fn- text - ten tips for successful long investing

8/22/2019 Fn- Text - Ten Tips for Successful Long Investing

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TEN TIPS FOR SUCCESSFUL LONG-TERM INVESTOR

by Investopedia Staff, (Investopedia.com) (Contact Author|Biography)http://www.investopedia.com/articles/00/082100.asp

While it may be true that in the stock market there is no rule without an exception, there are

some principles which are tough to dispute. We'll review 10 general principles to helpinvestors get a better grasp of how to approach the market from a long-term view. Keep inmind that these guidelines are quite general, each with different applications depending onthe circumstance. But every point embodies some fundamental concept every investor shouldknow.

1) Sell the losers and let the winners ride! - Time and time again, investors take profits byselling their appreciated investments, but they hold onto stocks that have declined in hopes of arebound. If an investor doesn't know when it's time to let go of hopeless stocks, he or she can,in the worst-case scenario, see the stock sink to the point where it is almost worthless. Ofcourse, the idea of holding onto high-quality investments while selling the poor ones is great intheory, but hard to put into practice. The following information might help:

Riding a Winner- Peter Lynch was famous for talking about his " tenbaggers", his

investments that had increased tenfold in value. The theory is that much of hisoverall success was due to a small number of stocks in his portfolio that returned big.If you have a personal policy to sell after a stock has increased by a certain multiple -say three, for instance - you may never fully ride out a winner. No one in the historyof investing with a "sell-after-I-have-tripled-my-money" mentality has ever had atenbagger. Don't underestimate a stock that is performing well by sticking to somerigid personal rule - if you don't have a good understanding of the potential of yourinvestments, your personal rules may end up being arbitrary and too limiting.

Selling a Loser- There is no guarantee that a stock will bounce back after aprotracted decline. While it's important not to underestimate good stocks, it's equallyimportant to be realistic about investments that are performing badly. Recognizingyour losers is hard because it's also an acknowledgment of your mistake. But it's

important to be honest when you realize that a stock is not performing as well as youexpected it to. Don't be afraid to swallow your pride and move on before your lossesbecome even greater!

In both cases, the point is to judge companies on their merits according to your research. Ineach situation, you still have to decide whether a price justifies future potential. Justremember not to let your fears limit your returns or inflate your losses.

2)Don't chase the "hot tip" - Whether the tip comes from your brother, cousin, neighbor, oreven broker, no one can ever guarantee what a stock will do. When you make an investment,it's important you know the reasons for doing so: do your own research and analysis of anycompany before you even consider investing your hard earned money. Relying on a tidbit ofinformation from someone else is not only an attempt at taking the easy way out, it's also a type

of gambling. Sure, with some luck, tips may sometimes pan out. But they will never make youan informed investor, which is what you need to be to be successful in the long run.

3) Don't sweat the small stuff- In tip No.1, we explained the importance of realizing when yourinvestments are not performing as you expected them to - but remember to expect short-termfluctuations. As a long-term investor, you shouldn't panic when your investments experienceshort-term movements. When tracking the activities of your investments, you should look at thebig picture. Remember to be confident in the quality of your investments rather than nervousabout the inevitable volatility of the short term. Also, don't overemphasize the few centsdifference you might save from using a limit versus market order.

Granted, active traders will use these day-to-day and even minute-to-minute fluctuations as away to make gains. But the gains of a long-term investor come from a completely different

market movement - the one that occurs over many years - so keep your focus on developingyour overall investment philosophy by educating yourself.

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4) Do not overemphasize the P/E ratio - Investors often place too much importance on theP/E ratio. Because it is one key tool among many, using only this ratio to make buy or selldecisions is dangerous and ill-advised. The P/E ratio must be interpreted within a context, and itshould be used in conjunction with other analytical processes. So, a low P/E ratio doesn'tnecessarily mean a security is undervalued, nor does a high P/E ratio necessarily mean a

company is overvalued. (For further reading, see our tutorial Understanding the P/E Ratio.)

5) Resist the lure of penny stocks - A common misconception is that there is less to lose inbuying a low-priced stock. But whether you buy a $5 stock that plunges to $0 or a $75 stock thatdoes the same, either way you'd still have a 100% loss of your initial investment. A lousy $5company has just as much downside risk as a lousy $75 company. In fact, a penny stock isprobably riskier than a company with a higher share price, which would have more regulationsplaced on it. (For further reading, see The Lowdown on Penny Stocks.)

