for personal use only - home - australian securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... for...

33
Investment update June 2016 For personal use only

Upload: hoangdang

Post on 07-Apr-2018

217 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Investment update

June 2016

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 2: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

This presentation has been prepared by Walsh & Company Asset Management Pty Limited (Walsh & Co AM) (ABN 89 159 902 708, AFSL 450

257) as investment manager (Investment Manager) of the Asian Masters Fund Limited (Fund). The information in this presentation is of a general

nature and does not purport to be complete, nor does it contain all information which would be required in a prospectus prepared in accordance

with the requirements of the Corporations Act.

An investment in shares of the Fund is subject to various risks, many of which are beyond the control of the Investment Manager.

This presentation contains statements, opinions, projections, forecasts and other material (forward looking statements), based on various

assumptions. Those assumptions may or may not prove to be correct. None of the Investment Manager, their respective officers, employees,

agents, advisers nor any other person named in this presentation makes any representation as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfillment of the

forward looking statements or any of the assumptions upon which they are based.

This presentation may contain general advice. Any general advice provided has been prepared without taking into account your objectives,

financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice with regard to your objectives,

financial situation and needs. Where the presentation relates to the purchase of a particular product, you should obtain a copy of the relevant

prospectus or offer document before making any decisions in relation to the product.

Any opinions expressed reflect the Fund’s position at the date of this presentation and are subject to change. The information is taken from

sources which are believed to be accurate, but the Investment Manager accepts no liability of any kind to any person who relies on the

information contained in this presentation. Unless expressly stated, none of the information should be taken to be a recommendation. You are

acting independently at your own risk.

To the extent permitted by law, the Investment Manager or its respective officers, employees, agents and advisers give no warranty,

representation or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness or reliability of the information contained in this presentation. Further, the

Investment Manager or its respective officers, employees, agents and advisers accept, except to the extent permitted by law, responsibility for

any loss, claim, damages, costs or expenses arising out of, or in connection with, the information contained in this presentation. Any recipient of

this presentation should independently satisfy themselves as to the accuracy of all information contained herein.

Disclaimer

2

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 3: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Asian Masters Fund

− Differentiated approach to investing in Asia

− Access to specialist managers—local managers, local insights

− Index agnostic—2/3 of holdings not represented in index

− Strong performance

• Top performing all-cap Asia ex Japan fund1 in 2015 calendar

year, outperforming the MSCI Asia ex Japan index by 8%

• Outperforming MSCI Asia ex Japan index over 1, 3, 5 years

• Winner of Corporate Livewire 2016 Global Fund Award for Asian

Equities Multi-manager Fund of the Year

3

Note:

1 All-cap Asia ex Japan funds with assets >A$20m. Source: Morningstar Direct

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 4: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Leveraging the Asian consumer

− Asia is the world’s fastest growing region1

− Emerging middle class

• Retail sales and spending by consumers growing strongly

− Supportive demographics

4

Note:

1 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook - 2016

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 5: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Example - Indian consumer

5

− Demographic profile

− Young and growing population—>60% under 60 yrs

− Fastest growing major economy—>7% p.a.

− Urbanising population, with discretionary spending growing

(Example assumes normal

distribution of incomes)

As average income rises

25%

$2,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $8,000

13.6%

2.3%

Note:

For illustrative purposes only

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 6: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

India—attractive demographics

Australia

6

India

Source: “World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision”, July 2015, United Nations

7525 25 75

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100+

1.0.1.

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100+

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 7: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

India—Reform agenda

7

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 8: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

India—manager case study

− Small/Mid cap India with Consumer focus

− Highly concentrated portfolio

− Unique approach using consumer surveys

• Former taxi dispatcher makes over 1,000 calls per quarter

− Speaks to 50–60 customers of 20 monitored companies

− Fund closed—we are the only Australian investor

− Exposure to private companies – Indian technology

− Exceptional performance

• Up 278% since launch1, compared with 33% for Nifty Index

Steadview Capital

8

Note:

1 Source: Steadview Capital; June 2016; USD terms

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 9: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Stock example—Eicher Motors

9

Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 10: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Royal Enfield Motorcycles

10

74,626

113,432

178,121

302,592

452,759

5%

7%

11%

15%

21%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sales Volume Market Share (India)

67128

283

682

1168

10%

12%

17%

23%

25%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EBIT (Rs Cr) EBIT Margin

Source: Eicher Motors—Investor Presentation February 2016

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 11: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Eicher Motors—share price

11

Eicher Motors was 7%

of Steadview’s

portfolio in October

2012

Note:

