flood map modernization and fema levee policy february 2008 doug bellomo director, risk analysis...

Flood Map Modernization and FEMA Levee Policy

February 2008

Doug BellomoDirector, Risk Analysis DivisionMitigation Directorate, FEMA

Flood Map ModernizationOverviewOverview

National Flood Insurance Program Background Map Modernization Status Levees Flood Risk – What it is and isn’t

Flood Map Modernization

National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) BackgroundNational Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Background

Flood Insurance – the federal government makes it available (more affordable than private market)

Floodplain Management – program participant (local government) agrees to adopt building standards aimed at reducing future risk

Flood Maps – Made collaboratively with state and local governments

Flood Map ModernizationNFIP StatusNFIP Status

Over 20,000 communities participate in the program

Over 5 million flood insurance policies in force Over $1 trillion in insurance coverage

(exposure)

Flood Map ModernizationMap Modernization StatusMap Modernization Status

Five year roughly $1B effort•Began in FY04•Estimated completion FY10

FY08 Budget – Appropriated $220M Annual planning process results in publication

of Multi-Year Flood Hazard Identification Plan (MHIP)

• Currently working on FY08 MHIP – planned release Spring 2008


Performance Metrics – Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)Performance Metrics – Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07Target Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target Actual

Population w/ digital GIS flood data available online

20% 17% 50% 39% 50% 48% 60% 60%

Population with effective maps that meet quality standards

10% 8% 20% 16% 25% 23% 35% 32%

Using dollars provided through this FY, our goal remains as covering 92% of the nations population

with a modernized flood map by 2010

Flood Map ModernizationMisconceptionsMisconceptions

FEMA Certifies Levees – we don’t levee owners or other parties seeking recognition do

Insurance not available in floodplains, areas protected by levees, or behind de-accredited levees – it is as long as the local government participates its available

All levees provide significant protection – they don’t they provide varying levels of protection which can change through time

FEMA’s regulations for how levees are accredited have changed recently – they’ve been on the books since the mid 1980’s

FEMA will only accredit Federal Levees – private levees can also be certified and ultimately accredited


What is FEMA doing with respect to levees?What is FEMA doing with respect to levees?

Making sure that levees shown as providing protection do in fact provide the stated level of protection – truth in labeling

Update flood hazard data to reflect existing conditions – not proposed conditions

Work with states, locals, and other federal agencies to ensure the flood risk is properly communicated

Help people make sound decisions based on the facts


LeveesInterim Guidance for Studies Including LeveesLeveesInterim Guidance for Studies Including Levees

Early in Map Mod FEMA understood the challenge of identifying flood hazards in and around levees

Pre-Katrina (Aug 2005) we issued Procedure Memo 34 emphasizing importance of following existing regulations while updating flood maps

• Re-iterated what regulations say - levees cannot be assumed to provide 1% annual chance protection


LeveesGuidelines for Identifying Provisionally Accredited Levees (PAL)

LeveesGuidelines for Identifying Provisionally Accredited Levees (PAL)

Adjusted mapping procedures further to balance owner need for time and FEMA responsibility to identify flood hazards in a timely way• Procedure Memo 43 introduces Provisionally Accredited Levees Only levees currently accredited are eligible Responsible parties must state they believe levee meets

regulatory requirements FEMA provides 2 year period to compile required documentation Levee is “Provisionally Accredited” Policy was developed in close coordination with the USACE


LeveesFEMA’s Accreditation RegulationsLeveesFEMA’s Accreditation Regulations

In place since 1986 44 Code of Federal Regulations Section 65.10 Compliance with Section 65.10 resides with levee

owner or other party seeking recognition that a levee provides protection against the base flood

Requirements include aspects of levee• Design• Operation• Maintenance

Flood Map ModernizationSo, what does this mean?So, what does this mean?

FEMA will continue to:• Ask owners or other parties seeking recognition to provide

required documentation before showing a levee as providing protection

• Make accommodations for provisional accreditation of levees when and where appropriate

• Continue to coordinate closely with the USACE, other federal agencies, and our stakeholders

• Listen, learn, and adjust within the bounds of the law and our mission

Flood Map ModernizationWhat else does it mean?What else does it mean?

We all have some responsibility• States• Locals• Levee boards/owners• Federal government• Home/Business owners

With that responsibility comes an obligation to at a minimum inform, but better - act

Ignoring the problem or delaying action will not make it go away – it makes it worse


Flood “Probability” is NOT Flood “Risk”Flood “Probability” is NOT Flood “Risk”

Flood risk and flood probability are erroneously used interchangeably

This, coupled with a need for legal clarity, has generally led to a zero/one mentality of flood risk

• High risk (in the floodplain) OR• No risk (outside the floodplain)

Its more complicated than that• Risk = probability x consequences• Risks can be high in situations where relatively low probabilities

are offset by high consequences AND• Risk can be low where high probabilities are offset by low

consequences

Flood Map ModernizationSome ExamplesSome Examples

RISK0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 102 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 203 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 304 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 405 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 506 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 607 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 708 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 809 9 18 27 36 45 54 63 72 81 9010 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

12 Someone insured with higher chance of flooding has same risk as someone without insurance and lower probability

Probability increases while risk decreases through consequences management40 (New map showing increased probability leads to purchase of insurance - reduces individual risk)

Probability drops while risk goes up because consequences are not managed(Levee "eliminates" floodplain, leads to dropped insurance coverage - increases individual risk)

Probability (Low to High)

Con

sequ

ence

s (L

ow to

Hig

h)

Flood Map ModernizationCommunicating The EquationCommunicating The Equation

Probabilities – Fear and Uncertainty• Largely decided by Mother Nature and understood by few• Plagued with assumptions and fraught with uncertainty – “Past

performance no indication of future value”• Difficult to communicate risk through probabilities effectively

Consequences – Hope and Clarity• Largely within an individuals control

Insurance is available Evacuation plans can be developed and exercised

In communicating risk we should• Seek to understand the probabilities and unknowns• Accept the uncertainties and fact that science cannot predict the future• Resist toiling over the probabilities - they are a trap, fodder for inaction• Focus on controlling risk through action aimed at things within our

control

flood map modernization and fema levee policy february 2008 doug bellomo director, risk analysis...

Documents

modernized flood map

flood insurance policies

future risk flood maps

fema slide

federal levees private

isnt slide

accredited slide

deaccredited levees