6) Pick a strategy and stick with it - Different people use different methods to pick stocks andfulfill investing goals. There are many ways to be successful and no one strategy is inherentlybetter than any other. However, once you find your style, stick with it. An investor who floundersbetween different stock-picking strategies will probably experience the worst, rather than the

best, of each. Constantly switching strategies effectively makes you a market timer, and this isdefinitely territory most investors should avoid. Take Warren Buffett's actions during the dotcomboom of the late '90s as an example. Buffett's value-oriented strategy had worked for him fordecades, and - despite criticism from the media - it prevented him from getting suckedinto tech startups that had no earnings and eventually crashed.

7) Focus on the future - The tough part about investing is that we are trying to make informeddecisions based on things that are yet to happen. It's important to keep in mind that eventhough we use past data as an indication of things to come, it's what happens in the future thatmatters most.

A quote from Peter Lynch's book "One Up on Wall Street" about his experience with Subarudemonstrates this: "If I'd bothered to ask myself, 'How can this stock go any higher?' I would

have never bought Subaru after it already went up twentyfold. But I checked the fundamentals,realized that Subaru was still cheap, bought the stock, and made sevenfold after that." The pointis to base a decision on future potential rather than on what has already happened in the past.

8) Investors adopt a long-term perspective - Large short-term profits can often entice thosewho are new to the market. But adopting a long-term horizon and dismissing the "get in, get outand make a killing" mentality is a must for any investor. This doesn't mean that it's impossible tomake money by actively trading in the short term. But, as we already mentioned, investing andtrading are very different ways of making gains from the market. Trading involves very differentrisks that buy-and-hold investors don't experience. As such, active trading requires certainspecialized skills.

Neither investing style is necessarily better than the other - both have their pros and cons. But

active trading can be wrong for someone without the appropriate time, financial resources,education and desire. (For further reading, see Defining Active Trading.) Most people don't fitinto this category.

9) Be open-minded when selecting companies - Many great companies are householdnames, but many good investments are not household names (and vice versa). Thousands ofsmaller companies have the potential to turn into the large blue chips of tomorrow. In fact,historically, small-caps have had greater returns than large-caps: over the decades from 1926-2001, small-cap stocks in the U.S. returned an average of 12.27% while the S&P 500returned10.53%.

This is not to suggest that you should devote your entire portfolio to small-cap stocks. Rather,understand that there are many great companies beyond those in the Dow Jones IndustrialAverage, and that by neglecting all these lesser-known companies, you could also be neglectingsome of the biggest gains.

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10) Taxes are important, but not that important - Putting taxes above all else is a dangerousstrategy, as it can often cause investors to make poor, misguided decisions. Yes, taximplications are important, but they are a secondary concern. The primary goals in investing areto grow and secure your money. You should always attempt to minimize the amount of tax youpay and maximize your after-tax return, but the situations are rare where you'll want to put tax

considerations above all else when making an investment decision (see Basic InvestmentObjectives).

ConclusionIn this article, we've covered 10 solid tips for long-term investors. We started off saying thatthere is an exception to every rule, and we can't overemphasize this point. Depending on yourcircumstances, you might even disagree with some of these pointers. However, we hope thatthe common sense principles we've discussed benefit you overall and provide some insight intohow you should think about investing.

by Investopedia Staff(Contact Author|Biography)

Investopedia.com believes that individuals can excel at managing their financial affairs. Assuch, we strive to provide free educational content and tools to empower individualinvestors, including more than 1,200 original and objective articles and tutorials on a widevariety of financial topics.

ARE STOCKS THE BEST LONG TERM INVESTMENT?

http://www.economymodels.com/stockstime.asp

It has often been suggested that investments in the stock market are better than any otherinvestments over the long term. During the stock market mania of the late 1990's, this wasthe mantra that was repeated over and over in order to sell mutual funds to inexperiencedinvestors. But is it true? Are shares in publicly listed companies better than any other type of

investment in the long run? And if so, what exactly is the long run?

Many economists certainly seem to believe in the stock market. They are able to showstatistics that support their case and have developed elaborate theories that seem to provethe point. This hasn't always been the case. In the early eighties, for example, the sametheories that are now used to support the stock market, were used by economists to supportthe case that commodities would produce the same long term yield as common stocks. Andbased on historical price statistics, that certainly seemed to be the case. We all know whathas happened with commodity prices since then.

