differentiated banks such as ‘wholesale and long-term finance banks’ and also examined the regulatory challenges posed by innovations by Fin Tech entities in the financial landscape. Apart from focusing on the supervision of financial conglomerates and early response to asset quality deterioration, the Reserve Bank formalised a framework for taking enforcement action against banks for non-compliance with guidelines and instructions issued by it. For ensuring timely and effective redressal of customer grievances in non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), the Reserve Bank proposes to formulate an appropriate Ombudsman Scheme for NBFCs. Public Debt Management: The Reserve Bank successfully managed the market borrowing requirements of the central and state governments during 2016-17 in an orderly manner in the face of multiple challenges such as glide path for reduction in Held to Maturity(HTM) category and Statutory Liquidity Ratio(SLR), supply concerns over increased state government issuances, issuances of UDAY bonds and global uncertainties. The borrowing programme was conducted in line with the debt management strategy of low cost, risk mitigation and market development while factoring in domestic as well as global economic and financial conditions. Currency management: Currency management during 2016-17 was geared towards managing the process of demonetisation of specified bank notes effected in early November 2016 and the subsequent remonetisation by making available adequate quantity of banknotes to meet the legitimate demand of the public in the shortest possible time. Sustained efforts continued to be made towards indigenisation of banknotes production with sophisticated security features.


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Prospects for 2017-18 : Global growth is gaining traction in 2017-18 with the recovery, driven primarily by a cyclical upturn in investment, manufacturing and trade. Tailwinds are also expected from the improving performance of emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). However, the path and pace of global growth will likely be shaped by structural factors, viz., the inwardlooking protectionist policies in advanced economies, low productivity growth and high income inequality impinging on the cyclical upturn. Against the backdrop of these external developments, strengthening external demand will likely play a role in supporting the domestic economy. Favourable domestic conditions are mainly expected to enable a quicker pace of overall economic activity during the year. The expected normal monsoon and the resultant replenishment of reservoirs, policy initiatives of the government such as hike in MSPs and increasing crop insurance coverage are likely to help in boosting crop production and supporting rural demand. The implementation of HRA as per the recommendation of the 7th CPC for central government employees from July 2017 and the possibility of its implementation at the state level should strengthen urban consumption demand. Headline inflation is forecasted in the range of 2.0-3.5 per cent in the first half of 2017-18 and 3.5-4.5 per cent in the second half. The continuing increase in currency in circulation on the back of remonetisation is likely to reduce the magnitude of the liquidity overhang during the course of the year. Notwithstanding the rapid remonetisation process, currency demand appears to have attained a new normal (currently around 87 per cent of the pre-demonetisation peak) in view of the sharp increase in electronic modes of payments since demonetisation. In the fiscal sphere, while the gains to growth, efficiency and tax buoyancy over the medium term from the recent implementation of GST are unequivocally recognised, near-term uncertainties with regard to revenue mobilisation therefrom – which could impact fiscal consolidation at both centre and state levels – cannot be ruled out as this fundamental reform gains pan-India traction. In the external sector, a slump in export growth and an increase in imports widened the trade deficit to US$ 40 billion in Q1 of 2017-18, the highest since Q2 of 2013-14. The evolution of terms of trade is likely to be largely shaped by the outlook for oil production in the US and compliance with the extended production cuts announced by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Even though the outlook among major trade partner economies entails a modest expansion, increasing recourse to protectionist measures in advanced economies could impose a challenging business environment for exports. In the banking arena, the actions of the central government authorising the Reserve Bank to direct banking companies to resolve specific stressed assets by initiating insolvency resolution process are expected to significantly improve the resolution of stressed assets, particularly in consortium or multiple banking arrangements. RBI publishes report of the Household Finance Committee In pursuance of the discussions in the Sub Committee of the Financial Stability and Development Council (FSDC-SC) held on April 26, 2016 a committee was set up to look at various facets of household finance in India. The Committee chaired by Dr. Tarun Ramadorai, Professor of Financial Economics, Imperial college London, had representation from all the financial sector regulators, namely, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) and Pension Fund Regulatory and


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Development Authority (PFRDA). Highlighting the unique aspects of Indian households’ financial decision-making, the Committee has set out several recommendations on enabling better participation by Indian households in formal financial markets, including a Regulatory Sandbox for assessing the role of new financial technologies and products. The distinctive features of Indian household balance sheets are:

A large fraction of the wealth of Indian households is in the form of physical assets (in particular, gold and real estate). This is unusual in the international context, and especially unusual for younger households, and for households in the bottom 40% of the wealth distribution, i.e., those with the lowest amounts of gross assets.