1 Source: Bloomberg; from 30 April 2011 to 30 April 2016

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 12: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Stock example—Ola

− India’s ride-share

− Local brand

− Dominating Uber with ca. 70% market share1

− Private company – Steadview invested alongside high-profile investors SoftBank, Tiger Global and Sequoia Capital

12

Note:

1 Source: ANI Technologies

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 13: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Manager case study

− Employee owned firm, strong alignment of interests

− Dominant consumer staples companies only

− Eat, Drink, Wash, Wear, Shop

− Genuine long-term investors

− Exceptional performance

− Asian Masters Fund’s largest fund holding

Arisaig Asia Consumer Fund

13

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 14: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

− 119 year-old company leader in consumer products

− Leader in household insecticides (52% share) and hair colour (33%

share); second largest in soap (9% share)

− One out of every three Indians use a Godrej product

− 24% of holding company is held in a trust that invests in the

environment, health and education

− Sales growth of 29% p.a. and profit growth (EPS) of 20% p.a. over

the last 10 years1

Stock Example - Godrej Consumer Products

14

Note:

1 Source: Arisaig Partners; April 2016; USD terms

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 15: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Godrej Consumer Products

15

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 16: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Godrej Consumer Products

16

Note:

1 Source: Bloomberg; from 30 April 2006 to 30 April 2016

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AUF’s first

investment in

Arisaig Consumer

July-2011

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 17: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

China

17

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 18: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

China Provincial Risk Heatmap

18

Source: Bloomberg Excel Template Library: China Provincial Risk Tracker. Provincial risks are measured based on rankings on provincial

growth and revenue. Data as at 30 April 2016

More risky

Less risky

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 19: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

China Provincial Risk Heatmap

19

Source: Bloomberg Excel Template Library: China Provincial Risk Tracker. Provincial risks are measured based on rankings on provincial

growth and revenue. Data as at 30 April 2016. Walsh & Company Asset Management (Walsh & Co AM).

More risky

Less risky

AUF investment focus

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 20: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

China Managers in AUF portfolio

20

Not simply investing in the index

+18% +19%

-8%

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16

APS Cephei NCC CSI 300 Index

Source: Walsh & Co AM. Data to 30 April 2016. Performance figures in AUD.

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 21: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Outlook & summary

21

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 22: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Asia (ex-Japan) valuations

22

Asia (ex-Japan) Index- Price to Book Ratio

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, data to 30 April 2016

1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

3.0x

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 23: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Asia (ex-Japan) valuations

MSCI Asia ex-Japan—price to book ratio relative to MSCI World

23

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, data to 30 April 2016

− Valuations are supportive

− Asia’s price to book currently at a discount of 39% to MSCI World

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Current

discount

39%

Long-term

average—13%

discount

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 24: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Asian Market outlook

24

− Expect volatility to continue

− Theme of growing consumption remains strongly intact

− India remains a bright spot

− Benefits of low oil price yet to be recognised

− Major risk is China policy errors

• We believe that China can achieve a transition to consumption

driven economy, but there will be bumps in that road.

− Active management is key!

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 25: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Asian Masters Fund

− Diversified underlying portfolio through Fund-of-Funds approach

− Portfolio of top quality managers

− Access to local insights—local managers, local insights

− Targeting returns through country allocation and manager selection

− Index agnostic—2/3 of holdings not represented in index

− Strong performance

• Top performing all-cap Asia ex Japan fund1 in 2015 calendar

year, outperforming the MSCI Asia ex Japan index by 8%

− Governance

• Oversight by highly experienced, majority independent board of

directors, including independent Chairman

25

Note:

1 All-cap Asia ex Japan funds with assets >A$20m. Source: Morningstar Direct

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 26: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Appendices

26

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 27: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Performance—total return1

At 30 April 2016

27

3 m 6 m 1 yr 3 yr 5 yrSince

inception2

AUF NTA3 0.0 -11.3 -13.3 34.0 38.5 47.7

MSCI Asia ex Japan Index 1.7 -8.9 -15.4 33.3 37.3 13.1

Relative4(NTA- Index) -1.7 -2.5 2.1 0.8 1.1 34.6

Source: Walsh & Co AM, MSCI, Bloomberg

Notes:

1 Inclusive of dividends reinvested

2 Inception date was 3 December 2007

3 Returns based on pre-tax NTA

4 Some figures may not reconcile due to rounding

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 28: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Performance1 – Peer comparison