So what are the economists' arguments? Basically, there are two different arguments - onetheoretical and one statistical. The theoretical argument is usually some variation of a capital

market model, usually the famous CAPM model. Although, CAPM is a very elegant model, it isin our opinion not applicable to real capital markets. The assumptions underlying the modelare simply not correct. The CAPM model will be discussed more in depth in another essay atthis site. We will not reprise it here. Suffice it to say that CAPM was the model that was usedto suggest investors should buy commodities in the early eighties.

At first sight, the statistical argument is much more convincing. When looking back athistorical stock market returns over any extended period it seems that the stock marketreturns are much higher than returns from any other investment. Admittedly, the long termhas been long, and in some cases way exceeding a life time. Nevertheless, stock marketinvestments seem to have been very profitable. There are several fundamental flaws in thisline of reasoning, however. These will be discussed below.

The first flaw is a mathematical error made by those using past performance to predict thefuture. When using all of the statistical cook-book methods, a fundamental assumption is that

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the data points used as input to the method are chosen at random from the set of data pointswhich you study. What does this mean? In a typical study, the set of data points are all dailystock market returns of the past as well as the future. A random selection would includefuture as well as historical returns. Of course, past returns we know, but we can't possibleknow what future returns will be. Essentially, you can't use the statistical cook-book methodsto say anything about the future using historical data.

Other mathematical errors are often made by economists as well, including assumptions thatdaily returns are independent, or equally distributed or that they have finite variance. Theseassumptions may or may not be true, but they can't be made without justification simplybecause they make calculations easier. Using statistics like this is not science, but more likealchemy. I won't discuss these issues further, as they have been extensively discussedelsewhere.

There is another fundamental flaw in the statistical argument that is rarely discussed. Whenstudying the historical price data it is common to concentrate only on the best performingstock markets. For example, long term studies using price data from the Russian stock marketare never done. After the communist revolution, the Russian stock market effectively went tozero. In fact almost all of the world's stock markets have underperformed the US market inthe last century or so. Today, it seems natural to study the US stock market, but for an 19thcentury investor, some of the most interesting growth regions of the world were Russia andSouth America. The United States were a poorly developed country plagued by civil war.

Using hindsight when selecting markets to study is usually not an intentional error. It isnatural for economists to study the stock markets in their own country, and most economistswork in the economically successful countries. Many of the less fortunate countries of theworld don't even have a stock market to study anymore. There is a natural tendency to ignorethe markets that have failed.

When looking at historical stock market returns, it makes sense to think about why returnshave been as high as they have. In the really long term, stock investments can't grow faster

than the profits of the companies invested in. Over the long run, profits tend to be relativelystable as a fraction of revenue, and in any case, the profit level will always be bounded bythe total revenue of the company. This means that in the long term, profits can't consistentlygrow faster than revenue. What we have seen in the last century, however, is that stockprices have increased much faster than revenues and profits. This is something that can'tcontinue. Maybe the current PE ratios are more correct than those of the 19th century -maybe they are not. But the trend of higher PE ratios cannot continue indefinitely. The fact isthat higher valuations have contributed a lot to the over-performance of the stock markets ofthe last century. This is clearly unsustainable.

There are other factors that have also been beneficial to the stock market over the lastcentury or so. These include a higher pace of invention and faster growth than at any othertime in history. They also include the fact that the world has become a much more safe,stable and peaceful place to live. Wars used to be much more common than they are today.Maybe this development is sustainable - maybe it isn't.

While conditions have been favorable for stocks in the last century, they have been mostunfavorable for alternative investments - particularly for bonds. This has to do with theadvent of central banking and fiat money. Since the inception of the Federal Reserve systemin the United States, the dollar has lost 95 percent of its purchasing power. Before the 20thcentury, the British pound had a fixed value in relation to silver and later to gold for hundredsof years (with a few brief interruptions). Although the purchasing power of the pound variedwith the price of precious metals, over the long term, the purchasing power remained fairlyconstant until the time of devaluations and easy money in the 20th century. Since then, thepound has lost most of its former value.

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While inflation has been rampant, interest rates have been kept artificially low. The policy ofthe 20th century has been the stimulation of demand, where-as the policies of earlier periodshave been to stimulate production. The demand policy has resulted in growth, but at the costof rapidly rising debt levels.

Some of the greatest fortunes in history have been made by investments in debt instruments.

In the 20th century, great fortunes have been lost in bonds. The last one hundred years areclearly not representative of previous time periods. It seems likely that they will not berepresentative of the future either.