Despite the high holdings of real estate, mortgage penetration is low early in life, and subsequently rises as households age. This is also at variance with Indian households’ counterparts in other countries, where debt has a characteristically hump-shaped pattern over the lifecycle. Indian households tend to borrow later in life and are more likely to reach retirement age with positive debt balances, which is a source of risk given that they are no longer earning income during these years.

Social arrangements in which households bequest housing wealth to future generations and in turn receive support during retirement are an underlying determinant of these patterns. Such traditional approaches to household financial management have likely evolved over time as a rational response to prevailing economic conditions. We note, however, that these traditional structures are increasingly under pressure from shifting demographic patterns, social norms, and changing economic conditions, introducing risks to economic well-being especially as households age.

The Indian household finance landscape is distinctive through the near total absence of pension wealth. Pension accounts and investment-linked life insurance products exist, but they are only used frequently by households located in a small group of states, while in most other states, the contribution of pensions wealth to household wealth is negligible.

High levels of unsecured debt, and perhaps more importantly, debt taken from non-institutional sources such as moneylenders. Such debt generates high costs for Indian households, and as we document later in the report, is likely to lead to households becoming trapped in a long cycle of interest repayments. We note that this phenomenon has been well-documented over the decades, but nevertheless remains stubbornly persistent.

There are low levels of insurance penetration (life and non-life) despite numerous sources of risk such as rainfall (leading to income shocks in largely agrarian segments of the population), health shocks, and catastrophes such as floods or cyclones.

There is a strong negative correlation between participation in insurance and the incidence of non-institutional source debt, suggesting that households are dealing with risks through high-cost borrowing ex-post as opposed to insuring against such risks ex-ante. We find that this is a costly approach for households, as high interest payments on informal debt impose substantially greater costs on Indian households relative to the (counterfactual) policy of purchasing actuarially fair insurance.

This is an important observation, since it suggests that efforts to reduce informal lending will likely fail in an environment in which households are not sufficiently well-insured against risks. Some of these risks could be mitigated through strengthening the public provision of health and social welfare services. In addition, there is a finding could arise from tight constraints on household budgets which do not permit them to take on insurance ex-ante; or as a consequence of adverse selection, moral hazard, or other issues causing premiums in the insurance market to become unaffordable for households.


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RBI introduces supply of INR 200 notes

The Reserve Bank of India has introduced the INR 200 denomination notes. Introduction of this denomination is expected to facilitate exchange transactions for the common man and provide complete series of denomination for transactions at the lower end. These notes are available only through select RBI offices and banks as is normal when a new denomination of notes is introduced and the supply increases gradually. However, the production of these notes is being ramped up by the currency printing presses, and over time as more notes are printed, it will be distributed across the country through the banking channels and will be available for public in adequate quantity.

RBI releases Quarterly Statistics on Deposits and Credit of Scheduled Commercial Banks

The Reserve Bank of India released the Quarterly Statistics on Deposits and Credit of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) as on June 30, 2017. The data for this quarterly survey have been collected from all SCBs, including Regional Rural Banks (RRBs). Data on aggregate deposits, with break-ups as per types of deposits and total credit classified by states, districts, centres, population groups and bank groups, are provided. Highlights:

Deposits and credit of SCBs recorded higher growth (y-o-y) in June 2017 as compared with March 2017.

Improvement in deposit growth was observed in urban and metropolitan areas, while growth in rural deposits declined for the second successive quarter.

Bank credit growth was higher across all population groups and notably in non-metropolitan areas.

Metropolitan branches/ offices constituted around 57 per cent of total business (aggregate deposits + bank credit) of all SCBs, followed by urban branches/ offices with a share of less than 20 per cent.

Banks continued to enjoy higher share of current and savings accounts (CASA) deposits in the June 2017 quarter.

Private sector banks continued to lead business growth both in terms of deposits (19.7 per cent) and credit (20.3 per cent), followed by RRBs.

In contrast, deposits with foreign banks contracted for three quarters following demonetisation.

The credit-deposit (C-D) ratio of SCBs at the all-India level declined to 72.8 per cent at end-June 2017 as compared with 73.7 per cent at end-March 2017.

Among major states, the C-D Ratio improved in Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh. RBI releases Quarterly BSR-1: Outstanding Credit of Scheduled Commercial Banks for December 2016' The Reserve Bank of India released the web-publication entitled ‘Quarterly BSR-1: Outstanding Credit of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs), December 2016’. SCBs other than the regional rural banks (RRBs) submit loan-account level data under BSR-1 on a quarterly basis while the RRBs report these data annually (as at the end of March). BSR-1 captures several dimensions of bank credit such as occupation/activity and organisational sector of the borrower, type of account, and interest rates. Data are presented at bank group, population group, state and district levels.


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Highlights:

Size-wise distribution of bank loans is highly skewed with 12,005 large accounts (credit limit of above INR 100 crore) constituting a share of 31.1 per cent of total credit in December 2016 whereas the share of nearly 79 million small-size loan accounts (credit limit of INR 25,000- INR 2,00,000) was only 7 per cent.

Agriculture, industry and personal housing loans had shares of 11.9 per cent, 39.7 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively, in the total bank credit (the corresponding shares in the previous quarter were 12.1 per cent, 40.1 per cent and 10.6 per cent, respectively.

Among the institutional sectors, households had 44.0 per cent share in total credit, followed by private corporations which accounted for another 36.7 per cent.

At the aggregate level, the weighted average lending rate (WALR) declined by 6 basis points (bps) during the quarter to 11.20 per cent in December 2016. The WALR for loans to industry declined by 7 bps during the quarter.

Private sector banks added 1.67 million loan accounts to their credit portfolios. On the other hand, the number of loan accounts with nationalised banks declined by 0.46 million.

The share of private sector banks in total credit rose to 26.9 per cent in December 2016 (26.4 per cent in the previous quarter) at the cost of nationalised banks.

RBI releases 2017 list of Domestic Systemically Important Banks (D-SIBs)

In addition to the SBI and ICICI Bank, which continue to be identified as Domestic Systemically Important Banks (DSIBs), the Reserve Bank of India has also identified HDFC Bank as a D-SIB, under the same bucketing structure as last year. The additional Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) requirement for D-SIBs has already been phased-in from April 1, 2016 and will become fully effective from April 1, 2019. The additional CET1 requirement will be in addition to the capital conservation buffer. The D-SIB Framework requires the Reserve Bank to disclose the names of banks designated as D-SIBs every year in August starting from 2015 and place these banks in appropriate buckets depending upon their Systemic Importance Scores (SISs).

The updated list of D-SIBs is as follows- Bucket Banks Additional Common Equity Tier 1

requirement as a percentage of Risk Weighted Assets (RWAs) for

FY 2017-18

Additional Common Equity Tier 1 requirement applicable from April

1, 2018 (as per phase-in arrangement)

5 - 0.50% 0.75%

4 - 0.40% 0.60%

3 State Bank of India 0.30% 0.45%

2 - 0.20% 0.30%

1 ICICI Bank 0.10% 0.15%

HDFC Bank* -

• D-SIB surcharge for HDFC Bank will be applicable from April 1, 2018.


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July 2017 IIP grows at 1.2%

Growth in industry output, as measured in terms of IIP, for the month of July 2017 stands at 1.2% as compared to (-)0.17 % in June 2017. The growth in the three sectors mining, manufacturing and electricity in July 2017 stands at 4.8 %, 0.1 % and 6.5 % respectively over July 2016. The cumulative growth in these three sectors during April-July 2017-18 over the corresponding period of 2016-17 has been 2.1 %, 1.3 % and 5.6 % respectively. Primary goods growth stands at 2.3 %, capital goods growth stands at (-)1%, intermediate goods growth stands at (-)1.8%, infrastructure/ construction goods growth stands at 3.7%, consumer durables growth stands at (-)1.3% and consumer non-durables growth stands at 3.4% during July 2017 as compared to the previous year.

