FORCE STRUCTURE ANALYSISLockheed Martin Aeronautics

Elissa M. Bryan

AGENDA

Overview Analysis of Problem Description of Model Analysis and Interpretation Applications

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OVERVIEW

FORCE STRUCTURE ANALYSIS

“Which Aircraft, Which Target,

with What Weapons?”

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WHY IT MATTERS

$12k - $15k / Sortie (4th Generation Fighter)

Hostile Combat Zones

Decreased Risk of Aircraft Loss

Decreased Risk of Human Loss

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ANALYSIS OF PROBLEM

DATA SETS

Aircraft Type Tough, Good, Better, Best

Weapon Load-Out Rocket, Small, Medium, Large

Target Type Soft, Medium, Hard, Very Hard

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THE CHALLENGE

Comprehensive Model Can Multiple Objectives Be Integrated? Are the Results Realistic? How Does This Affect Run-Time?

Balanced Resource Allocation: Are Resources Being Ignored? Are Resources Used to the Best of Their Ability?

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DESCRIPTION OF MODEL

MODEL DESCRIPTION

Mixed Integer Program 514 Variables 114 Constraints Multiple Objective Functions

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CONSTRAINTS

Available Sorties Expected Kills Per Sortie (EKS) Available Weapons

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OPTIMIZATION

Minimizing Days in Combat Campaign Minimizing Deviation from Target Requirements

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ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

BINARY CUT

10 Days: Success 5 Days: Failure 8 Days: Success 7 Days Failure

Minimum: 8 Days

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SUCCESS RATE OVER TIME

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1040.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Success Rate Over Time

Days in Campaign

Pe

rce

nta

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of

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EFFICIENCY FRONTIER

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1040.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Efficiency Frontier

Days in Campaign

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

Ta

rge

ts H

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APPLICATION

Acquisition Combat Analysis / Planning Force Structure / Size

Do Different Decision Makers Value Different Variables?

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WRAPPING UP

SUMMARY

Force Structure Analysis Analysis of Problem Description of Model Analysis and Interpretation Applications

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QUESTIONS?Thank you for your time!