In my opinion, most of the arguments are supposed to prove that the stock market providesuperior returns can be easily dismissed. They simply don't hold up to scrutiny. That doesn'tnecessarily mean that the conclusion is wrong, though. Maybe the stock market does producesuperior results. Most investors certainly believe so - or rather, they are convinced that itdoes. The stock market has a tendency to discount what most investors believe, though. Ifthe stock market believes that the companies in a broad, market weighted stock marketindex grow faster than interest on a risk free investment, then maybe that ought to havebeen discounted in the price of the stock market index.

Do we have an answer to our questions? Sadly, no. While there is no evidence that the stockmarket has superior returns, there is also no conclusive evidence it does not. My personalbelief is that there is no simple way to make money in capital markets. Just putting all yourmoney in a mutual fund is no safe way to get rich, even in the long run. If it were that easy,we would all do it, and soon enough, no-one would have to work anymore. Investing in sharesof stock at the right price will always be a way to make money, but I believe that the pricerelative to fundamentals is a critical determinant of success or failure in stocks, just as in anyother investment. While stock markets have had an amazing run for the last century and ahalf, that is certainly no guarantee that they will in the future.

Site: http://www2.uol.com.br/aprendiz/guiadeempregos/especial/artigos_061003.htm

Bolsa de Valores tem grupo de investidores com mais de 70 anos

Pequena, curvada, cabelos completamente brancos, aparncia frgil e roupas simples: aosolhos de seus vizinhos do bairro de Copacabana , dona Zuleika Fonseca parece apenas maisuma simptica vov. Fosse feita uma enquete, provavelmente nenhum deles adivinharia que,aos 82 anos, a verdadeira vocao que corre em suas veias outra: a de investidoraapaixonada pelo mercado de aes: " No tive filhos, sou solteirona e sempre gostei de lidarcom dinheiro. Descobri a bolsa de valores na dcada de 60 e nunca mais parei " .

No momento em que comea a falar, dona Zuleika surpreende pela objetividade, lucidez envel de informao. Detesta computador, mas leitora vida de jornais, revistas erelatrios. Sempre fez questo de escolher pessoalmente as aes que compem sua carteira

e de desenhar toda sua estratgia no mercado. Investidora agressiva, gosta de operar nomercado de opes.

Mas parou porque admite que, aos 82 anos, esse grau de risco seria demais para ela. Oresultado de tudo isso? Trs apartamentos comprados na zona sul carioca e uma carteira depapis com um valor de mercado interessante e diverso diria garantida. "Escuto algumasdicas do pessoal da corretora e de outros investidores, mas sempre acabo indo pela minhacabea", conta ela, que administra tambm o patrimnio da famlia. "Ela a nossa ministrada economia", brinca a irm e companheira inseparvel, Zildete Fonseca.

Para quem pensa que dona Zuleika um caso isolado no mercado acionrio, a corretoracarioca gide, por onde ela opera, prova o contrrio. Na ltima quinta-feira a corretorareuniu apenas uma pequena parte de seu grupo de investidores com mais de 75 anos natradicionalssima confeitaria Colombo para que eles contassem um pouco de suas histrias depaixo pelo mercado de capitais. Paixo que, alis, no gratuita. Investir na bolsa para eles

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significou poder realizar sonhos que seriam impossveis sem a alta significativa dos bemescolhidos papis que compuseram suas carteiras nas ltimas quase quatro dcadas.

Foi graas a isso que dona Cla Silva, 76 anos, professora aposentada da Tijuca, zona norte doRio, pde viajar e conhecer o mundo inteiro. tambm com o ganho das aes que aaposentada Edith Arruda, 82 anos, pode manter hoje o padro de vida que sempre teve,

mesmo aps a morte de seu marido, cuja penso no lhe rende nem R$ 1 mil por ms.Tambm graas ao ganho que teve e continua tendo com os papis que o ex-comercirioErmelindo Tozzato, 82 anos, conseguiu montar hoje uma carteira diversificada deinvestimentos que inclui fundos e imveis, alm de suas aes, das quais no abre mo.

Todos garantem que sempre ganharam na bolsa e que as perdas ocorreram, sim, mas foramlargamente superadas pelos ganhos e minimizadas pela diversificao. Os maiores ganhos dequase todos foram obtidos com escolhas aparentemente simples: Companhia Vale do RioDoce, Banco do Brasil, Souza Cruz e Petrobras so respostas unnimes pergunta "com quepapis voc ganhou mais dinheiro?".