August 2017 CPI inflation stands at 3.36% The all India general CPI inflation (Combined) for August 2017 stands at 3.36% as compared to 2.36% in July 2017. The inflation rates for rural and urban areas for August 2017 are 3.30% and 3/.35% respectively, as compared to 2.41% and 2.17% respectively, for July 2017. Rate of inflation during August 2017 for sugar and confectionery stands at 7.35%, pan and tobacco at 6.85%, cereals and products at 3.87%, milk and products at 3.58%, egg at (-)1.67%, spices at (-)1.74%, pulses and products at (-)24.43% etc. August 2017 WPI inflation stands at 3.24% Driven by increase in the prices of food articles, vegetables, onion, petrol and LPG, WPI inflation stands at 3.24% in August 2017 as compared 1.88% in July 2017. The index for this major group rose by 1.9% to 134.9 (provisional) from 132.4 (provisional) for the previous month. The WPI inflation stands at 3.24% in August 2017 as compared to 1.88% in July 2017, 0.9% in June 2017, 2.26% in May 2017, 3.85% in April 2017 and 5.11% in March 2017 The increase in WPI inflation in the month of July 2017 is attributed to rise in the prices of onion (88.46%), vegetables (44.91%), petrol (24.55%), food articles (5.75%) and LPG (5.33%). ECBs stand at USD 1.9 billion during July 2017 Indian firms have raised about USD 1.9 billion through external commercial borrowings (ECBs) by automatic and approval route in July 2017 as against USD 1.62 billion in June 2017. The borrowings stood at USD 1.2 billion in July 2016. Merchandize exports and imports grew by 10.3% and 21.1% during August 2017, respectively

India’s merchandize exports have continued with commendable growth rate by registering a tremendous growth figure of 10.29% in August 2017 to value at USD 23.81 billion compared to USD 21.59 billion during August 2016. On the other hand, India’s merchandize imports also witnessed expansion, growing by 21.02% to value at USD 35.46 billion in August 2017 compared to USD 29.31 billion during same period previous year.

Macro-economic indicators


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India’s trade statistics at a glance

Merchandise Feb-17 Mar-17

Apr-17 May-17

June-17

July-17 Aug-17

Exports (USD billion) 24.5 29.2 24.63 24.01 23.56 22.54 21.60

Growth (%) 17.48 27.6 19.77 8.32 4.39 3.94 10.29

Imports (USD billion) 33.4 39.7 37.89 37.86 36.52 33.99 35.46

Growth (%) 21.76 45.2 49.07 33.09 19.01 15.42 21.02

Trade Balance (USD billion) -8.89 -10.44 -13.25 -13.84 -12.95 -11.45 -11.64 Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt of India

Gross Bank Credit grows at 4.7% in July 2017 Gross bank credit grows at 4.7% in July 2017 as against 4.4% in June 2017. The gross bank credit growth stands at 7.7% during July 2016. On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, non-food bank credit increased by 5.3% in July 2017 as compared to 4.8% in June 2017. Credit to agriculture and allied activities increased by 6.8% in July 2017 as against 7.5% in June 2017.

Trends in the secondary market BSE Sensex closed at 31,730.49 as on 31st August 2017 as against 32,514.94 as on 31st July 2017 30,921.61 registering a growth of (-) 2.4% over previous month. During August 2017, Sensex recorded an intraday high of 32,686.48 and an intraday low of 31,128.02.

Movement of BSE Sensex since April 2016 Month Open

High Low Close % change on closing values

over previous month

Apr-16 25,301.70 26,100.54 24,523.20 25,606.62 1.04

May-16 25,565.44 26,837.20 25,057.93 26,667.96 4.14

Jun-16 26,684.46 27,105.41 25,911.33 26,999.72 1.23

July-16 27,064.33 28,240.20 27,034.14 28,051.86 3.8

Aug-16 28,083.08 28,532.25 27,627.97 28,452.17 1.42

Sep-16 28,459.09 29,077.28 27,716.78 27,865.96 -2.06

Oct-16 27,997.29 28,477.65 27,488.30 27,930.21 0.23

Nov-16 27,966.18 28,029.80 25,717.93 26,652.81 -4.57

Dec-16 26,756.66 26,008.57 26,707.81 26,626.46 -0.09

Jan-17 26,711.15 27,980.39 26,447.06 27,655.96 3.86

Feb-17 27,669.08 29,065.31 27,590.10 28,743.32 3.93

Mar-17 28,849.04 29,824.62 28,716.21 29,620.50 3.05

Apr-17 29,737.73 30,184.22 29,241.48 29,918.40 1.0

May-17 30,021.49 31,255.28 29,804.12 31,145.80 4.1

June-17 31,117.09 31,522.87 30,680.66 30,921.61 -0.72

July-17 31,156.04 32,672.66 31,017.11 32,514.94 5.15

Aug-17 32,579.80 32,686.48 31,128.02 31,730.49 -2.41 Source: PHD Research Bureau compiled from BSE Sensex

