forecasting audience increase on youtube
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Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
Matthew Rowe
Knowledge Media Institute, The Open University, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom
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Reputation on the Social Web
• Reputation is:“the beliefs or opinions that are generally held about
someone or something”
• On the Social Web, reputation = greater influence– Important to information flow– Control information diffusion
• How to quantify reputation?– Greater audience = greater reputation– Greater reputation = greater influence– How to measure ‘reputation’?
• In-degree – i.e. number of ‘in links’• Audience levels, subscriber counts
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Influential Social Nodes
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Why Forecast?
• Users want to expand their audience– What can users do to increase their audience?– What factors contribute to increases?
• Solution: explore the relation between– Audience levels - i.e. in-degree, and;– Behaviour – of user and content
• Discover patterns, then use patterns for forecasting– Given my behaviour, will my audience grow?
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Features
• User behaviour statistics– In-degree – i.e. number of followers– Out-degree – i.e. number follows– User view count – number of posts viewed by
the user– Post count – number of posts uploaded by the
user• Content statistics
– Post view count – i.e. number of views– Favourite count – i.e. number of likes of content
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Schema Barrier
• Social Web platforms provide data using bespoke schemas– i.e. communicating through different languages
• Data from platform A == data from platform B• Schema from platform A != schema from
platform B
• Models must function across platforms– Enabling portable behaviour patterns
• How can we interpret data from different platforms?
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Behaviour Ontology
• Solution: OU Behaviour Ontology
• Defines behaviour in a common format– Extending the SIOC ontology– Captures ‘impact’
• Vital to capture time-stamped user statistics• Two classes for impact
– User impact• Models user features
– Post impact• Models post statistics
Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
www.purl.org/NET/oubo/0.23/
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Data Collection: YouTube
• Gathered a dataset from the video-sharing platform YouTube
• One aim of usage is to increase ‘channel’ popularity– Gain more subscriptions
• For 10 days, at 4 hour intervals:– Logged 100 most recently uploaded videos
• Stopping once 2k were logged– Logged user + content stats for each video
• Randomly chose 10% for analysis– Split dataset into 80/20 for training/testing
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Forecasting Audience Increase
• How can we predict audience levels given observed features?
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Forecasting Audience Increase
• How can we predict audience levels given observed features?
Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
Coefficient/weight
Predictor/independent variable
Error/residual vector
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Forecasting Audience Increase
• How can we predict audience levels given observed features?
• What features are good predictors?– i.e. can we induce a better model than above?– Perform model selection
Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
Coefficient/weight
Predictor/independent variable
Error/residual vector
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Model Selection I
• To perform model selection:– Aim: maximise the coefficient of
determination– Procedure: average features
within the training split in the same time period
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Model Selection I
• To perform model selection:– Aim: maximise the coefficient of
determination– Procedure: average features
within the training split in the same time period
• First Model: all features
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Model Selection I
• To perform model selection:– Aim: maximise the coefficient of
determination– Procedure: average features
within the training split in the same time period
• First Model: all features
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Model Selection II
• How can we improve upon the previous model?
• Feature selection– Exhaustive search of
all possible feature combinations
– Optimize coefficient of determination
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Model Selection II
• How can we improve upon the previous model?
• Feature selection– Exhaustive search of
all possible feature combinations
– Optimize coefficient of determination
• Shows improvements using certain models
Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
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Model Selection III
• Exhaustive feature selection drops user view count
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Model Selection III
• Exhaustive feature selection drops user view count
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Forecasting I
• Now have 2 models to forecast with:– All features– Best features
Which model is best?
• Two experiments to test predictive power:– One-step forecast
• Train model on previous k-steps, predict k+1– Final-step forecast
• Predict t=10, train on previous k-steps– Predictions are user dependent
• Evaluation measure: Root Mean Square Error
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Forecasting: Results
• One-step
• Final Step
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Conclusions and Future Work
• Quantified reputation by audience levels• Content reception linked to increased levels:
– More content views = increased audience levels– More favourites = increased audience levels
• Able to accurately predict audience levels– Post feature selection improves performance
• Behaviour ontology captures required features– Common conceptualisation of behaviour
• Future work:– Extend analysis to a larger dataset– Applying models to additional platforms
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QUESTIONS
Questions?people.kmi.open.ac.uk/[email protected]@mattroweshow
Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube