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Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014 EVA Member Meeting March 2014 John Feland, CEO

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Page 1: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014

EVA Member Meeting March 2014

John Feland, CEO

Page 2: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 2 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 2 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

What we know will happen in 2014

• New Galaxy S5

• New Galaxy Note 4

• More Wearables than people wearing them

• HTC One Up?

• LG G?

• Nokia Microdroid/Androsoft handsets

• iPhone 6ish

• Xiaomi will continue to disrupt everyone, every week

• The US Mobile Market will cease to be interesting

Page 3: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 3 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 3 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

“Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this

market … the iPhone won’t make a long term mark on

the industry” Matthew Lynn - Bloomberg

“The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental

structure or challenges of the mobile industry” Charles Golvin – Forrester Research

“The iPhone is a niche product” Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo – Nokia CEO in April 2008

Page 4: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 4 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 4 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

“If you can not measure it, you can not improve it.” Lord Kelvin

Page 5: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

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Others predict based on what consumers bought, Argus Insights predicts based on what consumers love

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Argus Insights Beat Wall Street Estimates for

Q2 2013 iPhone Sales

Apple iPhone 4 Apple iPhone 4S Apple iPhone 5 Apple iPhone 3GS

Apple iPhone 3G Apple iPhone Quarterly iPhone Sales

Copyright© 2013 Argus Insights, Inc.

Consensus

Morgan Stanley

Argus Insights

Estimate Based Apple’s Actual Q2

iPhone Unit Volume

Page 6: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 6 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 6 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Measuring the Gap Between Brand Promise and Consumer Reality

Page 7: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 7 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 7 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Introduction to the Social Intelligence Portal

COLLECT

• Ratings and

Reviews

• Social Media

• Boards and Blogs

• Proprietary Data

Sources

• NPS Surveys

• Customer Call

Logs

REPORT

• Web based

SaaS

Reporting Tool

• PowerPoint

Ready

Graphics

• Analytical

Services On-

Demand

ANALYZE

• Custom Topic

Tracking &

Analysis

• Contextual

Sentiment Engine

• Bottoms-up

Phrase Analysis

Page 8: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Major Shift In Handsets…

Page 9: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 9 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 9 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Right before MWC…

Page 10: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 10 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 10 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Tech Industry Drives Social Buzz

Page 11: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

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Lenovo Buying a Challenged Brand

Page 12: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 12 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 12 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 13: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 13 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 13 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Page 14: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 14 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 14 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

So What About Social Media, What Do Consumers Say?

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Samsu

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Page 15: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 15 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 15 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

More and More and More for Less

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Page 16: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Mobile World Congress Update

Page 17: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

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While Acer Finishes With Little Buzz, Sentiment Increases

• By 3 Mar, MWC fell to low levels for all brands • Acer, BlackBerry, and Motorola had increases in MWC

Sentiment after the show • Samsung, Nokia and HTC had lower sentiment after MWC

360 450

315 411

217

176 94

82

56

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

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40%

60%

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2/22/2014 2/23/2014 2/24/2014 2/25/2014 2/26/2014 2/27/2014 2/28/2014 3/1/2014 3/2/2014 3/3/2014 3/4/2014

Net

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Social Buzz and Net Sentiment for Major Handset Brands

Acer Brands Apple Phones 1% Blackberry Phones 100% HTC Phones 100% LG Phones 100% Motorola Phones 100% Nokia Phones 100% Samsung Phones 22%

MWC 2014

Page 18: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 18 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 18 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Samsung Highlights

• Samsung’s Unpacked event exploded day one of MWC but as day four approaches the excitement has evaporated

• The common theme regarding the S5 is still mixed feelings “S5 doesn’t seem to be appealing at all.” - @19may131

Some Apple iPhone owners were raising cash by trading in their phones in preparation of pre-ordering the latest Samsung flagship Android phone

In a world of smartphones that all pretty much look the same, it’s really impressive that Samsung has built a standout smartphone brand

The bad news? The company’s latest iPhone competitor isn’t groundbreaking. The good? It doesn’t have to be to sell tens of millions.