While, Nifty closed at 9917.90 as on 31st August 2017 as against 10077.10 as on 31s July 2017 registering a growth of about (-) 1.6% over previous month. During August 2017, Nifty recorded an intraday high of 10137.85 and an intraday low of 9740.10.


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Movement of NIFTY since April 2016 Month Open

High Low Close % change on closing values

over previous month

Apr-16 7718.05 7992.00 7516.85 7849.80 1.4

May-16 7822.70 8213.60 7678.35 8160.10 3.95

Jun-16 8179.20 8308.15 8063.90 8287.75 1.56

July-16 8313.05 8674.70 8287.55 8638.50 4.2

Aug-16 8654.30 8601.15 8518.15 8786.20 1.7

Sep-16 8793.60 8968.70 8555.20 8611.15 (-) 1.9

Oct-16 8666.15 8806.95 8506.15 8625.70 0.16

Nov-16 8542.80 8598.45 7916.40 8224.50 -4.65

Dec-16 8244.00 8274.95 7893.80 8185.80 -0.47

Jan-17 8210.10 8672.70 8133.80 8561.30 4.58

Feb-17 8570.35 8982.15 8537.50 8879.60 3.71

Mar-17 8904.40 9218.40 8903.95 9173.75 3.31

Apr-17 9220.60 9367.15 9075.15 9304.05 1.42

May-17 9339.85 9649.60 9285.30 9621.25 3.41

June-17 9603.55 9709.30 9560.80 9520.90 -1.04

July-17 9587.95 10114.85 9543.55 10077.10 5.84

Aug-17 10101.05 10137.85 9740.10 9917.90 (-) 1.57 Source: PHD Research Bureau compiled from NSE.

The price of gold spot average price per 10 grams has increased marginally to Rs. 28896 in August 2017 as against Rs. 28162 in July 2017. The price of crude oil has also increased to USD 50.63 per barrel in August 2017 as compared to USD 47.86 per barrel in July 2017. Trend of price of gold (Rs.) Trend of price of crude oil (USD/bbl)

Source: PHD Research Bureau compiled from Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Government of India and MCX Note: Data for Gold is average spot price per 10 grms monthly.

FI Commodities


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India’s key statistics so far...

S. NO. Indicators August-17

1 Daily average monthly turnover in foreign exchange market *

Purchase (USD billion) 2.04

Sales (USD billion) 2.09

2 Exchange rate of rupee against USD (monthly average)* 63.9

3 Exchange rate of rupee against Pound Sterling (monthly average) * 83

4 Exchange rate of rupee against Euro (monthly average) * 75.5

5 Exchange rate of rupee against Japanese Yen (monthly average) * 58.2

6 Foreign exchange reserves (USD billion)^ 402.5

7 IIP (growth in %)** 1.2

8 CPI inflation (%)* 3.36

9 WPI inflation (%)* 3.24

10 FDI equity inflow (USD billion)*** 10.4

11 FDI equity inflow (% growth)*** 37

12 External Debt (USD billion)@ 472

13 ECBs (USD billion)** 1.9

14 Current account deficit as a % of GDP Q1 FY2018 2.4

15 India’s exports (USD billion) * 21.6

16 Growth of exports (%) * 10.29

17 India’s imports (USD billion)* 35.46

18 Growth of imports (%) * 21.02

19 Trade balance (USD billion)* (-) 11.46

20 BSE Sensex $ 31,730.49

21 Nifty $ 9917.90

22 Repo rate ^^ 6.00%

23 Reverse repo rate^^ 5.75%

24 Cash reserve ratio^^ 4%

25 Statutory liquidity ratio^^ 20% Source: PHD Research Bureau compiled from various sources. *Data for the month of August 2017. ^ Foreign exchange reserves as on September 15, 2017 **Data for month of July 2017, *** Data for April-June FY2018, @Data for the end March 2017, $Data for BSE SENSEX and CNX NIFTY are closing figures of the month of August 2017. ^^Key policy rates such as repo, CRR, reverse repo and SLR pertains to as on 2nd August 2017.