Um ou outro tem alguma histria de aposta particular bem-sucedida, mas na base dos ganhos

sempre esto as empresas mais slidas. por conta disso que nem a maior sumidade emplanejamento financeiro do mundo seria capaz de convenc-los a zerar sua parcela em rendavarivel, como rezaria a cartilha de avaliao de risco de vrias instituies financeiras paraas pessoas nessa faixa de idade.

"Meus filhos esto criados, no tenho netos e a vida para aproveitar. Tenho algum dinheiroinvestido na renda fixa, mas pouco. Sei que dizem que isso errado, mas nenhum outroinvestimento teria me permitido tudo o que eu consegui com as minhas aes", diz Cla Silva.

Ela comeou a comprar papis por acaso, na virada da dcada de 60 para a de 70 porindicao de um amigo que gostava de investir em aes. "Era o boom do mercado acionrio,eu no tinha muito dinheiro para aplicar, mas comecei com pouco mesmo, sempre fuicautelosa, escolhia empresas slidas e o investimento foi dando certo. Com os ganhos,

conheci o mundo todo, Oriente, Estados Unidos, fui para a Europa j trs vezes. Com meusalrio de professora jamais daria para fazer isso", comemora Cla, que vive tendo queexplicar para as amigas qual o 'milagre' que faz para conseguir multiplicar o seu dinheiro.

Ex-diretor de uma empresa que negociava tecidos por atacado, Ermelindo Tozzato lembracom saudade dos tempos ureos da Bolsa do Rio de Janeiro, quando ainda era possvelcomprar papis das empresas da regio. "As primeiras aes que comprei, na dcada de 60,foram Nova Amrica, Amrica Fabril e Fbrica de Tecidos So Pedro de Alcntara, era umsetor que eu conhecia bem", diz, lembrando de um tempo em que o termo IPO (Initial PublicOfferings) no existia, mas abertura de capital de companhias no faltava como hoje.

"Naquele tempo, guardar dinheiro era s na Caixa Econmica Federal, ou comprando letras de

cmbio, isso se usava muito. Comecei a operar na bolsa pela Corretora Alexandre Dale, queera do av do meu atual consultor, Jlio Dale. Nunca perdi muito porque no souespeculador, no fao 'day trade' (compra e venda de aes no mesmo dia)", conta ele,antenadssimo com as novas nomenclaturas do mercado.

Blue chip no tempo de Tozzato significava White Martins, Brahma, Souza Cruz, Belgo Mineira.Ganhou algum dinheiro com algumas delas, mas a ao que habita h mais tempo sua carteira a de um banco que lhe pareceu muito promissor anos atrs. "O Bradesco no era essapotncia toda que hoje. Eles precisavam captar clientes e davam mil facilidades. A meninaque atendia no balco me ofereceu as aes quando fui abrir a conta", lembra Tozzato.

At hoje ele tem tanto a conta corrente no Bradesco quanto os papis e j perdeu a conta dequanto ganhou com a variao e os dividendos. "Mantenho o papel na carteira porquecontinuo achando interessante", avalia ele. "Hoje j diversifiquei minha carteira. Com o

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dinheiro que ganhei na bolsa comprei imveis e aplico em fundos de renda fixa. Mas continuocom minha carteira de papis", garante.

Belssima e elegante aos 82 anos, dona Edith Arruda sempre teve uma queda pelo mercado deaes e s no investiu mais porque no encontrava adeptos na famlia. "Meu marido ficavanervosssimo com isso. Mas ainda bem que eu insisti em manter sempre meus papis. Alm de

ser cautelosa e diversificar, acho que tive sorte tambm, aproveitei as grandes altas erealizei uma boa quantia antes da ltima baixa", conta ela, que consegue manter seu timopadro de vida graas ao tino que sempre demonstrou para investir.

"Em 1971, vendi um apartamento e apliquei tudo na bolsa. Logo depois foi aquela maravilha.Meu marido ficava louco, me implorava para sair. Ele dizia: no possvel, voc ganha dezmil todo dia, uma hora isso acabar mal. De tanto ele falar resolvemos comprar outro imvel,vendi as aes bem na hora, antes da queda", lembra.

Hoje dona Edith mantm uma carteira de aes bem menor, mas no consegue ficar longe dabolsa. "Aplico em empresas mais slidas, como Souza Cruz, que eu comecei a comprar quandocustava R$ 10. Outra coisa que eu sou sempre compradora, no gosto de vender as aes",

orgulha-se. Hoje as aes da empresa j valem R$ 25.

(Valor Econmico 01/10/03)

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fn- text - ten tips for successful long investing

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