At 30 April 2016

28

AUM ($M) 6 M 1 Y 2 Y 3 Y 5 YSince

Inception2

Aberdeen Asian Opportunities 506 -9.3 -14.7 9.6 20.9 43.7 49.6

Asian Masters Fund 153 -11.3 -13.3 27.4 34.0 38.5 47.7

BT Asian Share WS 178 -11.2 -9.8 17.4 30.3 38.5 21.5

CFS FC Inv-First Choice Asian Share 139 -8.7 -12.7 18.2 36.5 42.5 26.0

Ellerston Asia Fund 94 -17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

K2 Asian Absolute Return 64 -9.3 -19.8 8.2 16.9 20.6 27.4

Maple-Brown Abbott Asian Investment 64 -8.5 -12.1 13.7 37.1 55.4 38.3

Nikko AM New Asia 22 -14.0 -19.6 16.9 32.3 38.1 -2.0

Platinum Asia 4,382 -10.4 -15.0 19.8 38.3 58.3 56.0

PM Capital Asian Opportunities Fund Ltd 59 0.0 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A

Schroder Asia Pacific 131 -8.9 -8.2 18.0 34.3 59.7 28.7

T. Rowe Price Asia ex-Japan 200 -8.2 -12.4 15.9 29.8 40.7 N/A

MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index -8.9 -15.4 17.2 33.3 37.3 13.1

Source: Walsh & Co AM, MSCI, Bloomberg

Notes:

1 NTA return inclusive of dividends reinvested, 2. Inception date was 3 December 2007, 3. Some figures may not reconcile due to rounding

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 29: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Portfolio

29

Fund 31 Dec 2015 Weight (%) 30 Apr 2016 Weight (%)

Re

gio

na

l

Arisaig Asia Consumer Fund 15.4% 15.8%

Asian Opportunities Absolute Return Fund 8.8% 8.8%

Macquarie Asia New Stars No.1 Fund 6.1% 6.0%

Prusik Asia Smaller Companies Fund 4.9% 5.4%

Prusik Asia Fund 6.0% 4.9%

Aberdeen Asian Opportunities Fund 5.8% -

AllianceBernstein Asia ex-Japan Fund - 3.3%

Co

un

try

Steadview Capital Fund 11.0% 11.3%

CK Absolute Return Fund 8.9% 9.7%

JPMorgan Taiwan Fund 7.6% 7.1%

Cephei QFII China Absolute Return Fund 7.0% 7.0%

NCC China A-Share Fund 7.2% 6.7%

APS China A Share Fund 6.5% 6.2%

JPMorgan China Pioneer A-Share Fund 3.2% -

Wellls Fargo China Equities Fund - 5.1%

Total Invested1 98.6% 97.3%

Cash 1.4% 2.7%

Total1 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Walsh & Co AM

Notes:

1 Some figures may not reconcile due to rounding.

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 30: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Portfolio—country allocation

Country allocation1

30

34.9%

20.9%

13.9%

10.8%

4.5%

3.2%3.1%

6.0% 2.7%

China India Korea

Taiwan Hong Kong Vietnam

Philippines Other Cash

11.2%

6.7%

3.2%

2.7%

1.5%

-1.6%

-3.1%

-3.4%

-4.2%

-4.5%

-8.5%

India

China

Vietnam

Cash

Other

Indonesia

Taiwan

Malaysia

Singapore

Korea

Hong Kong

Relative weights3

Source: Walsh & Co AM

Notes:

1 Some figures may not reconcile due to rounding.

2 ‘Other’ includes, but is not limited to, Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan and Malaysia; 3. Relative to MSCI Asia ex Japan Index.

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 31: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Portfolio—sector allocation

Sector allocation1

31

19.1% 17.8%

17.7%

15.0%11.3%

5.5%

5.4%

3.3%1.5%0.8%2.7%

Cons Disc Cons Staples ITIndustrials Financials MaterialsHealth Care Utilities TelecomsEnergy Cash

12%

11%

6%

3%

3%

1%

-1%

-4%

-5%

-6%

-20%

Cons Staples

Cons Disc

Industrials

Health Care

Cash

Materials

Utilities

Energy

Telecoms

IT

Financials

Relative weights2

Source: Walsh & Co AM

Notes:

1 Some figures may not reconcile due to rounding.

2 Relative to MSCI Asia ex Japan Index.

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 32: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

Asian Masters Fund

Adam Coughlan

Head of Distribution

T 02 8662 9792 | M 0418 653 560

walshandco.com.au

32

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Page 33: For personal use only - Home - Australian Securities ... · distribution of incomes) ... For personal use only Producer of Royal Enfield Motorcycles. Royal Enfield Motorcycles 10

33

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y