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Disclaimer

“FOREX and FEMA Newsletter” is prepared by PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry to provide a broad view of developments related to forex affairs of the Indian economy. This newsletter may not be reproduced, wholly or partly in any material form, or modified, without prior approval from the Chamber. It may be noted that this newsletter is for information purposes only. Though due care has been taken to ensure accuracy of information to the best of the PHD Chamber’s knowledge and belief, it is strongly recommended that readers should seek specific professional advice before taking any decisions. Please note that the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry does not take any responsibility for outcome of decisions taken as a result of relying on the content of this newsletter. PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry shall in no way, be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission on the part of the Reader or User due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this newsletter. Copyright 2017 PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication including the cover, shall be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of, and acknowledgement of the publisher (PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry).


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PHD Research Bureau

PHD Research Bureau; the research arm of the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry was constituted in 2010 with the objective to review the economic situation and policy developments at sub-national, national and international levels and comment on them in order to update the members from time to time, to present suitable memoranda to the government as and when required, to prepare State Profiles and to conduct thematic research studies on various socio-economic and business developments.

The Research Bureau has been instrumental in forecasting various lead economic indicators national and sub-national. Many of its research reports have been widely covered by media and leading business newspapers.

Research Activities

Comments on Economic

Developments Newsletters Consultancy

Research Studies

Macro Economy Economic Affairs Newsletter (EAC)

Trade & Investment Facilitation Services (TIFS)

State Profiles States Development

Global Economic Monitor (GEM)

Business Research and Consultancy

Impact Assessments

Infrastructure Trade & Investment Facilitation services (TIFS) Newsletter

Thematic Research Reports

Foreign exchange market

State Development Monitor (SDM)

Releases on Economic Developments

Global Economy & International Trade

FOREX & FEMA Newsletter


27

Studies Undertaken by PHD Research Bureau Thematic research reports

1. Comparative study on power situation in Northern and Central states of India (September2011)

2. Economic Analysis of State (October 2011) 3. Growth Prospects of the Indian Economy, Vision 2021

(December 2011) 4. Budget 2012-13: Move Towards Consolidation (March

2012) 5. Emerging Trends in Exchange Rate Volatility (Apr 2012) 6. The Indian Direct Selling Industry Annual Survey 2010-11

(May 2012) 7. Global Economic Challenges: Implications for India (May

2012) 8. India Agronomics: An Agriculture Economy Update (August

2012) 9. Reforms to Push Growth on High Road (September 2012) 10. The Indian Direct Selling Industry Annual Survey 2011-12:

Beating Slowdown (March 2013) 11. Budget 2013-14: Moving on reforms (March 2013) 12. India- Africa Promise Diverse Opportunities (November

2013) 13. India- Africa Promise Diverse Opportunities: Suggestions

Report (November 2013) 14. Annual survey of Indian Direct Selling Industry-2012-13

(December 2013) 15. Imperatives for Double Digit Growth (December 2013) 16. Women Safety in Delhi: Issues and Challenges to

Employment (March 2014) 17. Emerging Contours in the MSME sector of Uttarakhand

(April 2014) 18. Roadmap for New Government (May 2014) 19. Youth Economics (May 2014) 20. Economy on the Eve of Union Budget 2014-15 (July 2014) 21. Budget 2014-15: Promise of Progress (July 2014) 22. Agronomics 2014: Impact on economic growth and inflation

(August 2014) 23. 100 Days of new Government (September 2014) 24. Make in India: Bolstering Manufacturing Sector (October

2014) 25. The Indian Direct Selling Industry Annual Survey 2013-14

(November 2014) 26. Participated in a survey to audit SEZs in India with CAG

Office of India (November 2014) 27. Role of MSMEs in Make in India with reference to Ease of

Doing Business in Ghaziabad (Nov 2014) 28. Exploring Prospects for Make in India and Made in India: A

Study (January 2015) 29. SEZs in India: Criss-Cross Concerns (February 2015) 30. Socio-Economic Impact of Check Dams in Sikar District of