Page 19: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 19 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 19 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Motorola Highlights

• Conversations regarding Motorola fade fast as people only have rumors to anticipate as MWC comes to its close

“Motorola didn’t have any new flashy products to show at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona…” - @ITCatalogue

“MOTOROLA uses Mobile World Congress to announce it is the latest smartphone maker with designs on consumers’ wrists.” - @vkii001

Many expected the company to address its acquisition by Lenovo, not much else was predicted

For Motorola, it believes that being sold to Lenovo gives the company “an opportunity to partner on mobile to a larger degree.”

Page 20: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 20 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 20 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

HTC Highlights

• HTC’s buzz fades out as MWC comes to its close

• Conversations ranges from the HTC One’s award to rumors and anticipation of HTC’s unveiling next month

“#HTCOne was titled ‘#Smartphone of the year’ Making #HTC an industry pioneer.” - @thelaststreet

For the new One M8, HTC is believed to have shrunk down its plastic components even further

It will be interested to see how well the HTC smartwatches turn out after all the build up

Page 21: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 21 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 21 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

LG Highlights

• All hype and buzz regarding LG’s award and debut of the L series line of smartphones seen to have packed up even before MWC closes

“You will struggle to use it with two hands due to its size, though LG does throw in a few software tweaks to help tame its giant screen.” - @pctechauthority

LG walked out of the event with the Most Innovative Device Manufacturer of the Year title, having released such prominent devices as the G2, G Flex, Nexus 5 and G Pad 8.3

The G Pro 2 might lack the stylus skills of the Galaxy Note 3, but for non-doodlers, it’s very tempting alternative thanks to its solid build, powerful insides, and impressive camera

Page 22: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 22 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 22 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Nokia Highlights

• Buzz over Nokia’s X is perceived by consumers as confusion from Nokia

• The Nokia X is driving so much conversation that the Lumia 520 winning an award was lost amongst the noise

“Nokia announced its X Android phone this week, but the Lumia 520 won “best low-cost smartphone” of MWC 2014. Oops.” - @tomwarren

“Android widgets on the Nokia X feel out of place” - @linuxrants

“Those Awkward Moments: Nokia has no Windows Phone for MWC and so debuts Nokia X with Android instead.” - @baliagus

Nokia’s new X series of Android smartphones will entice users away from Google services and into the Microsoft ecosystem

Page 23: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 23 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 23 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Embedded Vision Key Part Of MWC Announcements

Page 24: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

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2014 Is The Year Of The Selfie

Page 25: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Current State of Consumer Adoption

Page 26: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 26 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 26 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Verizon’s Recent Subscriber Push Is Working

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Retailers

Overall Market

VodafoneUK

Verizon

TMobile

Sprint

Rogers

CNet

BoostMobile

BestBuy

BellCA

Amazon

ATT

Page 27: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 27 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 27 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Who Is Benefiting From The Carrier Battles?

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Alcatel

Apple

BlackBerry

HTC

Huawei

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LG

Motorola

Nokia

Samsung

Sharp

Sony

ZTE

Page 28: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 28 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 28 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Handset Brand Performance by Carrier/Retailer

Amazon

ATT

BestBuy

Sprint

TMobile

Verizon

Walmart

BoostMobile

Page 29: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 29 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 29 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Taking Photos Is Still a Key Usage Mode of Handsets

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Page 30: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 30 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 30 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Speedy Photos Drive Delight, Front Camera Mixed

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Page 31: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 31 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 31 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

Regional Differences Represent Opportunity In Other Markets

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Books

Web Surfing

Movies

Family

Gaming

Photo Taking

Significant Other

Home

Doing Work

School

Friends

Work Location

Social Media

Skype/Video Chat/Phone

Messaging

Bedroom

Note Taking

Sit

News/Weather/Sports

Laptop Substitute

Most Discussed Tablet Usage Scenarios and Attributes in US

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Web Surfing

Photo Taking

Movies

Gaming

Music

Books

Home

Family

Significant Other

Messaging

Work

Doing Work

Skype/Video Chat/Phone

Outside

Friends

Social Media

Coworker

Laptop Substitute

Car

Bedroom

Top 20 Most Discussed Usage Scenarios in Germany

Page 32: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Page 32 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute Page 32 © 2014 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute

What’s Next for the US handset market

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Page 33: "Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Embedded Vision in Mobile Devices in 2014," a Presentation from Argus Insights

Join me at Demo Table for Deep Dive

http://www.argusinsights.com Twitter: @argusinsights 1-877-992-7487 [email protected]