Rajasthan (February 2015) 31. India - USA Economic Relations (February 2015) 32. Economy on the Eve of Union Budget 2015-16 (February

2015) 33. Budget Analysis (2015-16) 34. Druzhba-Dosti: India's Trade Opportunities with Russia

(April 2015) 35. Impact of Labour Reforms on Industry in Rajasthan: A survey

study (July 2015) 36. Progress of Make in India (September 2015) 37. Grown Diamonds, A Sunrise Industry in India: Prospects for

Economic Growth (November 2015) 38. Annual survey of Indian Direct Selling Industry 2014-15

(December 2015)

39. India’s Foreign Trade Policy Environment Past, Present and Future (December 2015)

40. Revisiting the emerging economic powers as drivers in promoting global economic growth(February 2016)

41. Bolstering MSMEs for Make in India with special focus on CSR (March 2016)

42. BREXIT impact on Indian Economy (July 2016) 43. India’s Exports Outlook (August 2016) 44. Ease of Doing Business : Suggestive Measures for States

(October 2016) 45. Transforming India through Make in India, Skill India and

Digital India (November 2016) 46. Impact of Demonetization on Economy, Businesses and

People (January 2017) 47. Economy on the eve of Budget 2017-18 (January 2017) 48. Union Budget 2017-18: A budget for all-inclusive

development (January 2017) 49. Annual Survey of Indian Direct Selling Industry 2015-16

(February 2017)

50. Worklife Balance and Health Concerns of Women: A Survey (March 2017)

51. Special Economic Zones: Performance, Problems and Opportunities (April 2017)

52. Feasibility Study (socio-Economic Survey) of Ambala and Rohtak Districts in Haryana (March 2017)

53. Goods and Services (GST): So far (July 2017)

54. Reshaping India-Africa Trade: Dynamics and Export Potentiality of Indian Products in Africa (July 2017)

55. Industry Perspective on Bitcoins (July 2017) 56. Senior Housing: A sunrise sector in India B: State profiles 57. Rajasthan: The State Profile (April 2011) 58. Uttarakhand: The State Profile (June 2011) 59. Punjab: The State Profile (November 2011) 60. J&K: The State Profile (December 2011) 61. Uttar Pradesh: The State Profile (December 2011) 62. Bihar: The State Profile (June 2012) 63. Himachal Pradesh: The State Profile (June 2012) 64. Madhya Pradesh: The State Profile (August 2012) 65. Resurgent Bihar (April 2013) 66. Life ahead for Uttarakhand (August 2013) 67. Punjab: The State Profile (February 2014) 68. Haryana: Bolstering Industrialization (May 2015) 69. Progressive Uttar Pradesh: Building Uttar Pradesh of

Tomorrow (August 2015), 70. Suggestions for Progressive Uttar Pradesh (August 2015) 71. State profile of Telangana- The dynamic state of India (April

2016) 72. Smart Infrastructure Summit 2016- Transforming Uttar

Pradesh (August 2016) 73. Smart Infrastructure Summit 2016-Transforming Uttar

Pradesh : Suggestions for the State Government (August 2016)

74. Rising Jharkhand: An Emerging Investment Hub (February 2017)

75. Punjab: Roadmap for the New Government Suggestions for the Industrial and Socio-Economic Development – Focus MSMEs ease of doing business (May 2017)

76. Prospering Himachal Pradesh: A mountain of Opportunities (August 2017)


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Team, PHD Research Bureau

Dr. S P Sharma, Chief Economist Email: [email protected]

S.No. Officers Name Designation Area

1 Ms. Megha Kaul Associate Economist Economic Affairs Committee (EAC) and Policy Developments

2 Mr. Agraja Pratap Deputy Secretary Developments in India’s Infrastructure (National and States)

3 Ms. Surbhi Sharma Sr. Research Officer Developments in Banking Sector, Forex and FEMA Affairs

4 Mr. Rohit Singh Research Associate India’s International Trade, Trade & Investment Facilitation Services (TIFS)

5 Ms. Areesha Research Associate Macro-Economic Developments, Agriculture and Rural Development

6 Ms. Neha Gupta Research Associate Global Economic Developments and Impact on India

8 Ms. Abha Chauhan Research Assistant Economic Developments in India’s States

9 Ms. Sunita Gosain Secretarial Assistant Secretarial & Administrative processes

mailto:[email protected]

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